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2018 Baseball Hall Of Fame Predictions
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Date: November 27th, 2017 8:01 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor ballot here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2018.shtml
i assume hoffman and vlad eke in, and chipper maeks it on the 1st ballot
just those 3. edgar and thome dont get in. |
Date: November 27th, 2017 8:08 PM Author: bearded odious selfie public bath why is sosa getting shit on so much compared to bonds and clemens? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785034) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 8:30 PM Author: Topaz hospital mood They were HOF without roids, he was shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785289) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:32 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor i fail to see the logic in this. how was sosa "shit"? he's closer to bonds and mac than an average steriod era guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786259) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:58 PM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond McGwire is pretty borderline too even without the steroids thing.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml
Babe Ruth is #1 on this list. Bonds is #4. Clemens is #8. McGwire is #161. Sosa is #201, tied with Chuck Finley who got voted off on the first ballot. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:24 AM Author: Free-loading slimy main people bbw tbf chuck finley was also roided to hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233219) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 8:31 PM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression b/c bonds and clemens were historically good and sosa wasn't (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785291) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:34 PM Author: bearded odious selfie public bath lol. this is the guess? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786277) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:49 PM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression ? sosa has fairly pedestrian numbers for a hall of famer all things considered. at 58.4 career war he’s tied with chuck finley for 201st all-time and behind guys like mark buehrle and tim hudson. he's obviously very deserving of consideration but being conservative clemens is one of the top 20 players ever and bonds is top 5. the effect of steroids on hof candidacy doesn’t have to be all-or-none and i don’t think it will be. it'll just act as a very significant negative on a resume. lesser candidates like palmeiro and sosa and mcgwire will see or have seen their candidacy lapse instead of getting in on like the 3rd or 4th or 6th ballot or something, for bonds and clemens it will drop them from unanimous first-ballot status to getting in somewhere between years 8-10. down the line the other steroid guys might get in through the veterans committee or something but as with bonds and clemens the effect of steroids on their resumes will be that they’re treated and voted in as though they were much lesser candidates than they actually were wrt their numbers. |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:23 PM Author: bearded odious selfie public bath ah, okay. that's a real argument. however, sosa has an mvp, 3 seasons above 60 hrs, he was one of the most popular players of his era, and he has over 600 career home runs. steroids should be none or none, imo while i agree sosa is more like mcgwire than bonds, that still doesn't explain all of the players between sosa and bonds, such as mcgriff |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:30 PM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression mcgriff is below sosa on every metric if we're ignoring steroids
if not, mcgriff just wasn't particularly stand-out for his generation. again if you look at WAR and JAWS and shit for mcgriff he's solidly among the group of very good but not hof first basemen. |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 8:30 PM Author: Topaz hospital mood Hoff, Vlad, Chipper, Thome, Vizquel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785283) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 9:04 PM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond Can't comprehend why Hoffman and Vlad are getting more votes than Mussina and Schilling on any rational basis.
I think this may be the year when one of Bonds/Clemens gets in actually. People seem to care less and less about punishing them - both were over 50% last year. |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 9:15 PM Author: low-t space hoffman is a fucking joke. Mariano is the only recent reliever i would consider putting in the hall. the fact is these dudes are failed starters who add relatively little value and could be replaced in a heartbeat by almost any decent starter. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785571) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:28 PM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786231) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:29 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786239) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 10:35 PM Author: bearded odious selfie public bath leans into mic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786289) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 11:04 AM Author: sepia principal's office black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788779) |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:28 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870515) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 12:20 AM Author: fishy floppy goal in life Schilling should be in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34787013) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 6:15 PM Author: salmon dilemma 10000% right (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34792523) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 9:29 PM Author: Sooty hunting ground Thome is a shoe-in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785672) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 9:30 PM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785680) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:57 PM Author: tan doobsian chapel deer antler *Shoe-inn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229155) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 9:31 PM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression lol thome is the surest thing on this ballot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785684) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 9:43 PM Author: low-t space Chipper (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785777) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 9:45 PM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression think they'll get similar % (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785799) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 12:43 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle cruise ship wtf. Was Thome ever one of the best 10 players in beisbol?Seems like its just a participation award if he gets in on the first ballot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34787138) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 12:53 AM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression yes he was. had four top 10 mvp finishes, led league in ops once and finished in top five of ops seven times
loses some value for playing first base and gets overlooked a bit b/c he was a power hitter in an era full of power hitters but his full body of work is as good as pretty much any of them. compare his numbers to frank thomas'. |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 1:13 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle cruise ship 4 bottom of top 10 finishes, so with pitchers, he probably wasn't one of the top 10 players in the MLB's in any of his seasons. Only one Silver Slugger, and a terrible fielder and baserunner to boot. Basically just a pretty good hitter who played for a long time in an offensive juggernaut era.
