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How I will be Trading the SP500 in April (cowgod)
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Date: April 5th, 2020 12:55 PM Author: violent home pistol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mrHETRc1Jg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946308) |
Date: April 5th, 2020 1:10 PM Author: brilliant quadroon Market may go down or it may go up? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946388) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:11 PM Author: violent home pistol Will break through 2350 support and then freefall imho (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946392) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:12 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend Freefall at this point doesn't make much sense when we're nearing a light at the end of the tunnel and because the fed has already stepped in. Also, investors have already had time to digest what's going on and price everything in. This isn't like other recessions where there are a number of surprises along the way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946397) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:31 PM Author: violent home pistol There were multiple "surprises" in 2008 and it took many months to bottom out. This bullshit has only been going on for a month or so, it only feels like longer.
Also, I am going with the "controlled demolition" theory to an extent - elites using the virus as a cover to air out some yet-to-be-revealed dirty laundry. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:33 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend The elites would lose massively if the bottom actually fell out. Most billionaires have their wealth tied up in company stock that can't simply be dumped, so if the Dow does to 10k or whatever, they'd stand to lose probably half (or more) of their wealth.
Not sure what incentive the "evil elites" have for allowing everything to fall apart since they'd lose like nearly everyone else. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:34 PM Author: violent home pistol Fed comes in after the bottom falls out. By "bottom falling out" I mean hitting 2000 on the S&P or close to it.
Billionaires can lose money too, Buffett bought and sold airlines within the last month or so. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:37 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend I can't imagine there will be more panic selling at this point. The Dow went from nearly 30k down to nearly 18k in a 2-3 week period already. Anyone who was in serious panic mode likely sold everything back in March. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946563) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:45 PM Author: violent home pistol Why sell at all to begin with? Why not just price in the recovery?
I am assuming that this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. i.e. for whatever's been causing the issues in the repo market, probably Deutsche Bank of HSBC. The virus would provide convenient cover for this sort of thing. This is the sort of thing that seems unlikely now, but will have seemed unevitable if it were to happen. Similar to the correction we've already had. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:48 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend I'm sure a lot of people, especially those nearing retirement, sold out completely out of fear when the Dow was dropping like a rock during that 2-3 week period. Most likely, those in major panic mode have already left the market entirely. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946651) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:37 PM Author: Zippy kitty cat senate https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buybacks-are-the-dominant-source-of-stock-market-demand-and-they-are-fading-fast-goldman-sachs-2019-11-06
Buybacks drove the "bull" market the past 10 years and they are fading fast. I don't see us reaching 29K Dow any time soon. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:40 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend The Dow may not reach 29k for 2-3 years, but certain invidual companies will have their share price bounce back quickly once this virus is resolved. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946596) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:42 PM Author: Zippy kitty cat senate Probably, like Amazon, etc.
But the rest of the S&P 500 will be shit for many years and the only way Dow will reach 29K is through massive inflation of the USD.
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:45 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend Correct. Companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Shopify, Visa, Tesla, etc. will see their share price bounce back while most other companies will trade sideways for another 2-3 years before any kind of significant upward move. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946629) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:46 PM Author: violent home pistol (Expert) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946639) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:49 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend I'm not some multimillionaire investor, but I've been in the markets since the last recession. At times like these, investors tend to put money in cash-rich companies with stellar balance sheets. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946655) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:50 PM Author: Zippy kitty cat senate Fwiw, I wouldn't be dumping more money into index funds right now, which is normally what they recommend
I think a lot of companies' stock will go downward for years to come |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:50 PM Author: zombie-like excitant state Shopify and Tesla are strong companies now? Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946674) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:51 PM Author: violent home pistol Uber is conspicuously absent from his list haha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946682) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:52 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend Despite operating at a loss, they are strong companies now due to the perception of having major upside over the next 5 years.
On the other hand, a company like Snapchat or Uber doesn't have the same perception and will likely suffer during a downturn. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:26 PM Author: Mischievous wrinkle Because it makes a lot of sense to dump everything you've got down in the hole? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946484) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:11 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend No idea, but the US will be turning the corner on the corona bullshit in probably 2-3 weeks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946393) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:12 PM Author: violent home pistol Why does anyone think this? I can see the acceleration in Deaths per my projection but no signs of this thing slowing down. http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4484891&mc=15&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946398) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:13 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend The deaths don't matter since those are people who caught the virus weeks or a month ago (for example, most people who die today have probably been in the hospital since early/mid March) and isn't forward looking. What matters is the rate of new infections.
As long as the rate of new infections goes down, the country has turned the corner. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:18 PM Author: violent home pistol Agree to disagree and we'll see what unfolds. I trust NOTHING but the Deaths because we have no idea how many people have this thing. I happen to think that social distancing isn't doing as much as people think it is because of how contagious thing thing is. People are catching it in grocery stores etc.
With that said, cases are still going way up imho. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:20 PM Author: Fear-inspiring public bath Italy and spain both slowing now. I predict italy off quarantine in 2 weeks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946447) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:22 PM Author: violent home pistol The deaths look flat to me in Italy, they haven't decelerated enough.
Also if the virus persists in warm weather it will just come back with a vengeance imho. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:44 PM Author: Fear-inspiring public bath It is 525, peak was 900. # of critically ill also declined. Italy will be up and running by end of april (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946619) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:57 PM Author: violent home pistol What does re-opening accomplish unless you've decided that it's a fraudvirus and are telling olds/asthmatics/Gen X to stay home? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946724) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:20 PM Author: Boyish market organic girlfriend Yes, we'll have to agree to disagree because the real metric is the new cases of infection, imo...not the death rate. Not sure why the market would care about what ended up happening to someone who caught it back in early March (before any protective measures were put in place) and is dying today.
Also, the fact that the best and brightest in the medical, pharmaceutical, and financial industries around the world are working constantly to resolve this makes for a bad bet to think everything will just collapse. |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:24 PM Author: violent home pistol I just don't care about being "late" by a week or two on this. I will take a pretty accurate lagging indicator over a bullshit leading indicator any day. People have a tendency to trust "data" and don't build in any margin for bullshit. Yes, if we actually knew how many cases there were (i.e. sent 330 million kits out in the mail), I would set my watch to that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946475) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:37 PM Author: Hairraiser coldplay fan Link to people catching it in grocery stores? I thought 80% of transmissions were between family members and roommates. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946576) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:46 PM Author: violent home pistol Nobody knows who has it. One family member goes to grocery store, the rest catch it. I'm just surmising. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946635) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:14 PM Author: brilliant quadroon I agree with this. Will be about the slower than expected recovery. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946409) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:46 PM Author: marvelous haunted graveyard do stocks have phenotypes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946632) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:46 PM Author: violent home pistol No imho (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946638) |
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Date: April 5th, 2020 1:49 PM Author: sinister sticky center dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39946653) |
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Date: April 7th, 2020 8:02 PM Author: violent home pistol Im 5`10`` and am still Shorting the market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4499381&forum_id=2#39964463) |