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RCP TX: Trump +4.4 Early Vote: GOP +8.3 RCP Battleground: Biden+4.5
Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 17th, 2020 4:49 PM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Also worth noting - there's about a 5-6 point shift nationally between battleground states and national polls
Ie - RCP national: Biden +9 RCP battleground: Biden +4.5
watch the rcp gap - already to turn sharply, will be steeper climb than 2016 |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:19 AM Author: Curious purple feces Date: October 17th, 2020 4:49 PM Author: borders
Also worth noting - there's about a 5-6 point shift nationally between battleground states and national polls Ie - RCP national: Biden +9
RCP battleground: Biden +4.5
watch the rcp gap - already to turn sharply, will be steeper climb than 2016
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41132223) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:13 PM Author: demanding maize circlehead die in a fire faggot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136045) |
Date: October 17th, 2020 11:51 PM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold From tonight’s Muskegon rally:
11,842 voters matched
Only 48.3% Republican
36% who did not vote in 2016
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:57 AM Author: Rebellious Sinister Wrinkle How do they get this info? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134672) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:07 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold oh my friend! you missed one of my megapoasts
Trump rallies aren't just badass lovefests of patriotic americans - they're sophisticated data collection operations that the Trump campaign has been using over last few years to drive targeting and ground efforts
Trump beat Hillary having no ground game, abandoned by GOP machine on the ground, gop senators distancing themselves thinking he would lose etc - and trump basically beat the Clinton political machine based on personality and rallies alone
Trump 2020 campaign effort is a completely different beast than 2016.... |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:18 AM Author: Curious purple feces lol, good luck with that when 55% of the country hates Trump and turnout is already high. hth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134858) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 4:24 AM Author: painfully honest telephone degenerate So he's now got a higher approval rating than he did on election day? Awesome (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134930) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 11:19 AM Author: Geriatric Locale Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135543) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:10 PM Author: Gold Jet-lagged Patrolman biden is LIKABLE ok (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136251) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:00 PM Author: Rebellious Sinister Wrinkle No, how do they get data on 11k people at a rally? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136229) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:01 PM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold there's some sort of signup / sign in they do at these rallies, and match them to voter files (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136233) |
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Date: October 17th, 2020 11:55 PM Author: Flickering burgundy shrine scourge upon the earth 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134209) |
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Date: October 17th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: balding property what does this mean (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134212) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:34 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold It means that - with almost 25% of 2016 votes having been counted in TX, ie high number of votes, during a voting period where Dems should be holding a disproportionate advantage in voting split - that the RCP polling average for TX right now is off by ~5 points
We also know that national polls are shifted compared to battleground polls by about +5-6 points in favor of Biden - ie Trump has consistently run about 5 points more favorable in the battleground states than in national polls
So national polls right now are rcp Biden +9, battleground rcp Biden +4.5, and Trump's battleground RCP against biden is better at this time in October than it was in 2016
But the main takeaways from TX so far is - Trump running 7 points more favorably than polls had him in TX right now during time that's supposed to be advantageous for Dems
And seeing many sources saying that there's good evidence the Romney / GWB vote that left Trump in 2016, is coming home big time - eg:
Trump won Denton County, a Dallas suburb, 57%/37%. Republicans currently lead 64%/26% in mail-in ballots returns and in-person early voting with 28% of the 2016 vote total in.
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:42 AM Author: boyish doobsian point faggotry Denton, Collin, Tarrant, and Harris are bellwether counties for him.
