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If ur not buying TWX ur insane

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the ...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/15/17
FRIENDLY REMINDER
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/16/17
this is still a good buy?
Hairraiser bearded quadroon
  11/16/17
Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock po...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/16/17
It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREA...
Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency
  11/16/17
do you ENDORSE this buy?
Hairraiser bearded quadroon
  11/16/17
I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this ...
Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency
  11/16/17
Thank
lemon shrine pisswyrm
  11/16/17
u fuckin fagets are missin out
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/16/17
I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds
Hairraiser bearded quadroon
  11/16/17
DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down ...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/16/17
Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with t...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/17/17
Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by th...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/21/17
Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/21/17
How can I buy stocks on coinbase
Vibrant pistol
  11/21/17
didn't even go down with yesterday's news
Drab Big Address Selfie
  11/21/17
It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/21/17
is it too late to buy?
Drab Big Address Selfie
  11/21/17
If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/21/17
In for $1000.
curious theatre stain
  11/21/17
same
sepia deer antler
  11/24/17
in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignorin...
turquoise house
  11/21/17
same
Drab Big Address Selfie
  11/21/17
Same reasoning, same amount.
flushed drunken meetinghouse
  11/21/17
Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfold...
flushed drunken meetinghouse
  11/21/17
What does exeunt say
Vibrant pistol
  11/21/17
Buy index funds
frozen mad-dog skullcap
  11/24/17
Note there are two risks here: -The main risk is the judg...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/21/17
my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.
Cruel-hearted gay school philosopher-king
  11/21/17
btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/21/17
Antitrust is voodoo magic.
curious theatre stain
  11/21/17
PREACH XO should be handicapping the odds on this like ma...
Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency
  11/21/17
CNBC just said they changed the judge
turquoise house
  11/21/17
They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/21/17
oh okay nice
turquoise house
  11/21/17
copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.
Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit
  11/21/17
did you sellcuck?
turquoise house
  11/21/17
no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last...
Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit
  11/21/17
oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse
turquoise house
  11/21/17
...
Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit
  11/24/17
welp
turquoise house
  11/27/17
What's the problem brother
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/29/17
did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill t...
Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit
  11/29/17
No it's making new highs!
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  11/29/17
Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spr...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  12/04/17
I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!
turquoise house
  12/04/17
Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical tr...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  12/04/17
If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get hav...
Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency
  12/04/17
Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  02/01/18
thank you for your good service
sepia deer antler
  02/02/18
noTWXers crying, losing hoap
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  02/02/18
long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely me...
sepia deer antler
  02/02/18
This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  02/02/18
dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice: ...
sepia deer antler
  02/20/18
...
Talking legend hell
  02/20/18
...
sepia deer antler
  02/20/18
Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking ...
filthy striped hyena rehab
  02/20/18
I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - wou...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  02/20/18
What happens now
filthy striped hyena rehab
  02/20/18
idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but i...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  02/21/18
...
Talking legend hell
  02/21/18
I HELD I LOVE YOU
filthy striped hyena rehab
  06/12/18
...
Talking legend hell
  02/20/18
...
Talking legend hell
  02/21/18
is it up big or down
turquoise house
  02/21/18
Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  02/21/18
unnnnghhhhhhhh
turquoise house
  02/21/18
The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial ...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  03/15/18
...
Talking legend hell
  03/19/18
...
Talking legend hell
  03/19/18
really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basic...
grizzly coldplay fan cuck
  03/19/18
...
Talking legend hell
  03/19/18
Arbs like this are market isolated
Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency
  03/19/18
lol jfc 10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's sti...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  03/19/18
great call actually and it's going to the moon
turquoise house
  03/19/18
when moon
sepia deer antler
  03/20/18
Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible the...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  03/20/18
ty
sepia deer antler
  03/24/18
Civ #? Ty for the info.
pale rigpig university
  03/24/18
...
Talking legend hell
  03/23/18
DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-ti...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  03/23/18
...
Talking legend hell
  03/23/18
The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, ...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  04/11/18
Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T stayin...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  04/11/18
...
Talking legend hell
  04/17/18
...
Talking legend hell
  04/26/18
...
Talking legend hell
  04/26/18
Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk ou...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  04/26/18
...
Talking legend hell
  04/26/18
Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more thoug...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  04/26/18
...
Talking legend hell
  04/26/18
The trial should be done by early next week, and from there ...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  04/26/18
...
Talking legend hell
  04/26/18
Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal br...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  04/26/18
When are you selling your TWX stock bro?
sepia deer antler
  06/13/18
I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if ...
Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency
  04/26/18
...
Talking legend hell
  04/26/18
ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case h...
Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency
  04/26/18
Fuck twx is at 91 today
filthy striped hyena rehab
  05/09/18
:(
curious theatre stain
  05/09/18
Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?
Arrogant french chef whorehouse
  05/09/18
Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt. https://www.bizjournals...
curious theatre stain
  06/04/18
Ruling this week!
sepia deer antler
  06/11/18
We maed it.
curious theatre stain
  06/12/18
YES WE CAN
sepia deer antler
  06/12/18
14% return from time op created this thread based on after h...
carmine public bath jap
  06/12/18
14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dolla...
narrow-minded free-loading state
  06/12/18
That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest becau...
Vivacious Jade Nowag Masturbator
  06/12/18
lmao Makan u faggot
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  06/12/18
how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next coupl...
filthy striped hyena rehab
  06/12/18
Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidl...
citrine razzmatazz jewess
  06/12/18
http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-s...
Vivacious Jade Nowag Masturbator
  06/13/18
when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days
sepia deer antler
  06/13/18
...
Talking legend hell
  06/13/18
Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  06/13/18
...
Talking legend hell
  06/13/18
I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't kno...
sepia deer antler
  06/13/18
...
Talking legend hell
  06/13/18
cr. Will sell now
sepia deer antler
  06/13/18
I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal close...
filthy striped hyena rehab
  06/13/18
The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.9...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  06/13/18
...
Talking legend hell
  06/13/18
T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally un...
vengeful razzle-dazzle stead
  06/13/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 15th, 2017 3:04 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the tough stance the DOJ is taking right now. $15 upside from here. Will happen within a matter of months. CONVICTION BUY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34693977)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

