taking a sabbatical is massively credited. taking/giving Qs
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Date: January 18th, 2018 10:57 AM Author: Shivering Temple Boiling Water
hopefully 3-6 months. I just sold my portion of a partnership for a tidy sum of cash and have passive income from a royalty package that I took with me, paid off student loans etc, so I can afford to take the time
I'm hitting up the big petroleum expo in Houston next month just to keep the irons in the fire but that's all I really have planned. I'm already getting cold offers for jobs now that I'm a free agent. seems like money and pussy chase after you when you don't want or need either of them.
I'm really hoping I can start buying slumlord rental properties so I can extend the sabbatical into permanent early retirement by the time I turn 40, but we'll see what unfolds
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3863596&forum_id=2#35182649) |
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Date: January 18th, 2018 11:29 AM Author: Shivering Temple Boiling Water
yeah, I co-founded a partnership 4 years ago that hit $15,000,000 in revenue this year but I had a falling out with my partner about a year and a half ago that eventually got unbearable
so I negotiated a structured buyout of my equity and resigned January 1
kind of ready to do my own thing anyway. a rapidly growing company is overrated
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3863596&forum_id=2#35182892) |
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Date: January 18th, 2018 11:47 AM Author: Shivering Temple Boiling Water
The safest way to invest in an oil rebound is to buy stocks, not flame. The shit I pulled off requires a lot of training, specialty knowledge, and a mentor. And it's insanely high risk.
Educate yourself about different heavy hitter oil companies, their valuations, debt, and future production plans. Focus on the grades of crude they're producing.
Ex: I'm holding Suncor stock right now because they're the Exxon of oil sands development and not very expensive. Oil sands mining produces an extremely heavy, sulfurous grade of crude called Western Canadian Select. WCS trades at a heavy discount to WTI. Sounds bad, but not so fast: Venezuela also produces shit quality crude and many of our Gulf refineries are equipped to refine it and pay the best spot price for it.
So logically, when Venezuela's production collapses, those refineries will seek a replacement heavy crude source. Canada is your winner. If you think Venezuela is going tits up and its fields will collapse, investing in oil sands development and heavy crude refiners makes sense. You'll get the added benefit of the tightening of WCS prices vs. WTI, compounded by WTI lifting WCS as it approaches $80-$100.
If you choose to invest in shale development, though, that's a whole other story. Shale valuation has very little to do with production or sale of oil like the more traditional companies do.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3863596&forum_id=2#35183070) |
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Date: January 18th, 2018 2:46 PM Author: Shivering Temple Boiling Water
Whiting is a shale company which is a TOTALLY different animal that not many people, especially "investment professionals," understand.
CRC looks to be more conventional though so maybe that would be a bet if you want crypto gains, but I'm not very familiar with the company.
I do agree, Suncor is a long term conservative hold to play geopolitical risk.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3863596&forum_id=2#35184338)
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Date: January 18th, 2018 2:57 PM Author: Shivering Temple Boiling Water
that a long ass story, pumbro. I'm sure you'd get bored during my sermon.
the tl;dr investment version: debt = cancer.
pick a company that has low debt, or a proven track record of refinancing its debt if you're more risk tolerant. check the 10Q for their price-per-barrel G&A expenses and average lifting costs.
MOST important of all: check and see how successful they are in offloading assets to other companies after they've drilled them and figure out the price per acre they sold for (take the purchase price divided by the net acres, they usually have both in the press release). The real money these companies make is moving large amounts of acres to bigger idiots for more than it took for them to pick it up.
if a company doesn't have all of this info easily accessible, or they're operating more than $30-35/bbl all in, they're garbage.
your hedge fund bro would probably disagree with me but my knowledge comes from a different perspective clawing and building a company from scratch. YMMV.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3863596&forum_id=2#35184422) |
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Date: January 18th, 2018 3:10 PM Author: Shivering Temple Boiling Water
yep. most people don't evaluate it that way though--they still get horny about well results (which are mostly flame) and reserve values (which are also mostly flame).
in my opinion, the all-time king of the shale BS game is DVN. again, on-the-ground perspective. short term trading like you described will depend on risky bets on TTTTTTT companies like Sandridge getting their act together.
I wouldn't invest a goddamn dime in a shale company though, not after what I've seen and experienced. you'd be better off buying ETH.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3863596&forum_id=2#35184488) |
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