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XO POLL: Newcomb's Paradox, take one box or two❓

You are playing a game operated by the Predictor, a brain-sc...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
You must have missed when I did this thread a few months ago...
low effort MASE alt troll account
  06/26/26
did you really? I searched and all I saw was my own thread f...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
I pretended like it was a novel hypo so nobody would be lame...
low effort MASE alt troll account
  06/26/26
smart. your answer is Wrong though
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
(person who is easily convinced by LLM rhetoric)
low effort MASE alt troll account
  06/26/26
no? again, I made this thread in 2014, and my thinking on it...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
LLMs are all LessWrong bots and so they parrot the LessWrong...
low effort MASE alt troll account
  06/26/26
yeah, I haven't talked to an LLM about this. I agree it's th...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
CR thread. And one box is the cr answer.
Nazca Redlines
  06/26/26
A thousand bucks is a thousand bucks
if you believe it's real it is real
  06/26/26
Just box B.
the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)
  06/26/26
I would 1 box because I believe in the power of retrocausali...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
I’ve pondered this paradox for some time and I am conf...
Coach McGirk
  06/26/26
this is the typical argument for taking both (although POAST...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
Yeah, i forgot the: take both option for the extra grand. ...
Coach McGirk
  06/26/26
if the money is in the box and you take two boxes the comput...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
Yep the entire concept of retrocausality is incoherent
low effort MASE alt troll account
  06/26/26
but can you at least admit that it's also incoherent to hypo...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
Yeah I agree The whole hypo doesn't really make any sense...
low effort MASE alt troll account
  06/26/26
I would be curious to see a better formulation than mine. ...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
That would be even less plausible because in that case, the ...
Risten
  06/26/26
lol good point
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
great moniker. idk, maybe it turns out that a full mapping o...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
in that case Goy Superstar would always get $1000, not $1,00...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
yeah that's kind of my intuition tbh, that if your instinct ...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
Even if I were going to take both boxes (which I'm not!), I'...
the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)
  06/26/26
180
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
but if you take two boxes you ALWAYS get 1000 dollars more t...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
This is the logical conclusion but a massive tidal wave of a...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
180
low effort MASE alt troll account
  06/26/26
crrrrr
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
only box A
John Frum
  06/26/26
...
So we looked at the data
  06/26/26
...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
just box b, so that when the predictor makes its prediction ...
crime lord
  06/26/26
but but but you can't affect the past! the decision has alre...
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
? not affecting the past. being a person in the present ...
crime lord
  06/26/26
I agree 💰🤑💰 just parroting the two-boxers' point
Ape Arrogance
  06/26/26
🦜 🦜
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/26/26
"but i did have breakfast today" - a two-boxer, pr...
crime lord
  06/27/26
...
a simple jewish ape who likes the sea
  06/27/26
Just box b obviously. There’s some odds that it contai...
Biglaw partner throwin' ya some overtime
  06/26/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 9:51 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

You are playing a game operated by the Predictor, a brain-scanning computer exceptionally skilled at predicting people's actions. It predicts correctly 99.99999% of the time.

You are presented with two boxes, one transparent (labeled A) and the other opaque (labeled B). You have two choices: take the contents of both boxes, or just the opaque Box B. Box A contains a visible $1,000. The contents of Box B, however, are determined as follows: At some point before the start of the game, the Predictor makes a prediction as to whether you will take just Box B, or both boxes. If the Predictor predicts that both boxes will be taken, then Box B will contain nothing. If the Predictor predicts that only Box B will be taken, then Box B will contain $1,000,000.

By the time the game begins, the prediction has already been made, and the contents of Box B have already been determined. That is, Box B contains either $0 or $1,000,000 before the game begins, and once the game begins even the Predictor is powerless to change the contents of the boxes.

