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any economics mastermen out there? any sense of hyperinflation risk in the US?

I worry about this all the time and need someone to talk me ...
In re: Favor House Atlantic
  12/05/18
...
In re: Favor House Atlantic
  12/06/18
yeah. this is going to happen bigly.
H.L.R.L. Menckenstine
  12/06/18
I bet everyone with a mortgage hopes so
Ghostface Billah
  12/06/18
there's almost no hyperinflation risk right now
exeunt
  12/06/18
Not unless fed goes to negative interest rates after big cra...
larry
  12/06/18
No, deflation has been and continues to be the risk. Basical...
put on these glasses or start eating that trashcan
  12/06/18
sure - but hyperinflation can also follow a poorly-managed d...
In re: Favor House Atlantic
  12/06/18
A massive debt crisis would push us into a severe recession ...
put on these glasses or start eating that trashcan
  12/06/18
actually, student loan debt is being restructured through pr...
exeunt
  12/06/18
IBR - available only if your income is below $55k per year, ...
In re: Favor House Atlantic
  12/06/18
once ur in IBR you can make a lot more than that :)
><<(^((*>
  12/07/18
Nobody here knows anything. USA is squeezing the rest of the...
.....,,.,.,.,..,.,.,,,,,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.
  12/06/18
Correct
dr. charlie brown
  12/06/18
michael pillsbury was right about everything except the part...
I like beer
  12/06/18
we printed a FUCKLOAD of straight cash during the great rece...
state your IQ before I engage you further
  12/06/18
we likely avoided outright deflation thanks to the creativit...
exeunt
  12/06/18
...
><<(^((*>
  12/07/18
Yup, American elites have effectively trashed American and g...
put on these glasses or start eating that trashcan
  12/07/18


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Date: December 5th, 2018 6:16 PM
Author: In re: Favor House Atlantic

I worry about this all the time and need someone to talk me down.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37356431)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 1:38 AM
Author: In re: Favor House Atlantic



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37358826)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 1:39 AM
Author: H.L.R.L. Menckenstine

yeah. this is going to happen bigly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37358829)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 1:41 AM
Author: Ghostface Billah (🦖)

I bet everyone with a mortgage hopes so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37358832)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 1:44 AM
Author: exeunt (0x6c542c3a976e324ccb84d594cbc084bd57597849)

there's almost no hyperinflation risk right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37358834)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 1:44 AM
Author: larry

Not unless fed goes to negative interest rates after big crash. Deflation bigger risk right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37358835)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 1:46 AM
Author: put on these glasses or start eating that trashcan

No, deflation has been and continues to be the risk. Basically no chance of even moderate inflation. Historically inflation has been driven by high economic growth AND high wage growth, and in our current system wages are structurally depressed with no catalyst in sight.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37358843)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 1:20 PM
Author: In re: Favor House Atlantic

sure - but hyperinflation can also follow a poorly-managed debt crisis

borrowing this from dalio, but there are 4 levers for dealing with a debt crisis: (1) austerity, (2) restructuring, (3) printing money and (4) redistributing wealth

there's no mechanism for restructuring student loan debt, which is in the trillions and mostly held by millenials, meaning we'll have to lean harder on the other policy mechanisms to deleverage

if we pull the money printing lever too hard, we get hyperinflation

what am i missing here?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37360950)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 10:01 PM
Author: put on these glasses or start eating that trashcan

A massive debt crisis would push us into a severe recession which drives down demand and risks another deflationary cycle. You respond to that with monetary inflation, as we did in 2008. Further, what happens to countries like Argentina or whatever wouldn't happen to the USA. The USD is the world's reserve currency and is the flight-to-safety asset in economic turmoil, and the USA has inserted itself into the center of an extremely interconnected global economy that distributes the economic dislocation across many economies which helps buffer it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37364410)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 10:02 PM
Author: exeunt (0x6c542c3a976e324ccb84d594cbc084bd57597849)

actually, student loan debt is being restructured through programs like income based repayment, pslf. if it becomes too big of a problem, expect those types of forgiveness programs to expand.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37364422)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:00 PM
Author: In re: Favor House Atlantic

IBR - available only if your income is below $55k per year, with 20-25 year lead period before you're eligible for discharge; effectively discourages people from seeking jobs paying salaries above the threshold

PSLF - available only for a narrow category of public interest jobs that are very difficult to obtain (and have you been watching the news on PSLF? most of these applications are being denied)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37364876)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2018 2:46 AM
Author: ><<(^((*> (Happy Hannukah!)

once ur in IBR you can make a lot more than that :)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37365878)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 2:29 AM
Author: .....,,.,.,.,..,.,.,,,,,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.


Nobody here knows anything. USA is squeezing the rest of the world because we have taken on debt in exchange for acting as the world's reserve currency -- google Tiffin dilemma.

USA tariffs are very moderate overall. Clinton never should have allowed China into the WTO and China has broken most promises its admission was conditioned upon.

This is the West's last chance to contain China before China controls the narrative -- social scores, politics, etc.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37358918)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:03 PM
Author: dr. charlie brown (🍊👱🏻‍♂️2020)

Correct

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37364892)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:10 PM
Author: I like beer (ratfacedman@gmail.com)

michael pillsbury was right about everything except the part where he ignores chinese demographic winter

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37364940)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:09 PM
Author: state your IQ before I engage you further

we printed a FUCKLOAD of straight cash during the great recession and it didn't do a goddamn thing. japan-style deflation is the greater risk. I guess some crazy shit could happen if china tanks hard and can't buy TSYs although the TSY market is super deep even without those goddamn chinks. US economy is resilient as fuck man it's 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37364934)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:11 PM
Author: exeunt (0x6c542c3a976e324ccb84d594cbc084bd57597849)

we likely avoided outright deflation thanks to the creativity of the bernanke fed. it was a stroke of luck we had a scholar of the great depression as fed chairman at the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37364952)



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Date: December 7th, 2018 2:47 AM
Author: ><<(^((*> (Happy Hannukah!)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37365880)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2018 2:42 AM
Author: put on these glasses or start eating that trashcan

Yup, American elites have effectively trashed American and global culture, but damn if they didn't sturdy up the old economy!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149767&forum_id=2#37365869)