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Two strikes prevented a truly difficult Hall of Fame vote #Baseball #DBG
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:30 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story Harold Baines retired in 2001 after spending most of his career as a successful DH.
While his career WAR was not Hall-worthy at 38.7, he was able to amass 2866 career hits, good for #46 on the all time list. Every player in the top 53 is either in the Hall, not yet eligible, banned (Rose), or has steroid suspicions, except for Baines and the recently eligible Vizquel who garnered 37% support in his 1st year.
What most people don't realize is that Baines was the victim of not 1 but 2 strikes that cost him valuable hit opportunities.
The 1981 strike canceled about 50 games during the year. That year Baines had 80 hits in 82 games. We can assume the strike probably cost him between 40 and 55 hits, but let's say 45 to be a little conservative.
The 1994-95 strike canceled 49 games in 94 and 18 games in 95 for 67 games total. In 1994 Baines had 96 hits in 94 games. Let's say he would have played another 40 games in 94, which is probably another 40 hits. In 1995 he had 115 hits in 127 games. Let's say he would have played another 15 games in 95, which is another 12 hits.
To add that up, we have 2866 + 45 + 40 + 12 = 2963 hits.
In 2000 Baines had 72 hits with the White Sox in 283 ABs, and in 2001 he had 11 hits in 84 ABs.
To this day the White Sox have only had 1 player reach 3000 hits, and that was Eddie Collins in 1925.
If the 2 strikes do not happen, Baines likely enters the 2000 season with 2880 hits. he probably plays more often that year and is within 20-30 hits of the mark in 2001, at which point the mediocre White Sox likely play him enough to reach the milestone, or at the very least he comes back in 2002 to collect a few hits to achieve it.
At that point he retires with slightly over 3000 hits and presents a watershed case to the BBWAA --namely, what to do with a modern player who has a very prestigious counting stat, but little else to make him Hall-worthy (but nothing to make him Hall ineligible either).
Unfortunately, Baines never got to 3000 and we never got to see the results of that decision, largely because of 2 strikes that canceled about 115 games. |
Date: November 20th, 2018 2:33 PM Author: smoky trump supporter i don't like how the HOF is so often the hall of durability & puts too much emphasis on those who played for a long time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37271229) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:35 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story perhaps, but there is value in playing a long time at an above average level. i wrote this in another thread:
>> i'd argue that being a top-tier player for a very long stretch is just as elite and hard as being the very best for a few years.
in fact, in some respects, the former is preferable if you're playing GM because you can build a team around consistent excellency. high peaks with big drops leads to overpaying and bad contracts and can wreck teams. <<
having said that, Baines isn't the type of player i'm talking about, as he had only 2 seasons with WAR of 3.0+.
But he would have made for a very interesting decision. Same with Jamie Moyer if he had reached 300 wins (retired at 269) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:47 PM Author: Titillating seedy set shitlib aka Mike Mussina
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:51 PM Author: Vermilion Den Mussina has six 5 b war seasons, two 6 bwar seasons, one 7 bwar season and one 8 bwar season. That’s a decade at an all star level. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37271345) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:55 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story cr. he was in the top 6 in CY voting 9 times as well.
LaMarcus is basically saying that taking one 5.0 WAR season and apportioning it among Mussina's 3 best years (8.2, 7.1, 6.6 --> 9.2, 9.1, 8.6) makes him a drastically better pitcher. I'm not sure I buy that. |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:37 PM Author: Vermilion Den I think Baines would be DH pwned. Look at all of the handwringing over Edgar. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37271258) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:39 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story I think I ultimately agree with this, plus his utter lack of any stellar seasons, but he'd have destroyed the notion that, barring any cheating, 3000 hits is an auto-admit to the Hall. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37271270) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:46 PM Author: Vermilion Den Who knows, the veterans committe might let him in this year anyway (depending who’s on it). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37271317) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:48 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story i don't really count the Veterans committee (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37271329) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2019 4:40 PM Author: Vermilion Den Hey, I called Baines to HOF kind of #reinsdorfed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#38571373) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2019 4:50 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#38571415) |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:48 PM Author: Titillating seedy set shitlib 94 and 95 strikes also FUCKED Maddux HARD
1.56 ERA in 1994 in 25 starts, had 202 IP - averaging over 8 IP/Starts
1.63 ERA in 1995 in 28 starts, in 209 IP.
Really on par w/ Pedro's 99 and '00 if it werent for the strikes IMO |
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Date: November 20th, 2018 2:49 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story but that didn't stop him from any career milestones, and those are still regarded as objectively great seasons.
i get what you're saying but the effect isn't the same. |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:27 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276262) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:46 AM Author: emerald piazza doctorate good thread. it's probably the baseball gods at work to prevent him from having 3000 hits and unfairly getting into the hall when he should be in the hall of very good and very durable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276392) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:56 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story i dislike when people use the term "Hall of Very Good" for players who were legit All-Star and top tier players for many years. being that good for that long makes one an excellent player in my mind.
Baines is exactly the type of player who belongs in the Hall of Very Good. he was a solid player for a long time.
