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Peloton raising at a $8bn valuation (cnbc)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/peloton-sets-ipo-range-betwe...
Id prefer not to
  09/10/19
Lol
laser wolf
  09/10/19
Summon DrakeMallard to inform us if this is another fraud!
Fyre festival founder
  09/10/19
Do you really need to ask?
laser wolf
  09/10/19
...
DrakeMallard
  09/11/19
$8b valuation based on 30-something balding corporate men ex...
Holding Back The Years
  09/10/19
lol @ 2019 economy!
JFC
  09/10/19
...
Holding Back The Years
  09/10/19
...
alzabo
  09/10/19
I really can’t wait for the crash
pedude
  09/10/19
...
michael doodikoff
  09/10/19
sounds like a sound business model to me
engineers AND family men!
  09/10/19
...
Holding Back The Years
  09/10/19
Libs will come for this company. Smoking hot genetic female ...
mutated mutandis
  09/10/19
Some of the women are incredible. Mostly the darker skinned ...
theology is great
  09/10/19
Lol shrews
proles in Owsley County, KY partying in the street
  09/10/19
Their net retention rate is like 93%. Our CFO (his nickname ...
There's always a link in SF
  09/10/19
well they're only losing $245 mm a year I guess they'll make...
Bathhouse Barry Hussein Obama
  09/10/19
lol they have the potential to make a killing if they follow...
engineers AND family men!
  09/10/19
Big thing for them is new products. But they're basically a ...
There's always a link in SF
  09/10/19
Yeah just follow the “amazon” model
Low IQ Idiot
  09/11/19
Overall retention rate is boosted by the fact they've spamme...
DrakeMallard
  09/11/19
Explain, my understanding is that they stopped with anything...
There's always a link in SF
  09/11/19
The churn rate Peloton posted in its most recent year works ...
DrakeMallard
  09/11/19
What time frame?
Id prefer not to
  09/11/19
My wife bought one of these and has only used it once
.,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,....,:,..,:.:.,:.::,
  09/10/19
You mean you bought it.
Buck "The Club" Paulette
  09/10/19
Do any companies get reasonable valuations anymore? All thes...
`\
  09/10/19
Any company that qualifies for the S&P essentially gets ...
Id prefer not to
  09/11/19
How's this company worth more than $50 million?
,.,.,.,..,.,.,:,,:,,.,:::,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.
  09/10/19
Ssshhhh. Just take the dumb goys money.
ARE Reptile
  09/11/19
nordictrack maf
spritezero
  09/11/19


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 6:24 PM
Author: Id prefer not to

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/peloton-sets-ipo-range-between-26-and-29-per-share-looks-to-raise-as-much-as-1point2-billion.html

Peloton seeks to raise as much as $1.16 billion in its initial public offering, the company known for its connected at-home fitness equipment said Tuesday in a regulatory filing.

Peloton plans to price its shares between $26 and $29. The company is offering 40 million shares, which would value Peloton at $8.06 billion at the high end of the range.

The company sells fitness equipment, including stationary bikes and treadmills, that are equipped with screens. Users pay $39 a month to stream Peloton’s classes.

Peloton filed its initial prospectus last month. Documents showed while Peloton’s revenue is growing, its losses are widening. In the fiscal year ended June 30, Peloton reported sales grew 110% to $915 million from $435 million in fiscal 2018. Meanwhile, its 2019 net loss widened to $245.7 million, from a net loss of $47.9 million in the prior year.

Peloton, which will list under the ticker PTON, expects to trade its shares on Nasdaq.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38814913)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 6:34 PM
Author: laser wolf

Lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38814946)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 6:35 PM
Author: Fyre festival founder

Summon DrakeMallard to inform us if this is another fraud!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38814956)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 6:41 PM
Author: laser wolf

Do you really need to ask?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38814985)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 12:07 AM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38816546)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 6:36 PM
Author: Holding Back The Years

$8b valuation based on 30-something balding corporate men exercising daily to a big titted tight hottie riding a bike telling them to "go harder" locked away in their home office/man cave grunting away.

