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Tough 2016 POTUS election trivia

Per my usual policy, I will not post the answer until Charle...
Vibrant Dead Lodge Hunting Ground
  11/20/17
Hamilton County, OH Chester County, PA Orange County, CA ...
Passionate gaping
  11/20/17
Very close and excellent analysis overall. Switch Gwinnett a...
Vibrant Dead Lodge Hunting Ground
  11/20/17
...
Vibrant Dead Lodge Hunting Ground
  11/20/17


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Date: November 20th, 2017 3:02 AM
Author: Vibrant Dead Lodge Hunting Ground

Per my usual policy, I will not post the answer until Charles XII has answered.

This one is SUPER tough. I would be shocked if anyone gets it entirely right.

Rank the following 2016 Hillary counties in order, based on her % margin of victory over Trump.

Nassau County, NY

Chester County, PA

Gwinnett County, GA

Hillsborough County, FL

Hamilton County, OH

Orange County, CA



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3803213&forum_id=2#34728936)



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Date: November 20th, 2017 3:48 AM
Author: Passionate gaping

Hamilton County, OH

Chester County, PA

Orange County, CA

Hillsborough County, FL

Gwinnett County, GA

Nassau County, NY

Reasoning: My core frame of reference here is Hillsborough County. Unlike most counties, it's been really stable from 2008-2016, going for the Dem by about 6-7 points each time (I happen to know that from parsing Romney v. Trump in that state and noticing the weird non-shift there). So, I'm thinking about how the other counties compare to it.

Hamilton is Cincy proper, so Trump is starting from a bad spot there, and I think he did worse there than Romney did. While Ohio was overall good Trump country its top-three cities are another story. I'm guessing he lost it by a good 10+ points.

Chester County is a similar deal. Philadelphia proper actually had a major pro-Trump swing (possibly the single most-interesting county swing of the election, because unlike Detroit the swing was real and not simply a drop in total votes), but the suburbs were different; most of them swung blue. Chester is Philly's outer burbs but I think it was still in that trend; I think it narrowly voted Romney in 2012. Based on that I'd guess it went to like +8 Hillary.

Similarly, Orange County was Republican for ages but every major CA county just swung massively blue. I was tempted to put it as Hillary's largest win because that would be the most interesting answer, but I just don't think that's the case; it was too red beforehand. It might be the biggest swing of any county on here, but I'm putting it third below Chester.

Hillsborough, Gwinnett, and Nassau are all pretty close so my answer is basically a guess. Like I said, Hillsborough has been really stable for the last three elections. Gwinnett is like Orange, a long-red county that swung blue hard, but it was the reddest of these six counties beforehand so it doesn't go as far. Nassau, of course, is the only county of these six that had a substantial swing TOWARD Trump.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3803213&forum_id=2#34729077)



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Date: November 20th, 2017 3:57 AM
Author: Vibrant Dead Lodge Hunting Ground

Very close and excellent analysis overall. Switch Gwinnett and Nassau, and you have the list right.

Hillary's margins are below:

Hamilton: 10.2%

Chester: 9.4%

Orange: 8.6%

Hillsborough: 6.8%

Nassau: 6.2%

Gwinnett: 5.8%

Orange had last gone Dem in 1936 when FDR won it, and Gwinnett had last gone Dem in 1976 when Carter won it. To get a sense of the shift, Bush won Orange by 20 points and Gwinnett by 32 points back in 04.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3803213&forum_id=2#34729103)



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Date: November 20th, 2017 3:18 PM
Author: Vibrant Dead Lodge Hunting Ground



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3803213&forum_id=2#34732985)