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Should i hold ~10% bonds in my long term portfolio? or fuck bonds

...
Alcoholic Step-uncle's House
  04/19/18
Obvious answer is depends on your goals / situation 10% s...
Lavender boyish kitchen new version
  04/19/18
JFC, you only live once. Reach for the stars, man. Bonds, l...
Opaque meetinghouse
  04/19/18
...
Histrionic corner
  04/19/18
...
dead soul-stirring fortuitous meteor abode
  04/19/18
I know plenty of serious-minded investors in their 20s, 30s,...
pink locale legal warrant
  04/19/18
Cr. Plus if you have access to the TSP the g fund is money
Abusive Brindle Native French Chef
  04/19/18
i was waiting for this to turn into a sci fi epic, but yeah ...
Alcoholic Step-uncle's House
  04/19/18
i'll call bullshit for a more important reason the one year...
vivacious mental disorder mexican
  04/19/18
Psychological boost? Fuck are you talking about?
Laughsome amber location
  04/19/18
you don't think there is a psychological component to invest...
vivacious mental disorder mexican
  04/19/18
im here for the risk adjusted returns. i get my feel goods ...
mahogany at-the-ready cuckoldry
  04/19/18
then have the branch op cite his work i can tell you a few ...
vivacious mental disorder mexican
  04/19/18
...
Alcoholic Step-uncle's House
  04/19/18
I do 10% bonds 90% stocks. Come at me, bros.
dashing codepig
  04/19/18
That’s what I do. I also place retarded bets in the distres...
Vibrant heaven cuckold
  04/19/18
You should have your age in bonds, i.e., 35 percent treasuri...
Vibrant heaven cuckold
  04/19/18
...
Alcoholic Step-uncle's House
  04/19/18
so 30 year olds should have 30% in fixed income? despite ~35...
Lavender boyish kitchen new version
  04/19/18
Did you miss the part where I am a time traveller?
Vibrant heaven cuckold
  04/19/18
lmao yes. i read the first sentence and became unhinged
Lavender boyish kitchen new version
  04/19/18
im 30 and there's no way id put 30% in fixed income I just g...
pink locale legal warrant
  04/19/18
180. Gonna do this tonight.
Vibrant heaven cuckold
  04/19/18
...
pink locale legal warrant
  04/19/18
...
tan pea-brained ceo
  04/19/18
Your post up top is super cr. But here...buying options on ...
aromatic gaping preventive strike
  04/19/18
i just dont see the big risk; there is going to be some winn...
pink locale legal warrant
  04/19/18
Brother, you may be autistic.
Vibrant heaven cuckold
  04/19/18
just as likely your pay will fall off a cliff and youll be u...
stimulating buck-toothed coldplay fan dilemma
  04/19/18
Fortuitous cliff
Vibrant heaven cuckold
  04/19/18
Yes but purchase actual bonds. Not a bond fund etf whose va...
odious topaz faggot firefighter
  04/19/18
Extreme TCR
Carnelian theater stage
  04/19/18
Wait what? The value and price of a bond absolutely changes ...
Lavender boyish kitchen new version
  04/19/18
...
Idiotic mind-boggling people who are hurt theatre
  04/19/18
explain
Alcoholic Step-uncle's House
  04/19/18
Here’s what I think he means (but i hope not for his sake): ...
Lavender boyish kitchen new version
  04/19/18
explain, shitlib
provocative flirting point mood
  04/19/18
I’m at about 5% bonds, half US and half international. I’m a...
Godawful bronze roommate main people
  04/19/18
I’m 100% equities but I have my son’s UTMA in some high yiel...
emerald sweet tailpipe office
  04/19/18
bonds are ok if you regularly need access to cash for a smal...
dead soul-stirring fortuitous meteor abode
  04/19/18
Sounds like consensus is no
Alcoholic Step-uncle's House
  04/20/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:49 AM
Author: Alcoholic Step-uncle's House



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874169)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:51 AM
Author: Lavender boyish kitchen new version

Obvious answer is depends on your goals / situation

10% sounds like some BB rated junk. I’d probably just do equities instead for dat upside.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874187)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:53 AM
Author: Opaque meetinghouse

JFC, you only live once. Reach for the stars, man. Bonds, lmao

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874196)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:11 PM
Author: Histrionic corner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875875)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:44 PM
Author: dead soul-stirring fortuitous meteor abode



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877691)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: pink locale legal warrant

I know plenty of serious-minded investors in their 20s, 30s, 40s who remain all equity (with subclass diversification) on a rocket-fuel theory of just trying to juice returns and endorsing the view that equity is always going to outperform bonds as long as you have a significantly long time horizon. But there is an argument from modern portfolio theory that having a small component of your portfolio invested in bonds will increase your long-run risk adjusted return (and potentially your long-run absolute return) as long as you engage in routine (at least annual and ideally quarterly) portfolio rebalancing. The argument in favor can get technical but the gist of it is that having a bond component shelters you during periods of market downturns and then enables you to rebalance into equities with depressed prices / or conversely exit equities that are overheated. Some of this argument turns on access to leverage but there's a case for it even if you're just doing straight buying and selling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874227)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:00 PM
Author: Abusive Brindle Native French Chef

Cr. Plus if you have access to the TSP the g fund is money

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874242)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Alcoholic Step-uncle's House

i was waiting for this to turn into a sci fi epic, but yeah ive generally done 10% in bonds based on similar advice i got when i started putting money into the market

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874250)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:25 PM
Author: vivacious mental disorder mexican

i'll call bullshit for a more important reason

the one year out of ten where you 'win' because you only had 90% of your holdings get slammed by a downturn does not result in enough of a psychological boost to make up for the other 9 years where you weren't maximizing your gains.