...then you've got the women displaying the bike in the middle of their house as a showpiece for visitors - untouched...yet pay a monthly fee for Chad the instructor to take them on a quickie of a ride.

JFC

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38814965)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 6:47 PM
Author: JFC

lol @ 2019 economy!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815005)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 7:12 PM
Author: Holding Back The Years



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815114)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 7:15 PM
Author: alzabo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815135)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 8:06 PM
Author: pedude

I really can’t wait for the crash

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815334)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 7:14 PM
Author: michael doodikoff



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815130)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 8:06 PM
Author: engineers AND family men! ()

sounds like a sound business model to me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815337)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 9:25 PM
Author: Holding Back The Years



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815746)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 6:40 PM
Author: mutated mutandis

Libs will come for this company. Smoking hot genetic female instructors are driving this brand's early success.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38814981)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 7:21 PM
Author: theology is great

Some of the women are incredible. Mostly the darker skinned ones.

The white women suck

It’s like exercise porn. I can’t believe it’s legal

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815154)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 7:23 PM
Author: proles in Owsley County, KY partying in the street

Lol shrews

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815167)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 8:06 PM
Author: There's always a link in SF

Their net retention rate is like 93%. Our CFO (his nickname is "IPO <name>" for all the companies he's taken public fucking LOVES Peloton and thinks it'll moon.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815340)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 8:07 PM
Author: Bathhouse Barry Hussein Obama

well they're only losing $245 mm a year I guess they'll make it up in volume!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815344)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 8:09 PM
Author: engineers AND family men! ()

lol they have the potential to make a killing if they follow the amazon/netflix model

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815353)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 8:12 PM
Author: There's always a link in SF

Big thing for them is new products. But they're basically a subscription service with hardware as a solid anchor.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38815368)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 9:04 AM
Author: Low IQ Idiot

Yeah just follow the “amazon” model

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38817329)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 12:06 AM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

Overall retention rate is boosted by the fact they've spammed a bunch of these recently with 2 year subscriptions included

You'd want a cohort retention analysis

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38816538)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 12:46 PM
Author: There's always a link in SF

Explain, my understanding is that they stopped with anything but monthly's in 2018. There will be some still on those long term plans, but is it a huge #?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38818298)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 12:58 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

The churn rate Peloton posted in its most recent year works out to be a little less than 7% on annual basis. That's an extraordinarily low figure. Planet Fitness, which operates a chain of gyms, has an annualized churn rate of 18% to 30% — and far higher than that in the first few months after people sign up for a membership, according to a recent report in The Wall Street Journal. Netflix, long the paragon of a successful digital subscription business, has a churn rate of about 9% a quarter — or about 36% a year — the Financial Times estimated last year, citing several studies.

Peloton thinks the churn figures are so important that it touts them on the second official page of its filing and talks about its low churn rate some 27 other times.

"Usage drives value and loyalty, which is evidenced by our consistently low Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn," it says in one section of the document. "Our unit economic model benefits from low Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn and high Subscription Contribution Margin," it says in another section.

But Peloton's churn rate shouldn't be taken at face value, retention experts said.

Its churn rate 'doesn't pass the smell test'

Through dividing 1 by the churn rate, you can get a rough estimate of how long the average customer sticks with the service before canceling, said Daniel McCarthy, an associate professor of marketing at Emory University's Goizueta Business School. Doing that calculation with Peloton's customer churn rate implies that the average customer would stay with its service for about 154 months, or nearly 13 years, he said.

That's almost twice as long as Pelton has existed. It's also far longer than its equipment is likely to last, McCarthy said. And when their bikes or treadmills break down, some customers may replace them, but others won't and are likely to cancel their service.

The churn rate Peloton gave "doesn't pass the smell test," McCarthy said.

Reed Hastings has built one of the leading digital subscription businesses as the CEO of Netflix, but his company's estimated churn rate is far greater than Peloton's.

Ernesto S. Ruscio/Getty Images for Netflix

Indeed, Peloton's filing makes clear that the churn rate is almost certainly understated.

