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I'm short NKE at $80
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 4th, 2018 11:30 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Stock trades at 30x P/E and 20x EV/EBITDA Nike stock is up 27% YTD and 51% LTM
30x P/E represents the highest valuation multiple for Nike since 2001 and eclipses the 2015 peak of 28x when revenue was growing 13% y/y
Pre-2014 the stock traded in a band between 15x and 20x. Since then it's traded from 20-25x. So the current multiple is 25-50% higher than normalized
Why is the valuation multiple so high? The company has accelerated revenue growth from 4% in CY 2017 to an estimated 9% in CY 2018. Accelerating a company this size is indeed impressive and they appear to be gaining share from competitors - namely, Under Armour.
However, profitability growth has not kept up. Fiscal 2018 earnings growth was -5% as the company increased investment to drive revenue growth. Consensus believes these investments will then be curtailed; earnings are estimated to rebound and grow 17% in CY 2019 and then 21% in CY 2020 as these investments pay off.
My short thesis is threefold: 1. Revenue growth will be disappointing as the company loses share to competitors after wading headlong into politics 2. Margins will disappoint as the company will have to increase investment to drive revenue 3. At 30x P/E the company has zero room for error and must not simply meet expectations but clobber them. I don't believe they will
I think the stock does something like 2.80 in Fiscal 2020. 20x that is a $56 stock for 30% downside. Upside the stock does 3.25 and gets 30x for a $97.50 stock for 22% upside. 3:2 reward to risk
I typically don't do consumer stocks but think the market will underestimate what the company has just done to itself similar to how they underestimated EA
I will be incorrect if this all blows over and people move on. However, with the NFL season about to start, Nike being the sole sponsor of the NFL, and anthem protests likely to continue the entire season, pissing off half the consumers in the country, I think this risk is mitigated
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:43 PM Author: beady-eyed submissive famous landscape painting hell Buy some puts Cr? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743588) |
Date: September 4th, 2018 11:36 AM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook One other negative you didn't mention is that Nike is no longer the cool streetwear brand for anyone 25 and younger. I would expect that generation to all continue to prefer Adidas/Yeezy over Nike/Jordan as their incomes grow. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742835) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:37 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater I have no view in that regard and can't say for sure one way or another if its the cool brand or not
I do know regular 30 year old+ people still buy jerseys, clothing, and shoes |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:43 AM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook The kids that prefer Adidas now will still prefer them in 3 years when they're older and have more disposable income. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742871) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:54 PM Author: Sick Selfie and these people will vote republican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743298) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:38 AM Author: salmon judgmental state Really? Dont kids worship lebron? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742854) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:42 AM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook Everyone wants to wear yeezys (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742869) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:45 AM Author: salmon judgmental state Jfc im old. Never heard of this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742887) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:45 AM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742890) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:48 AM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook https://yeezysupply.com/products/workwear-jumpsuit-core?c=%2Fcollections%2Fnew-arrivals
This is what the kids want |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:49 AM Author: salmon judgmental state Ok you're just fucking with me. Get off my lawn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742921) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:50 AM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook No I swear I'm not--everyone wants to wear his shoes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742927) |
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Date: October 10th, 2018 3:36 PM Author: Pale adulterous piazza twinkling uncleanness https://yeezysupply.com/products/workwear-jumpsuit-sage?c=%2Fcollections%2Fnew-arrivals-tops
EXPLAIN |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:11 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Obama really did a number on this country (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743054) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:13 PM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook Kanye is a trumpmo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743066) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:14 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater He's riding trends instilled over the past decade, good for him (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743067) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:52 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin This is wrong. Their newest shoes have had serious hype, and they look better than adidas for hypebeast purposes. Add in the Virgil Abloh/OffWhitexNike collabs and they’re still GOAT. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743276) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:16 PM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook nah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743428) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:16 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin Bump this thread and call me a twink if I’m wrong about this post-kaep fallout (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743436) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:19 PM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook for what it's worth, I don't think the Kaep stuff will have any real impact on Nike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743452) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:20 PM Author: Stimulating national genital piercing Lol at this anectdotal stuff that, even if true, is likely baked into the price. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36747359) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:43 AM Author: Glittery snowy preventive strike the options (puts) look very expensive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742878) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:46 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater I'm short the stock which I don't recommend for normal people. No view on the puts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742894) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:47 AM Author: Glittery snowy preventive strike ah gotcha. you need a big position to make a 10% or 20% drop worthwhile then idk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742900) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:54 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Jan 19 $60 puts are 30c a pop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742958) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:55 AM Author: Glittery snowy preventive strike the stock has top drop 25% over 4 months to be in the money on those lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742960) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:57 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater You don't have to wait to be in the money, you can flip the options
But yeah the options do look expensive
Maybe sell OTM calls and buy OTM puts and make it costless
You can sell Jan 19 $100 calls for 30c
But I don't do much with options given I need to sling more money around |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:51 AM Author: Bonkers persian Kapernicks Jersey was a top seller last year, and he never played a game. NKE may climb. I don’t agree with his stance at all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36742936) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:52 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Sure. But Nike wasn't overtly antagonizing 1/3 to 1/2 its customer base.
