SQ. What else?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37504166)

I listened to the earnings call and got comfy, it was just freak news. I'm not worried

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37504466)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37504483)

BABA

JD

MongoDB

BZUN

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37504610)

maybe i'm dumb

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37544420)

I buy some Y every month and trust them to weather a recession well

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37504887)

I generally like industrials (*URI*, HON, Danaher, UTC, perhaps even GE if you’re a retarded lunatic prepared to gamble that the stock is below breakup value) and certain tech names that have been assfucked by short to medium term headwinds (Apple, Facebook)

Also i support YOLOing on oil its trading below most countries’ breakeven price, global demand will probably be better than implied by current prices, and the dollar will weaken (slower than expected fed rate hikes + emerging market improvement)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37507011)

But to me valuation is like a sort of gravity that doesn’t matter until it does. At some point people are going to look at Netflix burning heroic amounts of cash for new content and wonder why they shouldn’t own Facebook instead (which has no debt, huge growth potential given Instagram/whatsApp and a $50 billion cash balance). I can see this playing out across the board.

Or you can try to time the market, but I suck at that game

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37507380)

I own >60 OILU call options. May buy more soon. Gonna start going by Sheik Pumo since I’ll be swimming in oil money insjallah

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37513267)

wab buying ge transpo is a yuge win.

GE aviation alone is worth $100B with $160B of backlog and is sole sourced on boeing and comac with 50% market share on airbus.

current stock values Power at $0 forever when really I see this as mismangement and bad cycle rather than secular. baker hughes at new lowes but capex is actually ramping even if WTI is $45 (read exxon transcripts).

ge capital is now 60% GECAS which is the world's largest and most stable aircraft lessor.

basically all their businesses are at trough and under-earning and not much is priced in for positive catalysts so any decent earnings revision or guidance at all will help the stock.

finally, they make -5% on new sales for engines and power plants while making 0% on other OEM sales, but 30% margins on service and maintenance. this makes GE a pretty defensive stock in a recession as GE capital was shrunk by $250B over the past few years. all u do is collect service revenue which is more defensible, especially with better management.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37513359)

Your thesis makes sense but obviously the pile of corpses of people that have tried to catch this falling knife is pretty high

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37513599)

$100 billion of debt is what bears say.

$100 billion is the value of Aviation alone.

"it was a bad investment the past year" is never a good thesis.

and i didn't try to catch this knife yet so don't care about any emotional arguments.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37518677)

It's up 13% YTD after 1 week of trading. The best performing stock so far in the S&P 500 this year.

I.E. 2019!

Just so we're clear. We're talking about 2019.

2019.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37553443)

going to dump most of my position here.

pretty happy with my 40% return in 1 month. first fund i worked at couldn't do 5% over 2 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37730044)

MU

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37553519)

My PT is $15 post spins of healthcare, GET to wabtec, and possible sale of gecas, the lessor business.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37559060)

Ge is a broken business

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37559242)

Liabilities are a risk but the risk/reward here is compelling.

why do u think u have a magic 8 ball into HY status? What assumptions do you think get you to either higher debt or lower/negative FCF? The engine biz alone was doing $6B of FCF, GECAS is $1B, Power $0 atm, Baker Hughes $1B+ which is a 65% share, bunch of cash incoming from spin of Healthcare+ sale of Transportation. If you don't assume the spin can happen then Healthcare was $4B of FCF. I assume renewables and other businesses are $0 to be conservative.

If capex is cut to near zero because of elevated inventories and not selling any Power units (latest McCoy data shows this) then what is ur FCF assumption?

Or just give me your bear case FCF and tell me how u get there cause if this thing can do $7B of FCF the stock will rip back up to $100B overnight which is $11.70 or another 30%. Guidance was for $7B FCF in 3Q17 back when stock was $13.50 so I'm being pretty conservative here.

I'm happy to entertain lower numbers but need to know how you get there.

Stock up 18% YTD as of end of close January 14, 2019.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#37591815)

MDB?

TWLO?

ENPH?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4167617&forum_id=2#38831004)