FRIENDLY REMINDER

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699879)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Hairraiser bearded quadroon

this is still a good buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699884)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock portion changes depending on where T falls within a certain collar, but given the current price of T it's well outside of that collar and fixed at 1.437). CONVICTION BUY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699899)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency

It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREAT price

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699882)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:35 AM
Author: Hairraiser bearded quadroon

do you ENDORSE this buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency

I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this is a good risk. If you want the upside benefit you can buy straight T stock - almost a 6% yield.

I personally think that AT&T is doing the right thing to win in the long term right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699903)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:38 AM
Author: lemon shrine pisswyrm

Thank

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699914)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

u fuckin fagets are missin out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: Hairraiser bearded quadroon

I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:55 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down on that headline. But the DOJ will almost certainly lose if they make it to court. Most likely scenario is they settle with AT&T prior to the lawsuit ever seeing court.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700043)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 17th, 2017 1:07 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with the DOJ so we can slam this bad boy shut!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34710049)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 10:59 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by the DOJ. Any lawyers poast on this board?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739080)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:01 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739091)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:02 AM
Author: Vibrant pistol

How can I buy stocks on coinbase

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739095)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: Drab Big Address Selfie

didn't even go down with yesterday's news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739105)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:06 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without seeing the complaint people were afraid they might have a strong case. Complaint looked on the weaker side when it was released. Still a binary event here with some deal risk, but most observers think the DOJ doesn't have much of a case here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739119)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: Drab Big Address Selfie

is it too late to buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739127)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:11 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from here. If the deal get blocked you're likely looking at $8-10 downside. But today's news definitely appears bullish for approval.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739154)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: curious theatre stain

In for $1000.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739107)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 6:54 AM
Author: sepia deer antler

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34760892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: turquoise house

in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignoring xo tips

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739126)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:12 AM
Author: Drab Big Address Selfie

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739158)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:22 AM
Author: flushed drunken meetinghouse

Same reasoning, same amount.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739240)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:18 AM
Author: flushed drunken meetinghouse

Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfolds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739206)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:21 AM
Author: Vibrant pistol

What does exeunt say

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739227)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:52 AM
Author: frozen mad-dog skullcap

Buy index funds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34761064)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:26 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Note there are two risks here:

-The main risk is the judge sides with the DOJ and the merger gets blocked. This seems unlikely based on precedent, the strength of the complaint, and the assigned judge, but it could happen. The DOJ could produce smoking gun internal docs showing AT&T is looking to reduce competition with this merger or some such thing, and we could go back to pre-Bork antitrust precedent. If the deal breaks TWX probably trades in the low $80s.

