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RCP TX: Trump +4.4 Early Vote: GOP +8.3 RCP Battleground: Biden+4.5

Also worth noting - there's about a 5-6 point shift national...
borders
  10/17/20
Date: October 17th, 2020 4:49 PM Author: borders Also wo...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
die in a fire faggot
,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,...,.,,;..,
  10/18/20
From tonight’s Muskegon rally: 11,842 voters matche...
borders
  10/17/20
How do they get this info?
David Poaster Wallace
  10/18/20
oh my friend! you missed one of my megapoasts Trump rall...
borders
  10/18/20
lol, good luck with that when 55% of the country hates Trump...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
So he's now got a higher approval rating than he did on elec...
Sickly argumentative UES Jew in puffy jacket
  10/18/20
...
'"'""'"''"
  10/18/20
biden is LIKABLE ok
mewling mexican
  10/18/20
No, how do they get data on 11k people at a rally?
David Poaster Wallace
  10/18/20
there's some sort of signup / sign in they do at these ralli...
borders
  10/18/20
180
Diversity, equity, and inclusivity
  10/17/20
what does this mean
.,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,;.,:::,..;.,:,.,..:.,,.:.,:.::,
  10/17/20
It means that - with almost 25% of 2016 votes having been co...
borders
  10/18/20
Denton, Collin, Tarrant, and Harris are bellwether counties ...
Hegemon
  10/18/20
Same, I grew up in TX - now in the shitlib center of it
borders
  10/18/20
...
..,.,..,...,:,,:,..;:,:,...,:,.,.:.,:.,;;.,.:;.,,
  10/18/20
I just spent a month in Collin and Harris counties. Trump s...
.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,.,.,.,
  10/18/20
Source on Trump "running better" in Denton County?...
,...,.,.,.;,.;,.;.,..,.;,.,;,.,.;,.,
  10/18/20
See post below on targetsmart model - there's actually a bet...
borders
  10/18/20
I'm looking at TargetSmart's Texas page, and it seems almost...
,...,.,.,.;,.;,.;.,..,.;,.,;,.,.;,.,
  10/18/20
Oh sorry - there's a long explanation somewhere from the guy...
borders
  10/18/20
Date: October 18th, 2020 1:34 AM Author: borders It mean...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
are pollsters oversampling college grads or are trump voters...
Vitamin D media blackout
  10/18/20
Both - I'll do a new thread on the polls in a few min
borders
  10/18/20
Beto won Denton county by 8 points. You guys really underes...
X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2
  10/19/20
With the Dem early votes already in, Trump needs a huge shif...
....,...,.,.,..............................,..,.
  10/17/20
No Trump is winning! (Pauli from Rocky voice)
Roland
  10/18/20
If trump wins op should be allowed to burn down fivethirtyei...
,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,
  10/18/20
Gap between polls & actual early vote so far in North Ca...
borders
  10/18/20
Where are you getting actual voting data?
,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,
  10/18/20
They collect the names of people who vote / VBM in voter fil...
borders
  10/18/20
what do these numbers mean
.,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,;.,:::,..;.,:,.,..:.,,.:.,:.::,
  10/18/20
The assumptions that are driving the MSM polls are wrong. Th...
my dog gets banned by twitter more often than I do
  10/18/20
Yes bingo - this more than anything is the main takeaway so ...
borders
  10/18/20
Date: October 18th, 2020 2:39 AM Author: borders Yes bin...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
Date: October 18th, 2020 3:21 AM Author: '""'''&q...
,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,
  10/18/20
Don’t you think early voting data may be significantly...
,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.
  10/18/20
Yes- significantly less libs are going to vote in person thi...
.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,.,.,.,
  10/18/20
Yes I do, that's the entire point actually A recent trend...
borders
  10/18/20
Date: October 18th, 2020 1:55 AM Author: my dog gets banned...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM Author: '""'''...