t. Texasmo |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:45 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Same, I grew up in TX - now in the shitlib center of it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134646) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:15 AM Author: talented aquamarine place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134852) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:34 AM Author: irate theatre gaping I just spent a month in Collin and Harris counties. Trump stickers everywhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135202) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:14 AM Author: Black Internal Respiration Hall Source on Trump "running better" in Denton County? Votes are up, but how are they knowing that Republicans are leading, especially since Texas has no party registration? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134716) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:18 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold See post below on targetsmart model - there's actually a better example of this I can find if i get bored later i'll have to look it up again, showing this in FL w/ registered party id, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134729) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:33 AM Author: Black Internal Respiration Hall I'm looking at TargetSmart's Texas page, and it seems almost worthless; there were basically no early votes in 2016 compared to 2020 so it seems impossible to read much into a shift. Florida makes more sense, since there actually were a lot of early votes in 2016. And Florida looks bad, with Democrats doing a lot better than they did in 2016. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134763) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:44 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Oh sorry - there's a long explanation somewhere from the guy who runs in (a Democrat) who said you CANNOT and SHOULD NOT be making comparisons to 2016 / 2018
Really the best use is validating how representative the polls being put out are w/ EV/VBM as a validation set against the "already voted" subgroup in the poll, and general demographic signals / trends - to compare against 2016 you need an external source
There was a long analysis somewhere estimating that to win FL the GOP should hope to keep the margin below 700k |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:19 AM Author: Curious purple feces Date: October 18th, 2020 1:34 AM Author: borders
It means that - with almost 25% of 2016 votes having been counted in TX, ie high number of votes, during a voting period where Dems should be holding a disproportionate advantage in voting split - that the RCP polling average for TX right now is off by ~5 points We also know that national polls are shifted compared to battleground polls by about +5-6 points in favor of Biden - ie Trump has consistently run about 5 points more favorable in the battleground states than in national polls
So national polls right now are rcp Biden +9, battleground rcp Biden +4.5, and Trump's battleground RCP against biden is better at this time in October than it was in 2016
But the main takeaways from TX so far is - Trump running 7 points more favorably than polls had him in TX right now during time that's supposed to be advantageous for Dems
And seeing many sources saying that there's good evidence the Romney / GWB vote that left Trump in 2016, is coming home big time - eg:
Trump won Denton County, a Dallas suburb, 57%/37%. Republicans currently lead 64%/26% in mail-in ballots returns and in-person early voting with 28% of the 2016 vote total in.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134624) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 8:39 AM Author: Excitant plum sandwich cuck are pollsters oversampling college grads or are trump voters shy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135111) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:52 PM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Both - I'll do a new thread on the polls in a few min (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136197) |
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Date: October 19th, 2020 8:47 AM Author: rambunctious deer antler Beto won Denton county by 8 points. You guys really underestimate how much people in all of these swing states, but especially Texas, fucking HATED Hillary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140767) |
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Date: October 17th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Glassy adventurous orchestra pit roommate With the Dem early votes already in, Trump needs a huge shift in the polls. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134219) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:40 AM Author: misanthropic seedy cruise ship fanboi No Trump is winning! (Pauli from Rocky voice) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134633) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:44 AM Author: laughsome pit If trump wins op should be allowed to burn down fivethirtyeight’s offices while screaming “king kong ain’t got shit on me” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134644) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:46 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Gap between polls & actual early vote so far in North Carolina, amongst early voters, mostly vote by mail:
Polls: Dems up by 41 Actual: Dems up by 28
Polls: 35% Black Actual: 21% Black
Polls: 15% 18-29 Actual: 9% 18-29
Polls: new voters 35% Actual: 23% |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:48 AM Author: laughsome pit Where are you getting actual voting data? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134651) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:04 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold They collect the names of people who vote / VBM in voter files released daily - in states like FL, you'll have voting by actual party registration
In states like MI with no party registration it's a bit more difficult, but Dem digital marketing firm Targetsmart has a model on its site where you can choose a split "modeled party" - where they predict your party id based on your voter file (voting history), demographic data, as well as voter files that contain consumer data collected on all of us - so they can tell whether you or I subscribe to field and stream, NRA, purchase guns, or subscribe to NPR and purchase Ibram X Kendi books
Of course you don't actually know who people are voting for - but there are useful indicators / signals and predictive factors to look for that allow you to gauge enthusiasm, turnout, and maybe most significantly for now - allows you to validate how representative these media / university polls are by comparing the demographics of the "voted already" subgroup in the poll internals w/ the demographic patterns of people who have already voted
So for example in GA - we know the state polls that have been touted, even used by Nate Silver to come up w/ this absurd map: https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1317687849412481024?s=20 The GA polls that have Dems believing it's in play have blacks in mid-high 30s for share of voters, but it's only at 32-33, and has been declining quickly
Or another example - you can see youth vote is down 2-3 points, and similarly black vote down 2-3 points, very out of whack w/ polls
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/ |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:49 AM Author: balding property what do these numbers mean (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134656) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:55 AM Author: medicated dilemma sex offender The assumptions that are driving the MSM polls are wrong. They have huge numbers for Biden because they expect lots of voters for Biden. The actual numbers of “Biden group” voters are much smaller so far. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134663) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:39 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Yes bingo - this more than anything is the main takeaway so far - that when the polls being put out have a subsample of ppl who have already voted, it gives you a direct way to validate the representativeness of their poll's sample, which is becoming blatantly clear is garbage
You can also make general inferences about demographics / how the electorate will look based on these discrepancies - b/c it's almost certain that the group of voters we're analyzing before ED from VBM/EV is going to be not only highly disproportionately Democrat but their most enthusiastic bases of support no less.