And how the fuk is this guy not suspected of roiding? All of his best years were during the peak era. |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 6:06 PM Author: Anal Erotic Clown Indirect Expression he finished fourth in 2003, sixth in 1997
i agree that he wasn't *the* dominant power hitter of his time but that's not the standard for the hof. compare his stats to frank thomas, eddie murray, willie mccovey, rafael palmeiro (who'd be in the hof without the steroid shit). 9th highest career WAR all-time among first basemen too. he's not a "slam dunk" in the sense that someone like griffey was but by the hall's standards he's right there. |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:20 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle cruise ship LOL. Frank Thomas won TWO MVP's and was the most feared hitter in beisbol for 5+ years. Eddie didn't win any MVP's but had a similar 5 year stretch. Just because their power numbers are similar is meaningless.
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:08 PM Author: vermilion spectacular hall Hoffman was not as good as Billy Wagner
This is such a fucking joke |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:38 PM Author: Cheese-eating site digit ratio Vizquel is on there? What year is this for him? That dude doesn't pass the smell test. Vizquel as a HOFer sounds ridiculous. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786710) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:42 PM Author: Opaque Cracking Karate Vizquel is a much better hitter than you remember, and he was one of the best and most exciting defenders in the 90s. I think he'll show very well bc he wasn't a roided out freak (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786743) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:50 PM Author: low-t space he wasn't all that valuable, certainly not by HOF measures. But he was remarkable to watch in the infield. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786807) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:54 PM Author: Cheese-eating site digit ratio I looked at his stats. Dude they're so whatever. 688 OPS. That sucks. Some steals I guess. 688 OPS is garbage and this is HOF talk. I guess my point is because of shot like that he doesn't pass the smell test. His defense was great. Not enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786838) |
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Date: November 27th, 2017 11:59 PM Author: Opaque Cracking Karate All's I'm saying is retarded writers will say "Omar? Ha, all glove no bat!" Then they'll be drinking at the bar and someone will say "actually he was a career .280 hitter with 2,800+ hits" and this voter will say "huh, yeah and he was doing it THE RIGHT WAY without steroids!!" And vote for him in part as a protest against the Sosas on the ballot. Prob not enough to get him to 75% but I think he'll vastly outperform. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786886) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 12:04 AM Author: Cheese-eating site digit ratio what year is vizquel in? year one? i don't think i've heard his name in hof conversations before. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786928) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 10:45 AM Author: vermilion spectacular hall He has a ton of golden gloves (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788662) |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:21 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle cruise ship he has zero chance (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870470) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 12:12 AM Author: Maniacal Pink Theatre Sheffield is getting in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786960) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 10:46 AM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond No way (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788667) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 10:47 AM Author: vermilion spectacular hall He has steroid issues and isn't as good as bonds (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788671) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 10:50 AM Author: boyish frisky depressive and was a grouch to the chubby white sportswriter set which is a death sentence for HOF (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788684) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 10:52 AM Author: marvelous snowy prole bawdyhouse E D G A R D G A R |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 10:56 AM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond Larry Walker deserves to get in but he won't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788730) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 10:59 AM Author: low-t space he's kind of a fag, and played all those years in Coors. He really was an excellent all-around player though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788751) |
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Date: November 28th, 2017 11:03 AM Author: sepia principal's office black woman Bonds, Clemens, Guerrero get my vote (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788773) |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:09 PM Author: salmon dilemma jfc I can't believe a HOF spot will be wasted on Trevor fucking Hoffman.