Pro-Kaep people will still buy Kaep jerseys Anti-Kaep people won't buy shit
Nike has huge growth expectations - even a hiccup and the stock will drop. I don't need the business to implode or anything, I need it to miss high expectations |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:53 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin Nike is Nike bro, old white arkansas geriatric are not going to boycott a brand with so much retail visibility (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743287) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:56 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown It's not that hard to buy a shoe without a Nike swoosh. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743313) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:59 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin I think adidas & new balance are better shoes BY FAR, but Nike is still in another league (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743326) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:52 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin Cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743280) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 12:56 PM Author: free-loading resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743310) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:01 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown (PauliePorsche) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743346) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:44 PM Author: beady-eyed submissive famous landscape painting hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743593) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:21 PM Author: Irradiated Rehab cr
dumb move on nike's part |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:21 PM Author: galvanic athletic conference half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36747365) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 11:22 PM Author: deep base 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36747379) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 9:00 AM Author: Contagious Pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36749014) |
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Date: October 11th, 2018 6:04 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37003315) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:01 PM Author: citrine parlor I'm not a Kaep fan,
I'm not a fan of Nike's brand in general,
but if you're betting against their intelligence in positioning their brand
I'd take the other side of that bet |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:02 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743359) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:14 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown You know that you can literally take that bet, right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743416) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:16 PM Author: citrine parlor fair enough (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743437) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:19 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown My position is that branding your product as anti-American and increasing sales as a result is an awful outcome for humanity, regardless of shareholder valuation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743448) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:21 PM Author: citrine parlor I don't disagree with that
Has Nike ever been a force for good in the world though?
They've been selling shoes by pissing on the social fabric of the world forever. |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:23 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown No of course not. That makes their anti-American angle towards new revenue streams even more insidious to me. I still consider myself a proud American. Notwithstanding insane shitlibs, our ideals are still better than everyone else's. I guess Nike thinks it's hip to pretend otherwise. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743474) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:29 PM Author: citrine parlor they were against pro-social values 25 years ago too
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMzdAZ3TjCA
they've always been past the current state of the social decay |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:36 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown Being rebellious and counter-culture (as a superstar athlete) is much different than a millionaire pro athlete who sucks shitting on the flag and then crying for several years about it because he ended his own career a half season early. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743557) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:41 PM Author: citrine parlor maybe, or maybe we're just getting old
(its ok, I know I am) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:24 PM Author: Sick Selfie you have a low intellect if you think police brutality is a problem for american blacks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743477) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:26 PM Author: citrine parlor where did I say I think that?