-This is a cash-and-stock merger, so if AT&T goes down, the stock portion of the consideration will also go down. Right now the deal terms are 1.437 shares of T plus $53.75 cash, but the stock ratio will change if AT&T rallies significantly. If you want to hedge out the T risk, you could short T shares against the TWX buy. But T has gotten pummeled lately, so it's hard to see it getting smoked much more from here.

Bottom line, if you think this merger is going through, this spread is extremely juicy. But like anything else, it's not risk-free.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:27 AM
Author: Cruel-hearted gay school philosopher-king

my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739276)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:56 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law dorks who care to take a look at this should be able to gain some insight here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739521)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 12:00 PM
Author: curious theatre stain

Antitrust is voodoo magic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739539)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency

PREACH

XO should be handicapping the odds on this like masterd00ds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34744304)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:05 PM
Author: turquoise house

CNBC just said they changed the judge

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739990)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:20 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself because his wife works for a law firm who represented T) to a GWB appointee. We were on top of this at the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740122)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: turquoise house

oh okay nice

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740131)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:09 PM
Author: Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit

copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:10 PM
Author: turquoise house

did you sellcuck?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740028)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit

no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last xo pick I ran with was Intrepid Potash.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:22 PM
Author: turquoise house

oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740146)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34764731)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 27th, 2017 1:37 PM
Author: turquoise house

welp

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34781898)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

What's the problem brother

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799548)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: Vigorous Goyim Orchestra Pit

did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill the entire market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799553)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:56 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

No it's making new highs!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799627)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:00 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spread is still super wide because T has been ripping. Will probably pull back a little bit from here (but lots of potential upside left if T wins/settles the lawsuit).



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835068)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:02 AM
Author: turquoise house

I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835076)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:03 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical trading call."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835094)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency

If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get have a very very solid yield

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835110)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35294682)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

thank you for your good service

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304774)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 11:40 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

noTWXers crying, losing hoap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304591)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely merger approval?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304769)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 3:35 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll get cash and T shares. I have no real opinion on T shares, so I'll be out upon deal closure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35307111)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 5:47 AM
Author: sepia deer antler

dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/hedge-funds-pile-into-time-warner-in-bet-on-merger-prevailing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443345)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 6:09 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443387)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:48 AM
Author: sepia deer antler



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444218)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: filthy striped hyena rehab

Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking with me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443651)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - would be very hard to justify blocking the deal given the strength in streaming services.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443663)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: filthy striped hyena rehab

What happens now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35446560)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but it's hard to see his path to success - AT&T just needs to pull up a chart of NFLX as their defense.

Some sell-side shops are saying TWX would trade above deal price if the deal broke (I don't agree), but improving fundamentals for the space can't hurt. Most likely outcome is still judge rules in favor of AT&T and the deal goes through.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453348)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:24 PM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453361)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: filthy striped hyena rehab

I HELD I LOVE YOU

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234482)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:58 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444299)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:06 PM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453210)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: turquoise house

is it up big or down

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453351)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453353)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: turquoise house

unnnnghhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453357)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:05 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial is getting delayed two days because people think a settlement is coming. It probably won't happen immediately but that doesn't change the fact that the DOJ has a pure and utter shit-tier case.

LJL at not owning this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35611951)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 9:49 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35636677)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637104)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: grizzly coldplay fan cuck

really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basically no alpha.

My longs are up 20-40% since then, mostly industrial names.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637110)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:03 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637119)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:04 AM
Author: Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency

Arbs like this are market isolated

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637123)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:05 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

lol jfc

10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's still significant upside from here. You're also not wearing the downside risk of buying industrial or tech names or whatever the hell you have in your portfolio.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637129)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:07 AM
Author: turquoise house

great call actually and it's going to the moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637134)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:35 AM
Author: sepia deer antler

when moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644755)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:52 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible they settle before then (good) or they win at trial (good) or they lose at trial (bad). First two outcomes are far more likely though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644859)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:31 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677308)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:35 PM
Author: pale rigpig university

Civ #?

