The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/10/15 |
| maroon state | 12/12/15 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 01/02/17 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 01/06/16 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 01/06/16 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 06/05/16 |
| pink brethren | 03/26/16 |
| Shimmering plaza | 01/02/17 |
| cowardly carmine knife brunch | 10/25/18 |
| unhinged lodge | 12/10/15 |
| talented temple | 12/10/15 |
| Painfully honest diverse address | 12/10/15 |
| Irradiated cream library factory reset button | 12/10/15 |
| Black filthy azn | 12/15/15 |
| Magenta supple mental disorder indirect expression | 12/10/15 |
| jet-lagged business firm elastic band | 12/10/15 |
| Titillating Chrome Rehab Wrinkle | 12/10/15 |
| Beady-eyed Field Digit Ratio | 12/11/15 |
| honey-headed weed whacker | 12/12/15 |
| Snowy Electric Location Stain | 12/16/15 |
| flickering chocolate bawdyhouse | 01/04/16 |
| Emerald philosopher-king | 11/09/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/11/15 |
| flirting dysfunction | 12/11/15 |
| ebony narrow-minded police squad | 12/11/15 |
| Beady-eyed Field Digit Ratio | 12/11/15 |
| mint chest-beating haunted graveyard mother | 12/12/15 |
| Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office | 01/25/16 |
| fishy organic girlfriend jap | 11/10/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/12/15 |
| passionate ruby gay wizard | 12/12/15 |
| Razzmatazz big-titted stead | 12/12/15 |
| Stimulating Drunken Foreskin | 12/12/15 |
| 180 french chef | 12/15/15 |
| french office milk | 12/21/15 |
| khaki useless newt | 12/12/15 |
| concupiscible chapel preventive strike | 12/12/15 |
| dull sinister private investor | 12/12/15 |
| vibrant mad cow disease garrison | 12/12/15 |
| Sickened kitty cat | 12/12/15 |
| Odious Slap-happy Candlestick Maker Heaven | 12/12/15 |
| jet-lagged business firm elastic band | 12/15/15 |
| jet-lagged business firm elastic band | 12/16/15 |
| floppy skinny woman bbw | 12/15/15 |
| Drab Voyeur | 12/15/15 |
| well-lubricated principal's office sex offender | 12/15/15 |
| Ocher halford | 12/15/15 |
| Idiotic grizzly sound barrier | 12/15/15 |
| federal messiness hairy legs | 12/15/15 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/15/15 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/15/15 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/15/15 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/15/15 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 12/15/15 |
| Spectacular carnelian university | 01/05/16 |
| Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office | 01/25/16 |
| charcoal dashing sneaky criminal | 12/17/16 |
| turquoise pisswyrm lay | 05/18/16 |
| arousing selfie | 08/12/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 11/09/16 |
| Hot pearly sandwich cuckoldry | 11/09/16 |
| bat shit crazy hospital double fault | 10/22/20 |
| Shaky step-uncle's house | 12/15/15 |
| Fragrant wagecucks idea he suggested | 12/16/15 |
| red swashbuckling keepsake machete | 12/16/15 |
| elite dog poop | 12/16/15 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 12/16/15 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 12/17/15 |
| exhilarant balding hall fanboi | 12/18/15 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 01/06/16 |
| Stirring Space | 12/18/15 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 12/21/15 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 12/21/15 |
| french office milk | 12/21/15 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 12/30/15 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 12/30/15 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 01/04/16 |
| flickering chocolate bawdyhouse | 01/04/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 01/05/16 |
| Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office | 01/25/16 |
| exhilarant balding hall fanboi | 01/05/16 |
| saffron mood becky | 01/05/16 |
| dark exciting rigor public bath | 01/05/16 |
| vivacious nudist sanctuary | 01/05/16 |
| sooty property national security agency | 01/05/16 |
| vivacious nudist sanctuary | 01/05/16 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 01/06/16 |
| vivacious nudist sanctuary | 01/06/16 |
| sooty property national security agency | 01/05/16 |
| arousing selfie | 01/06/16 |
| french office milk | 01/07/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 01/08/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 01/08/16 |
| french office milk | 01/08/16 |
| exhilarant balding hall fanboi | 01/09/16 |
| french office milk | 01/10/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 01/18/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 01/19/16 |
| exhilarant balding hall fanboi | 01/21/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 01/25/16 |
| Lavender Thriller Orchestra Pit Corn Cake | 01/25/16 |
| Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office | 01/25/16 |
| Lavender Thriller Orchestra Pit Corn Cake | 02/09/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 09/06/16 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 11/05/18 |
| brindle galvanic degenerate really tough guy | 01/29/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 02/01/16 |
| bateful salmon pervert | 02/01/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 02/01/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 02/07/16 |
| saffron mood becky | 02/09/16 |
| marvelous chestnut school | 02/09/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 02/20/16 |
| Brass Motley Ladyboy | 02/20/16 |
| turquoise pisswyrm lay | 02/24/16 |
| Slate frum filthpig | 02/24/16 |
| histrionic theater stage | 02/27/16 |
| floppy skinny woman bbw | 03/09/16 |
| Glittery Twinkling Uncleanness House | 03/15/16 |
| Painfully honest diverse address | 03/15/16 |
| Drab Voyeur | 03/16/16 |
| insanely creepy home boistinker | 02/24/16 |
| medicated theater jewess | 02/24/16 |
| Drab Voyeur | 07/21/16 |
| gay flatulent menage | 02/24/16 |
| Painfully honest diverse address | 02/27/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/02/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/04/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/09/16 |
| saffron mood becky | 03/09/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/15/16 |
| turquoise pisswyrm lay | 03/15/16 |
| Iridescent disturbing nursing home | 03/15/16 |
| harsh persian internal respiration | 03/15/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/16/16 |
| jet-lagged business firm elastic band | 03/16/16 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 03/23/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/23/16 |
| dull sinister private investor | 03/26/16 |
| splenetic frozen whorehouse | 03/26/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/26/16 |
| Spectacular carnelian university | 03/28/16 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 03/28/16 |
| talented temple | 03/28/16 |
