Summer box office bust? This season’s movie slate could put up the lowest haul in decades

Ryan Gosling stars in Universal's "The Fall Guy."

Ryan Gosling stars in Universal’s “The Fall Guy.”

Universal

For the first time since 2009, the box office doesn’t have a Marvel film to kick off the summer movie season — and it shows.

Since the 2008 release of “Iron Man,” Marvel Cinematic Universe films have consistently launched this highly lucrative moviegoing season, with only two films generating less than $100 million openings in that time (not including pandemic years).

This year, the headline film for the first summer weekend was Universal’s “The Fall Guy.” And despite strong marketing efforts and solid reviews, it failed to drum up ticket sales during its opening last weekend. The film tallied less than $28 million during its domestic debut.

″‘The Fall Guy’ had quality co-stars in Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but the lack of a known franchise brand and a niche storyline made it too narrow to attract a mass summer-like audience,” Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM, wrote in a note to investors Monday.

That stumble doesn’t bode well for the summer box office, which was already set to decline from last year’s $4.1 billion haul after dual Hollywood labor strikes halted production and clogged the pipeline of new film releases.

The result could send the 2024 summer box office down as much as $800 million compared to 2023, according to Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian, and have ripple effects for the whole year. After all, the key summer period, which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, typically accounts for 40% of the total annual domestic box office.

A limited and unsteady stream of new films means moviegoers haven’t been exposed to film trailers and poster promotions at their local cinemas and may not be aware of what features are headed to the big screen. Additionally, this summer’s movie slate is not as strong as prior years, with fewer blockbusters and major franchise films.

There’s only one superhero film slated for the summer — “Deadpool and Wolverine,” the first R-rated Disney Marvel flick — and it doesn’t arrive until late July.

At present, analysts believe the summer movie season will exceed $3 billion in ticket sales, but just barely. Before Covid, the summer box office consistently topped more than $4 billion. The last time ticket sales were as low as $3 billion during this season was in 2000, according to data from Comscore.

“Even with the inevitable year-over-year revenue downturn, the summer of ’24 should be judged more by the quality and value of the moviegoing experience than the quantity of box office cash in the drawer,” said Dergarabedian.

A lackluster summer

So far this quarter, the box office is tracking down 48% year-over-year, Handler noted. While he expects the May slate to help strengthen ticket sales, the box office “will need to see some big splashes” to “reclaim some lost ground.”

“Right now, cinema operators are in need of a significant content infusion,” Handler wrote. “Not only is the volume of content down in 2Q, but it also lacks sizzle.”

The biggest summer movie releases

May 9 — “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”

May 17 — “IF”

May 17 — “The Strangers: Chapter 1”

May 24 — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Story”

May 24 — “The Garfield Movie”

June 7 — “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”

June 14 — “Inside Out 2″

June 21 — “The Bikeriders”

June 28 — “A Quiet Place: Day One”

July 3 — “Despicable Me 4”

July 19 — “Twisters”

July 26 — “Deadpool and Wolverine”

August 9 — “Borderlands”

August 16 — “Alien: Romulus”

August 23 — “The Crow”

For the rest of May, Disney’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” is currently tracking for a domestic opening weekend of between $55 million and $60 million. Paramount’s “IF” is looking at around $40 million. And Warner Bros.′ “Furiosa” is expected to hit between $40 million and $50 million.

However, those forecasts pale in comparison to major releases during the same month last year. Universal’s “Fast X” tallied $67 million during its opening, and Disney’s live-action “The Little Mermaid” opened to $96 million.

It’s yet to be seen if this summer will have any breakout hits, like Angel’s “Sound of Freedom” last year, that could bolster the overall box office.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47644559)

tp?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47644608)

Doesn't this just mean the Studios go back to producing Marvel crap for soyboys next year? The article seems to be saying the lack of superhero shite is why the summer box office will suck.

Little Mermaid was a hit last summer?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47644571)

$28 million is actually pretty good for a RomCom....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47646345)

Plus, the movies are just awful.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47644640)

Batman

Ironman

Mission Impossible

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47646228)

why doesn't some studio just do it anyway

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47644625)

the movies they make now are just plain objectively bad. even the ones where they do their best not to inject any lib ideological cringe nonsense to ruin the movie. they are just bad movies, and the reason why they're bad is because the people writing the movies, directing the movies, creating the environment for the movies, and acting in the movies are untalented and bad at their jobs

it's not just the DEI brown people and women. the nepotism in hollywood is just absurd. particularly among jews. these people's offspring are all regressing to the mean and they just objectively suck, so their work products suck

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47644764)

Unfortunately every movie the past 10 years has been some sort of winking, or self-referential piece of art. It's the Avengers all talking about Schwarma. It's Best Picture movies that are just vignettes of a guy doing gay shit. To a certain extent, its even Oppenheimer having interspliced weird sex scenes and spending 90 minutes on an admin law instead of focusing on the bomb.

That stuff was all interesting to audiences at first, but it quickly wore thin - and Hollywood doesn't know where to go next. After you have Deadpool talking to camera, and super hero movies with 100 different super heroes - how do you get people to show up for a normal Superman movie?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526382&forum_id=2#47646348)