Hoffman, Vlad and Chipper all get in
Edgar, Mussina and Thome get close. Mussina and Thome def get in eventually imo. Edgar only has 1 more year on the ballot after this year so who knows. Part of me wants him out as ammo for keeping Big Sloppy out.
Very interested to see Schilling's vote total given his politics. if it doesn't track Mussina's, then you know guys are voting based on political motivations. |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:26 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm edgar not getting in while a shithead rp like hoffman does is some bullshit http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/edgar-martinez-hall-of-fame-vote-ballot-stats-seattle-mariners-greatest-dh-designated-hitters/1dwopulzkbw2d14uikwv9k69ld (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870511) |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:31 PM Author: Alcoholic twisted range LOL at politics and steroids completely fucking up who should be in the hall.
Sosa, Sheffield, Schilling, Mussina, Bonds, Clemens, Thome and Andruw are no brainers.
Isringhaus, Matsui and Rolen should also be in. |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:45 PM Author: low-t space What about Manny? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870646) |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:44 PM Author: Glassy Jap Chipper, Thome, and Hoffman get in. Vlad probably sneaks in too. PED suspects continue to get no breakfast. Rolen and Andruw Jones get in sometime in next three years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870638) |
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Date: December 8th, 2017 4:50 PM Author: salmon dilemma just lol if Hoffman, Rolen and Andruw Jones get in and Mussina and Schilling do not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870687) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:58 PM Author: contagious primrose juggernaut No way Andruw Jones gets in, ever... he only finished above 8th in the MVP voting once and his last good year was at 29. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211427) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:59 PM Author: salmon dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211435) |
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Date: December 11th, 2017 2:40 PM Author: salmon dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34891365) |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 5:46 PM Author: salmon dilemma Updated voting:
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 5:51 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor so bonds and clemens arent getting any traction this year? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111680) |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 5:52 PM Author: salmon dilemma seems like it.
Edgar and Mussina way up though.
I hope to god Hoffman never gets in, but it's inevitable. |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 5:55 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor weird if vlad goes from 70 to ~95%.
has a non-1st time guy ever got 90+%? |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 6:00 PM Author: salmon dilemma not sure, but now that you mention it that's an interesting jump. probably some group of writers who didn't vote him in solely cause it was his first year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111744) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:27 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor still cant find an answer for this. very curious (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141755) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:32 PM Author: salmon dilemma I'm comparing lists now starting with 90%
https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/First_Ballot_Hall_of_Famer
https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Hall_of_Fame_Voting_Percentages
Robbie Alomar got 90.01% and was not a first ballot guy
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:37 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor tyty.
so, vlad will end up in the top 20 of all time. very odd
looks like alomar got the benefit of perhaps a weak class |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:46 PM Author: salmon dilemma no he's projected at 90%. he won't stay at his public ballot number (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141889) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:35 PM Author: salmon dilemma I've got:
Robbie Alomar 90.01%
Roberto Clemente 92.69%
That's the list |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:53 PM Author: salmon dilemma >> Meanwhile, Guerrero has a shot at two distinctions. He could surpass Roberto Alomar's 90.0% (from 2011) for the highest share received by a second-year candidate, and he could become just the second post-1966 candidate to gain more than 20 points in a single cycle while crossing the 75% threshold, after Barry Larkin (from 62.1% in 2011 to 86.4% in ’12). In theory, Martinez could join that company if he receives at least 78.6%, but his odds of doing so appear exceedingly slim. <<
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/23/hall-fame-chipper-jones-jim-thome-vladimir-guerrero-trevor-hoffman |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 6:01 PM Author: low-t space Rolen should be getting more votes than Omar Vizquel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111754) |
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Date: January 8th, 2018 6:06 PM Author: salmon dilemma 100% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111798) |
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Date: January 9th, 2018 2:51 PM Author: salmon dilemma Updated predictions
https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/950530355731329029
Looking like a 4-person class, potentially 5.