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:28 PM Author: Sick Selfie how exactly does betting on kaepernick's position help them in the long run? this will always be a divisive issue because kaepernick's argument is not logical (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743497) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:29 PM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook don't you have some hairy muscle studs to worship, george20? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743504) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:31 PM Author: Sick Selfie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Nebraska_Cornhuskers_football_team (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743513) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:32 PM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook oh wow great point you retard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743522) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:32 PM Author: Sick Selfie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Nebraska_Cornhuskers_football_team (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743524) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:33 PM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook I'm pretty aware of Nebraska's recent football history. Thanks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743528) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:34 PM Author: Sick Selfie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Nebraska_Cornhuskers_football_team (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743542) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:38 PM Author: Frozen principal's office travel guidebook http://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2192273&mc=107&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743565) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:32 PM Author: citrine parlor trends are set by teenagers who hate their parents
Nike wants to sell them merchandise
logical argumentation doesn't have anything to do with it |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:34 PM Author: Sick Selfie teenagers who need $100 from median american parent who more likely than not vote republican? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743539) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:36 PM Author: citrine parlor Republicans aren't immune from trying to buy their bratty kids' love
kids are resourceful for a few hundred bucks when they want to be
------
Nike's entire business model revolves around being savy about exactly how far to push the envelope
They're smarter at this than Hillary Clinton's campaign managers |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:01 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater "I'm not a Kaep fan,
I'm not a fan of Nike's brand in general,
but if you're betting against their intelligence in positioning their brand
I'd take the other side of that bet"
Long term maybe you're right, but shorting long term is retarded. Short term this stock is priced for utter perfection. I'm not saying Nike is going to implode. I'm saying Nike at its current valuation has to shoot the moon and this could stop them from doing so |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:14 PM Author: citrine parlor You know the intricacies of pricing stocks better than I do,
I suspect Nike is savy about managing their brand though. |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 10:59 AM Author: Crawly Gay Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36749602) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:56 PM Author: sapphire mediation round eye We'll see what unfolds stock wise. Thanks to the 30 year old pudgy dorks ITT weighing in on street fashion, though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743652) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:57 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin 25 and heavyset (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743664) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 1:58 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Just making a bet and putting my balls on the line for the greatbort. If I'm wrong I deserve the ridicule but I do like the risk/reward here as Nike is otherwise priced for perfection
Past precedents of companies going shitlib and getting nailed for it are: BUD, EA, DIS, and the NFL |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:28 PM Author: citrine parlor the consumer center of gravity for BUD, DIS, and the NFL is further right than it is for Nike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743871) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:29 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Yeah, maybe. But even if 10% of their customers delay purchases, it will impact Nike. Then you'll get the narrative that conservatives are abandoning the brand which will impact the stock perception even if the fundamentals aren't as bad
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:32 PM Author: citrine parlor yeah, idk, best of luck
I'm no fan of Nike |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:31 PM Author: sapphire mediation round eye I think it's a reasonable bet tbh but i don't play stocks this way.
If I'm going to lol at any post of yours it'll be the Oregon Ducks making the playoffs one from this weekend |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:32 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater QUACK QUACK
Don't think I said theyre going to the playoffs tho |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:33 PM Author: sapphire mediation round eye Defense still looks like pure shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743918) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:09 PM Author: Lake disrespectful site Terrible bet. Chinese middle class loves their basketball shoes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743725) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:22 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Have you taken a look over at China consumption data recently?
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2158813/china-retail-sales-fall-july-blow-government-plan-have |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:22 PM Author: Irradiated Rehab seems right. i don't get why nike waded into politics at all. negative emotions are stronger than positive ones, so whatever goodwill they curry w liberals is more than offset by the brand damage w conservatives. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743835) |
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Date: September 4th, 2018 2:33 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown No you don't understand man. Poor black kids will buy *even more* basketball shoes now to support Kaep. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36743912) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 3:47 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin Bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36751401) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 3:59 PM Author: Contagious Pit You mean your fund is or you personally? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36751477) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 5:09 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater I have discretion to put on postions (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36751876) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 5:10 PM Author: seedy weed whacker garrison alright Ackman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36751886) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 5:11 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin herbacucc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36751893) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 5:11 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren I have a close relative working there and this is very cr. morale is at an all time low and there are even more retarded announcements in the pipeline (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36751895) |
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Date: September 5th, 2018 7:24 PM Author: aphrodisiac clown https://www.nike.com/t/pro-womens-hijab-El7XyG (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36752584) |
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Date: September 9th, 2018 12:01 AM Author: Bonkers persian Subject: Nike enjoys 31 percent bump in online sales after debut of Colin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36773167) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 9:50 AM Author: free-loading resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36780303) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 9:59 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater (Guy who expects a position to play out in 3 days)
I used a NKE short to fund an AVGO long position. Yep, great call
Bump this in 6 months and we'll see how things have shaken out |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 12:18 PM Author: free-loading resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36781007) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:15 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater "so far there appears to be no net backlash"
https://morningconsult.com/form/nike-kaepernick-report/?
A new report from Morning Consult reveals consumer opinions of Nike have shifted rapidly since announcing their new campaign with former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Across nearly every demographic, perceptions of Nike’s brand have fallen, including among key consumer groups.
The report features over 8,000 interviews conducted among American adults, including 1,694 interviews pre-campaign launch (8/26/18 – 9/3/18) and 5,481 interviews post-campaign launch (9/4/18 – 9/5/18). Additionally, Morning Consult conducted a study among 1,168 adults in the U.S. about Nike’s ad and the decision to choose Kaepernick as the face of the campaign.