,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,
  10/18/20
TRUMPSLIDE
allistair
  10/18/20
but isnt mail in voting is still ongoing plus election day i...
..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...
  10/18/20
borders ?
..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...
  10/18/20
...
..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...
  10/18/20
So - the context for this comparison isn't about performance...
borders
  10/18/20
Do you think Republicans are doing well enough in NC to win ...
Confuseddood
  10/18/20
"so if the NC polls are telling us within their sample,...
..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...
  10/18/20
Ie - VBM surges then rapidly diminishes, so if you see certa...
borders
  10/18/20
Gap between polls & actual early vote so far in North Ca...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
Edit: this is a bit hyperbole, but generally true / susp...
borders
  10/18/20
Just outed ur self as flame
Roland
  10/18/20
see edit - it was bit of joke, but there's something to the ...
borders
  10/18/20
Date: October 18th, 2020 2:15 AM Author: borders see edi...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
Do u know WM in real life ? Have u seen the BBC?
''''''''''''''''''''''
  10/18/20
Date: October 18th, 2020 2:09 AM Author: borders Edit: t...
'""'''""'""'
  10/18/20
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/comey-announced-reopening-cl...
China Trump
  10/18/20
Read whole thread and spent whole night analyzing. I’m...
Roland
  10/18/20
...
,...,.,.,.;,.;,.;.,..,.;,.,;,.,.;,.,
  10/18/20
Why would the thread make you change your mind who you're vo...
borders
  10/18/20
Huge Trump crowd in Wisconsin: https://twitter.com/DanSca...
evan39
  10/18/20
damn there must be 100,000 ppl there
Coffee Meets Bagel match
  10/18/20
Biden crowd: https://twitter.com/RebelYell1968/status/131...
evan39
  10/18/20
i bet at least half of those guys are voting for Trump but h...
Coffee Meets Bagel match
  10/18/20
...
a fish dressed up as a pumo
  10/18/20
borders is my BOY
Coffee Meets Bagel match
  10/18/20
Case for Biden: consistently ahead in national and swing sta...
Cock McStuffins
  10/18/20
I loled
,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.
  10/18/20
...
;;::;;
  10/18/20
Hillary was also "consistently ahead" in polls
evan39
  10/18/20
Did you cry in 2016? Was it embarrassing?
Henry Aaron
  10/18/20
Are you going to cry after Trump loses?
.,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,;:.,.:..:.,:,::,.
  10/18/20
Oh wow, a faggot pumo!
Henry Aaron
  10/18/20
I’d give you a kidney to guarantee that Dems lose and ...
Richard, from England
  10/18/20
Lol 180
China Trump
  10/18/20
...
\'\';\'\'\'\';\'\';\'\';\'\'\'\'\'
  10/18/20
...
LathamTouchedMe
  10/18/20
dem too many variables
mewling mexican
  10/18/20
LMAO 😂 😂😂😂
Dickey Simpkins
  10/18/20
The betting odds are tightening (modestly)
,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,
  10/18/20
...
embedded racism
  10/18/20
...
dha tux
  10/19/20
In Texas, the ordinary early voting period was extended, so ...
TexasAzure
  10/18/20
borders is the most 180 fempoaster ever.
Candy Ride
  10/18/20
Explain how it is that in florida Democratic VBM this year a...
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 47th POTUS
  10/18/20
This is a stupid argument. Did you think VBM would go do...
,.,.,..,,,.,..,,.,..,.
  10/18/20
No shit, but the turnout is much higher than gop.
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 47th POTUS
  10/19/20
Even your moniker is stupid. Or do you expect Pence to be sw...
,..,,.,,...,,..,...,.........,,,.,,.,,,.,,,
  10/19/20
Of course. Trump isn’t messing around with any of tha...
X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2
  10/19/20
lol. cr moniker change
Cock McStuffins
  10/19/20
Date: October 19th, 2020 7:58 AM Author: Joseph Robinette B...
,..,,.,,...,,..,...,.........,,,.,,.,,,.,,,
  10/19/20
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1318296918045429770
Vitamin D media blackout
  10/19/20