If Moose ends over 60% he'll get in eventually. |
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Date: January 11th, 2018 11:57 PM Author: salmon dilemma ~43% of the ballot is projected to be in
looking like it may be a 5-person class
Mike Mussina at almost 74% |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:22 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor mussina was -7.2% actual vs pre last year. doesnt look like he's getting in if you follow that trend. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141721) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:23 PM Author: salmon dilemma this guy has him losing 15% on his projection
https://twitter.com/Rosscarey/status/951891157851803648
in any event i wasn't counting moose as one of the 5. |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:23 PM Author: low-t space Vamos Moose Vamos! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141731) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:28 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141763) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:32 PM Author: salmon dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141784) |
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Date: January 12th, 2018 3:44 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141871) |
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Date: January 15th, 2018 1:48 PM Author: salmon dilemma 9 days until the announcement.
Edgar sitting at 81% for public ballots. He needs a hair over 70% on the remaining ballots to get elected. Last year his support on private ballots was -12.1%, so if that trend holds he'd be *just* out. |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:30 PM Author: salmon dilemma https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw
Moose isn't gonna maek it :(
Edgar and Hoffman are like coin flips, but i hope both get off the ballot this year to make space.
anyone want to weigh win on why voters prefer Edgar to Larry Walker? |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:31 PM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig Coors Field and Edgar was 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211193) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:31 PM Author: salmon dilemma but isn;t that factored into OPS+/WAR? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211198) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:32 PM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig sure if you're a fucking nerd (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211209) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:35 PM Author: salmon dilemma the two seem pretty equivalent to me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211243) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:36 PM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig probably, probably
I was a Mariners fan though and Edgar was 180 |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:38 PM Author: salmon dilemma I'm not suggesting Edgar is out. I think Edgar is in and I hope he gets in this year.
I just think it's hard to keep Walker out if you vote in Edgar. |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:41 PM Author: bespoke pit cuckoldry Larry Walker better go in as a Rockie because DAT FIELD is the real MVP, not him. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211294) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:42 PM Author: salmon dilemma right, but again, that is taken into account by OPS+, WAA, and WAR, and they are neck and neck by those metrics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211309) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 3:57 PM Author: aromatic round eye whorehouse I think Edgar’s narrative has grown stronger over time; no dhs in the hall, he’s “clean”, etc.
In addition to the coors problem, Walker has a pretty significant war boost from fielding/running, which is always a tough case to make unless you were recognized as a star in those areas at the time |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:48 PM Author: low-t space IIRC, he was a gold glove RF who racked up a lot of assists but his defensive WAR isn't actually very good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219238) |
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 4:13 PM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond Why do the voters love Vlad so much?
Walker, Rolen, and even Andruw Jones and Sheffield have higher WAR.
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Date: January 22nd, 2018 4:15 PM Author: salmon dilemma .318 career BA, MVP, top 4 in MVP voting 4 times
also, isn't there a lack of 3B in the hall? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:19 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor 1 day to go. hoffman still way above edgar (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219026) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:27 PM Author: salmon dilemma edgar lost like 3% in the last couple days. brutal. i think that means he'll likely be out, which is too bad bc we need to clear as much space as possible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219090) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:41 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor he needs to leave (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219195) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:43 PM Author: salmon dilemma any thought on why Edgar is getting so much more love than Walker? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219213) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:54 PM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig JFC. FAGGIT VOTERS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219292) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2018 3:55 PM Author: salmon dilemma i think Edgar should be in and Hoffman shouldn't sniff the HOF, but at this point I just want both to get it to clear ballot space. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219303) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:18 PM Author: salmon dilemma announcement at 6pm today