If he had gotten 3000 hits it would have really been an interesting debate. My personal feeling is that he wouldn't have gotten 75% of the vote, but who knows. Plenty of writers think 3000 hits is an auto-admit stat. |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:01 AM Author: emerald piazza doctorate 3000 hits is definitely an auto-admit stat. plus, 10 years ago, before alternative stats were more widely accepted, the traditional metrics like wins and hits were even more prised. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276489) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:03 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story Agreed, but timing matters here. He retired in 2001 (or might have retired in 2002 in my scenario). Add 5 years to that and you're already at 06/07. He doesn't have the resume to get in 1st ballot (hell Biggio, who is WAY more accomplished, needed 3 ballots), and so probably would have needed 3-4 years to gain support, and by then people would have really been analyzing his numbers and advanced stats would have hurt him.
as an aside, RANK the following auto-admit stats in terms of most likely to be an auto-admit assuming a very pedestrian career otherwise:
300 wins
3000 strikeouts
600 saves
3000 hits
500 home runs |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:13 AM Author: transparent very tactful potus Ws >>>>>>>> HRs >>> Ks > H > S
300 wins is very rare going forward. |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:14 AM Author: emerald piazza doctorate 500 HRs ~== 300 wins
<small gap>
3000 hits
<decent gap>
3000 strikeouts
<big gap>
600 saves |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:17 AM Author: transparent very tactful potus Wins are now much harder to come by then hrs. There are more ks overall but I think it will get increasingly hard to accumulate a ton of them, which is why I have k over h. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276599) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:25 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story yeah i think 300 wins is a clear cut #1, and saves is a clear dead last
i personally tend to value 3000 hits more than 500 hrs and 3000 k's though |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:21 AM Author: Vermilion Den 3000 strikeouts is interesting. All in HOF except Clemens/Schilling. Sabathia will hit it next year though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276624) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 12:25 PM Author: Brindle gaming laptop resort 300 wins (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37277126) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:49 AM Author: Vigorous location selfie i saw some tweet yesterday that said "the 2019 HOF ballot is ABSOLUTELY LOADED" and i said oh cool and clicked
this is who is up next year:
Rick Ankiel (first year) Jason Bay (first year) Lance Berkman (first year) Barry Bonds (7th year, 56.4% in 2018) Roger Clemens (7th year, 57.3%) Freddy Garcia (first year) Jon Garland (first year) Travis Hafner (first year) Roy Halladay (first year) Todd Helton (first year) Andruw Jones (2nd year, 7.3%) Jeff Kent (6th year, 14.5%) Ted Lilly (first year) Derek Lowe (first year) Edgar Martinez (10th year, 70.4%) Fred McGriff (10th year, 23.2%) Mike Mussina (6th year, 63.5%) Darren Oliver (first year) Roy Oswalt (first year) Andy Pettitte (first year) Juan Pierre (first year) Placido Polanco (first year) Manny Ramirez (3rd year, 22%) Mariano Rivera (first year) Scott Rolen (2nd year, 10.2%) Curt Schilling (6th year, 51.2%) Gary Sheffield (5th year, 11.1%) Sammy Sosa (7th year, 7.8%) Miguel Tejada (first year) Omar Vizquel (2nd year, 37.1%) Billy Wagner (4th year, 11.1%) Larry Walker (9th year, 34.1%) Vernon Wells (first year) Kevin Youkilis (first year) Michael Young (first year)
Rivera is a shoo-in. Halladay probably is too, and sentimentality probably pushes him over the top regardless. beyond that, lol.
i still would vote Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa in. maybe Edgar and Mussina. |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:54 AM Author: Vermilion Den Please use the official thread. This is locked. Thx!
http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4133975&mc=97&forum_id=2 |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:54 AM Author: emerald piazza doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276446) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:56 AM Author: Vigorous location selfie roger that (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276461) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:56 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276465) |
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Date: December 10th, 2018 12:06 PM Author: Rose arousing brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37382726) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:08 AM Author: impertinent institution messiness Todd Helton had a great career although it was ballpark related (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276543) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 10:59 AM Author: dead turquoise step-uncle's house We may get an even better version of this with Nick Markakis, who just turned 35, never gets hurt and needs under 800 hits, but is thoroughly mediocre. He may literally not be good enough to hold a roster spot that long though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276481) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:05 AM Author: Vigorous location selfie that really is staggering. if pujols retires and ichiro stays gone, markakis is third among active players in hits (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276516) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:05 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story 800 hits is a shitton though. it will become an issue when he's within like 2-300.
I was worried Johnny Damon would hang on to collect 3000 hits, but he fell off at the end |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:09 AM Author: transparent very tactful potus Guy was not an all timer. Same with Adrian Beltre, who I guess will get in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276556) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:17 AM Author: Vermilion Den Vizquel evidently has 11 more hits than Baines. He’s the current high water mark for non HOFer (non-PED division). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276597) |
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Date: November 21st, 2018 11:24 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story He also missed out on maybe 65-70 hits as well bc of the strike in 94/95 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37276642) |
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Date: December 10th, 2018 10:09 AM Author: stimulating bearded background story Baines maed it!
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25495724/chicago-legends-harold-baines-lee-smith-make-hall-fame |
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Date: December 10th, 2018 12:03 PM Author: stimulating bearded background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4138306&forum_id=2#37382709) |