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is Cali real estate market softening?

When is a good time to buy? Should people wait another 6 mo...
.,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,
  12/06/18
Next recession will devastate SF Buy then
DrakeMallard
  12/06/18
Oh God i hope so
.;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,
  12/06/18
LOL right. Why do you say that?
.,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,
  12/06/18
The next recession will take out chinese all cash buyer type...
DrakeMallard
  12/06/18
I thought prices post 2001 were stable
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  12/06/18
let me find data 10% drawdown. Less than I thought. Som...
DrakeMallard
  12/06/18
Yeah, I remember this being a key data point that Michael Bu...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  12/06/18
In the Bay Area, 100% softening. Every home in my area has u...
Stepping over Syringes in San Fran
  12/06/18
ljl yes it will devastate Bay Area... it did in 2008, u cld ...
,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.
  12/06/18
LJL @ your knowledge of how well tech is doing. You look at ...
Stepping over Syringes in San Fran
  12/06/18
Sup, Mark. How's your NOWAGbitch wife doing?
,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.
  12/06/18
Agreed re: some softening. Around me (south of you) I see s...
Jim_Kelly
  12/06/18
I could see buying on the Nevada side of Tahoe, but why Sant...
Stepping over Syringes in San Fran
  12/06/18
I love it there. Feels like a different world even though i...
Jim_Kelly
  12/06/18
Fair, I can totally see that. I'm not super into SC just bec...
Stepping over Syringes in San Fran
  12/06/18
Fuck, so basically no hope that any area where there are job...
.;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,
  12/06/18
Prop 13 means my property tax is essentially fixed ~the pric...
Stepping over Syringes in San Fran
  12/06/18
...
.,,.....,.,.,.,:,,:,,.:,:::.,,.,:,.,.::.:.,:.::,.
  12/07/18
🚨Earl🚨
:D
  12/06/18
...
guy who gets it
  12/06/18
fortunately there should be a number of people getting laid ...
Earl (The Door) Manydoors
  12/06/18
It seems to be softening in OC. I have seen some major price...
Thunder Collins
  12/06/18
so what would your strategy be NOW?
.,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,
  12/06/18
wait for the bottom to fall out. we've had like 100 straight...
:D
  12/06/18
how long though????
.,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,
  12/06/18
Wait. I think the market is going to continue to decline and...
Thunder Collins
  12/06/18
prop 13 distorts everything into a joke though.
:D
  12/06/18
It is infuriating. The fact that these fucking boomers can p...
Thunder Collins
  12/06/18
That and that Prop 13 extends to rental (I benefit) and comm...
Stepping over Syringes in San Fran
  12/06/18
wait for 2020. ballot initiative to repeal prop 13 for comme...
.,,.....,.,.,.,:,,:,,.:,:::.,,.,:,.,.::.:.,:.::,.
  12/07/18
Flat in West LA but no price reductions yet. It’s als...
nutella
  12/06/18
why? you going to buy another house? i predict the shit h...
Earl (The Door) Manydoors
  12/06/18
why 2020?
.,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,
  12/06/18
Softening in San Diego. Starting to see sub-300 condos now.
chilmata
  12/06/18
I've heard even if values go down, rents are fairly stable. ...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  12/06/18
prop 13
.,,.....,.,.,.,:,,:,,.:,:::.,,.,:,.,.::.:.,:.::,.
  12/07/18


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Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:03 PM
Author: .,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,

When is a good time to buy? Should people wait another 6 months to a year?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37360842)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:04 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

Next recession will devastate SF

Buy then

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37360845)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:06 PM
Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,


Oh God i hope so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37360850)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:08 PM
Author: .,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,

LOL right. Why do you say that?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37360866)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:30 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

The next recession will take out chinese all cash buyer types (China will get fucked hard) as well as the SV types whose comp is based on stock

If you think I'm crazy look at prices post 2001

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361023)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:44 PM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


I thought prices post 2001 were stable

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361539)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 3:07 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

let me find data

10% drawdown. Less than I thought. Someone confounded by the housing bubble starting right after

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/US-San-Francisco-home-price-office-rents-v-Nasdaq-2018-10.png

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361732)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 3:16 PM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


Yeah, I remember this being a key data point that Michael Burry was looking at in the Big Short.

Why did Bay area housing keep going up while tech dropped?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361801)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:11 PM
Author: Stepping over Syringes in San Fran

In the Bay Area, 100% softening. Every home in my area has undergone a price reduction on their listings of between 100-200k (Homes are 1.5 to 2.5mm). That said, no recession will "devastate" Bay Area real estate because Prop 13 keeps inventory low and desirable areas always have buyers.

Outskirts (like Morgan Hill and mega condo complexes in San Jose) sure, they'll bomb a bit. But SF itself, places like Palo Alto and select Peninsula cities, not a chance.