| arousing selfie | 08/12/16 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 11/05/18 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/28/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/29/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 03/29/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 03/29/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/29/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/29/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 04/01/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 04/04/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 04/15/16 |
| excitant obsidian partner | 04/15/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 04/19/16 |
| fiercely-loyal spot | 04/20/16 |
| Laughsome stag film crotch | 04/20/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 04/24/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 04/25/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 04/26/16 |
| soul-stirring station | 04/26/16 |
| lemon tank travel guidebook | 04/30/16 |
| Thirsty Geriatric Senate Multi-billionaire | 05/01/16 |
| Thirsty Geriatric Senate Multi-billionaire | 11/07/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/02/16 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 05/02/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/03/16 |
| big lilac theatre | 05/03/16 |
| Abusive Curious Son Of Senegal | 05/03/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/04/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 05/04/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/05/16 |
| vibrant mad cow disease garrison | 05/05/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 05/05/16 |
| medicated theater jewess | 05/05/16 |
| passionate ruby gay wizard | 05/18/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/18/16 |
| turquoise pisswyrm lay | 05/18/16 |
| passionate ruby gay wizard | 05/18/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 05/29/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 06/20/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 06/29/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 07/14/16 |
| Cerebral rusted dingle berry | 07/15/16 |
| arousing selfie | 07/15/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 07/17/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 07/17/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 07/21/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 07/22/16 |
| lascivious impertinent mexican corner | 07/22/16 |
| Amethyst hell | 07/23/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 07/24/16 |
| Cracking cuck | 07/25/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 07/25/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 07/27/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 08/05/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 08/09/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 08/12/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 08/12/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 08/12/16 |
| Boyish Juggernaut | 08/12/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 08/30/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 08/30/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 09/06/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 09/13/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 09/14/16 |
| khaki useless newt | 09/14/16 |
| Mahogany turdskin patrolman | 09/15/16 |
| aphrodisiac unholy center | 09/15/16 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 09/15/16 |
| Orange adventurous antidepressant drug | 09/15/16 |
| Mind-boggling internet-worthy den | 09/15/16 |
| provocative avocado abode ape | 09/19/16 |
| provocative avocado abode ape | 09/19/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 09/27/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 09/24/16 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 09/27/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 09/27/16 |
| jet-lagged business firm elastic band | 09/27/16 |
| Underhanded Institution People Who Are Hurt | 10/08/16 |
| trip puppy | 07/29/24 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 09/28/16 |
| khaki useless newt | 09/28/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 09/28/16 |
| Laughsome stag film crotch | 09/28/16 |
| excitant obsidian partner | 09/28/16 |
| Nubile jade parlor dragon | 10/08/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 10/09/16 |
| Out-of-control Comical Therapy Feces | 10/09/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 10/09/16 |
| Appetizing Market Alpha | 10/09/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 10/10/16 |
| Cracking cuck | 10/30/16 |
| arousing selfie | 11/01/16 |
| Orange adventurous antidepressant drug | 11/01/16 |
| Mauve Forum Quadroon | 11/02/16 |
| Ocher halford | 11/02/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 11/07/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle swollen set water buffalo | 11/08/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 11/08/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/08/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 11/08/16 |
| charismatic shrine | 11/08/16 |
| Hairraiser navy nowag fortuitous meteor | 11/08/16 |
| bateful salmon pervert | 11/08/16 |
| provocative avocado abode ape | 11/08/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/08/16 |
| heady pozpig personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| Mahogany turdskin patrolman | 11/09/16 |
| confused boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| Orange adventurous antidepressant drug | 11/09/16 |
| heady pozpig personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| Cracking cuck | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant mad cow disease garrison | 11/09/16 |
| Contagious potus roast beef | 12/03/16 |
| fishy organic girlfriend jap | 12/07/16 |
| charcoal dashing sneaky criminal | 12/17/16 |
| racy crusty native trust fund | 10/11/24 |
| fuchsia alcoholic base | 11/09/16 |
| Wonderful Church | 11/09/16 |
| umber party of the first part | 11/09/16 |
| Outnumbered rigpig ticket booth | 11/09/16 |
| Contagious potus roast beef | 11/09/16 |
| arousing selfie | 11/09/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| passionate ruby gay wizard | 11/09/16 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 11/09/16 |
| rebellious cruise ship incel | 11/09/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| hilarious violent volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| Topaz pit fat ankles | 11/09/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| Irradiated cream library factory reset button | 11/09/16 |
| Stirring Space | 11/10/16 |
| Lavender Thriller Orchestra Pit Corn Cake | 11/10/16 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 11/10/16 |
| goyim | 11/10/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/10/16 |
| Multi-colored Violent Stage | 11/10/16 |