Key Findings
Nike’s Favorability Drops by Double Digits: Before the announcement, Nike had a net +69 favorable impression among consumers, it has now declined 34 points to +35 favorable. No Boost Among Key Demos: Among younger generations, Nike users, African Americans, and other key demographics, Nike’s favorability declined rather than improved. Purchasing Consideration Also Down: Before the announcement, 49 percent of Americans said they were absolutely certain or very likely to buy Nike products. That figure is down to 39 percent now. |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:34 PM Author: Canary hunting ground yarmulke An online pollster with a below-average reputation compared data from one day immediately following the announcement to pre-announcement data gathered over the course of a week. That's weak and certainly not enough to hang your hat on. Unfortunately, unlike a political race it will probably be hard to find lots of polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:35 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Dude. It's been less than a week and I was responding to his point of no backlash.
By all means bump this in 6 months if Nike is trading at $100.
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:44 PM Author: Canary hunting ground yarmulke I agree. We can't assess the impact yet. That being said, I think you're blinded by the politics here and making a risky gamble. One thing that hasn't been mentioned in these threads is Nike's ability to adjust their campaigns/marketing or pivot to a new endorsement/strategy. Plenty of their athletes have had their reputations destroyed by horrible personal or criminal events. Has that ever impacted Nike's bottom line to the point of harming their quarterly earnings? I'm not sure but I bet Nike has weathered those storms with minimal impact on earnings. I know you believe in the strength of this economy. You're basically betting that Kaep will tank Nike earnings in an unprecedented way in the face of a solid economy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36781528) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 1:45 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Did you even read my first poast?
I don't need this to tank sales. I need it to stop Nike from reaching already high sales expectations
Nike currently trades at a 72% premium on a P/E basis to the S&P 500. This is down from a 22% premium last year. To justify that they need to knock the cover off the ball.
Hitting a double when the market expects a home run and the stock will go down |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 9:59 AM Author: Fragrant hilarious dilemma old irish cottage Never short shitlibbery (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36780337) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:50 PM Author: Wonderful Mentally Impaired Office Ape Why not? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089293) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 10:11 AM Author: beady-eyed submissive famous landscape painting hell god youre stupid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36780377) |
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Date: September 10th, 2018 12:21 PM Author: sapphire mediation round eye This is every bit as dumb as the trumpmos who went ape when Nike dipped 24 hours after the announcement. Congrats. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36781021) |
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Date: October 11th, 2018 11:00 AM Author: aphrodisiac clown ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37000535) |
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Date: September 11th, 2018 1:05 AM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin Stopping by to lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36785683) |
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Date: September 17th, 2018 1:25 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36825660) |
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Date: September 11th, 2018 1:05 PM Author: free-loading resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36787930) |
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Date: September 11th, 2018 1:07 PM Author: Bonkers persian Price target: $113.50 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36787939) |
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Date: September 13th, 2018 7:14 PM Author: free-loading resort
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Date: September 17th, 2018 10:42 AM Author: free-loading resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36824545) |
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Date: September 17th, 2018 1:29 PM Author: Fantasy-prone roast beef organic girlfriend Curious about the thought process that went into this investment decision (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36825680) |
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Date: September 17th, 2018 1:44 PM Author: stirring space bought NKE Jan 19 puts. Only invested < 1000 so dont care too much but i expect to make money
i know it went up after Kaep announcement but its way too early to decide how this move is going to affect NKE stock |
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Date: September 17th, 2018 2:52 PM Author: Drunken Azure Foreskin (Hint: it wont) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36826331) |
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Date: September 21st, 2018 10:12 AM Author: free-loading resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36856266) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:17 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Missed revenues and gross margins. Shares down 4% to $81
Guidance on call
Guidance will be key |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:32 PM Author: arousing white parlour lol it's only -2% now $83 > $80, how mad are u?
i'm also in long/short and ur thesis is fucking pitiful. all u do is look backwards at historical multiples roflmao. dude ur no better than new constructs and those other retail spambots that talk about multiples. every shitty thesis is focused around multiples, i.e. yours.
figure out beats and misses bro. what's price doing? price is king in retail.
