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How can LA home prices possibly go significantly lower?
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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:27 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman There is a ton of net migration every year, we have some of the highest rates of foreign investment in real estate, and no new single family homes are being built because there isn't enough land. Short of a natural disaster, what's it gonna take? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35929024) |
Date: April 26th, 2018 11:31 PM Author: Glittery elite site significantly reducing foreign "investment" would be a good start. if they're not living here or developing the land or buildings, slap a really high tax on them. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35929042) |
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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:33 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman i'm skeptical this would work. deep pockets
on a side note: now that i'm buying a home it's hilarious how much i hate this idea compared to even two months ago. get your hands off my skyrocketing property values! |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 5:06 AM Author: Awkward Dull Shrine then don’t let them buy if they aren’t legally resident and if they move away, make them divest plenty of countries do this |
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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Supple bat-shit-crazy locus azn 2008-2012 LA real estate prices got rekt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35929050) |
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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:36 PM Author: Poppy misunderstood chapel not really. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35929069) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 5:01 AM Author: hideous toaster church Median was in the $300s for a while. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35929811) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 5:13 AM Author: abnormal stimulating set newt repeal prop 13
general market crash
earthquake
urban decay like the 1960s and 70s |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 12:08 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35931385) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 12:10 PM Author: stirring reading party filthpig I think they took a hit in the early/mid 90s when there was a recession/riots/final collapse of SoCal aerospace industry. Not sure what it would take now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35931400) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 12:12 PM Author: diverse indecent fanboi Interest rates Recession Media industry disruption Taxes
What makes you think houses aren’t being built. I spent 3 minutes clicking around on Redfin and I see some new houses. Not sure what would be a normal amount in most places, though, so maybe what I’m seeing is just a very low level vs population. |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:43 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman Flips /=/ new construction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932949) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:51 PM Author: diverse indecent fanboi Fair point, I guess. Don’t really know la, but I haven’t seen much open space on the west side, so unless they start building vertically, I guess there’s a limit on new housing.
Though replacing a 1200sqft house with a 5000sqft one does increase the housing stock. |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:44 PM Author: exciting jet-lagged ratface faggotry massive earthquake-- biggest risk is the aqueduct collapsing and LA not having running water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932956) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:45 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman short of a natural disaster, dummy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932963) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:46 PM Author: exciting jet-lagged ratface faggotry i only read thread titles unless I recognize the OP (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932980) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:47 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman i'm gonna fuck you till you love me, faggot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932987) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:44 PM Author: ocher parlour sweet tailpipe In December 1861, as a California drought was wearing into its fifth year, farmers on the West Coast were all asking for one thing for Christmas: rain. And boy did they get it. For 43 days rain and snow fell across the state, causing rivers to surge their banks, turning the 300-mile long, 20-mile-wide Central Valley into an ice-cold inland sea. LA got 66 inches. So deep were Sacramento’s floodwaters that the capital had to be relocated to San Francisco. With a quarter of the economy underwater the state was forced into bankruptcy. Thousands of people died. It was the most violent flooding California had ever seen, and no storms have come close to topping it since.