Do you take both boxes, or just Box B?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964924)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 9:52 PM
Author: low effort MASE alt troll account

You must have missed when I did this thread a few months ago. Gunnerattt was NOT PLEASED with my two boxing preference

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964926)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 9:55 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

did you really? I searched and all I saw was my own thread from 2014

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964930)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: low effort MASE alt troll account

I pretended like it was a novel hypo so nobody would be lame and look it up

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964937)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

smart. your answer is Wrong though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964938)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:03 PM
Author: low effort MASE alt troll account

(person who is easily convinced by LLM rhetoric)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964940)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:05 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

no? again, I made this thread in 2014, and my thinking on it hasn't changed. or are you just saying that to undermine my intellect more generally? get with the program, even my haters admit I'm smart in 2026 bitchhh 🗳️

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964942)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:11 PM
Author: low effort MASE alt troll account

LLMs are all LessWrong bots and so they parrot the LessWrong interpretations of newcombs and similar thought experiments (which are wrong but they've successfully poisoned the well now because everyone from here on out will just defer to LLMs)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964946)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:12 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

yeah, I haven't talked to an LLM about this. I agree it's the type of thing that would be poisoned by LW/Reddit garbage.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964947)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:20 PM
Author: Nazca Redlines

CR thread. And one box is the cr answer.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965019)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 9:59 PM
Author: if you believe it's real it is real (🧐)

A thousand bucks is a thousand bucks

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964933)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:02 PM
Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)

Just box B.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964939)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:08 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea

I would 1 box because I believe in the power of retrocausality. You can tell me I'm wrong but as long as I take 1 box and the machine is always right I always get the million. There's no risk or downside unless the machine is wrong then well the machine failed to predict that I would only take one box.

If we learn somehow that the machine is wrong more often than presumed then I would two box. Because the wronger the machine the better it is to take two. But if it's infallible the retrocausality is real because you can effect the past by your present actions. If it's 100% impossible for the machine to be wrong then you always get a million for taking one box and two boxers always get 1000.

Two boxers can argue that retrocausality isn't real however it's implied by the hypo that it must be possible the closer the machine gets to 100% accuracy. And that's why the hypo itself is flawed because it's an impossible experiment in reality.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964945)



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Date: June 26th, 2026 10:39 PM
Author: Coach McGirk

I’ve pondered this paradox for some time and I am confused as to why I would do anything but take box B only. Seems like an overwhelmingly good chance of getting 1,000,000. If I take that then it has already been predicted with very good accuracy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964963)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:43 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

this is the typical argument for taking both (although POASTERS may have something better):

the money is already in the boxes by the time you're called on to make your choice. no matter what it predicted, you get more money by taking both. if it predicted both, you get $1,000 instead of $0. If it predicted one, you get $1,001,000 instead of $1,000,000.

one intuition pump: imagine your best friend is there, on the opposite side of the boxes, and he can see into them. no matter what, he's going to tell you take both.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964968)



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Date: June 26th, 2026 10:48 PM
Author: Coach McGirk

Yeah, i forgot the: take both option for the extra grand. Either way, i go with the idea that the machine has predicted whatever it is that i end up doing. People overrate the idea of free will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964978)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:49 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea

if the money is in the box and you take two boxes the computer is wrong. if the money is not in the box and you take one box the computer is wrong. the entire hypo hinges on whether or not the computer can or cannot be wrong (and how often!). If the computer is infallible then you should always take 1 an activate retrocausality. The people who say always 2 box cannot reconcile that if the computer can't be wrong then you should always take the million. But ultimately the hypo is impossible because how would a computer know what you would do ahead of time?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964981)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:55 PM
Author: low effort MASE alt troll account

Yep the entire concept of retrocausality is incoherent

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964988)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:58 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea

but can you at least admit that it's also incoherent to hypothesize a computer that can literally predict human will? in order for retrocausality to be impossible, the computer would have to have a crystal ball into the future at the time that the money is placed in the boxes. So you think it's insane that someone would think that their present actions could alter the past but it's not crazy that a computer could see into the future?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964990)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:03 PM
Author: low effort MASE alt troll account

Yeah I agree

The whole hypo doesn't really make any sense. There are better version of it that the LessWrong fags made up that actually make coherent sense

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964995)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:07 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

I would be curious to see a better formulation than mine.