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: October 17th, 2020 4:49 PM
Author: borders

Also worth noting - there's about a 5-6 point shift nationally between battleground states and national polls

Ie - RCP national: Biden +9

RCP battleground: Biden +4.5

watch the rcp gap - already to turn sharply, will be steeper climb than 2016

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41132223)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:19 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 17th, 2020 4:49 PM

Author: borders

Also worth noting - there's about a 5-6 point shift nationally between battleground states and national polls

Ie - RCP national: Biden +9

RCP battleground: Biden +4.5

watch the rcp gap - already to turn sharply, will be steeper climb than 2016

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41132223)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134861)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:13 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,...,.,,;..,


die in a fire faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136045)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 17th, 2020 11:51 PM
Author: borders

From tonight’s Muskegon rally:

11,842 voters matched

Only 48.3% Republican

36% who did not vote in 2016



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134197)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:57 AM
Author: David Poaster Wallace

How do they get this info?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134672)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:07 AM
Author: borders

oh my friend! you missed one of my megapoasts

Trump rallies aren't just badass lovefests of patriotic americans - they're sophisticated data collection operations that the Trump campaign has been using over last few years to drive targeting and ground efforts

Trump beat Hillary having no ground game, abandoned by GOP machine on the ground, gop senators distancing themselves thinking he would lose etc - and trump basically beat the Clinton political machine based on personality and rallies alone

Trump 2020 campaign effort is a completely different beast than 2016....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134691)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:18 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

lol, good luck with that when 55% of the country hates Trump and turnout is already high. hth

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134858)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 4:24 AM
Author: Sickly argumentative UES Jew in puffy jacket

So he's now got a higher approval rating than he did on election day? Awesome

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134930)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 11:19 AM
Author: '"'""'"''"



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135543)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:10 PM
Author: mewling mexican

biden is LIKABLE ok

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136251)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:00 PM
Author: David Poaster Wallace

No, how do they get data on 11k people at a rally?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136229)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:01 PM
Author: borders

there's some sort of signup / sign in they do at these rallies, and match them to voter files

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136233)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 17th, 2020 11:55 PM
Author: Diversity, equity, and inclusivity

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134209)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 17th, 2020 11:56 PM
Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,;.,:::,..;.,:,.,..:.,,.:.,:.::,


what does this mean

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134212)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:34 AM
Author: borders

It means that - with almost 25% of 2016 votes having been counted in TX, ie high number of votes, during a voting period where Dems should be holding a disproportionate advantage in voting split - that the RCP polling average for TX right now is off by ~5 points

We also know that national polls are shifted compared to battleground polls by about +5-6 points in favor of Biden - ie Trump has consistently run about 5 points more favorable in the battleground states than in national polls

So national polls right now are rcp Biden +9, battleground rcp Biden +4.5, and Trump's battleground RCP against biden is better at this time in October than it was in 2016

But the main takeaways from TX so far is - Trump running 7 points more favorably than polls had him in TX right now during time that's supposed to be advantageous for Dems

And seeing many sources saying that there's good evidence the Romney / GWB vote that left Trump in 2016, is coming home big time - eg:

Trump won Denton County, a Dallas suburb, 57%/37%. Republicans currently lead 64%/26% in mail-in ballots returns and in-person early voting with 28% of the 2016 vote total in.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134624)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:42 AM
Author: Hegemon

Denton, Collin, Tarrant, and Harris are bellwether counties for him.

t. Texasmo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134635)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:45 AM
Author: borders

Same, I grew up in TX - now in the shitlib center of it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134646)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:15 AM
Author: ..,.,..,...,:,,:,..;:,:,...,:,.,.:.,:.,;;.,.:;.,,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134852)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 9:34 AM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,.,.,.,


I just spent a month in Collin and Harris counties. Trump stickers everywhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135202)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:14 AM
Author: ,...,.,.,.;,.;,.;.,..,.;,.,;,.,.;,.,


Source on Trump "running better" in Denton County? Votes are up, but how are they knowing that Republicans are leading, especially since Texas has no party registration?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134716)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:18 AM
Author: borders

See post below on targetsmart model - there's actually a better example of this I can find if i get bored later i'll have to look it up again, showing this in FL w/ registered party id,

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134729)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:33 AM
Author: ,...,.,.,.;,.;,.;.,..,.;,.,;,.,.;,.,


I'm looking at TargetSmart's Texas page, and it seems almost worthless; there were basically no early votes in 2016 compared to 2020 so it seems impossible to read much into a shift. Florida makes more sense, since there actually were a lot of early votes in 2016. And Florida looks bad, with Democrats doing a lot better than they did in 2016.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134763)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:44 AM
Author: borders

Oh sorry - there's a long explanation somewhere from the guy who runs in (a Democrat) who said you CANNOT and SHOULD NOT be making comparisons to 2016 / 2018

Really the best use is validating how representative the polls being put out are w/ EV/VBM as a validation set against the "already voted" subgroup in the poll, and general demographic signals / trends - to compare against 2016 you need an external source

There was a long analysis somewhere estimating that to win FL the GOP should hope to keep the margin below 700k

