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A Sanders/Trump GE comes down to this
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:47 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button The most salient fact is that eligible voters who'd side with Bernie, once you include poors and youngs, outnumber voters who'd side with Trump. I don't think this is controversial; Trumpmos here are routinely suggesting limiting the franchise explicitly because they think the masses in general are much more likely to favor redistributionism.
Of course, those people are much, much less likely to vote at all. I don't think there are stats on this, but anecdotally, it seems like none of the really poor-off I know vote regularly, or have ever voted.
I'll go so far to say that based on just "normies" - voters who are tuned into normal civic life, who pay taxes, yada yada, Trump is the favorite to win reelection. They're better off with the economy the way it is and the world hasn't blown up like many predicted.
This is why I think Sanders alone can beat Trump - he can tap into a reservoir of potential voters that no one else has a chance to reaching. In Iowa they had campaign staff parked out at poultry processing plants at 11PM waiting for shift change. *That* is how populism wins. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:50 PM Author: multi-colored corner i think if Biden had coasted in the DNC he could have won based on the map.
Sanders already has too much momentum that if he is not the nominee, the left will revolt and dems get crushed.
if he is the nominee we roll the dice and prepare for the lulz. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:51 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button Biden would never get the minority turnout needed to win in swing states. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624448) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:55 PM Author: multi-colored corner yeah but the suburbs hate trump. they won all those 50/50 congressional districts. That's where Bernie is going to have real issues. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624466) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:57 PM Author: Spruce seedy generalized bond Correct. If Bernie is the nominee the election comes down to UMC suburban whites who are choosing between their hatred of trump and hatred of socialism. Map shifts from states like Michigan to states like Virginia. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624471) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:00 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button I could envision a 2020 map that has Sanders win TX and Trump win VA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624494) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:16 PM Author: Sable field even with massive abnormal turnout i don't think texas is in play for 2020. 2024+ certainly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624594) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:20 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button Sanders is going to win Hispanics by near-AA margins. Calling it now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624617) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:31 PM Author: Sable field aggressive claim. we'll have to wait and see i guess. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624666) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 8:30 PM Author: lascivious coffee pot I used to vacation regularly in south America an can verify that if there's one group that they love, it's filthy, greedy JEWS. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39626493) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 1:38 PM Author: Mint passionate really tough guy boiling water Beautiful final paragraph (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39629781) |
Date: February 20th, 2020 12:48 PM Author: Aphrodisiac mad-dog skullcap who is this fan base for Bernie, outside of the core lefties active in Dem politics? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624437) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:50 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button Bernie routinely does better with independents than the other candidates.
On top of that he's building commanding leads with Hispanics and young blacks. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:53 PM Author: Brindle athletic conference Trump had a small fan base but an even bigger % of Never Hillary folks
Guess how much of the country is Never Trump at this point? Booty Judge's used dental dam could probably get 40% of the popular vote |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:58 PM Author: buff scourge upon the earth box office You have a super thin wiener (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624480) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:01 PM Author: bearded motley locale No one cares about the popular vote. And a bunch of people bought into the notion that Trump would destroy the economy, start WW3, etc. None of that happened and things are better than we've ever seen in our lifetime, leaving Democrats to appeal to niche issues that don't resonate with most Americans. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624508) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:09 PM Author: translucent property Most Americans agree with Bernie. He's also taking a stance against climate change to secure a future for our grandchildren. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624560) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 3:55 PM Author: Low-t mauve community account student loan havers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625262) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:48 PM Author: translucent property MFCR op. Bernie has spent his entire life standing up to the greed and corruption of the corporate elite and fighting for ordinary working people.
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:55 PM Author: Sable field and now he's willing to shit in the mouths of said ordinary working people all so the woke college crowd doesn't call him racist: https://berniesanders.com/issues/welcoming-and-safe-america-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624469) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:59 PM Author: translucent property Wrong. He's running for President to make our economy, our government, and our health care system work for all of us, not just the wealthy few. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624491) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:14 PM Author: Sable field yeah, because free healthcare will work splendidly in a country with open borders. LOL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624587) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:18 PM Author: translucent property FALSE. Bernie recognizes the importance of transparency in the democratic process, especially in light of the current administration. This is why Bernie has never accepted one penny of "dark money" from political super PACS or billionaire donors. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624603) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:53 PM Author: frum candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624802) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:00 PM Author: Crystalline hairraiser brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624495) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:53 PM Author: bearded motley locale "I'll go so far to say that based on just "normies" - voters who are tuned into normal civic life, who pay taxes, yada yada, Trump is the fvaorite to win reelection."
The problem is that Trump's economy has turned a bunch of the losers into normies. I think if this election was in the middle of the Great Recession then Bernie would be in a good position. Instead, it is happening during a great economy and he is running on a platform of "burn it all down." |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:08 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button "The problem is that Trump's economy has turned a bunch of the losers into normies."
This is true, but there's a ton of people left behind.