u guys don't even use credit card data? geolocation data? pure shit fund. |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:33 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater I'm not a day trader. I'm using a short NKE position to fund long positions in other names. My view was NKE risk/reward + outcome probability was skewed to the downside
I'm looking for NKE to have less market cap in a year than it does now while offsetting that with a company I bet will have a larger market cap in a year than it does now. If Nike is flat in an up market I'll take that too
Guidance is on the call, which starts at 5. Nothing matters until then really except they didn't Q2 crush numbers when they should have (World Cup benefit)
xoxo hth |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:34 PM Author: arousing white parlour so ur pure shit, got it.
i bet ur at T3 or some other scam prop casino calling urself a HF.
stay out of retail, the big boys have data u won't believe. |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:36 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Everyone has data. That data said Nike would crush. They didn't.
xoxo hth |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:39 PM Author: arousing white parlour 1. no data was flat.
2. ignore 1, they were right.
from last quarter to now, if u were tracking credit card data, stock is up from $70 to $85. Today $83.
I would suggest you look for a new PM that can teach you how HFs really work. |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:41 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater You have Chinese credit card data? Cool!
You overlay credit card transactions with the stock price? Do you do a regression too? Wow! Man I never thought of that!
Tip: NA sales were up 6%, not flat
xoxo hth
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:16 PM Author: arousing white parlour wtf are u talking about lol
chinese credit card data wasn't that good.
are u deliberately retarded?
ur shit thesis works even less well when i copy your style
"OOOH YOU LOOKED AT HISTORICAL MULTIPLES AND DETERMINED IT WAS OVERVALUED? OOOH JUST IGNORE PRICE AND MIX! CAN U TELL ME MORE STOCKS THAT ARE 30X AND I SHOULD SHORT? SO AUTOMATED! WOW WHAT A GREAT HEDGE FUND UR AT CAN I INVEST?" |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:19 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater U sound mad bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887243) |
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Date: September 26th, 2018 1:21 PM Author: arousing white parlour Am I?
NKE at $84. |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:50 PM Author: Rusted hairy legs reading party tell me not to worry about TLRY short position and it's going to crater....
good call no nke |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:55 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater I sold some puts but IMO just look at the RIOT chart as an analogue
You get a bounce and then it will die |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 4:57 PM Author: Rusted hairy legs reading party were you able to make anything on the puts? thought bout getting out of some but ehh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887044) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:06 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Made a bit but not huge gains or anything
Need this to crack <$100 to get paid |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:24 PM Author: Rusted hairy legs reading party we have some time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887302) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:24 PM Author: stirring space Was the guidance positive? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887287) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:24 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Still waiting on it and Kaep commentary
CEO oddly didn't mention Kaep in his remarks |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 5:36 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Maintained full year guide but said will be at low end
Blaming on FX
Q2 guide lower than consensus
Still have not talked Kaep
Update: completely dodged Kaep and said they got lots of social media interaction
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Date: September 25th, 2018 6:04 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Call over
Shares down 4% to $81 AH
Management was evasive with respect to Kaepernick and China tariff impact. Soft Q2 guide likely due in part to a combination of this + FX.
Them not explicitly addressing any impact of Kaepernick to their guidance is fishy. They could have killed the controversy by stating it accelerated sales. They didn't.
Will be interesting to see how this trades in the coming days. Beat/raise momentum is gone
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Date: September 25th, 2018 6:10 PM Author: Rusted hairy legs reading party i see someone has been listening on the MU quarterly call. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887641) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 6:14 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Guilty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36887662) |
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Date: September 27th, 2018 12:37 PM Author: arousing white parlour Nice lies.
Was at $83-$84 most of day.
NKE @ $85 today. |
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Date: September 27th, 2018 12:38 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Congrats bro. You're long Nike and make money. I'm short and losing. We'll see next earnings how things go (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36901879) |
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Date: September 27th, 2018 6:49 PM Author: arousing white parlour i'm not involved
just think ur process is a joke |
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Date: September 27th, 2018 12:49 PM Author: puce costumed theater stage Never, ever make an investment decision that can be skewed by your own politics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36901982) |
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Date: September 27th, 2018 6:49 PM Author: Adventurous death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36907392) |
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Date: October 7th, 2018 3:51 PM Author: swashbuckling therapy Odd, why did libs stop bumping this thread??? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36979901) |
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Date: October 7th, 2018 3:53 PM Author: Abusive locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36979910) |
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Date: October 7th, 2018 3:53 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36979911) |
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Date: October 7th, 2018 4:04 PM Author: Comical keepsake machete station No lib, but the dood probably hasn't covered his borrow fee yet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36979966) |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 11:13 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater NKE borrow cost is de minimis
This short was never about the next quarter but about the next 12 months |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:26 PM Author: arousing white parlour all retail has dropped by 10% given tariffs, so ur a net loser versus just shorting the XRT or XLY or VCR.