With 242 ballots revealed/~57.1% of the vote known: Chipper - 98% Vlad - 95% Thome - 93% Hoffman - 78.9% Edgar - 77.3% ----- Mussina - 70.7% BB/RC - 65% Schilling - 60% Walker - 38% Vizquel - 33% Manny - 23% McGriff - 19% Rolen - 12% Andruw - 5.8% |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:26 PM Author: rusted sanctuary Hope Edgar makes it. That dude was so money (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227557) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:27 PM Author: salmon dilemma so do i. he's worthy and we need to clear some space on the ballot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227563) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:28 PM Author: appetizing confused cumskin Pitching the equivalent of 12 starts a season shouldn’t be Hall-worthy. HTH! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227569) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:33 PM Author: vermilion spectacular hall Billy Wagner is way better than Hoffman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227620) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:35 PM Author: appetizing confused cumskin Relievers need to be exceptional, not just long careers, to be worth consideration. Kent Tekulve has a better case for inclusion than those who just racked up cheap saves. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227645) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 3:37 PM Author: salmon dilemma i agree, but what makes no sense to me is the disparity in support between Hoffman and Wagner. They were essentially the same player. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227660) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:19 PM Author: vermilion spectacular hall Except Wagner was actually way better (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228838) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 10:09 PM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230822) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 5:58 PM Author: salmon dilemma Here we goooooo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228695) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:12 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor where can this be watched w/o fraud mlbtv? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228780) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:12 PM Author: rusted sanctuary Mlb twitter account has a livestream tweet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228784) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:18 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor ty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228819) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:13 PM Author: salmon dilemma https://www.mlb.com/video/mlbn-simulcast-hof-election/c-1872820383?tid=7417714 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228789) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:18 PM Author: salmon dilemma CHIPPER (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228820) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:18 PM Author: fragrant slap-happy box office CHIPPER IN VLAD IN YNY |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:18 PM Author: salmon dilemma VLAD (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228825) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:19 PM Author: salmon dilemma THOME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228833) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:19 PM Author: fragrant slap-happy box office THOME! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228834) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:19 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor fuck hoffman. he's in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228843) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:20 PM Author: fragrant slap-happy box office lol what a joke hoffman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228848) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:40 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229018) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:20 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor edgar is out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228850) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:59 PM Author: tan doobsian chapel deer antler This is some god damn motherfucking bullshit is what it is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229169) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:20 PM Author: salmon dilemma does hoffman have the lowest WAR of any recent inductee? He has like 28 WAR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228852) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:20 PM Author: fragrant slap-happy box office EDGAR GOT FUCT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228853) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:39 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229015) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:21 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor edgar at 70.4. 19 votes short (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228859) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:24 PM Author: salmon dilemma edgar must have really lost a lot in the private ballots to lose 7%+ in only 40% private ballots (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228884) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:27 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor lawyerbird getting his revenge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228916) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:22 PM Author: salmon dilemma lmao at Vizquel at 37 percent in his first year! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228871) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:23 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor he can maek it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228874) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:24 PM Author: salmon dilemma ugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228892) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:10 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor moose started w 20% his first year (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229771) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 9:41 PM Author: salmon dilemma I want Vizquel to be OUT, no way is that guy a hall of famer. You're telling me he'd go in and guys like Rolen, Kent, Walker would be out? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230552) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 10:00 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm vizquel was an incredible ss but he doesn't belong in the hof. rolen, compared to the avg hof 3B, totally belongs. walker is a borderline guy who probably got a bigger numbers boost playing in coors than any ped bro did from his enhancer of choice. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230745) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:24 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor mussina looks like he'll make it soon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228895) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:25 PM Author: salmon dilemma 180 i have been trolling for him for years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228903) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:27 PM Author: low-t space same. my favorite pitcher since I was a kid. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228914) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:31 PM Author: salmon dilemma 180!