The big factors are 1.) interest rates rising 2.) property tax and 3.) my guy feeling is that a plurality of the population views their time in Silicon Valley not exceeding 10 years; everyone is looking to make a little money then exit to lower COL but 'nice' places like Denver, Boise, Portland (LOL, I know...), Seattle, Austin, etc.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37360885)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:28 PM
Author: ,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,. (AZNgirl crying in joy reading Michael Flynn's sentencing memo)


ljl yes it will devastate Bay Area... it did in 2008, u cld buy an old condo in oakland for 65k

the tech industry will get RAPED next big recession and these fuks will lose their jerbs, lots of idiots aregrossly overpaid and will be gone and default, shit will hit the fan

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361010)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:35 PM
Author: Stepping over Syringes in San Fran

LJL @ your knowledge of how well tech is doing. You look at a company like Unity and go "Oh, video games, that'll crash and burn" while clueless about the fact that they are VR/AR'ing the shit out of global industrial manufacturing and design with contracts w/ Boeing, Lockheed, DOD, etc. The whole world is being GC'd and Silicon Valley is what is helping mash the pedal down. It's not collapsing any time soon.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361059)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:37 PM
Author: ,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,. (AZNgirl crying in joy reading Michael Flynn's sentencing memo)


Sup, Mark. How's your NOWAGbitch wife doing?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361075)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 1:58 PM
Author: Jim_Kelly

Agreed re: some softening. Around me (south of you) I see stagnation and some sale prices below asking (not the universal $200k-500k above asking for every single house that was the case from 1-3 years ago).

I'd love to see $300-400k condos in Santa Cruz and Tahoe again now that I'm in a position to go for it, but not holding my breath.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361252)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:03 PM
Author: Stepping over Syringes in San Fran

I could see buying on the Nevada side of Tahoe, but why Santa Cruz?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361274)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:06 PM
Author: Jim_Kelly

I love it there. Feels like a different world even though it's 45 mins away. My stress melts away on the drive down there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361294)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:09 PM
Author: Stepping over Syringes in San Fran

Fair, I can totally see that. I'm not super into SC just because of the meth heads out there; I prefer the more chill environment of HMB/Moss Beach, which is a 15-20 minute drive for me (assuming no traffic on 92).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361320)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:09 PM
Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,


Fuck, so basically no hope that any area where there are jobs will be softening

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361323)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:13 PM
Author: Stepping over Syringes in San Fran

Prop 13 means my property tax is essentially fixed ~the price I purchased my property. How this plays out is that my San Jose home, which is now a rental, is anchored at a tax rate for ~$650k despite the purchase price in today's market being $1mm. Over time, as a landlord I gain an advantage as I can blend some of that tax spread into what I charge for rent. There is literally zero incentive to ever put it back as inventory on the market absent a total collapse of the rental market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361340)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2018 2:59 AM
Author: .,,.....,.,.,.,:,,:,,.:,:::.,,.,:,.,.::.:.,:.::,.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37365918)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:03 PM
Author: :D (classical education at home -- Bauer)

🚨Earl🚨

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361278)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:11 PM
Author: guy who gets it (donny)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361329)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:36 PM
Author: Earl (The Door) Manydoors (earl)

fortunately there should be a number of people getting laid off before me.

Hopefully I will have enough money to take advantage of buying opportunities.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361481)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:19 PM
Author: Thunder Collins

It seems to be softening in OC. I have seen some major price drops and homes being taken off the market because they aren't selling. I doubt we will ever see 2009 pricing again, but it sure seems like I nailed the peak of the market when I bought my house.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361390)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:21 PM
Author: .,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,

so what would your strategy be NOW?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361401)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: :D (classical education at home -- Bauer)

wait for the bottom to fall out. we've had like 100 straight months of job growth.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361415)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:26 PM
Author: .,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,

how long though????

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361429)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:28 PM
Author: Thunder Collins

Wait. I think the market is going to continue to decline and then plummet significantly when the next recession hits. I would look at places in San Clemente and Laguna Niguel.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361441)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:28 PM
Author: :D (classical education at home -- Bauer)

prop 13 distorts everything into a joke though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361446)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:33 PM
Author: Thunder Collins

It is infuriating. The fact that these fucking boomers can pass on their tax breaks to their kids is insane.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361467)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:39 PM
Author: Stepping over Syringes in San Fran

That and that Prop 13 extends to rental (I benefit) and commercial properties.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361499)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2018 3:02 AM
Author: .,,.....,.,.,.,:,,:,,.:,:::.,,.,:,.,.::.:.,:.::,.


wait for 2020. ballot initiative to repeal prop 13 for commercial properties already has enough signatures.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37365923)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:20 PM
Author: nutella

Flat in West LA but no price reductions yet. It’s also winter so no inventory. Can’t wait for next recession.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361396)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:36 PM
Author: Earl (The Door) Manydoors (earl)

why? you going to buy another house?

i predict the shit hitting the fan in 2020 more than 2019.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361472)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:43 PM
Author: .,,.,.,.,,,,,.......,.,,

why 2020?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361532)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 2:40 PM
Author: chilmata (Big Dawg)

Softening in San Diego. Starting to see sub-300 condos now.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361512)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 3:04 PM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


I've heard even if values go down, rents are fairly stable. Is this true? Why?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37361710)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2018 3:02 AM
Author: .,,.....,.,.,.,:,,:,,.:,:::.,,.,:,.,.::.:.,:.::,.


prop 13

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4150324&forum_id=2#37365926)