middle class fleeing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40719793)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40719803)

any idea where you're going?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40719817)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40721723)

You can tell from anecdotal things that some seriously abnormal stuff is happening. The number of mattresses and street litter caused by people who just leave stuff on the corner for the garbageman is huge, with junk/garbage everywhere in the streets. I'm also seen things like flour and other basic food essentials being thrown out rather than packed, because it makes less sense to take bulky stuff like that when you move.

Also, the pigeons are thinner (I know this sound wacky, but to me it means that there is less food being thrown out/wasted from restaurants).

When it comes to commercial real estate like storefronts and restaurants, it is even worse but it has been bad since the lockdowns started. Stuff is boarded up and getting more vandalized by the day and homeless tent cities are starting to accumulate in new areas. I'm sure 30-50% of restaurants and businesses will close (even though that is the natural way of the restaurant industry).

Paradoxically though, there are less "lifestyle/scammer" homeless people out, with it now being extremely sketchy drug addicts or legit crazies, which makes sense because there is way way WAY less foot and car traffic and thus less money to be had panhandling.

I've been asked for money much less since this pandemic started, but I've also felt like I needed to take my gun or another weapon with me when I go out way more.

Older businesses that are paying much lower rent are fine or are muddling through. Same with people who live in rent controlled units (at least for now). If you moved here in the past 5 years or so, or bought property etc you are probably in trouble.

I'm starting to see For Sale or For Rent signs pop up everywhere, especially on buildings that you normally don't see being rented or sold.

Also seeing "discounts" on rent like a six month lease with one "free" month - the equivalent of around a 16% discount. You saw this over the past couple years but it was usually a one month "discount" to rent with a year lease, or an 8% discount, this is largely an accounting trick used by property owners to disguise their property/asset values - because one month free rent is an accounting charge that can be expensed as a one time thing, but if you rented the unit for what you could get at market rate that can damage your asset value (as real estate is valued off of income), and in some cases push owners/developers into bankruptcy depending on how leveraged they are.

Once evictions start and we get closer to the end of the year (which is when accounting tricks start to become harder to use to disguise problems) I think this will only get worse. Cities all over the Bay Area grew wealthy from tax revenues and have overspent and saved nothing for a rainy day situation - the global tech companies that they gave tax breaks too are also probably going to scale back their presence as well as the workforce becomes remote.

The final thing we need is an earthquake I think.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40719849)

you've got a CCP?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40719863)

For example if you rented a unit in a rent controlled building in 2010 or so, rent would still have to fall like 30-40% to make you think about moving.

What blows my mind is they're still building. I mean it does make sense because the only thing worse than a vacant completed building is a half built building.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40720097)

i bought a home in 2016 for above market. recent appraisal was above the 2016 sales price and a comparable home was built and sold next door last month for above the appraisal. recent refi took me down to 3.25%. i am thinking i just hang on to this sucker and continue to take the mortgage interest deduction. it's in a good neighborhood with good schools and i like living in the forested hills area. at the same time, maybe demand hasn't completely cratered yet and there is still an opportunity to exit this investment.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40720349)

How much did you put down? How is your income/investment profile?

A friend of mine is in a similar situation and the only advice I have for him is that he has to get something done quickly because the opportunity cost is huge right now - he either has to rent his vacant unit out or sell it, but not sit on it for too long. The longer this goes the more desperate people are going to be for exits.

As for a fee, don't worry about it. Maybe next time you need financial advice or something like that remember me.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40723454)

I know a ton of people who moved to Texas and Oregon. Don't know of anyone who moved to Idaho.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40719879)

i'd love to live in idaho but seems like nothing but farm jerbs

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40719899)

But long-term, what are their options? They lose their remote-work job and then, what, apply for another remote job with 30,000 other applicants from around country, or the 300,000 other applicants if the job is advertised worldwide? They aren’t going to get high-paying jobs in Idaho, and their kids are going to leave to go to college and find work somewhere. Idaho is a dead end for these masses who are moving in, and they’re ruining it for those of us who had something special out in the wilderness.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40720034)

Unfortunately this is a result of these rootless people moving around all the time. Many people in SF who were locals for many many generations were pushed out by these techies who abandon the city after a decade or at the slightest hint of hardship.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40720122)

Or as Kenji Miyazawa said: “We must embrace pain and burn it as fuel for our journey. She who loves roses must not cry out when she is pierced by thorns.”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40722952)

Meanwhile homeless encampments infested with rats, used syringes and trash in Denver especially downtown. Crazed addicts and druggies stumbling around begging. Disgusting what’s happened to my state.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40721674)

...except where the “important” people live.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40722966)

In the last couple of years the two flows have been even.

I assume that after COVID the out-flow will be significant larger. And the out-flow will be the wealthier people. California is descending into a toilet bowl swirl.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40722156)

So unless in the past two years it *dramatically* shifted

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40722876)

https://twitter.com/drdavidsamadi/status/1292073650326319105

https://nypost.com/2020/08/08/nyc-moms-fleeing-upper-west-side-amid-crime-and-chaos/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4599315&forum_id=2#40727758)