I really wanted him to hang around to get 300 wins. |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:54 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm mine was pettitte but loved moose's style too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229136) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:27 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor i still dont know how you explain vlad not getting in 1st ballot but getting 92% this time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228919) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:28 PM Author: low-t space because it's 2018 bigot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228927) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:36 PM Author: fragrant slap-happy box office ballot was backlogged and a lot of people sacrificed him assuming he'd get in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228992) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 7:10 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor who were they voting for? how are writers voting for 10 guys last year and one of them is not vlad? on this list how do you have vlad 11th AND think 10 guys are HOF worthy
https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2017.shtml |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:37 PM Author: Red Multi-colored Stag Film Hairy Legs A lot of writers are retarded boomer faggots who won't vote for first ballot candidates (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230014) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:39 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor i don't this this is a good answer. chipper was on all but 12 ballots (410/422) and he's no griffey or cal ripken jr. only a few boomer fags will ding a guy just for being 1st ballot. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230040) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:29 AM Author: low-t space or for being a redneck waitress-banging trumpmo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233254) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:34 AM Author: low-t space Chipper is absolutely in the same league as those guys statistically (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233286) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:21 AM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor chipper is ~ top 10 GOAT? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234008) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:25 AM Author: salmon dilemma he's not top 10 GOAT, but imo you're looking at voting % the wrong way.
you can't evaluate completely different sets of voters and then treat single-digit differences in ballot % as though they are super meaningful. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:33 AM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor i suppose i am, but there's prestige in being a near unanimous selection or putting up a very high number.
and i think we can look at the voting % to learn something about the voters themselves. chipper being on all but 12 ballots, and a guy like wade boggs getting in at around 90%? either it's experimental error, or voters are less strict now. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:37 AM Author: salmon dilemma i agree. i just think saying "chipper is top 10 all time in voting percentage" isn't the right way to look at it.
more like, how could 10% of writers NOT vote for Wade Boggs? |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:40 AM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor i bet a bunch of old pre-boomer purists are dying off and the shitboomer writers are more liberal with their votes than the previous generation of voters. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234168) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:58 PM Author: low-t space No, but neither is Griffey or Ripken. Griffey was my favorite player, and like half of other 90s kid's favorite player, but he wasn't actually as great as he looked. He just did everything with so much flair and excitement. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235425) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:06 PM Author: salmon dilemma lol, i, of course, hated Griffey as a kid and thought he was overrated bc of the flair and excitement (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235500) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:09 PM Author: low-t space (autistic kid with Ti-83 calculating range factor and park adjusted OPS) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235520) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:10 PM Author: salmon dilemma lol i am nowhere near that much of an autist (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235534) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:14 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235568) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:16 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235595) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:47 PM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig Fuck these fraud kike "voters" who wheeze nasally about "positional value." Would happily nut stomp one of these faggots if I saw them walking down the street and I'd be surprised if other people didn't join in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229067) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:54 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229140) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 7:57 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm Subject: for when these faggots put that POS Ortiz in w/out hesitation Career fWAR: Edgar - 65.5, Ortiz - 46.1
Career bWAR: Edgar - 68.3, Ortiz - 50.4
Career wRC+: Edgar - 147, Ortiz - 138
Career OPS+: Edgar - 147, Ortiz - 141
% of games at DH: Edgar - 70.3, Ortiz - 87.2
Times reaching base: Edgar - 3,979, Ortiz - 4038
Career PA: Edgar - 8674, Ortiz - 10091
Career OBP: Edgar - .418, Ortiz - .378
Years with .400+ OPB: Edgar - 11, Ortiz - 3
Years with .450+ OBP: Edgar - 3, Ortiz - 0
Batting titles: Edgar - 2, Ortiz - 0
7 yr Peak WAR: Edgar - 43.6, Ortiz - 35
PED taint: Edgar - 0, Ortiz - ljl |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:26 PM Author: salmon dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229916) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:22 AM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig This is absolutely devastating
FAGGOT HOF VOTERS, YOUR RESPONSE?? |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:32 AM Author: rusted sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233277) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:11 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor guyz what's the lowest 1st year vote % for someone who eventually maed it? moose got 20% his first year. would that be the lowest ever if he maeks it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229776) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 9:34 PM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond Blyleven got 17.5 his first year. 14.1 his second. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230501) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 10:01 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor woah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230761) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 10:04 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm bbbbut no thy young the bbwaa boomer cuck lisped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230780) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:13 PM Author: sepia principal's office black woman everyone who doesnt vote for bonds should have their ballot privilege withdrawn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229796) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:14 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor sup barry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229810) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 8:33 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle cruise ship Jim Thome getting in with almost 90% of the vote is absurd. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229985) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 10:09 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm mfcr. 0 t3 mvp seasons, 1 t5. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230818) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 10:13 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor chipper w 97.2% and in the top 10 of all time is also absurd to me. i think we're seeing FEWER shitboomers voting against guys bc they're 1st ballot guys, so it's hard to compare results across time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230864) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 10:14 PM Author: sepia principal's office black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230874) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:27 AM Author: Free-loading slimy main people bbw 600 hrs, career .956 OPS, could still hit even at 41 and probably could have played another three years if he wanted to. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233246) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 9:38 PM Author: Adulterous Tank Hell xo Chipper Jones; Vlad; Trevor Hoffman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35230527) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:27 AM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond Hoffman is one of the worst selections ever (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233242) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:27 AM Author: Bonkers bull headed antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233249) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:28 AM Author: Free-loading slimy main people bbw agreed, having him in there and bonds / Clemens / mussina / edgar out is absurd.
