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what will libs do when the GOP has 60 senate seats
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:20 PM Author: filthy titillating hell and rural white states find their national brand anathema? scream and cry? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841738) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:22 PM Author: poppy twinkling uncleanness ape besides Tester and Manchin, what "rural white states" will the GOP gain? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841749) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:36 PM Author: Exciting goyim parlor Warnock is up in 2022, which should be a very possible pick up for GOP even with Georgia going more blue.
I don't know how likely it is but NH, NV, and AZ also have Senate races, all Dem incumbents.
2024- Dem incumbents in PA, MT, AZ, WI, MI, and OH. MT and OH are pretty plausible, the rest depend on how '22 goes and how the '24 environment is, but barring Biden wakes up feeling 20 years younger tomorrow, it's not unreasonable to bet on GOP riding waves. |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:07 AM Author: offensive beady-eyed new version The GA voting law should doom Warnick. Hopefully GA Republicans can find someone who is not a horrific neocon loser, although I have my doubts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842540) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 7:27 PM Author: Exciting goyim parlor Biden very narrowly won Georgia and has since been a disaster. The voting law (which if anything makes it easier to vote) is irrelevant.
Herschel Walker already has the Trump endorsement. |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:01 AM Author: provocative windowlicker From the current 50 baseline
2022: +Georgia +Nevada +New Hampshire +Arizona +Colorado (in a really good night)
=54
2024: +Arizona +Montana +Nevada +Ohio +Pennsylvania +West Virginia +Wisconsin
=61
Not even including Minnesota and Michigan |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:05 AM Author: provocative windowlicker 2026 Losses:
-Iowa -Maine -Montana -North Carolina -Texas |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 7:29 PM Author: Exciting goyim parlor Maine is a hard maybe (not a SINGLE major poll had Susan Collins beating Gideon in 2020, and she steamrolled through anyway; Maine people like her). North Carolina is a possible pick up for Dems.
LJL at any of the others. |
Date: January 24th, 2022 9:21 PM Author: Mentally impaired meetinghouse degenerate they'll do the same thing they do now–buttfuck each other and lick each other's cocks and balls (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841742) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:21 PM Author: poppy twinkling uncleanness ape wake up probably. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841746) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:22 PM Author: Concupiscible mahogany turdskin sex offender this will not happen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841755) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:25 PM Author: filthy titillating hell https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1483878710038175751
it will though. probably in 2024 if it is trump vs kamala or HER |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:27 PM Author: slippery boistinker this is fucking delusional (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841780) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:29 PM Author: filthy titillating hell It's really not. The senate map hugely favors Republicans due to the decline of ticket splitting, education polarization, and the fact that non-whites all live in their dysgenic coastal favelas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841787) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:37 PM Author: charismatic step-uncle's house I am old enough to remember Grover Norquist making this exact argument 25 years ago (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841846) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:41 PM Author: filthy titillating hell see the tweet I linked. educational polarization is backed up by hard data. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841863) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 9:43 PM Author: charismatic step-uncle's house The South is turning blue in front of our very eyes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43841873) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 10:50 PM Author: blathering half-breed You have to understand the simple number of white conservatives that die every year in Texas (roughly 200k) and how many mostly non-white mostly liberal citizens turn 18 every year in Texas (roughly 1.5M). Romney beat Obama In Texas by 1.25M votes, Trump beat Hillary by 900k, Trump beat Biden by 600k. Will be close in 2024 (and Cruz is up lol) and by 2028 and beyond it’s a toss up. Arizona is -50kish white conservatives and +60k mostly nonwhite people turning 18. Georgia is roughly -100k/+100k. Net migration into these states is a rounding error on these million voter swings and the GOP’s only chance is to massively succeed in persuasion.