So when you see youth vote share down 2-3 points, black vote share down 3 or so points, that's not a great sign |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:21 AM Author: Curious purple feces Date: October 18th, 2020 2:39 AM Author: borders
Yes bingo - this more than anything is the main takeaway so far - that when the polls being put out have a subsample of ppl who have already voted, it gives you a direct way to validate the representativeness of their poll's sample, which is becoming blatantly clear is garbage You can also make general inferences about demographics / how the electorate will look based on these discrepancies - b/c it's almost certain that the group of voters we're analyzing before ED from VBM/EV is going to be not only highly disproportionately Democrat but their most enthusiastic bases of support no less.
So when you see youth vote share down 2-3 points, black vote share down 3 or so points, that's not a great sign
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134775) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:34 AM Author: laughsome pit Date: October 18th, 2020 3:21 AM Author: '""'''""'""'
Date: October 18th, 2020 2:39 AM Author: borders
Yes bingo - this more than anything is the main takeaway so far - that when the polls being put out have a subsample of ppl who have already voted, it gives you a direct way to validate the representativeness of their poll's sample, which is becoming blatantly clear is garbage
You can also make general inferences about demographics / how the electorate will look based on these discrepancies - b/c it's almost certain that the group of voters we're analyzing before ED from VBM/EV is going to be not only highly disproportionately Democrat but their most enthusiastic bases of support no less.
So when you see youth vote share down 2-3 points, black vote share down 3 or so points, that's not a great sign
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134775)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134869) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 8:49 AM Author: Flushed Garrison Don’t you think early voting data may be significantly different than in person data? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135125) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:41 AM Author: irate theatre gaping Yes- significantly less libs are going to vote in person this time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135217) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:51 PM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Yes I do, that's the entire point actually
A recent trend has been Dems shifting to be disproportionately represented in the early vote
This year, their VBM push has amplified this effect - b/c remember each party had literally been telling their base for months "vote by mail" vs "you can't trust this mail fraud so vote on ED" (but also vbm if you need to)
Polls have also shown across the board, regardless of the type of poll - media, university, gallup / pew, etc - a significant split in voter intention to EV / VBM, w/ something like 3:1 Dems saying they'll vote before ED
Which comes to the crux of my argument and what I gather from various sources - we've been told these polls foretell a huge blue wave - in order to believe that and what these polls show as defection of republicans, crazy solidarity among Dems, increase in turnout etc - you'd have to believe the polls are representative. But there's a way to validate that w/ EV data - b/c the polls have an 'already voted' subgroup in the sample - and if the already voted subgroup looks nothing like the actual subgroup of the electorate who's already voted, then those polls' samples are representative of that electorate.... I'll do a new thread about how bad the polls are in a few min w/ updated info |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM Author: Curious purple feces Date: October 18th, 2020 1:55 AM Author: my dog gets banned by twitter more often than I do (and he doesn’t even have a cell phone!)
The assumptions that are driving the MSM polls are wrong. They have huge numbers for Biden because they expect lots of voters for Biden. The actual numbers of “Biden group” voters are much smaller so far.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134663) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:34 AM Author: laughsome pit Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM Author: '""'''""'""'
Date: October 18th, 2020 1:55 AM Author: my dog gets banned by twitter more often than I do (and he doesn’t even have a cell phone!)
