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Circuit breaker tomorrow?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 31st, 2020 6:54 PM Author: Maniacal dead hall Grim news since 4pm. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910597) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 6:55 PM Author: violent clown such as? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910611) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 6:56 PM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage The president telling people to prepare for two to three weeks of Hell isn't normally a buy signal. But I don't see a circuit breaker. Just a steady emptying down the drain. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910628) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:31 PM Author: Federal police squad sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39911967) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:32 PM Author: irate cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39911973) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:13 PM Author: emerald bonkers gaming laptop 100,000 -- 240,000 is a death rate of less than 0.1%, so it doesn't seem all that bad considering that some had predicted the death rate would be more than 1%. And 240,000 deaths is still a small fraction of the average annual deaths of 2.8 million or so. So, all in all, not all that bad. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912683) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:14 PM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage Sounds like we really overreacted on 9/11. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912692) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:40 PM Author: Dull vibrant space deer antler To put this in perspective, under 50k soldiers died in Vietnam and just under 300k died in combat in WWII. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912874) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:58 AM Author: boyish khaki meetinghouse Please reflect on whether this analogy make sense. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913386) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 1:11 AM Author: Cocky stage azn Yeah, not a great analogy; the deaths in those wars were spread out over years. This is a few 100k in a couple months. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913444) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 1:45 AM Author: Dull vibrant space deer antler It’s not an analogy. It’s good perspective because Vietnam was another case of national hysteria where the loss of American life was a major point of contention. WWII was sort of the opposite - the narrative is that we sacrificed a generation to save the world. This is somewhere in between in terms of likely casualties and will probably end up being closer to WWII. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913553) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:50 PM Author: Harsh bright base Oh no fewer 80-90yos (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912953) |
Date: March 31st, 2020 6:55 PM Author: disturbing state sneaky criminal https://i.imgur.com/lgQSDLl.mp4 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910609) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 6:55 PM Author: razzmatazz gay box office brethren What grim news? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910613) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 6:56 PM Author: Maniacal dead hall Trump speech and the higher than expected new case increase (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910619) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 6:57 PM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage Cases and deaths are proceeding exactly according to projections where the U.S. is incompetent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910633) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 1:15 AM Author: Know-it-all Orchestra Pit Athletic Conference Ugh we are so incompetent at saving boomers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913467) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 6:56 PM Author: Apoplectic fighting garrison toaster PRICED IN! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910623) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 6:57 PM Author: curious mad-dog skullcap resort maybe, though i suspect we'll see more of a steady grind down rather than the panic dumps from before
the market fears unknowns more than it fears large numbers of expected deaths
if we are on track for (say) 100K deaths, that sucks from a humanitarian perspective but the market will probably be okay with it so long as the daily estimates confirm that this number is realistic |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:27 PM Author: Magical filthpig It's insane how little this market seems to care about bad news. Record-shattering unemployment, stocks go up. Extend "15 days to stop the spread" to "45 days to, we don't know, maybe kill 200k people," stocks go up. Consumer confidence cratering, stocks go up. Projected negative GDP growth, stocks go up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39911935) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:16 PM Author: Motley chrome whorehouse Market already priced those things in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912706) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:48 AM Author: Titillating locale associate That’s all counteracted because the market is simultaneously pricing in a Biden presidency. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913354) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:30 PM Author: Cerebral outnumbered school cafeteria cuckold cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39911961) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:34 PM Author: Charismatic bull headed business firm tattoo Yeah. We took the elevator down the first time. Now it will be an escalator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912412) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 7:09 PM Author: Pearl psychic persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39910731) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:14 PM Author: Maniacal dead hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39911827) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:34 PM Author: Crystalline concupiscible theatre Yep (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39911983) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:35 PM Author: Grizzly soul-stirring fat ankles not happening unless real bad news starts dropping again (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39911990) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:39 PM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage like, I don't know, Q1 earnings? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912029) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:42 PM Author: Grizzly soul-stirring fat ankles Only if they're more TTT than expected or if evidence starts to mount that things are going to spiral out of control economically speaking (everyone knows fraudvirus is not going to spiral out of control at this point) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912056) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:59 AM Author: Rusted Sinister Locus that's when i plan to buy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913394) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 2:40 AM Author: Fragrant sound barrier Pretty sure those are already priced in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913657) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:39 PM Author: Misanthropic faggotry genital piercing Even then, QE n+1 will get started (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912442) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:43 PM Author: impressive insanely creepy indirect expression lodge We’re hit the bottom. Vix is collapsing and credit markets are recovering.