For example, the company allows customers to pause the subscription service for as long as three months. But it continues to count those customers as active subscribers even while their subscriptions are paused. Such customers may not have churned yet, but they aren't paying the company any money either.

Peloton didn't disclose what portion of its connected fitness subscriber base — which hit 511,202 at the end of June — had paused its subscriptions. Nor did it reveal what portion of those who paused their subscriptions canceled them right after that interruption of service.

But there's most likely a bigger factor at play with Peloton's churn rates. Until July of last year, the company offered customers the chance to sign up for extended subscription agreements. Customers could sign up for one or two years of service and get one to three months free. Alternatively, customers who used Peloton's financing service to purchase their equipment could include with their purchase a prepaid subscription lasting one year to 39 months.

The company didn't disclose how many of its customers were still on those extended subscription plans. But it did say it would still have some customers on them into its 2022 fiscal year. Peloton includes those customers when calculating its churn rate. That's a bit misleading, because it means the churn figure includes people who haven't really had the opportunity to leave yet, Bedford said.

"Why would you leave after you prepaid with a great deal?" said Joel Shapiro, an associate professor of data analytics at Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management. "When you talk about churn rate being low," he continued, "you sort of assume that the people in the calculation should be those that actually, arguably, could churn. And when you have somebody who's under contract for two more years, it arguably doesn't make any sense to include them in the calculation."

It's quite likely that as those long-term deals expire, Peloton will see a spike in its churn rates, retention experts said. The company might well be seeing an uptick in subscription cancellations now, one year after it stopped selling its one-year plans, Bedford said.

"There's a whole bunch of people who are coming to the end of the subscription period who may not renew," he said.

New subscribers are likely distorting the picture

Another factor that's most likely helping Peloton minimize its churn rate is just the sheer number of new subscribers it has been adding. The number of people subscribing to its connected fitness service more than doubled in each of its past two fiscal years, going from 107,708 in June 2017 to 245,667 in June 2018 to more than 500,000 this past June.

Because the churn rate is derived in part from the number of overall subscribers a company has, even if it's losing a large number of subscribers, the rate can look low if it's consistently adding many more.

"Their numbers in the early years you would expect to be low," said Dave Rochlin, the executive director of the Innovation, Creativity, and Design Practice at the University of California at Berkeley's Haas School of Business.

What's more, new subscribers are often less likely to cancel a service, as they tend to be the most enthusiastic customers, Rochlin said. That's particularly true with Peloton, as its new subscribers have just spent — or are spending — thousands of dollars on its equipment, he said.

"If you think about the size of investment you're making on that piece of equipment, it's pretty likely you're not going to turn around and cancel service right away," Rochlin said.

That doesn't mean Peloton has a bad business or that it's done anything wrong in calculating or presenting its churn rate, the retention experts said. But it does mean investors shouldn't be surprised if that rate starts to tick upward in the near future.

Because of the factors that seem to be playing a role in keeping Peloton's churn rate low, "this all feels a little bit like a game that's being played," Shapiro, of the Kellogg School, said.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38818335)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 8:57 AM
Author: Id prefer not to

What time frame?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38817298)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 11:20 PM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,....,:,..,:.:.,:.::,


My wife bought one of these and has only used it once

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38816308)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 11:22 PM
Author: Buck "The Club" Paulette

You mean you bought it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38816316)



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Date: September 10th, 2019 11:22 PM
Author: `\

Do any companies get reasonable valuations anymore? All these inflated valuations = elites trying to cash out before the economy implodes

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38816313)



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Date: September 11th, 2019 9:00 AM
Author: Id prefer not to

Any company that qualifies for the S&P essentially gets an automatic 20% investment influx at whatever the prevailing price is at the time. Why not start calling $1b companies $40b companies and wait for the indexers to give you $8b?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38817311)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 10th, 2019 11:22 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,..,.,.,:,,:,,.,:::,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.


How's this company worth more than $50 million?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38816315)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 9:18 AM
Author: ARE Reptile

Ssshhhh. Just take the dumb goys money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38817358)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 11th, 2019 1:00 PM
Author: spritezero

nordictrack maf

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4341119&forum_id=2#38818347)