The assumptions that are driving the MSM polls are wrong. They have huge numbers for Biden because they expect lots of voters for Biden. The actual numbers of “Biden group” voters are much smaller so far.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134663)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134866) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:56 AM Author: sapphire charismatic international law enforcement agency friendly grandma TRUMPSLIDE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134667) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:16 AM Author: Orchid becky but isnt mail in voting is still ongoing plus election day is still to come. so the polling gaps could still come true after all voting is complete
not sure why you think a snap shot at any time should reflect the polling gap. this has no statistical relevance
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:19 AM Author: Orchid becky borders ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134732) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:23 AM Author: Orchid becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134743) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:32 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold So - the context for this comparison isn't about performance. You're right in that it's clearly the case that we don't know how these people are voting, and anything can happen, but VBM usually follow relatively predictable patterns in that you'll see diminishing returns, maybe uptick before ED, then ED
The context of these numbers stem from all the polling info about which party plans to vote when
Regardless of poll - university/media/gallup/PPD etc - every poll has found pretty similar splits in when each party's voters intend to vote, either VBM / EV vs ED
And it's a relatively recent trend (within last decade I believe) that Democrats skew earlier and will dominate EV / VBM split
For this election - all these polls have found that according to how ppl say when they're going to vote, the VBM / EV split should be about 3:1 - and really based on how disproportionate ED voting is Dems will generally want to run 75/25 or 3:1 at minimum to bank enough margins for the larger share of ED votes that will have a favorable R split
You're right that this doesn't tell us anything for sure - but this was in the context of my megapoasting on behaviorals and fundamentals vs polls (and even w/in polls there's a group much more accurate record being ignored)
The statistical reference however is that this gives us a decent validation of the sample representativeness in the polls being put out lately, because in those polls there's a subgroup of "already voted", which in that sample was a 3:1 D:R split... So ESPECIALLY in states like NC w/ party registration, you can use the early VBM / EV to validate the poll samples - so if the NC polls are telling us within their sample, the ones who already voted have done so at 3:1 D:R, but we see that the real D:R so far is under 2:1 - it tells us the sampling representativeness of that poll is way off |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:37 AM Author: offensive knife Do you think Republicans are doing well enough in NC to win the Governor's race and other down ballot races? Trump seems to be doing better than the other candidates. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134770) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:12 AM Author: Orchid becky "so if the NC polls are telling us within their sample, the ones who already voted have done so at 3:1 D:R, but we see that the real D:R so far is under 2:1 - it tells us the sampling representativeness of that poll is way off"
ok this is useful if true. i think your overall analysis is plausible but you must concede it involves a lot of assumptions and hand waving which is fine because its not easy to model elections especially across states that vary so much culturally,demographically etc. i think there are pathways for trump to win but you are way too optimistic while some of the bort libs are way too pessimistic about trump's chances. we will see soon i guess
my take:
"shy tory" effect is huge when libs have successfully made MAGA hat a white supremacist symbol. so every poll especially state polls is under counting trump support. and a lot of the polls are fucking crap - look at NYT poll showing biden +6 and some other poll showing biden +11 in michigan
what we dont know is how much to add in each state
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:58 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Ie - VBM surges then rapidly diminishes, so if you see certain polling gaps eg 20 points apart, that's not likely to close in the final week or two
It's not about the polling gaps themselves, it's that the polls put out saying Biden is +8 nationally is a sample of people supposedly reflecting the electorate, among this sample of the electorate are a subgroup of people who have already voted - but if this subgroup of ppl who have already voted doesn't look anything like the subgroup of the electorate that has already voted, then that sample isn't actually representative of the electorate... |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM Author: Curious purple feces Gap between polls & actual early vote so far in North Carolina, amongst early voters, mostly vote by mail: Polls: Dems up by 41
Actual: Dems up by 28
Polls: 35% Black
Actual: 21% Black
Polls: 15% 18-29
Actual: 9% 18-29
Polls: new voters 35%
Actual: 23%
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134649) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:09 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold
Edit: this is a bit hyperbole, but generally true / suspicious when it's only one direction
Was talking with our friend War Machine last night about this - the whole 'polls were accurate in 2016' narrative they've spun. If the NBC/WSJ poll on 10/15/16 shows Hillary +11 among LV, then maybe Hillary +3-4 on nov. 1, was this polling operation accurate?
Forget the asymmetry of the polling bias - if a national poll has 9 point swings within a matter of weeks, that's garbage |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:12 AM Author: misanthropic seedy cruise ship fanboi Just outed ur self as flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134705) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:15 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold see edit - it was bit of joke, but there's something to the asymmetry IMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134718) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:21 AM Author: Curious purple feces Date: October 18th, 2020 2:15 AM Author: borders
see edit - it was bit of joke, but there's something to the asymmetry IMO
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134718) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:10 AM Author: pearl party of the first part Do u know WM in real life ? Have u seen the BBC? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134838) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:20 AM Author: Curious purple feces Date: October 18th, 2020 2:09 AM Author: borders
Edit: this is a bit hyperbole, but generally true / suspicious when it's only one direction
Was talking with our friend War Machine last night about this - the whole 'polls were accurate in 2016' narrative they've spun. If the NBC/WSJ poll on 10/15/16 shows Hillary +11 among LV, then maybe Hillary +3-4 on nov. 1, was this polling operation accurate?