The only people selling at this point are day traders (ie the retarded) but they won’t move the market. And China is back to work
If you sell at these valuations given the circumstances, you really shouldn’t be managing your own money |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 9:59 PM Author: Dull vibrant space deer antler Link to credit markets recovering? There’s a wave of bankruptcies and defaults coming. Tons of IG debt is going to get downgraded to junk. Loan origination is still on ice. And lol at what’s about to happen to real estate debt. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912214) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:03 PM Author: Infuriating Fuchsia Party Of The First Part Seems insane to just assume this will all work out. It might, but nobody has a good understanding of the systemic financial risks from a prolonged lockdown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912247) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:04 PM Author: impressive insanely creepy indirect expression lodge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/credit-market-gloom-returns-on-signs-of-long-virus-fight-ahead
You realize Jerome is playing in corporate credit markets, yes? |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:07 PM Author: Dull vibrant space deer antler Who could possibly read the second sentence of that article and think that everything is ok? Oracle downgraded on Monday, met with a flood of demand on Tuesday. Perfectly healthy markets! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912645) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:04 PM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage Now do Energy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912256) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:07 PM Author: impressive insanely creepy indirect expression lodge I dunno man you’re the one that makes a new thread every day about non apples to apples growth rates
Maybe it’s the finance in me that hates that sort of flaw (ie like using unadjusted 2020 revenue to calculate revenue growth in 2021 and making a huge deal about it being 300%) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:39 PM Author: Big haunted graveyard gas station interesting
can you explain your two points? i just want to understand
1) "non apples to apples growth rates" 2) using unadjusted 2020 revenue to calculate revenue growth in 2021 |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:30 PM Author: impressive insanely creepy indirect expression lodge I think this is really really self explanatory but here goes.
1. Daily new infections are totally meaningless if you’re not testing anywhere near the same # of people each day. If you disagree I won’t respond
2. Say a comet hits your factory in year X such that that you only earn $1 of revenue that year (vs the $1 million you expected). But you recover in year X + 1 and earn $1.1 million. A retarded person would say you had revenue growth of 109999900% that year. This would be wrong because it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. 💡 |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:44 PM Author: Big haunted graveyard gas station ty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912897) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 10:17 AM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage 1. I agree. I’m just posting apples. Everyone then picks an orange and argues with it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39914954) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:16 PM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage huh? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912702) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:04 PM Author: Violent bistre doctorate menage Lol at credit markets recovering. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912252) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:40 PM Author: Misanthropic faggotry genital piercing Tcr. We have a Fed bandaid but this will not end well (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912453) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:50 PM Author: excitant aggressive toilet seat famous landscape painting lol remember when benzo said “short everything” a few days ago, then the market ripped up 1,300 pts. What a fucking retard. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912521) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 1:01 AM Author: vivacious coldplay fan I just moved some money getting ready to buy in, but I wouldn't call it the bottom yet. Implied volatility is still way below historical volatility indicating prices are incredibly discounted. While that makes assets a great buy, this discounting is not stopping. It's accelerating, at least in the short term. Oil is at $20 now holy shit.
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Date: March 31st, 2020 10:47 PM Author: Vigorous Bearded Church lol no. Dow doesn't care about dead ppl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912495) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:12 PM Author: clear diverse regret especially when those dead are also dead weight. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912677) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:10 PM Author: Dull vibrant space deer antler My guess is we settle into a long slow march down on a steady stream of grim virus and corporate news. There is way less uncertainty but no light on the horizon absent a cure. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912659) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:13 PM Author: effete jade jewess main people I bought spy puts today 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912682) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:17 PM Author: overrated community account I'm all in on SPXS (3x SP500 bear ETF). Got 5% today, 4% after hours so far. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912718) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 2:25 AM Author: effete jade jewess main people I had sqqq buys that didn't fill by a few cents uuugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913632) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:25 PM Author: multi-colored cruel-hearted home Yes. Tomorrow and Thursday are going to be ugly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912765) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:31 PM Author: Harsh bright base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912807) |
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Date: March 31st, 2020 11:43 PM Author: Sticky gunner philosopher-king No I need another bump. So I could short $1million cad. But cad is already beat up (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39912886) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 2:08 AM Author: Charismatic bull headed business firm tattoo S&p down 3.3% right now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913605) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 2:10 AM Author: wine forum Gay bear tendies back on the menu (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913607) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 2:10 AM Author: copper frozen prole pit puts gonna print (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39913609) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:27 PM Author: multi-colored cruel-hearted home Almost time for the post-lunch panic when people freak out about tomorrow’s coming unemployment numbers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39915976) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:29 PM Author: High-end 180 senate mad cow disease unemployment numbers or jobs report?
Job report won't have full effect |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:32 PM Author: arousing crackhouse turdskin Why freak out when the entire country is shut down? Unless an investor has been asleep the past 2-3 weeks straight, this isn't some sort of surprise. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39916032) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:31 PM Author: arousing crackhouse turdskin I don't see why everything negative wouldn't be priced in already. The entire country is literally shut down so any negative numbers should not be shocking to anyone.
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:33 PM Author: Greedy chapel lol is this the same poster that keeps "buying the dip" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39916034) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:33 PM Author: arousing crackhouse turdskin How's any of this a surprise? Everything is closed.
No one is playing 'Hide the Ball' right now. |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:35 PM Author: honey-headed area therapy There had been some optimism that the trump pills worked and we might be done with this by the end of April.
That’s starting to seem like a pipe dream. |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 12:38 PM Author: Grizzly soul-stirring fat ankles That is kind of balanced out by the fact that it's looking like the fraudvirus is going to have a five figure death toll versus the million+ hysterical people were talking about a few weeks ago. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39916081) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 1:09 PM Author: Sticky gunner philosopher-king Only made $2k should've shorted cad more aggressively this morning. Hopefully there is another bump this week. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39916308) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 1:25 PM Author: Saffron abnormal fortuitous meteor cool man keep us posted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39916413) |
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Date: April 1st, 2020 1:28 PM Author: Sticky gunner philosopher-king My short signal for cad is 1.546 but unlikely to breach that until next stock pump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4494449&forum_id=2#39916448) |