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134781)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:19 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:34 AM

Author: borders

It means that - with almost 25% of 2016 votes having been counted in TX, ie high number of votes, during a voting period where Dems should be holding a disproportionate advantage in voting split - that the RCP polling average for TX right now is off by ~5 points

We also know that national polls are shifted compared to battleground polls by about +5-6 points in favor of Biden - ie Trump has consistently run about 5 points more favorable in the battleground states than in national polls

So national polls right now are rcp Biden +9, battleground rcp Biden +4.5, and Trump's battleground RCP against biden is better at this time in October than it was in 2016

But the main takeaways from TX so far is - Trump running 7 points more favorably than polls had him in TX right now during time that's supposed to be advantageous for Dems

And seeing many sources saying that there's good evidence the Romney / GWB vote that left Trump in 2016, is coming home big time - eg:

Trump won Denton County, a Dallas suburb, 57%/37%. Republicans currently lead 64%/26% in mail-in ballots returns and in-person early voting with 28% of the 2016 vote total in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134624)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134859)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 8:39 AM
Author: Vitamin D media blackout (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100307215534.htm)

are pollsters oversampling college grads or are trump voters shy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135111)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:52 PM
Author: borders

Both - I'll do a new thread on the polls in a few min

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136197)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2020 8:47 AM
Author: X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2

Beto won Denton county by 8 points. You guys really underestimate how much people in all of these swing states, but especially Texas, fucking HATED Hillary.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140767)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 17th, 2020 11:57 PM
Author: ....,...,.,.,..............................,..,.


With the Dem early votes already in, Trump needs a huge shift in the polls.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134219)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:40 AM
Author: Roland

No Trump is winning! (Pauli from Rocky voice)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134633)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:44 AM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,


If trump wins op should be allowed to burn down fivethirtyeight’s offices while screaming “king kong ain’t got shit on me”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134644)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:46 AM
Author: borders

Gap between polls & actual early vote so far in North Carolina, amongst early voters, mostly vote by mail:

Polls: Dems up by 41

Actual: Dems up by 28

Polls: 35% Black

Actual: 21% Black

Polls: 15% 18-29

Actual: 9% 18-29

Polls: new voters 35%

Actual: 23%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134649)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:48 AM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,


Where are you getting actual voting data?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134651)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:04 AM
Author: borders

They collect the names of people who vote / VBM in voter files released daily - in states like FL, you'll have voting by actual party registration

In states like MI with no party registration it's a bit more difficult, but Dem digital marketing firm Targetsmart has a model on its site where you can choose a split "modeled party" - where they predict your party id based on your voter file (voting history), demographic data, as well as voter files that contain consumer data collected on all of us - so they can tell whether you or I subscribe to field and stream, NRA, purchase guns, or subscribe to NPR and purchase Ibram X Kendi books

Of course you don't actually know who people are voting for - but there are useful indicators / signals and predictive factors to look for that allow you to gauge enthusiasm, turnout, and maybe most significantly for now - allows you to validate how representative these media / university polls are by comparing the demographics of the "voted already" subgroup in the poll internals w/ the demographic patterns of people who have already voted

So for example in GA - we know the state polls that have been touted, even used by Nate Silver to come up w/ this absurd map: https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1317687849412481024?s=20

The GA polls that have Dems believing it's in play have blacks in mid-high 30s for share of voters, but it's only at 32-33, and has been declining quickly

Or another example - you can see youth vote is down 2-3 points, and similarly black vote down 2-3 points, very out of whack w/ polls

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134685)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:49 AM
Author: .,.,.;;,;.,..,:,,:,;.,:::,..;.,:,.,..:.,,.:.,:.::,


what do these numbers mean

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134656)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:55 AM
Author: my dog gets banned by twitter more often than I do (and he doesn’t even have a cell phone!)

The assumptions that are driving the MSM polls are wrong. They have huge numbers for Biden because they expect lots of voters for Biden. The actual numbers of “Biden group” voters are much smaller so far.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134663)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:39 AM
Author: borders

Yes bingo - this more than anything is the main takeaway so far - that when the polls being put out have a subsample of ppl who have already voted, it gives you a direct way to validate the representativeness of their poll's sample, which is becoming blatantly clear is garbage

You can also make general inferences about demographics / how the electorate will look based on these discrepancies - b/c it's almost certain that the group of voters we're analyzing before ED from VBM/EV is going to be not only highly disproportionately Democrat but their most enthusiastic bases of support no less.