I know there's one where the Predictor is a really talented psychologist who has spent years profiling you, analyzing every waking move you've ever made since birth (maybe it's in the form of transcripts or they watch you at accelerated speed or something), and has never been wrong predicting a decision of anyone they've studied.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965005)



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Date: June 26th, 2026 11:30 PM
Author: Risten

That would be even less plausible because in that case, the psychiatrist would have kicked ass on Step 1 and med school rotations and gone into plastics or derm rather than a failure retard residency like psych

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965030)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:36 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

lol good point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965035)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:54 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965054)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:01 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

great moniker. idk, maybe it turns out that a full mapping of your neural activity/connectome/body chemistry plus a knowledge of the trajectory of all the other molecules in the world is enough to predict your actions with near certainty.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964991)



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Date: June 26th, 2026 11:02 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea

in that case Goy Superstar would always get $1000, not $1,001,000 lmao

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964994)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:04 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

yeah that's kind of my intuition tbh, that if your instinct is to take both boxes then you're just fukt compared to someone whose instinct is to take B

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964997)



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Date: June 26th, 2026 10:52 PM
Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)

Even if I were going to take both boxes (which I'm not!), I'm sure as fuck going to poast ITT that I'm a ride-or-die Box B'er so that I can juice The Predictor and not have that faggot shortchange me.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964985)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:54 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964986)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:54 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea

but if you take two boxes you ALWAYS get 1000 dollars more than what the machine gave you! and you CANNOT INFLUENCE THE PAST! the decision is ALREDY MADE when you walk into the Chamber

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964987)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:45 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea

This is the logical conclusion but a massive tidal wave of autists are about to swoop in to remind you that retrocausality doesn't exist, whatever the computer decided it decided before you enter into the room, you can't change it, your behavior and actions have no bearing, the computer made up its mind long ago, and therefore you should ALWAYS TWO BOX because you get Box 1 + $1000 so you will ALWAYS make 1000 dollars more than what you would have if you only took 1 box.

These midwit redditors absolutely love to stroke themselves to reminding you that RETROCAUSALITY is IMPOSSIBLE so you CANNOT EFFECT whether the million is in one of the boxes. So it LITERALLY DOES NOT MATTER if you take one or both, and both is always 1000 MORE. They will tell you this over and over til your ears bleed. They can't get enough of dunking on 1 boxers with the NO RETROCAUSALITY argument, which they love more than life itself.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964973)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:04 PM
Author: low effort MASE alt troll account

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964999)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:08 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

crrrrr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965009)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:40 PM
Author: John Frum

only box A

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964964)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:44 PM
Author: So we looked at the data



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964969)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 10:45 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49964972)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:06 PM
Author: crime lord

just box b, so that when the predictor makes its prediction i will have been going to pick box b

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965000)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:10 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

but but but you can't affect the past! the decision has already been made!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965010)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:14 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965015)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:35 PM
Author: crime lord

?

not affecting the past. being a person in the present who is rich in the future 😎

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965034)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:37 PM
Author: Ape Arrogance

I agree 💰🤑💰 just parroting the two-boxers' point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965037)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:55 PM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea

🦜 🦜

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965055)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 27th, 2026 12:17 AM
Author: crime lord

"but i did have breakfast today" - a two-boxer, probably 🤣

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965066)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 27th, 2026 12:18 AM
Author: a simple jewish ape who likes the sea



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965068)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 26th, 2026 11:41 PM
Author: Biglaw partner throwin' ya some overtime

Just box b obviously. There’s some odds that it contains 1 mil.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5877705&forum_id=2",#49965043)