| Brass Motley Ladyboy | 11/10/16 |
| provocative avocado abode ape | 11/14/16 |
| cocky stage | 11/14/16 |
| Aggressive pocket flask range | 12/04/16 |
| charcoal dashing sneaky criminal | 12/17/16 |
| racy crusty native trust fund | 10/11/24 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/25/16 |
| bearded tanning salon | 12/03/16 |
| Appetizing Market Alpha | 12/04/16 |
| Self-centered kitchen faggotry | 12/07/16 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 12/07/16 |
| bearded tanning salon | 12/07/16 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 01/02/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/02/17 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 01/02/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/02/17 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 03/03/20 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 01/02/17 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 01/16/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/20/17 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 01/20/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/23/17 |
| Nubile jade parlor dragon | 01/23/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/23/17 |
| lake site giraffe | 01/23/17 |
| Nubile jade parlor dragon | 01/23/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/23/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/25/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 01/26/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 02/06/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 02/13/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 02/27/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 05/03/17 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/03/17 |
| Twinkling Indian Lodge | 09/21/17 |
| Painfully honest diverse address | 01/23/17 |
| Orange adventurous antidepressant drug | 02/27/17 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 03/22/17 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 04/17/17 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/08/17 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 06/20/17 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 08/10/17 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 10/15/17 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 10/15/17 |
| Soggy associate | 10/15/17 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/06/17 |
| Hateful cheese-eating area | 11/06/17 |
| Rambunctious Point Regret | 11/08/17 |
| national | 11/08/17 |
| yellow nibblets resort | 11/13/17 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 12/18/17 |
| Vigorous Olive Psychic | 12/18/17 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 12/18/17 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 01/30/18 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 06/01/18 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 07/18/18 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 07/19/18 |
| Mind-boggling internet-worthy den | 09/20/18 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 09/25/18 |
| talented temple | 10/06/18 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 10/06/18 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 10/25/18 |
| aphrodisiac unholy center | 10/25/18 |
| Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office | 11/05/18 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 11/05/18 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 11/05/18 |
| azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency | 11/05/18 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 01/08/19 |
| casino | 02/23/19 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 03/13/19 |
| Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office | 06/24/19 |
| school cafeteria | 06/24/19 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 11/18/19 |
| Orange adventurous antidepressant drug | 02/12/20 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 02/12/20 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 03/24/20 |
| tan locus useless brakes | 03/24/20 |
| Cerebral rusted dingle berry | 04/04/20 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 04/26/20 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 05/13/20 |
| Cerebral rusted dingle berry | 06/05/20 |
| citrine parlour | 06/05/20 |
| Cerebral rusted dingle berry | 09/09/20 |
| Orange adventurous antidepressant drug | 09/09/20 |
| unhinged lodge | 09/09/20 |
| flesh nofapping roommate macaca | 09/12/20 |
| Bipolar Dilemma | 09/24/20 |
| school cafeteria | 10/09/20 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 10/10/20 |
| opaque toilet seat | 10/22/20 |
| Contagious potus roast beef | 10/22/20 |
| bat shit crazy hospital double fault | 10/22/20 |
| bat shit crazy hospital double fault | 10/22/20 |
| trump supporter lettuce | 03/23/22 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 10/27/20 |
| Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park | 10/27/20 |
| school cafeteria | 10/30/20 |
| ivory crackhouse stock car | 11/03/20 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/22/22 |
| insecure embarrassed to the bone meetinghouse | 03/23/22 |
| bossy indigo affirmative action piazza | 03/23/22 |
| Hissy Fit | 03/23/22 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 07/25/22 |
| unhinged lodge | 07/25/22 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 10/23/22 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 11/16/22 |
| aromatic church building shitlib | 04/25/23 |
| passionate ruby gay wizard | 04/25/23 |
| Bipolar Dilemma | 04/29/23 |
| trip puppy | 05/28/23 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 02/22/24 |
| Bipolar Dilemma | 02/23/24 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 05/23/24 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 08/26/24 |
| Bipolar Dilemma | 09/13/24 |
| unhinged lodge | 09/13/24 |
| Bipolar Dilemma | 10/18/24 |
| racy crusty native trust fund | 10/11/24 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 11/06/24 |
| vibrant mad cow disease garrison | 03/04/25 |
| vibrant mad cow disease garrison | 03/04/25 |
| Mind-boggling internet-worthy den | 03/04/25 |
| racy crusty native trust fund | 03/04/25 |
| bronze deer antler gas station | 03/04/25 |
| Offensive Ungodly | 03/05/25 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/07/25 |
| Stubborn Territorial Clown | 03/07/25 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/08/25 |
| doobsian | 03/08/25 |