So when you see youth vote share down 2-3 points, black vote share down 3 or so points, that's not a great sign

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134775)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:21 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:39 AM

Author: borders

Yes bingo - this more than anything is the main takeaway so far - that when the polls being put out have a subsample of ppl who have already voted, it gives you a direct way to validate the representativeness of their poll's sample, which is becoming blatantly clear is garbage

You can also make general inferences about demographics / how the electorate will look based on these discrepancies - b/c it's almost certain that the group of voters we're analyzing before ED from VBM/EV is going to be not only highly disproportionately Democrat but their most enthusiastic bases of support no less.

So when you see youth vote share down 2-3 points, black vote share down 3 or so points, that's not a great sign

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134775)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134869)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:34 AM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,


Date: October 18th, 2020 3:21 AM

Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:39 AM

Author: borders

Yes bingo - this more than anything is the main takeaway so far - that when the polls being put out have a subsample of ppl who have already voted, it gives you a direct way to validate the representativeness of their poll's sample, which is becoming blatantly clear is garbage

You can also make general inferences about demographics / how the electorate will look based on these discrepancies - b/c it's almost certain that the group of voters we're analyzing before ED from VBM/EV is going to be not only highly disproportionately Democrat but their most enthusiastic bases of support no less.

So when you see youth vote share down 2-3 points, black vote share down 3 or so points, that's not a great sign

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134775)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134869)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134885)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 8:49 AM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.

Don’t you think early voting data may be significantly different than in person data?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135125)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:41 AM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,.,.,.,


Yes- significantly less libs are going to vote in person this time

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135217)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:51 PM
Author: borders

Yes I do, that's the entire point actually

A recent trend has been Dems shifting to be disproportionately represented in the early vote

This year, their VBM push has amplified this effect - b/c remember each party had literally been telling their base for months "vote by mail" vs "you can't trust this mail fraud so vote on ED" (but also vbm if you need to)

Polls have also shown across the board, regardless of the type of poll - media, university, gallup / pew, etc - a significant split in voter intention to EV / VBM, w/ something like 3:1 Dems saying they'll vote before ED

Which comes to the crux of my argument and what I gather from various sources - we've been told these polls foretell a huge blue wave - in order to believe that and what these polls show as defection of republicans, crazy solidarity among Dems, increase in turnout etc - you'd have to believe the polls are representative. But there's a way to validate that w/ EV data - b/c the polls have an 'already voted' subgroup in the sample - and if the already voted subgroup looks nothing like the actual subgroup of the electorate who's already voted, then those polls' samples are representative of that electorate.... I'll do a new thread about how bad the polls are in a few min w/ updated info

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136195)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:55 AM

Author: my dog gets banned by twitter more often than I do (and he doesn’t even have a cell phone!)

The assumptions that are driving the MSM polls are wrong. They have huge numbers for Biden because they expect lots of voters for Biden. The actual numbers of “Biden group” voters are much smaller so far.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134663)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134866)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:34 AM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,


Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM

Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:55 AM

Author: my dog gets banned by twitter more often than I do (and he doesn’t even have a cell phone!)

The assumptions that are driving the MSM polls are wrong. They have huge numbers for Biden because they expect lots of voters for Biden. The actual numbers of “Biden group” voters are much smaller so far.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134663)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134866)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134883)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:56 AM
Author: allistair

TRUMPSLIDE

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134667)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:16 AM
Author: ..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...


but isnt mail in voting is still ongoing plus election day is still to come. so the polling gaps could still come true after all voting is complete

not sure why you think a snap shot at any time should reflect the polling gap. this has no statistical relevance



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134720)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:19 AM
Author: ..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...


borders ?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134732)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:23 AM
Author: ..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134743)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:32 AM
Author: borders

So - the context for this comparison isn't about performance. You're right in that it's clearly the case that we don't know how these people are voting, and anything can happen, but VBM usually follow relatively predictable patterns in that you'll see diminishing returns, maybe uptick before ED, then ED

The context of these numbers stem from all the polling info about which party plans to vote when

Regardless of poll - university/media/gallup/PPD etc - every poll has found pretty similar splits in when each party's voters intend to vote, either VBM / EV vs ED

