2018 Baseball Hall Of Fame Predictions
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 27th, 2017 8:01 PM Author: Lilac School Cafeteria National Security Agency
ballot here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2018.shtml
i assume hoffman and vlad eke in, and chipper maeks it on the 1st ballot
just those 3. edgar and thome dont get in.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34784954) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:58 PM Author: Filthy Whorehouse Goal In Life
McGwire is pretty borderline too even without the steroids thing.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml
Babe Ruth is #1 on this list.
Bonds is #4.
Clemens is #8.
McGwire is #161.
Sosa is #201, tied with Chuck Finley who got voted off on the first ballot.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786421) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:23 PM Author: Ocher glittery travel guidebook community account
ah, okay. that's a real argument.
however, sosa has an mvp, 3 seasons above 60 hrs, he was one of the most popular players of his era, and he has over 600 career home runs.
steroids should be none or none, imo
while i agree sosa is more like mcgwire than bonds, that still doesn't explain all of the players between sosa and bonds, such as mcgriff
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786589) |
Date: November 27th, 2017 9:04 PM Author: Filthy Whorehouse Goal In Life
Can't comprehend why Hoffman and Vlad are getting more votes than Mussina and Schilling on any rational basis.
I think this may be the year when one of Bonds/Clemens gets in actually. People seem to care less and less about punishing them - both were over 50% last year.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785516) |
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:08 PM Author: Concupiscible Den
Hoffman was not as good as Billy Wagner
This is such a fucking joke
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786471) |
Date: November 28th, 2017 10:52 AM Author: Mint haunted graveyard volcanic crater
E D G A R
D
G
A
R
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788694) |
Date: December 8th, 2017 4:09 PM Author: racy site turdskin
jfc I can't believe a HOF spot will be wasted on Trevor fucking Hoffman.
Hoffman, Vlad and Chipper all get in
Edgar, Mussina and Thome get close. Mussina and Thome def get in eventually imo. Edgar only has 1 more year on the ballot after this year so who knows. Part of me wants him out as ammo for keeping Big Sloppy out.
Very interested to see Schilling's vote total given his politics. if it doesn't track Mussina's, then you know guys are voting based on political motivations.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870378) |
Date: December 8th, 2017 4:31 PM Author: razzle school corn cake
LOL at politics and steroids completely fucking up who should be in the hall.
Sosa, Sheffield, Schilling, Mussina, Bonds, Clemens, Thome and Andruw are no brainers.
Isringhaus, Matsui and Rolen should also be in.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870537) |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 5:52 PM Author: racy site turdskin
seems like it.
Edgar and Mussina way up though.
I hope to god Hoffman never gets in, but it's inevitable.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111692) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:37 PM Author: Lilac School Cafeteria National Security Agency
tyty.
so, vlad will end up in the top 20 of all time. very odd
looks like alomar got the benefit of perhaps a weak class
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141811) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:35 PM Author: racy site turdskin
I've got:
Robbie Alomar 90.01%
Roberto Clemente 92.69%
That's the list
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141800) |
Date: January 9th, 2018 2:51 PM Author: racy site turdskin
Updated predictions
https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/950530355731329029
Looking like a 4-person class, potentially 5.
If Moose ends over 60% he'll get in eventually.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35118193) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:23 PM Author: racy site turdskin
this guy has him losing 15% on his projection
https://twitter.com/Rosscarey/status/951891157851803648
in any event i wasn't counting moose as one of the 5.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141727) |
Date: January 15th, 2018 1:48 PM Author: racy site turdskin
9 days until the announcement.
Edgar sitting at 81% for public ballots. He needs a hair over 70% on the remaining ballots to get elected. Last year his support on private ballots was -12.1%, so if that trend holds he'd be *just* out.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35160931) |
Date: January 22nd, 2018 4:13 PM Author: Filthy Whorehouse Goal In Life
Why do the voters love Vlad so much?