Forget the asymmetry of the polling bias - if a national poll has 9 point swings within a matter of weeks, that's garbage
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134696) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 7:59 AM Author: Pearly range https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/comey-announced-reopening-clinton-email-probe-days-election/story?id=54470601 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135085) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:36 AM Author: misanthropic seedy cruise ship fanboi Read whole thread and spent whole night analyzing. I’m 100% Biden. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134767) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:37 AM Author: Black Internal Respiration Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134769) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:46 AM Author: concupiscible transparent cuckold Why would the thread make you change your mind who you're voting for? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134784) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:31 AM Author: Zombie-like national Huge Trump crowd in Wisconsin:
https://twitter.com/DanScavino/status/1317637370548727809 |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 3:49 AM Author: Aggressive racy lay travel guidebook damn there must be 100,000 ppl there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134893) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 4:00 AM Author: Zombie-like national Biden crowd:
https://twitter.com/RebelYell1968/status/1315502716219604993/photo/1 |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 4:04 AM Author: Aggressive racy lay travel guidebook i bet at least half of those guys are voting for Trump but had to be there as company representatives (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134907) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:08 PM Author: walnut heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136031) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 4:04 AM Author: Aggressive racy lay travel guidebook borders is my BOY (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41134909) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 8:40 AM Author: Confused fat ankles Case for Biden: consistently ahead in national and swing state polls Case for Trump: X^3 - cos(2x-65) + 345x - e^2 |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 8:53 AM Author: Flushed Garrison I loled (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135130) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:01 AM Author: Razzmatazz prole indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135146) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:03 AM Author: Zombie-like national Hillary was also "consistently ahead" in polls (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135147) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:06 AM Author: Green kink-friendly chad Did you cry in 2016? Was it embarrassing? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135152) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:11 AM Author: White persian Are you going to cry after Trump loses? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135160) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:12 AM Author: Green kink-friendly chad Oh wow, a faggot pumo! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135164) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:38 AM Author: bearded contagious nowag kitchen I’d give you a kidney to guarantee that Dems lose and will nominate borders tp for some Nobel Prize, but I LOLed at this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135212) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 1:05 PM Author: Pearly range Lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136024) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:07 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy motley skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136241) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:09 PM Author: Marvelous tanning salon idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136250) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:12 PM Author: Gold Jet-lagged Patrolman dem too many variables (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136257) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:19 PM Author: cracking location windowlicker LMAO 😂 😂😂😂 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136287) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:21 PM Author: laughsome pit The betting odds are tightening (modestly) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136297) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:46 PM Author: Henna Deranged Halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136421) |
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Date: October 19th, 2020 9:29 AM Author: Glittery principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140912) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 9:21 AM Author: shivering ape In Texas, the ordinary early voting period was extended, so every vote at this point in time is in excess to what was cast in 2016. Ground game has days and days and days to get people to the polls. |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 12:55 PM Author: crimson vibrant whorehouse borders is the most 180 fempoaster ever. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41135995) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:33 PM Author: ultramarine disgusting public bath mother Explain how it is that in florida Democratic VBM this year already exceeds total VBM for 2026 but that is nbd. tyia (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41136358) |
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Date: October 18th, 2020 2:53 PM Author: high-end legal warrant hunting ground This is a stupid argument.
Did you think VBM would go down during COVID? Every state is going to have VBM that blows out past years. |
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Date: October 19th, 2020 7:58 AM Author: ultramarine disgusting public bath mother No shit, but the turnout is much higher than gop. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140603) |
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Date: October 19th, 2020 8:50 AM Author: translucent razzle-dazzle crackhouse Even your moniker is stupid. Or do you expect Pence to be sworn in sometime between now and January? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140786) |
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Date: October 19th, 2020 9:48 AM Author: rambunctious deer antler Of course. Trump isn’t messing around with any of that “I pardon myself” stuff. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140975) |
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Date: October 19th, 2020 10:26 AM Author: Confused fat ankles lol. cr moniker change (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41141169) |
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Date: October 19th, 2020 8:50 AM Author: translucent razzle-dazzle crackhouse Date: October 19th, 2020 7:58 AM Author: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr., the 47th POTUS
No shit, but the turnout is much higher than gop.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41140603)
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Date: October 19th, 2020 5:26 PM Author: Excitant plum sandwich cuck https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1318296918045429770 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4653945&forum_id=2#41143963) |