And it's a relatively recent trend (within last decade I believe) that Democrats skew earlier and will dominate EV / VBM split

For this election - all these polls have found that according to how ppl say when they're going to vote, the VBM / EV split should be about 3:1 - and really based on how disproportionate ED voting is Dems will generally want to run 75/25 or 3:1 at minimum to bank enough margins for the larger share of ED votes that will have a favorable R split

You're right that this doesn't tell us anything for sure - but this was in the context of my megapoasting on behaviorals and fundamentals vs polls (and even w/in polls there's a group much more accurate record being ignored)

The statistical reference however is that this gives us a decent validation of the sample representativeness in the polls being put out lately, because in those polls there's a subgroup of "already voted", which in that sample was a 3:1 D:R split... So ESPECIALLY in states like NC w/ party registration, you can use the early VBM / EV to validate the poll samples - so if the NC polls are telling us within their sample, the ones who already voted have done so at 3:1 D:R, but we see that the real D:R so far is under 2:1 - it tells us the sampling representativeness of that poll is way off

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134759)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:37 AM
Author: Confuseddood

Do you think Republicans are doing well enough in NC to win the Governor's race and other down ballot races? Trump seems to be doing better than the other candidates.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134770)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:12 AM
Author: ..,,,..,,,;;;....;;....,,...


"so if the NC polls are telling us within their sample, the ones who already voted have done so at 3:1 D:R, but we see that the real D:R so far is under 2:1 - it tells us the sampling representativeness of that poll is way off"

ok this is useful if true. i think your overall analysis is plausible but you must concede it involves a lot of assumptions and hand waving which is fine because its not easy to model elections especially across states that vary so much culturally,demographically etc. i think there are pathways for trump to win but you are way too optimistic while some of the bort libs are way too pessimistic about trump's chances. we will see soon i guess

my take:

"shy tory" effect is huge when libs have successfully made MAGA hat a white supremacist symbol. so every poll especially state polls is under counting trump support. and a lot of the polls are fucking crap - look at NYT poll showing biden +6 and some other poll showing biden +11 in michigan

what we dont know is how much to add in each state



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134845)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:58 AM
Author: borders

Ie - VBM surges then rapidly diminishes, so if you see certain polling gaps eg 20 points apart, that's not likely to close in the final week or two

It's not about the polling gaps themselves, it's that the polls put out saying Biden is +8 nationally is a sample of people supposedly reflecting the electorate, among this sample of the electorate are a subgroup of people who have already voted - but if this subgroup of ppl who have already voted doesn't look anything like the subgroup of the electorate that has already voted, then that sample isn't actually representative of the electorate...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134815)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

Gap between polls & actual early vote so far in North Carolina, amongst early voters, mostly vote by mail:

Polls: Dems up by 41

Actual: Dems up by 28

Polls: 35% Black

Actual: 21% Black

Polls: 15% 18-29

Actual: 9% 18-29

Polls: new voters 35%

Actual: 23%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134649)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134865)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:09 AM
Author: borders

Edit: this is a bit hyperbole, but generally true / suspicious when it's only one direction

Was talking with our friend War Machine last night about this - the whole 'polls were accurate in 2016' narrative they've spun. If the NBC/WSJ poll on 10/15/16 shows Hillary +11 among LV, then maybe Hillary +3-4 on nov. 1, was this polling operation accurate?

Forget the asymmetry of the polling bias - if a national poll has 9 point swings within a matter of weeks, that's garbage

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134696)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:12 AM
Author: Roland

Just outed ur self as flame

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134705)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:15 AM
Author: borders

see edit - it was bit of joke, but there's something to the asymmetry IMO

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134718)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:21 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:15 AM

Author: borders

see edit - it was bit of joke, but there's something to the asymmetry IMO

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134718)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134871)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:10 AM
Author: ''''''''''''''''''''''

Do u know WM in real life ? Have u seen the BBC?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134838)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM
Author: '""'''""'""'

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:09 AM

Author: borders

Edit: this is a bit hyperbole, but generally true / suspicious when it's only one direction

Was talking with our friend War Machine last night about this - the whole 'polls were accurate in 2016' narrative they've spun. If the NBC/WSJ poll on 10/15/16 shows Hillary +11 among LV, then maybe Hillary +3-4 on nov. 1, was this polling operation accurate?

