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Chinese shadow debt becoming non-refinanceable. Global recession part 2 soon
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Date: January 24th, 2018 4:28 AM Author: concupiscible location halford https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-23/china-s-15-trillion-shadow-banking-edifice-showing-more-cracks
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Date: January 24th, 2018 4:33 AM Author: out-of-control state candlestick maker China’s financial system falling apart was always a Q of when, not if but it’s only China that will fall apart (and a couple of exposed Asian developing countries), not the U.S., China still doesn’t matter anywhere near as much as it thinks it does pull back on exposure to emerging markets |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 5:50 AM Author: Cream massive market this seems right. and it seems like a pullback from investment in more risky markets would be very good for the US, especially in light of the Trump economic boom (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869245&forum_id=2#35224318) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:04 AM Author: out-of-control state candlestick maker yeah I think so investment coming back because of domestic growth and tax reform the main hit will come for those industries that get a lot of export revenues from China (Apple might take a hit), but because of the trade imbalance that won't matter too much to the U.S. economy as a whole some Asian countries might get fucked though, and China LJL need to scale back my small amount of Hong Kong stocks |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 7:39 AM Author: concupiscible location halford I believe this could be worse than you both expect. US/ global exposure to China is unavoidable. I look at the reaction to the Yuan devaluation in 2015 which ended up being inconsequential but immediate impact in US market was significant. This will be very consequential. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869245&forum_id=2#35224440) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 7:49 AM Author: out-of-control state candlestick maker the yuan devaluation is actually a great example of what I mean beyond an initially spooked reaction, it hardly mattered at all in the US. Markets will go crazy for a few weeks but then it will all settle and growth resume as normal I’m not saying a catastrophe in the Chinese financial system will have no impact at all, just that the impact will be relatively modest and short term and nothing like the catastrophe it will be for China itself the US exposure to a collapse of Chinese demand is modest the only way this has a bigger impact is if there is contagion into the US financial system or something, and I don’t see a clear mechanism for this given the two systems are not really connected (unlike say with the European financial system): China wants to be decoupled, and now they will have to live with it |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 4:37 AM Author: maniacal tan mad-dog skullcap selfie not reading all this shit but every China doom prediction has been a joke
GHOST CITIES OOOOOOOOOOH *makes spooky noises from underneath a blanket* |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 4:42 AM Author: out-of-control state candlestick maker where do you think a lot of that dead debt went? building shit that nobody wants (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869245&forum_id=2#35224257) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 5:30 AM Author: Khaki casino ruh roh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869245&forum_id=2#35224294) |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 6:08 AM Author: 180 milk seen this kind of news too many times to take it seriously anymore. it might happen but media/economists have cried wolf too many times
second its good for crypto. i expect money to flee out of china like crazy and crypto will get its fair share even with the inevitable govt crackdown |
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Date: January 24th, 2018 7:41 AM Author: concupiscible location halford Im not sure ive seen debt solvency problems in the past, but a lot of questioning about accuracy of indicators (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3869245&forum_id=2#35224448) |