Soil cores and climate models tell scientists that megafloods like this one have happened about once every 200 years. Which, if you’re doing the math, means the state is due.That’s not the bad news. The bad news is that by the middle of the century, a megaflood could be striking California every couple of decades. It rained longer than Noah, bro. |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 7:35 PM Author: hideous toaster church *invests in house-on-stilts retrofitting company* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35934866) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 7:39 PM Author: ocher parlour sweet tailpipe California is hilly. The ground is gonna be soaked and mudslide pwn even with stilts. Oh, and California is hilly so even if by some miracle your house survives the one above you will come crashing onto you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35934886) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 7:42 PM Author: hideous toaster church You're just mad that I'm going to get rich in the Valley. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35934904) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 7:46 PM Author: ocher parlour sweet tailpipe Arizona weather, LA County traffic and housing prices! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35934932) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 7:59 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman There won't be rain like that anymore thanks to global warming. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35935017) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:45 PM Author: Floppy Shaky Pit interest rates are a big one. if rates go up a lot, prices will drop. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932967) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:46 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman there is a ton of pent-up demand. engineers saving $300k down payments won't care much. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932979) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:47 PM Author: Floppy Shaky Pit lol 300k down payments. in a DECENT area a mediocre house is 1.5 million. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35932986) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:53 PM Author: diverse indecent fanboi I suspect that may change if mortgage rates go to 6%, though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933036) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:57 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman cr. interest rates will put downward pressure on prices but effect will be muted because of demand. notice i said "significantly down" in title. prices will fall 5-10% at the most. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933082) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 2:57 PM Author: Floppy Shaky Pit yeah, exactly -- prices would go lower (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933083) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 7:39 PM Author: hideous toaster church To make that more concrete, the monthly loan payment is 18% higher at 6.0% vs. 4.5%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35934883) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:00 PM Author: misanthropic parlor Lol when we bought in 2015, every house in $1m+ range had buyers coming in with a 40-50% down payment or all cash. Interest rates will only affect the shitty areas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933102) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:01 PM Author: Floppy Shaky Pit its not that environment anymore, house prices are 25% higher than in 2015 and people are taking out big loans (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933116) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:05 PM Author: misanthropic parlor Not from my observations, more cash buyers than ever due to competition and more money from silicon beach. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933145) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:06 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman how much lower do you think prices will go at their trough? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933160) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:08 PM Author: Floppy Shaky Pit how high will interest rates rise? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933176) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:08 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman let's say 7%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933185) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:13 PM Author: Floppy Shaky Pit 7% 10 year money = 8.5% for a 30 year fixed loan.
lets assume a 1.3 mil purchase today with 300k down.
a $1,000,000 loan at 4.5% today would cost you $5,067 / month
a $1,000,000 loan at 8.5% today would cost you $7,689 / month
a $650,000 loan at 8.5% would cost you $4,998 / month (to equalize monthly payments with the 4.5% rate)
so with 30 year mortgage rates rising to 8.5%, the person who could afford a 1.3 mil purchase at today's rates would be able to afford a 950k purchase at 8.5%, which is a drop of 35% in value |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:18 PM Author: diverse indecent fanboi i think that would be devastating to prices.
for reference, the payment on a $1M mortgage at 4% is $4774 vs. $6653 at 7%.
put another way, at 7%, the principal on the morgage has to fall by almost 28% (to ~$718k) to equalize the payments.
that said, if rates go to 7%, it's probably because there's some inflation, which is to your benefit as someone with a 30y fixed rate mortgage.
edit: fuck, someone beat me to basically the same analysis. |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:23 PM Author: Floppy Shaky Pit good analysis, its hard to imagine rates going that high though given how much debt the federal government has (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35933339) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 3:26 PM Author: diverse indecent fanboi would require inflation, which probably helps you long term if you have a long-term fixed-rate mortgage. e.g., if inflation went to 5% and mortgage rates to 7%, then it'd take like 5 years to recoup the 28% decline.
yeah, though if the gov't decides to pay back debt by printing more money, inflation could get pretty nuts. |
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Date: April 29th, 2018 4:06 AM Author: hideous toaster church Historically, however, the relationship between interest rates and prices had been weak, largely because the factors that tend to accompany higher rates (e.g., strong wage growth) also accompany higher prices. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35942813) |
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Date: April 29th, 2018 5:19 PM Author: provocative charcoal kitchen skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3961141&forum_id=2#35945558) |
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Date: April 27th, 2018 7:48 PM Author: cracking arrogant weed whacker Sooner or later it won’t make any sense for Americans to live in the shitty parts of LA and they’ll leave. Mexicans take over. Or Chinese just buy and sell among themselves. The wealthy still demand houses on the west side but central and east LA becomes a wasteland of empty or decaying homes.
Times and priorities change. I know two millennial wannabe actress chicks who were all about going to LA for years from the east coast. In the 00s they would have done that but by the time they saved up a little dough both realized it wasn’t a place they needed to be. Now one is trying to be an organic chef and the other is working at an animal sanctuary. That’s what millennials want to do nowadays instead of beat it to LA to be escorts. |