I attend college classes and interact with zoomer. A lot of their lives are objectively horrible. They're being saddled with college debt, working two jobs, living in apartments with 3/4/5 people, in many cases having to help their parents/siblings financially - it's a nightmare.
And these aren't welfare queens or drug addicts. These are people who go to work, go to school, live decent lives, all the things they're told will help them live the American Dream. And there's a lot of them. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:21 PM Author: bearded motley locale I get that, but this was actually more pronounced in prior elections. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624619) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:08 PM Author: translucent property This is laughably wrong. Bernie believes we have a corrupt political and economic system that needs major change. That's why he's running for President. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624551) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:20 PM Author: bearded motley locale (sponsored post) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624616) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:59 PM Author: Pungent heady fortuitous meteor I think this is true but, channeling my inner doddering conspiracyminded boomer, I think the DNC/media will see a Sanders/Trump election as a chance to purge the Democratic party of socialist tendencies by throwing it to Trump. From their perspective Sanders & Trump are more or less a wash, and an embarrassing loss to DJT will give them all the ammo they need for a campaign that the American people "just don't want those crazy socialists" and the Democratic party has to get rid of them to win elections.
honestly there is no reason for OP to be a Democrat and it's kind of silly that he is. There will eventually be a divorce and the question is how soon it happens. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 12:59 PM Author: sexy internal respiration "Bernie routinely does better with independents than the other candidates."
I'd argue that's because Bernie has been very coy about specific policy proposals. A lot of people might agree with him when he sticks to his stump speech and speaks in generalities and themes, but once he starts getting challenged on what his actual plans are for things like healthcare and immigration, those numbers will probably come down. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:01 PM Author: Pungent heady fortuitous meteor Don't underestimate how long you can get by on generalities. I mean, Trump is 3 years into his presidency and he's managed to avoid giving any specific proposals. The avg person is not into this Ezra Klein run-the-numbers bullshit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624504) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:05 PM Author: sexy internal respiration He laid out a detailed tax plan back in September '16. Also he was pretty upfront about his immigration stance/building the wall, and his stance on ME policy.
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:09 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button The tax plan a) Wasn't his plan and b) was/is easily the least popular of all his policy platforms.
Coincidentally it's also the one major legislative victory of his, besides criminal justice reform. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:24 PM Author: Arrogant point I agree. Bernie is the candidate of choice for losers, queers, the mentally disturbed, the heavily indebted, criminals, single & childless women, drug addicts, omega males, and people who are generally undesirable. These people will come out in huge numbers, and in clown world, there are a lot of these people. Not sure about the rest of the post though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624638) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:26 PM Author: Pungent heady fortuitous meteor cr bernies great (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624642) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:27 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button The rich have exploited "losers" to the tunes of billions and billions of dollars, whether by taking the fruits of their labor or by selling them shit. Payback's a bitch. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624645) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:33 PM Author: bearded motley locale The "rich" aren't the reason they thought it was a great idea to party in college, do drugs, take a bunch of debt to get a useless degree in "something artsy", and now live in a Brooklyn apartment with 4 other "roomies" while wondering why they can't live like their parents do in Pittsburgh (a "far too boring to consider" accountant and "not cool at all" tech worker). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624679) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:35 PM Author: Pungent heady fortuitous meteor this is a bizarrely specific and tiny percentage of the electorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624691) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 3:51 PM Author: kink-friendly dashing tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625251) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 3:54 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button GC has taught us to hate the less fortunate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625261) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 3:55 PM Author: Low-t mauve community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625266) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 3:56 PM Author: Mint passionate really tough guy boiling water Cr He has suffered for gc and resents those who don’t always suffer for gc, who maybe tried something that wasn’t soul-crushing for a few years |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 9:00 PM Author: Drab razzle-dazzle office The far more important point is that the person he’s describing basically doesn’t exist - this caricature was stuffed in his head by the same assholes who destroyed the millennial generation and then blamed the victims for being raped. every single boomerbait article on this topic deliberately focused on anecdotes of goofy soyboys with 200k debt from NYU to confuse the real issue - millions of young people did ‘nothing wrong’ and got fucked anyway
Compared to the 60s and 70s, the average college kid in the 00s and 10s was far more likely to reject fluff and choose a job-oriented major. There were FEWER English majors (let alone stuff like feminist studies which nobody really majors in) every year from 2005 to present than there were in 1970 despite the overall number of college grads per year more than doubling.
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_322.10.asp |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 1:26 PM Author: Pungent heady fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39629696) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 1:28 PM Author: Low-t mauve community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39629701) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 2:19 PM Author: Drab razzle-dazzle office these gen x bootlickers are outrageous (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39630030) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 3:55 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button My dad moved from the rust belt in 60's because the steel mill that employed everyone in his town closed down, probably to move operations to Japan or something. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625264) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 4:43 PM Author: bearded motley locale What you don't get is that Bernie will accelerate that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625454) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:34 PM Author: Arrogant point The billionaires got rich by NOT exploiting poors in America. They got rich by outsourcing labor as much as possible to the third-world, embracing labor reducing (or eliminating tech) so that they don't have to hire anyone in the US, and SUPPORTING government handouts to American poors so that those poors can buy their shit (or the gov. can buy it for them).