has nothing to do with NKE.
i'm short furniture myself, cogs are 50% from china and will get destroyed. i.e. HVT, RH. |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:28 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Sure but my upside risk on NKE is/was lower than shorting some other popular retailer short that could squeeze 25% on me
RH alone squeezed up 60% in June |
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Date: January 28th, 2019 7:41 PM Author: arousing white parlour which is when i shorted.
was a $160 stock in june, i got in at $150. check the price today? |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 10:56 AM Author: swashbuckling therapy Libs?? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36984040) |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:29 PM Author: arousing white parlour NKE as of 9.4.18: $80 NKE as of 10.8.18: $80 Change: 0%
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index as of 9.4.18: $181.57 Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index as of 10.8.18: $170.92 Change -6%
Would've generated alpha via long NKE and short VCR.
Just because you didn't lose money due to tariffs doesn't mean you added any value. NKE was actually one of the worst names to short vs. furniture guys or apparel.
At any factor neutral fund you'd be fired already. Negative 6% alpha in 1 month and you're levered 2x so -12% rofl gtfo.
You trying to take a victory lap over dumb lolyers doesn't mean people in the industry can't see how bad of an investor you are. |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:33 PM Author: Alcoholic emerald mood school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36984554) |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:33 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Did I fuck your mom or something? Why so much vitriol?
You're the one bumping this every day victory lapping when the stock was up while I've repeatedly stated its a long term short position. It's a good thing I don't work at a market neutral shop |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:42 PM Author: arousing white parlour i just hate pretenders and fakers like yourself
if u didn't bump this thread i wouldn't have called you out. I didn't "bump" the thread before, it was only to reply to your posts. |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:42 PM Author: supple school cafeteria private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36984603) |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:44 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater I've never bumped this thread outside of the earnings update. I've responded to questions but have never bumped and "victory lapped"
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Date: October 8th, 2018 12:45 PM Author: Adventurous death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36984619) |
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Date: October 8th, 2018 1:02 PM Author: supple school cafeteria private investor Do you think he's also faking working for a hedge fund? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#36984698) |
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Date: October 15th, 2018 10:09 PM Author: electric honey-headed antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37031456) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:56 PM Author: Wonderful Mentally Impaired Office Ape I am 99% sure this is the shitmod who modded everything FLW poasted because he didn't pay his ETH bet with Consuela.
Not sure how to find that thread, but if you do, I'm almost positive it's him. He openly bragged in that thread. |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:58 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren Lol what a faggot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089367) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:59 PM Author: Wonderful Mentally Impaired Office Ape Would love if someone could find that thread so we could confirm, but after seeing him here, I suspect he's a major lib and hates DM for his politics and that's why he's giving him such a hard time. Same with you too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089379) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:59 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren Cr friend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089387) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 10:00 PM Author: Motley Insecure Theater that makes sense - he tried to pick a fight with me re: Chinese tariffs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089391) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 10:02 PM Author: Wonderful Mentally Impaired Office Ape Yup. And libs are almost universally snakes who retaliate against people based on their politics, but do so under false pretenses. Here, he only hates "pretenders and fakers." Yeah right. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089414) |
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Date: November 25th, 2018 10:55 PM Author: beady-eyed submissive famous landscape painting hell Yeah it’s some super insecure Jewish guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37300741) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:47 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren Hmm no pumos bumping this lately (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089274) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:49 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren NKE 72.12 USD −1.23 (1.68%) 🔻 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089283) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:49 PM Author: Metal Silver Mad-dog Skullcap Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089284) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 9:49 PM Author: Wonderful Mentally Impaired Office Ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089292) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 10:01 PM Author: galvanic athletic conference half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089399) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 10:01 PM Author: Flushed home Cons celebrating the tanking of the stock market, why? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089405) |
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Date: October 24th, 2018 10:09 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren You need your fucked up gook teeth kicked in asap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37089459) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 1:15 PM Author: Glittery snowy preventive strike NKE $71.72 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37270739) |
