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So is futures trading going to drive Btc up or down?
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Date: December 6th, 2017 10:59 PM Author: pungent persian preventive strike
Bull case: Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency, has high name recognition, can't be hacked, is easier and cheaper to store and transfer than gold. It's worth only $240 billion; gold is worth trillions. Bitcoin should be worth as much as gold or more. Futures make the product feel more legitimate, and more boomers will buy in.
Bear case: Cryptocurrency is a legitimate innovation. However, there are hundreds of competitors to Bitcoin. Some are markedly better than Bitcoin in terms of transfer speeds and transfer costs. There is no consumer lock-in with Bitcoin. The price of switching from Bitcoin to another currency is minimal: just convert from one to another on an exchange. Bitcoin's core developers, like Occupy Wall Street, seem perhaps pathologically averse to central leadership. They have no single benevolent leader who is capable of moving the project forward without provoking calls for forks. Ethereum, which has enormous flaws of its own, is nonetheless improving much faster than Bitcoin. Ethereum can already do about 10 transactions per second; Bitcoin does about 7; VISA does thousands. Several companies have released or will release in the near future cryptocurrencies with speeds on the VISA scale.
Couldn't some firm quietly accumulate Bitcoin and place it on the exchanges that constitute the CBoE or CME indexes? Couldn't they open massive short positions in Bitcoin futures and dump all of their Bitcoin on the relevant exchanges? According to Cryptowatch (https://cryptowat.ch/gdax/btcusd) you'd only need to sell a few million dollars of Bitcoin to tank the price by $1000. How much would you need to sell to crash the price on a few exchanges?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3819738&forum_id=7#34857809)
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