Relievers are the big thing now so he's benefitting from that. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:32 AM Author: rusted sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233273) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 9:38 AM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233313) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:07 AM Author: salmon dilemma agreed.
take a look at this: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml
Hoffman has the 2nd lowest career WAR (28.4) of any player elected EVER, BY ANY METHOD. #227/228. And the guys at # 226 and 228 both played pre-war and were elected via the Veteran's committee. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:22 AM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond Lmao at the guys above him
Kevin Seitzer Edgardo Alfonzo |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:25 AM Author: salmon dilemma I mean, that is insane.
To compare, Mariano has I believe 56 WAR, which is a little low for the HOF but well within the ballpark.
Even Goose Gossage has 40+ WAR. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:41 AM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond Yeah the only one who really compares was Sutter (24.5), also a terrible selection, although even he at least had 3 years better than Hoffman's best year.
It's funny to look at Eckersley who everyone remembers as a closer - almost 3/4 of his career WAR came from his years as a starter. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:59 AM Author: salmon dilemma shit you know what i just realized, the WAR leaders list is only the top 1000 players, so sutter isn't on it. now i'm not sure where hoffman is exactly, though he is likely still in the bottom 10.
Sutter is brutal. 10 WAA? that is laughably bad. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 10:42 AM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig Had no idea Mariano was so high. That's insane for a reliever. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233718) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:06 AM Author: salmon dilemma Mariano could honestly get 100% of the votes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35233906) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:24 AM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor playing devil's advocate here and i think closers are overrated... but is there any legit argument that WAR isn't a fair stat by which to measure a closer? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234027) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:27 AM Author: salmon dilemma sure. i think you could say they are so highly specialized that they lack the ability to accrue additional WAR.
but even at that < 30 is really low. some stat head can probably come up with a way to "normalize" WAR for closers. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:11 PM Author: At-the-ready up-to-no-good community account generalized bond With a few exceptions (maybe even just one exception: Mariano Rivera), relievers are just failed starting pitchers. If they were better, they'd be starters and pitch more innings and accumulate more WAR.
So being "fair" to them would be like being "fair" to platoon players or pinch hitters that also have a specialized role, but really they don't play as much because they're not as good as everyday players. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:53 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm dat nigga babe ruf pitched more innings dan dis nigga hoffman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235374) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:31 AM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig There exist people in the world who voted for Hoffman and did not vote for Edgar. Let that sink in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234081) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:34 AM Author: salmon dilemma I actually think the better comparison is with Mussina and Schilling.
How on Earth can someone vote for Hoffman but not Mussina/Schilling?
Hell, I'd vote for Santana over Hoffman. He was possibly the best pitcher in baseball over a 5-year period, and injuries robbed him of a surefire HOF career. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:35 AM Author: pungent rambunctious haunted graveyard pozpig I'm just MAF about Edgar getting shafted again (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234108) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:37 AM Author: salmon dilemma he'll get in next year (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234140) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: aromatic round eye whorehouse No one seems to care that almost all elite closers (including Rivera) failed as starters. And closers make so much cash now, there’s really not that much incentive for a guy who’s struggling with starting to stick with it if he has stuff to be a good reliever (look at chapman who seemed to half ass his starting career).
