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Ranking the 10 Trump 2016 states most likely to flip to Biden
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Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:15 PM Author: smoky church From most to least likely:
1. Arizona 2. Michigan 3. Pennsylvania 4. Georgia 5. NE-02 6. Wisconsin 7. North Carolina 8. Florida 9. Texas 10. Ohio |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 5:33 PM Author: razzle-dazzle up-to-no-good telephone hairy legs Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:15 PM Author: ,,,.,,,,;.,.,::;,,;..,,::.,.,,..:,:,.:..:,..:.::,
From most to least likely: 1. Arizona
2. Michigan
3. Pennsylvania
4. Georgia
5. NE-02
6. Wisconsin
7. North Carolina
8. Florida
9. Texas
10. Ohio
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40538357) |
Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:15 PM Author: flatulent cuck den Won’t happen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40538361) |
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Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:16 PM Author: cracking range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40538364) |
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Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:30 PM Author: galvanic tan coldplay fan location If mi pa wi aren’t at the top of the list you’re an obvious retard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40538475) |
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Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:41 PM Author: racy plaza lol, maybe ur the retard? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40538561) |
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Date: July 3rd, 2020 12:01 AM Author: smoky church Arizona is the most vulnerable. Maricopa County makes up 60% of the electorate, and there is a mass influx of white liberals from CA into the county. The Latinos in AZ are also pretty liberal.
WI is lower on the list because of favorable demographics and recent trends. Its only major city is Milwaukee, which is smaller than Philly and Detroit. Unlike the Philly suburbs and Oakland County outside of Detroit, the suburban Milwaukee counties (WOW) are GOP strongholds. Trump actually underperformed there in 2016, getting around 60%. He will probably improve there this year. And Green Bay, Deer Valley, southwestern WI, have trended red. Even in 2018, a blue wave year, Walker lost by just 1%. |
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Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:40 PM Author: racy plaza PA would go to Trump if the election were today. I'm on the ground here in a purple district. Trust me. Ppl are fed up with the shitlib nonsense. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40538551) |
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Date: July 2nd, 2020 10:42 PM Author: Cerebral Stag Film bucks? this is my sense too
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Date: July 2nd, 2020 11:58 PM Author: smoky church Explain. Trump is doing even worse in Philly suburbs than in 2016. His white working class support has weakened as well. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40539101) |
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Date: July 3rd, 2020 6:46 PM Author: dashing quadroon I also have connections to the philly suburbs and disagree. I think Biden will do significantly better than HRC there. Biden basically IS a philly suburbs guy, having grown up in new castle county delaware. He has natural appeal there PLUS philly suburb republicans include a lot of people who "held their nose and voted trump" in 2016 and have been turned off subsequently. Meanwhile, there are probably ZERO HRC->Trump/NoVote voters.
Biden will also probably get better turnout in the city.
I would almost bet my life on Biden winning PA if the election were held today.
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Date: July 3rd, 2020 8:08 PM Author: smoky church Agreed. If the election were held now, Biden wins PA by 3-5 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40543433) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 5:30 PM Author: Know-it-all Yapping Ticket Booth Azn This.
Friends I know in Delco and Bucks who voted for him last time are def not voting for him again. He turned out to be the loudmouth in the bar who talks a big game but then ends up doing shit. PA people aren't fooled by that kind of guy twice because we all know that guy. |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:52 PM Author: Fragrant partner stage Rudolph on the record for this important matter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557558) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 10:45 PM Author: Laughsome Garnet Hissy Fit Pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40558806) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:00 PM Author: Wonderful rusted trust fund corner CR. Trump killed his chances in PA when he targeted the Philly suburb Republicans by snatching their state income tax and mortgage deductions. Literally decided to cut taxes for everyone except 100k GOP-lean voters in PA, so he could also target a few million NY/NJ/CT/MA and CA limousine libs who have looked down on him for 50 years and backed Her to the hilt. That’s what he gets for handing over his policy making to Ryan and the cuck caucus. Losing the 200k+ PA income bracket plus Biden way outperforming Her with PA non college whites and philly blacks (especially with a black VP) plus four more years of old whites dying and millennials/Gen Z aging and radicalizing equals PA is lost. Trump has to use Fox News mind control to win back olds in FL and AZ and then go all in for Wisconsin and he can still squeak it out, but he is trying to draw the last 2 in the deck to beat the Dems full house. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557323) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:01 PM Author: smoky church MFCR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557330) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 10:45 PM Author: Laughsome Garnet Hissy Fit Pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40558808) |
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Date: July 3rd, 2020 6:36 PM Author: smoky church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40542927) |
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Date: July 3rd, 2020 7:54 PM Author: Supple Aqua Pervert Water Buffalo If the blacks actually get out and vote I think Georgia could go blue. I think that’d be the first time since Dixiecrats were a thing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40543367) |