i'll call bullshit for a less supportable reason, too. i don't believe the premise is true in most situations, but that's just a hunch

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875958)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:56 PM
Author: Laughsome amber location

Psychological boost? Fuck are you talking about?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876125)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 4:03 PM
Author: vivacious mental disorder mexican

you don't think there is a psychological component to investing? you're incredibly naïve if you argue otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876167)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 4:37 PM
Author: mahogany at-the-ready cuckoldry

im here for the risk adjusted returns. i get my feel goods elsewhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876373)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 6:05 PM
Author: vivacious mental disorder mexican

then have the branch op cite his work

i can tell you a few reasons why it is bullshit just looking at his explanation, but since you're such a cold hearted pragmatist investor, i'm sure you already see them

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876944)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:37 PM
Author: Alcoholic Step-uncle's House



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874506)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:38 PM
Author: dashing codepig

I do 10% bonds 90% stocks. Come at me, bros.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874515)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:47 PM
Author: Vibrant heaven cuckold

That’s what I do. I also place retarded bets in the distressed high yield space .

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874575)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:43 PM
Author: Vibrant heaven cuckold

You should have your age in bonds, i.e., 35 percent treasuries and 65 percent large cap blue chips, if you are 35 years old. I’m time traveling from 1985, btw.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874550)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:45 PM
Author: Alcoholic Step-uncle's House



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874565)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:46 PM
Author: Lavender boyish kitchen new version

so 30 year olds should have 30% in fixed income? despite ~35 more years of increasing pay ahead of them? regardless of 401k contributions? this can’t be right for someone with a reasonable risk tolerance

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874566)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM
Author: Vibrant heaven cuckold

Did you miss the part where I am a time traveller?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874579)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM
Author: Lavender boyish kitchen new version

lmao yes. i read the first sentence and became unhinged

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874584)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM
Author: pink locale legal warrant

im 30 and there's no way id put 30% in fixed income I just got a second mortgage on our house I didn't tell my wife but it's going to pay off so it doesn't matter and anyway I am INVESTING on heavy margin in options im doing the "random walk" approach which is u just randomly pick a bunch of different options and the theory is that it just pays off because ull have some winners and some losers but the winners will be bigger than the losers

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874586)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:51 PM
Author: Vibrant heaven cuckold

180. Gonna do this tonight.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874609)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:55 PM
Author: pink locale legal warrant



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874644)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:57 PM
Author: tan pea-brained ceo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874657)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:10 PM
Author: aromatic gaping preventive strike

Your post up top is super cr. But here...buying options on margin? Brother i hope it works out for you, but this sounds like a terrible idea. “Random walk” refers to equities not options on equities

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875862)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:43 PM
Author: pink locale legal warrant

i just dont see the big risk; there is going to be some winners and some losers but they say a monkey throwing darts can beat the average mutual fund so i should be able to pick things at random and win; its not just on margin its this thing they call "EXTREME MARGIN" that they're offering through this italian platform that one of the people in my office hooked me up with--im a secretary in biglaw--so you can borrow up to 90% of the value so ive been able to buy a ton of options

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876075)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:49 PM
Author: Vibrant heaven cuckold

Brother, you may be autistic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876102)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:52 PM
Author: stimulating buck-toothed coldplay fan dilemma

just as likely your pay will fall off a cliff and youll be unemployable than youll have increasing pay for 35 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874623)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:56 PM
Author: Vibrant heaven cuckold

Fortuitous cliff

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874648)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:57 PM
Author: odious topaz faggot firefighter

Yes but purchase actual bonds. Not a bond fund etf whose value jumps up and down.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876132)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:07 PM
Author: Carnelian theater stage

Extreme TCR

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876566)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:11 PM
Author: Lavender boyish kitchen new version

Wait what? The value and price of a bond absolutely changes even if you hold them directly.

This is like the most nonsensical shit I’ve ever heard.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876611)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 6:07 PM
Author: Idiotic mind-boggling people who are hurt theatre



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876960)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:16 PM
Author: Alcoholic Step-uncle's House

explain

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876662)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:22 PM
Author: Lavender boyish kitchen new version

Here’s what I think he means (but i hope not for his sake):

ETFs are based on the prices of the underlying bonds so the etf price will fluctuate if say interest rates go up or the issuers have a higher chance of insolvency (causing the underlying bond prices to drop)

But if you just hold the bonds you’ll still get the same nominal interest and principal payment regardless of what happens to the bond price. So he’s ignoring the impact of higher interest rates on the NPV of the coupon/principal payments or any changes to the chance the issuer goes bankrupt and you end up with much less than you expect

If you said this in an undergrad finance class I honestly think the professor might beat you to death on the spot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876696)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:17 PM
Author: provocative flirting point mood

explain, shitlib

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876665)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:08 PM
Author: Godawful bronze roommate main people

I’m at about 5% bonds, half US and half international. I’m also about 40% in investment real estate though (in equity terms;150% with leverage) and I think that’s the more significant hedge/diversification.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877498)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:14 PM
Author: emerald sweet tailpipe office

I’m 100% equities but I have my son’s UTMA in some high yield corporate junk bond index fund since I’m just trying to maximize yield. I see no reason to be in bonds if you have no plans to pull any money out.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877535)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:42 PM
Author: dead soul-stirring fortuitous meteor abode

bonds are ok if you regularly need access to cash for a small business and just need a place to store money

they also might be useful for stabilizing a margin account if you're writing a ton of puts on SP500 minis or some other more exotic strategy

but otherwise, i wouldn't use them if you're young and/or have other bond-like instruments

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877683)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2018 10:37 AM
Author: Alcoholic Step-uncle's House

Sounds like consensus is no

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35880986)