The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
In terms of results vs polling, 1980 was bigger upset than 2016 election
| wild pink orchestra pit | 05/20/18 |
| onyx coiffed generalized bond | 05/20/18 |
| cerebral fanboi | 05/20/18 |
| wild pink orchestra pit | 05/20/18 |
| Galvanic national faggotry | 05/20/18 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: May 20th, 2018 3:48 PM Author: wild pink orchestra pit The RCP average was right in national polling; it showed Trump losing the popular vote by around 2 points. The only states where it was off beyond the margin of error were WI, MI, PA. In contrast, polls in 1980 showed Reagan winning by around 2 points nationally and getting around 300-320 electoral votes. Reagan ended up with 489 electoral votes and beat Carter in popular votes by 9.7%.
My dad voted for Reagan in 1980 and thought it was going to be close, like 1976. Total shock when Reagan ended up winning 44 states. |
Date: May 20th, 2018 3:50 PM Author: onyx coiffed generalized bond 1952 was a huge upset. Eisenhower won in a landslide and I think the polls had him losing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982186&forum_id=2#36091020) |
 |
Date: May 20th, 2018 4:00 PM Author: cerebral fanboi Wikipedia shows Ike with a consistent big lead in the polls except one outlier at the end.
Polling for 1980 May have been affected by the ongoing dem->gop shift in the south - a lot of “democrats” probably voted for a Democrat for president for the last time in 1976. |
|
Date: May 20th, 2018 4:33 PM Author: wild pink orchestra pit Good point. Carter won every southern state except VA in 1976. In 1980, Reagan won every southern state except GA. But he won 6 southern states by margin of less than 2 points.
It's mind blowing that 28% of self-described liberals voted for Reagan in 1980. |
|
Date: May 20th, 2018 7:06 PM Author: Galvanic national faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3982186&forum_id=2#36092200) |