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Date: July 3rd, 2020 8:08 PM Author: smoky church Bill Clinton won GA in 1992 by 0.5%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40543429) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 5:31 PM Author: Know-it-all Yapping Ticket Booth Azn That's a weird year though because Perot siphoned off Bush votes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557158) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:03 PM Author: smoky church Yeah. Exit polls showed that Perot took voters equally from Bush and Clinton. My guess is if Perot had not run, Bush would have won MT, NV, CO, GA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557334) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:55 PM Author: Fragrant partner stage Trump won Georgia by 6. You're deluding yourself. There will not be a swing that big. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557568) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:57 PM Author: Dun Chapel Indirect Expression yeah but along with minorities the largest growing demographics of GA are suburban college educated whites, who needless to say are total idiots (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557580) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 8:11 PM Author: smoky church He won GA by 5. A 5 point swing isn't that big. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40558016) |
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Date: July 4th, 2020 6:12 PM Author: smoky church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40547545) |
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Date: July 5th, 2020 10:02 PM Author: smoky church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40552792) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 5:26 PM Author: smoky church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557138) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:01 PM Author: Dun Chapel Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557331) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:06 PM Author: smoky church Yes. OH and IA have become the GOP versions of CO and VA: former swing states that have become realigned due to the GOP becoming the party of working class whites. Even in the blue wave of 2018 the GOP did well there, compared to MI/PA/AZ. As for TX, Trump only won it by 9 points, the worst performance by a Republican there since Dole 1996. The college educated whites who have moved there in the past decade are Dems. Trump did worse in Dallas/Houston/Austin than prior Republicans and even lost Houston's suburban Fort Bend County, the first Republican to lose it since Goldwater 1964. In 2018 midterms Cruz lost GOP stronghold Tarrant County and did even worse in the major suburbs than Trump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557352) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:55 PM Author: Wonderful rusted trust fund corner Also Texas demographic shift is massive since 400k old white people will have died since Nov 2018 by Nov 3rd and roughly 500k net new residents added who will be specifically and easily targeted by Dems for registration drives and turnout. Even backing out children and non voters you are looking at a demographic shift that’s likely to put hundreds of thousands of votes in the Dem column and subtract hundreds of thousands from the GOP. Not to mention that black turnout in Texas in 2008 and 2012 was huge but went into the toilet in 2016, so there were roughly 100k less black votes for Her than for Obama in 2012, but turnout shot back up in 2018 with a competitive and nationalized senate race and if the Dems nominate a black VP for Biden, with Dems also targeting like 8 competitive house races and potentially a black Dem senate nominee that’s likely another pool of hidden strength worth hundreds of thousands of additional votes. Blacks in Texas are also fucking triggered as hell about the protests and confederacy symbols. Trump beat Her in Texas by 800k votes and Cruz beat Beto by 200k votes. Texas is too expensive to target unless it’s close late, and even if it is Trump and Biden will probably underinvest bc a Biden win in Texas would likely require a huge wave anyway. But it’s going to be way closer than people realize. I would still bet Trump to win but would not bet him to win by more than 5 and even a close loss by the Dems could be enough to trigger massive realignment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557570) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 7:13 PM Author: smoky church CR analysis. I think Trump wins TX by 5-7 and GA by 2-3. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557677) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 6:48 PM Author: smoky church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557539) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 7:14 PM Author: vigorous saffron parlor feces This thread is Choi talking to himself (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40557685) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 7:22 PM Author: Fragrant partner stage Here are the actual margins from 2016. Hard to imagine more than a 5 point swing. Would be interesting to know what the historical largest swings for an incumbent POTUS are between cycles.
Ten most likely are almost certainly:
Michigan .3 Pennsylvania .72 Wisconsin .77 Florida 1.2 NE2 2.24 Arizona 3.55 NC 3.66 Georgia 5.13 Ohio 8.13 Texas 8.99
Let's not forget that Trump was razor close in a couple states too:
New Hampshire .88 Minnesota 1.52
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Date: July 6th, 2020 8:10 PM Author: smoky church Nixon 1972 was an insane swing compared to 1968. In his re-election he won the national PV by 23 points and won every state except MA. Amongst the 49 states he won, all of them were by margins of greater than 5%. In 19 states, McGovern failed to win a single county. Nixon also won traditional Dem strongholds that no Republican has won since such as Cook County IL, Hennepin County MN, Orleans County LA, Fulton County GA, Erie County NY, Queens County NY. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40558008) |
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Date: July 6th, 2020 8:28 PM Author: Fragrant partner stage Ok but that's not my point. What was the shift between elections.
Just looking at 2012, Obama lost ground by 10 points or so in a few deep red states , including Utah which went bigger for Romney. But more typical was a few percentage point shift. This suggests anything beyond NC or so is pretty unlikely for biden
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Date: July 6th, 2020 8:37 PM Author: smoky church When incumbents win re-election, they usually win by a bigger margin than their initial victory. Exceptions are Wilson 1916 and Obama 2012. Nixon gained 24 points nationally from 1968 to 1972.
Yes, Obama did worse almost everywhere in 2012 compared to 2008, due to deterioration with white voters. |
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Date: July 7th, 2020 6:49 PM Author: smoky church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40563516) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:22 PM Author: smoky church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4575501&forum_id=2#40569364) |