Next year will be interesting. Rivera should sail in. Next big name is Hallady, who might get that post mortem bump (and had a better/more prominent peak that Mussina). Helton has decent numbers but between coors and his career basically ending at 33 will probably not get much traction. Pettites a borderline guy; wonder how the voters will weigh the HGH stuff against the championships.
Edgar, Mussina, Rivera seems like likely scenario.
Looking even further ahead, there’s Jeter in 2020 and no shooins in 2021 so will be interesting to see how things shake out. Also incredibly depressing to see David Wright listed on the 2022 hypo ballot at b-ref |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 12:11 PM Author: salmon dilemma I don't think it's so much that closers (or relievers in general) maybe failed as starters, because i think each has a purpose, but a reliever has to give you value.
Rivera clearly gave the Yankees a TON of value, and his advanced stats confirm that.
Hoffman, not so much.
I think Mussina has to wait another year. Next year is probably Edgar and Rivera, with 2020 featuring Jeter, Mussina, and Halladay. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 12:59 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle cruise ship Jesus, Hoffman had a career WAR of 28. Rivera was double that.
Hoffman and Thome getting in first ballot is insane. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:02 PM Author: salmon dilemma I'm not so concerned about 1st ballot. Thome has 72 WAR and an OPS+ of 147. Combine that with 600+ home runs and being a truly standout human being, and he was getting in no matter what.
I'd really love to pick the brains of writers on the Hoffman selection though. In particular, I'd love to ask them to make his case without mentioning his number of saves. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:08 PM Author: aromatic round eye whorehouse Hoffman was third ballot. Crazy story is vlad going from 72 percent on first ballot to 93 on second ballot. Hoffman went 67, 74, 80 in comparison.
Thome also has a career obp of 402 which is pretty elite. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:09 PM Author: salmon dilemma yeah DBG and I discussed Vlad's jump above. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234976) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:10 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor How is the argument against Hoffman that Rivera was much better? I don't think Hoffman should get in but why compare him to the goat closer? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35234984) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:12 PM Author: vermilion spectacular hall Well billy Wagner gets almost no votes and is clearly as good as Hoffman
2.3 era compared to 2.9 era and Hoffman is in a pitcher friendly ballpark most of his career
Same WAR too |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:16 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor That's a better argument. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235021) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:16 PM Author: salmon dilemma well, it's not just that Rivera was much better, it's that Rivera's advanced stats compare favorably with other HOF players. Hoffman's do not.
Rivera also has an ungodly amount of post-season success. You may say that Hoffman didn't get that same chance, but, well, here we are. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 1:25 PM Author: Adventurous roast beef rigor I guess my point is you should compare Hoffman to other closers who are on the cusp, not to Rivera. Either closers are all TTT and not allowed into the hall except on special occasion or you get the best few of each era into the hall. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235102) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:16 PM Author: salmon dilemma well isn't that the point of comparing him to Rivera?
Rivera is by far the greatest reliever ever, and by advanced stats he's a below average hall of famer.
so art of the analysis is that, if you accept relievers into the HOF, you have to understand that, by advances stats, they will almost always be among the least qualified of all players so enshrined. |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:26 PM Author: aromatic round eye whorehouse It’s a variation on the “small hall” vs. “big hall” debate. Rivera would be in a small hall but Hoffman wouldn’t. You can argue that Hoffman should be in a big hall, but it’s going to be a similar argument to a lot of guys like Wagner, Lee Smith, Quissenberry, etc. who have not gotten that close. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235725) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:27 PM Author: salmon dilemma oh, see i feel like i'm almost arguing that Rivera IS big hall, and that most relievers shouldn't sniff cooperstown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235738) |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:33 PM Author: hairraiser umber pisswyrm a First Ballot HOFer should be in the small hall.
hoffman's peak 7yr WAR is in the 19s. a legitimate First Ballot inductee has 50%+ that in one season. awful |
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Date: January 25th, 2018 2:34 PM Author: salmon dilemma cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35235801) |