Forget the asymmetry of the polling bias - if a national poll has 9 point swings within a matter of weeks, that's garbage

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134696)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134863)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 7:59 AM
Author: China Trump

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/comey-announced-reopening-clinton-email-probe-days-election/story?id=54470601

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135085)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:36 AM
Author: Roland

Read whole thread and spent whole night analyzing. I’m 100% Biden.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134767)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:37 AM
Author: ,...,.,.,.;,.;,.;.,..,.;,.,;,.,.;,.,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134769)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:46 AM
Author: borders

Why would the thread make you change your mind who you're voting for?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134784)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:31 AM
Author: evan39

Huge Trump crowd in Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/DanScavino/status/1317637370548727809

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134881)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:49 AM
Author: Coffee Meets Bagel match

damn there must be 100,000 ppl there

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134893)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 4:00 AM
Author: evan39

Biden crowd:

https://twitter.com/RebelYell1968/status/1315502716219604993/photo/1

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134902)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 4:04 AM
Author: Coffee Meets Bagel match

i bet at least half of those guys are voting for Trump but had to be there as company representatives

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134907)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:08 PM
Author: a fish dressed up as a pumo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136031)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 4:04 AM
Author: Coffee Meets Bagel match

borders is my BOY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134909)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 8:40 AM
Author: Cock McStuffins

Case for Biden: consistently ahead in national and swing state polls

Case for Trump: X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135112)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 8:53 AM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,. .,.,. ,.,.,. ., ,.,., .,,.,.

I loled

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135130)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 9:01 AM
Author: ;;::;;



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135146)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 9:03 AM
Author: evan39

Hillary was also "consistently ahead" in polls

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135147)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 9:06 AM
Author: Henry Aaron

Did you cry in 2016? Was it embarrassing?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135152)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 9:11 AM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,;:.,.:..:.,:,::,.


Are you going to cry after Trump loses?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135160)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 9:12 AM
Author: Henry Aaron

Oh wow, a faggot pumo!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135164)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 9:38 AM
Author: Richard, from England

I’d give you a kidney to guarantee that Dems lose and will nominate borders tp for some Nobel Prize, but I LOLed at this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135212)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 1:05 PM
Author: China Trump

Lol 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136024)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:07 PM
Author: \'\';\'\'\'\';\'\';\'\';\'\'\'\'\'




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136241)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:09 PM
Author: LathamTouchedMe



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136250)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:12 PM
Author: mewling mexican

dem too many variables

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136257)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:19 PM
Author: Dickey Simpkins

LMAO 😂 😂😂😂

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136287)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:21 PM
Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,,


The betting odds are tightening (modestly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136297)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:46 PM
Author: embedded racism



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136421)



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Date: October 19th, 2020 9:29 AM
Author: dha tux ( )



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140912)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:21 AM
Author: TexasAzure

In Texas, the ordinary early voting period was extended, so every vote at this point in time is in excess to what was cast in 2016.

Ground game has days and days and days to get people to the polls.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135184)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 12:55 PM
Author: Candy Ride

borders is the most 180 fempoaster ever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135995)



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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:33 PM
Author: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 47th POTUS

Explain how it is that in florida Democratic VBM this year already exceeds total VBM for 2026 but that is nbd. tyia

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136358)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 18th, 2020 2:53 PM
Author: ,.,.,..,,,.,..,,.,..,.

This is a stupid argument.

Did you think VBM would go down during COVID? Every state is going to have VBM that blows out past years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136442)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2020 7:58 AM
Author: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 47th POTUS

No shit, but the turnout is much higher than gop.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140603)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2020 8:50 AM
Author: ,..,,.,,...,,..,...,.........,,,.,,.,,,.,,,


Even your moniker is stupid. Or do you expect Pence to be sworn in sometime between now and January?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140786)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2020 9:48 AM
Author: X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2

Of course. Trump isn’t messing around with any of that “I pardon myself” stuff.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140975)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2020 10:26 AM
Author: Cock McStuffins

lol. cr moniker change

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41141169)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2020 8:50 AM
Author: ,..,,.,,...,,..,...,.........,,,.,,.,,,.,,,


Date: October 19th, 2020 7:58 AM

Author: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 47th POTUS

No shit, but the turnout is much higher than gop.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140603)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140789)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 19th, 2020 5:26 PM
Author: Vitamin D media blackout (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100307215534.htm)

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1318296918045429770

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41143963)