i assume hoffman and vlad eke in, and chipper maeks it on the 1st ballot

just those 3. edgar and thome dont get in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34784954)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

Babe Ruth is #1 on this list.

Bonds is #4.

Clemens is #8.

McGwire is #161.

Sosa is #201, tied with Chuck Finley who got voted off on the first ballot.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786421)

sosa has fairly pedestrian numbers for a hall of famer all things considered. at 58.4 career war he’s tied with chuck finley for 201st all-time and behind guys like mark buehrle and tim hudson. he's obviously very deserving of consideration but being conservative clemens is one of the top 20 players ever and bonds is top 5.

the effect of steroids on hof candidacy doesn’t have to be all-or-none and i don’t think it will be. it'll just act as a very significant negative on a resume. lesser candidates like palmeiro and sosa and mcgwire will see or have seen their candidacy lapse instead of getting in on like the 3rd or 4th or 6th ballot or something, for bonds and clemens it will drop them from unanimous first-ballot status to getting in somewhere between years 8-10. down the line the other steroid guys might get in through the veterans committee or something but as with bonds and clemens the effect of steroids on their resumes will be that they’re treated and voted in as though they were much lesser candidates than they actually were wrt their numbers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786378)

however, sosa has an mvp, 3 seasons above 60 hrs, he was one of the most popular players of his era, and he has over 600 career home runs.

steroids should be none or none, imo

while i agree sosa is more like mcgwire than bonds, that still doesn't explain all of the players between sosa and bonds, such as mcgriff

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786589)

if not, mcgriff just wasn't particularly stand-out for his generation. again if you look at WAR and JAWS and shit for mcgriff he's solidly among the group of very good but not hof first basemen.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786647)

I think this may be the year when one of Bonds/Clemens gets in actually. People seem to care less and less about punishing them - both were over 50% last year.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34785516)

loses some value for playing first base and gets overlooked a bit b/c he was a power hitter in an era full of power hitters but his full body of work is as good as pretty much any of them. compare his numbers to frank thomas'.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34787206)

And how the fuk is this guy not suspected of roiding? All of his best years were during the peak era.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34789656)

i agree that he wasn't *the* dominant power hitter of his time but that's not the standard for the hof. compare his stats to frank thomas, eddie murray, willie mccovey, rafael palmeiro (who'd be in the hof without the steroid shit). 9th highest career WAR all-time among first basemen too. he's not a "slam dunk" in the sense that someone like griffey was but by the hall's standards he's right there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34792470)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870455)

This is such a fucking joke

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34786471)

D

G

A

R

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34788694)

Hoffman, Vlad and Chipper all get in

Edgar, Mussina and Thome get close. Mussina and Thome def get in eventually imo. Edgar only has 1 more year on the ballot after this year so who knows. Part of me wants him out as ammo for keeping Big Sloppy out.

Very interested to see Schilling's vote total given his politics. if it doesn't track Mussina's, then you know guys are voting based on political motivations.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870378)

Sosa, Sheffield, Schilling, Mussina, Bonds, Clemens, Thome and Andruw are no brainers.

Isringhaus, Matsui and Rolen should also be in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#34870537)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111645)

Edgar and Mussina way up though.

I hope to god Hoffman never gets in, but it's inevitable.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111692)

has a non-1st time guy ever got 90+%?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35111707)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/First_Ballot_Hall_of_Famer

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Hall_of_Fame_Voting_Percentages

Robbie Alomar got 90.01% and was not a first ballot guy

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141783)

so, vlad will end up in the top 20 of all time. very odd

looks like alomar got the benefit of perhaps a weak class

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141811)

Robbie Alomar 90.01%

Roberto Clemente 92.69%

That's the list

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141800)

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/23/hall-fame-chipper-jones-jim-thome-vladimir-guerrero-trevor-hoffman

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35219284)

https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/950530355731329029

Looking like a 4-person class, potentially 5.

If Moose ends over 60% he'll get in eventually.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35118193)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw

looking like it may be a 5-person class

Mike Mussina at almost 74%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35137474)

https://twitter.com/Rosscarey/status/951891157851803648

in any event i wasn't counting moose as one of the 5.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35141727)

Edgar sitting at 81% for public ballots. He needs a hair over 70% on the remaining ballots to get elected. Last year his support on private ballots was -12.1%, so if that trend holds he'd be *just* out.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35160931)

Moose isn't gonna maek it :(

Edgar and Hoffman are like coin flips, but i hope both get off the ballot this year to make space.

anyone want to weigh win on why voters prefer Edgar to Larry Walker?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211182)

I was a Mariners fan though and Edgar was 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211256)

I just think it's hard to keep Walker out if you vote in Edgar.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211279)

In addition to the coors problem, Walker has a pretty significant war boost from fielding/running, which is always a tough case to make unless you were recognized as a star in those areas at the time

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211416)

Walker, Rolen, and even Andruw Jones and Sheffield have higher WAR.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211562)

also, isn't there a lack of 3B in the hall?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35211585)

With 242 ballots revealed/~57.1% of the vote known:

Chipper - 98%

Vlad - 95%

Thome - 93%

Hoffman - 78.9%

Edgar - 77.3%

-----

Mussina - 70.7%

BB/RC - 65%

Schilling - 60%

Walker - 38%

Vizquel - 33%

Manny - 23%

McGriff - 19%

Rolen - 12%

Andruw - 5.8%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35227507)

VLAD IN

YNY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228822)

I really wanted him to hang around to get 300 wins.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35228953)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2017.shtml

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3810691&forum_id=2#35229248)