Democrats win state senate race in WI in a district Trump won by 17 points
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Date: January 17th, 2018 2:31 PM Author: Chestnut Theater Stage
Harris or Oprah would be easy for Trump to attack and might scare a lot of the same Midwest white voters into voting for trump again (especially if the economy is still good). I think it would still be offset (and then some) by increased black turnout for Dems but who knows.
Dems taking control of Congress in 2018 would help a lot because they can run endless investigations and pass laws that trump will look bad if he vetoes.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176955)
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Date: January 17th, 2018 2:39 PM Author: Chestnut Theater Stage
Most white voters are open to voting for someone of any color, especially Democrat voters. Obama ran on a mostly straight forward liberal platform that, while a bit to the left of the party at the time, wasn’t anything too divisive among left/center left types.
If Oprah/Harris run a campaign primarily centered around identity politics, don’t be surprised if 2020 ends up being competitive. Either one would still be a solid favorite considering Trump’s unpopularity... but so was Hillary.
Luckily, I don’t think either one will win the nomination.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35177045) |
Date: January 17th, 2018 1:19 PM Author: Effete brass heaven macaca
did the DEM candidate run on amnesty, white privilege/systemic racism? its silly to look at that race as any kind of indicator for 2020. Obama got whooped in 2010 but easily won reelection in 2012. its slightly more relevant for 2018 though but not much since by nature ppl are much more willing to vote in non partisan way at state level. Look at Illinois electing a GOP governor
better indicator is congressional/senate seats that GOP was holding. its been kind of a mixed bag there. GOP successfully defended all house seats and lost AL senate. but AL had a real shitty candidate.
the fact that you think a fucking state senate race (run entirely on local issues and doesn't motivate the base as much as POTUS election) is relevant for 2020 shows why you only got into part time Columbia b school and never got MBB or bulge bracket. you probably flunked every single case interview and data analysis question
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35176282) |
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Date: January 17th, 2018 2:42 PM Author: Vibrant locus
1. Obama, even when people disagreed with his policies, was always personally popular. Very rarely did Obama's approval rating go below 45%. Contrast this to Trump, where he is stuck in the 30's despite a robust economy and substantive accomplishments. If you think Obama and Trump are comparable, then you have no idea what you're talking about.
2. You mentioned the congressional/senate special elections. So the GOP candidates who managed to win, underperformed Trump and prior congressmen who held those seats. In VA, Northam vastly outperformed the polls, winning by 9 points, the biggest victory by a Democrat since 1985. The VA House of Delegates nearly flipped, with only a random drawing from a bowl saving GOP control. Gillespie was a strong candidate with a great policy platform; he actually did fine with core Trump voters and actually did better with minorities than Trump did. But he got blown out because college educated suburban whites came out to register a protest vote against Trump.
3. The WI state senate race is not a harbinger of 2020, and I never said it was. Rather, when a huge GOP district swings to the Dems in such a short time period, it raises valid questions about the mood in "Middle America" and how voters perceive Trump and the overall GOP brand. When there is a wave, it doesn't affect just Senate and governor races but down ballot as well, including local races. Look at the enormous gains made by the GOP in 2010 at state legislatures and obscure local races. The Dems basically got wiped out across all levels during the Obama presidency.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862710&forum_id=2#35177067)
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