Now consider the fact that non college white voters turnout lower in midterms and spiked up 6 points from 2016 to 2020 only to have Trump tell them for the last year that their vote was stolen and elections are rigged. If non college whites turn out as bad or worse than they did in 2018 the chances of the GOP picking up more than 2 seats are extremely slim. RCP map looks right ie 47 safe GOP seats, 46 safe Dem seats 7 toss ups (AZ, GA, NV, NH, NC, WI, PA). Dems just need their incumbents to win to keep the senate and if they get one of the GOP seats it’s very hard to imagine a chamber flip. GOP getting all 7 seems less likely than the Dems getting a pickup of one or two given the map and their built in advantages with the midterm electorate and incumbency. |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 11:00 PM Author: swollen puce filthpig people who are hurt recent massive ongoing spike in homeschooling is gonna hurt the lib factory of public education (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842285) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 11:04 PM Author: thriller topaz kitty "and how many mostly non-white mostly liberal citizens turn 18 every year in Texas (roughly 1.5M)"
Aren't hispanics increasingly going for the GOP though? See, e.g. Texas: https://www.vox.com/21549000/texas-election-results-trump-biden-hispanic-vote Republicans showed strength with Hispanic Texans Biden won the Hispanic vote by 19 points this year, according to the exits, but that’s down from Hillary Clinton’s 27-point margin in 2016. A number of heavily Hispanic counties in the Rio Grande Valley shifted toward Trump: Zapata County, to name one, broke for Trump by 5 points with most of the expected vote counted after Clinton won it by more than 30 points in 2016. The president’s share of the county’s vote jumped from 33 percent to 52 percent in his reelection bid.
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Date: January 24th, 2022 11:26 PM Author: blathering half-breed Hispanics under 30 went way heavier for Biden. But even if the new normal is 60/40 and only 20% of those 5M new voters turnout in 2024 you’re looking at a couple hundred thousand votes going into the Dem column and hundreds of thousands of GOP voters leaving the voter rolls because of their deaths. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842422) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 10:57 PM Author: carnelian razzmatazz digit ratio sit back and watch congress do nothing like we have been for the past decade (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842265) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 10:57 PM Author: vigorous cerise trailer park real question is what will GOP do. and the answer is nothing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842267) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 11:10 PM Author: Federal Area Regret this. GOP will do nothing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842339) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 3:06 PM Author: Brindle floppy principal's office persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43845367) |
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Date: January 24th, 2022 11:11 PM Author: slippery boistinker they will do nothing because OP is a delusional tard to even suggest the GOP will have 60 seats in 2024. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842347) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:05 AM Author: Bateful Seedy Famous Landscape Painting Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842537) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 7:29 PM Author: Pink messiness dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43846743) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:06 AM Author: offensive beady-eyed new version West Coast states secede, causing the break up of the US as we know it. Pelosi, the tech guys, CA lib legislative supermajority, etc. say fuck this we have no interest in being ruled by straight white men and WE OUT. Nobody lifts a finger to stop them, as most Red State people say "GTFO and sooner the better," CIA/ deep state/ Chicago & NYC/ globohomo are the only powersources that don't want it but even they can't convince the rest of the US to stop it militarily. And just like that, a house divided proves that it can stand just fine because it's been a long fucking time since we've been a house. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842538) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:17 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43842564) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 12:53 PM Author: rebellious abode immigrant Sounds 180. But here's my q - if there's a referendum, do both of OR and WA leave? And wouldn't we see the NE go too? Not that I'm not 100% fine with that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43844618) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 1:03 PM Author: offensive beady-eyed new version CA leads the way, OR and WA leave too despite seceding not being as popular.
Unclear that happens with Chicago and the Northeast. Neither are well set up for independence and the Northeast is just one giant welfare state that is a few business defections away from being insolvent. |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 1:11 PM Author: rebellious abode immigrant I suspect all of these places will be insolvent sooner or later. Businesses have been drawing down presence in CA, NY and similar places for years because of lib policies. If they have free reign to impose socialism they will bolt. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43844705) |
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Date: January 25th, 2022 1:05 PM Author: Outnumbered Exhilarant Theater Stage Jap and who is to say the deep state won't pivot hard to the right, provided we regain some kind of military footing in the world again? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43844676) |
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Date: January 26th, 2022 6:13 AM Author: Brindle floppy principal's office persian never too late to invade Syria! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5016051&forum_id=2#43848862) |