Walker, Rolen, and even Andruw Jones and Sheffield have higher WAR.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211562)
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:18 PM Author: racy site turdskin
announcement at 6pm today
With 242 ballots revealed/~57.1% of the vote known:
Chipper - 98%
Vlad - 95%
Thome - 93%
Hoffman - 78.9%
Edgar - 77.3%
-----
Mussina - 70.7%
BB/RC - 65%
Schilling - 60%
Walker - 38%
Vizquel - 33%
Manny - 23%
McGriff - 19%
Rolen - 12%
Andruw - 5.8%
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227507) |
Date: January 24th, 2018 6:18 PM Author: Sable swashbuckling corner
CHIPPER IN
VLAD IN
YNY
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228822) |
Date: January 24th, 2018 7:57 PM Author: maroon therapy Subject: for when these faggots put that POS Ortiz in w/out hesitation
Career fWAR: Edgar - 65.5, Ortiz - 46.1
Career bWAR: Edgar - 68.3, Ortiz - 50.4
Career wRC+: Edgar - 147, Ortiz - 138
Career OPS+: Edgar - 147, Ortiz - 141
% of games at DH: Edgar - 70.3, Ortiz - 87.2
Times reaching base: Edgar - 3,979, Ortiz - 4038
Career PA: Edgar - 8674, Ortiz - 10091
Career OBP: Edgar - .418, Ortiz - .378
Years with .400+ OPB: Edgar - 11, Ortiz - 3
Years with .450+ OBP: Edgar - 3, Ortiz - 0
Batting titles: Edgar - 2, Ortiz - 0
7 yr Peak WAR: Edgar - 43.6, Ortiz - 35
PED taint: Edgar - 0, Ortiz - ljl
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229645) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:07 AM Author: racy site turdskin
agreed.
take a look at this: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml
Hoffman has the 2nd lowest career WAR (28.4) of any player elected EVER, BY ANY METHOD. #227/228. And the guys at # 226 and 228 both played pre-war and were elected via the Veteran's committee.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233501) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:22 AM Author: Filthy Whorehouse Goal In Life
Lmao at the guys above him
Kevin Seitzer
Edgardo Alfonzo
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233606) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:25 AM Author: racy site turdskin
I mean, that is insane.
To compare, Mariano has I believe 56 WAR, which is a little low for the HOF but well within the ballpark.
Even Goose Gossage has 40+ WAR.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233616) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:34 AM Author: racy site turdskin
I actually think the better comparison is with Mussina and Schilling.
How on Earth can someone vote for Hoffman but not Mussina/Schilling?
Hell, I'd vote for Santana over Hoffman. He was possibly the best pitcher in baseball over a 5-year period, and injuries robbed him of a surefire HOF career.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234100) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Iridescent Electric Furnace
No one seems to care that almost all elite closers (including Rivera) failed as starters. And closers make so much cash now, there’s really not that much incentive for a guy who’s struggling with starting to stick with it if he has stuff to be a good reliever (look at chapman who seemed to half ass his starting career).
Next year will be interesting. Rivera should sail in. Next big name is Hallady, who might get that post mortem bump (and had a better/more prominent peak that Mussina). Helton has decent numbers but between coors and his career basically ending at 33 will probably not get much traction. Pettites a borderline guy; wonder how the voters will weigh the HGH stuff against the championships.
Edgar, Mussina, Rivera seems like likely scenario.
Looking even further ahead, there’s Jeter in 2020 and no shooins in 2021 so will be interesting to see how things shake out. Also incredibly depressing to see David Wright listed on the 2022 hypo ballot at b-ref
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234275) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 12:11 PM Author: racy site turdskin
I don't think it's so much that closers (or relievers in general) maybe failed as starters, because i think each has a purpose, but a reliever has to give you value.
Rivera clearly gave the Yankees a TON of value, and his advanced stats confirm that.
Hoffman, not so much.
I think Mussina has to wait another year. Next year is probably Edgar and Rivera, with 2020 featuring Jeter, Mussina, and Halladay.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234428) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:12 PM Author: Concupiscible Den
Well billy Wagner gets almost no votes and is clearly as good as Hoffman
2.3 era compared to 2.9 era and Hoffman is in a pitcher friendly ballpark most of his career
Same WAR too
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235004) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:16 PM Author: racy site turdskin
well isn't that the point of comparing him to Rivera?
Rivera is by far the greatest reliever ever, and by advanced stats he's a below average hall of famer.
so art of the analysis is that, if you accept relievers into the HOF, you have to understand that, by advances stats, they will almost always be among the least qualified of all players so enshrined.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235597) |
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