If poors were meaningfully involved in ANY part of the process that made these men rich - even being EXPLOITED as labor - instead of being passive consumers of product paid for directly or indirectly by taxpayers, they wouldn't be poor. |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 2:32 PM Author: adulterous deer antler menage this is very cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624971) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 3:57 PM Author: Low-t mauve community account So you at least agree that billionaires caused this and need gas chamber? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625273) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 1:28 PM Author: Low-t mauve community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39629702) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 4:42 PM Author: bearded motley locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625450) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 4:44 PM Author: blue concupiscible home jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625462) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:30 PM Author: bearded motley locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624663) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:30 PM Author: translucent property Most working class families will support Bernie. Bernie believes we have a corrupt political and economic system that needs major change. That's why he's running for President. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624664) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:36 PM Author: Arrogant point I doubt that. But, if you're right, and Sanders has his way, they'll get a change alright, but probably not the change they're thinking of. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624693) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:38 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button GC is a plague upon society and any effort to kill it is a net plus. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624704) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:38 PM Author: Arrogant point (Hitler) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624709) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 4:32 PM Author: bearded motley locale (Stalin) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625419) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 5:28 PM Author: Low-t mauve community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625673) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:38 PM Author: translucent property They will vote for Bernie because he will bring meaningful change to Washington. He's running for President to make our economy, our government, and our health care system work for all of us, not just the wealthy few. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624705) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:39 PM Author: Arrogant point You got me. Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624710) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 1:53 PM Author: frum candlestick maker cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624805) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 2:20 PM Author: Cerise Cuckoldry Roast Beef You really think Bernie can win over 50 percent of the delegates? How? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624924) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 2:42 PM Author: translucent property Majority of blacks and hispanics will vote for Bernie because he believes we have a corrupt political and economic system that needs major change. That's why he's running for President. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625012) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 2:21 PM Author: French dysfunction national Black turn out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39624927) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 5:50 PM Author: big-titted factory reset button Yea this is a simplified version of the OP. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39625775) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 8:11 PM Author: learning disabled aqua philosopher-king legend In 1988, Bernie toured the USSR and gave a speech praising their subway system and cultural events "for which the top ticket only costs a dollar." I think he loses the suburbs once we get closer to a general (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39626430) |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 8:16 PM Author: Indigo heaven wagecucks economics have never trumped culture. a lot of the poors hate fags and political correctness. no matter how much you pray for class consciousness
if bernie stuck with gun rights and closed borders, he’d be a far more dangerous candidate imo |
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Date: February 20th, 2020 8:33 PM Author: At-the-ready Carnelian Institution Karate bernie will defeat trump because first time presidential voters who turned out YUGE for trump like myself will defect to bernie, whereas absolutely zero shitlibs will defect to trump (smart dems realize this which is why sanders is #1 right now)
its as simple as that. lol@ this fucking retarded unnecessary poli schi shithead 15 iq discussion ITT |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 1:30 PM Author: citrine boltzmann parlour I voted for Hillary and will vote for Trump over Bernie. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39629719) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 1:35 PM Author: Insecure Indian Lodge Yarmulke Uh no. Bernie's unfavorable are super high with Obama-Trump, Romney-3rd party, and Romney-no vote people. I also think against Bernie, Trump picks up some affluent Romney-Clinton voters.
Bernie 2016 could have beaten Trump. But Bernie 2020 is super shitlib who has moved to the far left on culture, identity politics, immigration, environment. |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 2:50 PM Author: spectacular hospital He can certainly beat Trump. But Iowa and NH didn't reveal any big pool of non-voters or previously disengaged voters coming out as part of some revolution. Nor did the Obama to Trump counties turn out for Bernie (ironically, Butti was the winner in those rural parts in both states). Late deciders broke against him too. He has the same general electoral map and coalition as the other dems and some important vulnerabilities (although each of the candidates has at least one big deficiency with regard to appealing to all segments of the obama coalition). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39630222) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 3:22 PM Author: multi-colored corner https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/facebook-considers-transparency-around-posts-from-political-staffers.html (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39630379) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 3:29 PM Author: spectacular hospital I don't care about Bloomberg. I think it's naive to argue that Bernie is going to drastically change the political landscape and turnout people who don't normally vote. People who love arguing politics on the internet tend to vastly overstate the general popularity of the non-mainstream "revolutionary" candidates. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39630412) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 5:45 PM Author: bearded motley locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39631019) |
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Date: February 21st, 2020 5:49 PM Author: Indigo heaven wagecucks he won’t but retarded angry millennials need to learn how much the vast majority of americans hate them and/or their ideas. a crushing defeat for bernie will bring out a glorious purge within the democratic party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4449359&forum_id=2#39631032) |