Ty for the info.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677331)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:23 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668718)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-tier gaped. Thesis is looking better than ever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668762)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:35 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668770)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:22 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, is set to take the stand today. The thrust of his argument is based on the Nash equilibrium model, which is more theoretical than practical and can be easily tweaked depending on the real world assumptions one uses. Most market participants feel the DOJ has done a poor job convincing Judge Leon this merger will substantially reduce competition thus far.

We will see what unfolds!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815077)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:30 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T staying in the gutter (which was a risk outlined in the OP). The theoretical deal spread is now tighter than it's been in months.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815142)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 5:38 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35857361)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 7:33 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923066)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:46 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923224)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:48 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk outlined upthread - if you are short T you can hedge against this)

On the flip side:

“AT&T IS KILLING THEM”: THE D.O.J. SPURNED A POSSIBLE PEACE OFFERING OVER THE $86 BILLION AT&T-TIME WARNER MERGER—AND NOW THE TRIAL IS ENTERING THE ENDGAME

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/att-time-warner-merger-doj-case



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923235)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:50 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923241)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:52 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923255)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923277)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

The trial should be done by early next week, and from there the judge may take 4-6 weeks to write his opinion based on his previous comments. I expect we'll have a pretty good sense of how he'll rule before the opinion is published, but you're looking at like a June 1st-15th ruling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923339)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923349)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:42 AM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal broke, TWX probably settles higher than the deal price, but it will take time and you'd have arb selling pressure in the short term. If you're looking for a quick profit, you just want the judge to rule in AT&T's favor and the deal to get done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923499)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:46 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

When are you selling your TWX stock bro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238426)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:29 AM
Author: Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency

I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if theyre gonna win this case to buy TWX?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924107)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924117)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:34 AM
Author: Aquamarine domesticated sandwich national security agency

ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case here.

If you buy the AT&T stock right and TWX cashflow helps the company like the CEO of AT&T says it will - I think AT&T is an extremely solid long term hold for many years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924134)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: filthy striped hyena rehab

Fuck twx is at 91 today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014864)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:16 PM
Author: curious theatre stain

:(

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014997)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:02 PM
Author: Arrogant french chef whorehouse

Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014897)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 4th, 2018 3:30 PM
Author: curious theatre stain

Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2018/05/29/u-s-government-more-likely-to-win-at-t-time-warner.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36182275)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 11th, 2018 2:57 AM
Author: sepia deer antler

Ruling this week!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36221862)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:51 PM
Author: curious theatre stain

We maed it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232560)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:52 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

YES WE CAN

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232566)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: carmine public bath jap

14% return from time op created this thread based on after hours price of $101.50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:48 PM
Author: narrow-minded free-loading state

14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dollars for paltry sum

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234550)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: Vivacious Jade Nowag Masturbator

That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest because they're risk adverse lawcucks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232584)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:56 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

lmao Makan u faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232600)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:45 PM
Author: filthy striped hyena rehab

how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next couple days? i will probably sell then.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234518)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 10:38 PM
Author: citrine razzmatazz jewess

Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidly below 1yr and 5yr highs, and that dividend is juicy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234906)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: Vivacious Jade Nowag Masturbator

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-services-domestic/t-atandt/

the dividend is the only reason to own T. Just park your money there and cop dat der dividend.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36236573)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:44 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238410)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:47 PM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238434)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:48 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling pressure from arbs until 6/20, after which it will probably rally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238439)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:49 PM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238453)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:12 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't know if I should expect another 5 to 10% bump or not within the next week or so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239495)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239545)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: sepia deer antler

cr. Will sell now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239556)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: filthy striped hyena rehab

I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal closes below 100, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239519)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.90. really depends where T goes from here. Arbs were clearly underhedged going into this, but T should bounce hard either soon before the deal closes or right after.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239561)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: Talking legend hell



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: vengeful razzle-dazzle stead

T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally unforeseen given arb flows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239601)