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Date: November 25th, 2018 10:49 PM Author: swashbuckling therapy Libs? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37300703) |
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Date: November 25th, 2018 11:04 PM Author: Very tactful stock car Ill buy in the 50s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37300811) |
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Date: December 19th, 2018 3:11 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren 68.43 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37434501) |
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Date: December 19th, 2018 3:11 PM Author: Glittery snowy preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37434506) |
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Date: December 19th, 2018 3:15 PM Author: impertinent bossy idiot Hope Drake sold these puts deep in the money and kicked some shitlib teeth in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37434537) |
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Date: December 19th, 2018 3:16 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren Libs embarrassed themselves ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37434543) |
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Date: December 19th, 2018 3:18 PM Author: impertinent bossy idiot Libs need to stick to their welfare checks and trump shitthreading and not dabble in the man’s game (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37434555) |
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Date: December 19th, 2018 8:22 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37436139) |
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Date: December 19th, 2018 9:23 PM Author: bat shit crazy gay wizard shorting is a bad idea
remember the thread a month ago where all the poasters were talking up their TSLA shorts? |
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Date: December 20th, 2018 3:07 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren 67.36 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37441312) |
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Date: December 20th, 2018 3:10 PM Author: bat shit crazy gay wizard could've shorted the S&P and gotten similar results (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37441328) |
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Date: December 20th, 2018 4:42 PM Author: arousing white parlour Nike surges 8% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 results
https://www.investors.com/news/nike-stock-nike-earnings-q2-2019/
NIKE 2Q EPS 52C, EST. 46C; REVENUE BEATS ESTIMATE $9,374 VS. $9,169
EPS BEAT BY 13%, REVENUE BEAT BY 2% |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 8:59 AM Author: arousing white parlour 1. Revenue growth will be disappointing as the company loses share to competitors after wading headlong into politics
^ Nope. 2Q revenue $9.37 billion, estimate $9.17 billion (range $9.06 billion to $9.34 billion) above highest estimates
2. Margins will disappoint as the company will have to increase investment to drive revenue
^ Nope. 2Q gross margin +43.8%, estimate +43.5%. |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:04 AM Author: aphrodisiac clown 67.53 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37445953) |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:30 AM Author: arousing white parlour Actually it's $74, market just opened so price is updated thanks to the BIG BEAT. So shorting at $80 means 8% returns when retail market is down ~15%.
That's pretty shitty returns on a short in this market, especially in retail which is a sector I cover. At any hedge fund with your longs down 15% and your shorts up 8% you would be fired. i.e. Drakemallard would be fired/zero bonused.
I'm up 40% from shorting Mattel in June 2018 when it was a $17.50 stock. About 20% avg on my other retail shorts.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAT?p=MAT&.tsrc=fin-srch |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:40 AM Author: aphrodisiac clown 73.47 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37446103) |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:43 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater How's that RH short treating you?
Date: October 8th, 2018 12:26 PM Author: imanxoxoposter
all retail has dropped by 10% given tariffs, so ur a net loser versus just shorting the XRT or XLY or VCR.
has nothing to do with NKE.
i'm short furniture myself, cogs are 50% from china and will get destroyed. i.e. HVT, RH. |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 1:09 PM Author: jade pea-brained orchestra pit brethren Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37447540) |
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Date: January 28th, 2019 7:40 PM Author: arousing white parlour RH was amazing short. Got in June after earnings pop, for Jun to August it was a $160 stock. Cost basis $150 for me though.
Today it's $132.61.
Meanwhile, NKE is above $80 today despite S&P down 10% since September 2018 when u made this big call.
RH just one of my furniture shorts, the rest include ETH and FLXS which are down 50%.
ETH just reported today, missed earnings again.
You lack basic logic and reasoning skills. You made this thread on the date you shorted, not me. |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:19 AM Author: passionate sinister kitchen Is op still in this trade? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37446025) |
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Date: December 21st, 2018 9:42 AM Author: Motley Insecure Theater Nope, covered when FQ2 data didn't show weakness as per thesis
Not the best short, not the worst |
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Date: February 14th, 2019 3:21 AM Author: Fantasy-prone roast beef organic girlfriend *DM never not killin’ it thru keen “politi-investing” strategy.tm* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37780095) |
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Date: March 1st, 2019 2:53 PM Author: vengeful forum kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37863788) |
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Date: February 27th, 2019 12:20 PM Author: arousing white parlour $86 even after shoe blew up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4068927&forum_id=2#37851327) |