If ur not buying TWX ur insane
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 21st, 2017 11:26 AM Author: godawful tattoo quadroon
Note there are two risks here:
-The main risk is the judge sides with the DOJ and the merger gets blocked. This seems unlikely based on precedent, the strength of the complaint, and the assigned judge, but it could happen. The DOJ could produce smoking gun internal docs showing AT&T is looking to reduce competition with this merger or some such thing, and we could go back to pre-Bork antitrust precedent. If the deal breaks TWX probably trades in the low $80s.
-This is a cash-and-stock merger, so if AT&T goes down, the stock portion of the consideration will also go down. Right now the deal terms are 1.437 shares of T plus $53.75 cash, but the stock ratio will change if AT&T rallies significantly. If you want to hedge out the T risk, you could short T shares against the TWX buy. But T has gotten pummeled lately, so it's hard to see it getting smoked much more from here.
Bottom line, if you think this merger is going through, this spread is extremely juicy. But like anything else, it's not risk-free.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739265) |
Date: March 15th, 2018 2:05 PM Author: godawful tattoo quadroon
The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial is getting delayed two days because people think a settlement is coming. It probably won't happen immediately but that doesn't change the fact that the DOJ has a pure and utter shit-tier case.
LJL at not owning this
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35611951) |
Date: March 19th, 2018 11:02 AM Author: startled stage
really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basically no alpha.
My longs are up 20-40% since then, mostly industrial names.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637110) |
Date: April 11th, 2018 10:22 AM Author: godawful tattoo quadroon
The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, is set to take the stand today. The thrust of his argument is based on the Nash equilibrium model, which is more theoretical than practical and can be easily tweaked depending on the real world assumptions one uses. Most market participants feel the DOJ has done a poor job convincing Judge Leon this merger will substantially reduce competition thus far.
We will see what unfolds!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815077) |
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Date: April 26th, 2018 8:48 AM Author: godawful tattoo quadroon
Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk outlined upthread - if you are short T you can hedge against this)
On the flip side:
“AT&T IS KILLING THEM”: THE D.O.J. SPURNED A POSSIBLE PEACE OFFERING OVER THE $86 BILLION AT&T-TIME WARNER MERGER—AND NOW THE TRIAL IS ENTERING THE ENDGAME
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/att-time-warner-merger-doj-case
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923235)
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