| razzle locale coffee pot | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: maroon state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: pink brethren 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Shimmering plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: cowardly carmine knife brunch "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: unhinged lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: talented temple 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Painfully honest diverse address 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Irradiated cream library factory reset button Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Black filthy azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Magenta supple mental disorder indirect expression FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: jet-lagged business firm elastic band Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Titillating Chrome Rehab Wrinkle Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Beady-eyed Field Digit Ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: honey-headed weed whacker Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Snowy Electric Location Stain Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: flickering chocolate bawdyhouse Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Emerald philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: flirting dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: ebony narrow-minded police squad 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Beady-eyed Field Digit Ratio November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: mint chest-beating haunted graveyard mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: fishy organic girlfriend jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: passionate ruby gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Razzmatazz big-titted stead lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Stimulating Drunken Foreskin March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: 180 french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: french office milk 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: khaki useless newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: concupiscible chapel preventive strike lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: dull sinister private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: vibrant mad cow disease garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Sickened kitty cat Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Odious Slap-happy Candlestick Maker Heaven Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: jet-lagged business firm elastic band OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: jet-lagged business firm elastic band And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: floppy skinny woman bbw 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Drab Voyeur fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: well-lubricated principal's office sex offender I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Ocher halford 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Idiotic grizzly sound barrier February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: federal messiness hairy legs You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Spectacular carnelian university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: charcoal dashing sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: turquoise pisswyrm lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: arousing selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Hot pearly sandwich cuckoldry Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bat shit crazy hospital double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Shaky step-uncle's house This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Fragrant wagecucks idea he suggested 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: red swashbuckling keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: elite dog poop Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: exhilarant balding hall fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Stirring Space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: french office milk 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: flickering chocolate bawdyhouse flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: exhilarant balding hall fanboi From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: saffron mood becky 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: dark exciting rigor public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: vivacious nudist sanctuary An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: sooty property national security agency 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: vivacious nudist sanctuary I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: vivacious nudist sanctuary Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: sooty property national security agency No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: arousing selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: french office milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: french office milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: exhilarant balding hall fanboi http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: french office milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: exhilarant balding hall fanboi looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Lavender Thriller Orchestra Pit Corn Cake 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Lavender Thriller Orchestra Pit Corn Cake No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: brindle galvanic degenerate really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: bateful salmon pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: saffron mood becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: marvelous chestnut school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Brass Motley Ladyboy OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: turquoise pisswyrm lay PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Slate frum filthpig The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: histrionic theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: floppy skinny woman bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Glittery Twinkling Uncleanness House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Painfully honest diverse address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Drab Voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: insanely creepy home boistinker hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: medicated theater jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Drab Voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: gay flatulent menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Painfully honest diverse address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: saffron mood becky yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: turquoise pisswyrm lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Iridescent disturbing nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: harsh persian internal respiration truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: jet-lagged business firm elastic band March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: dull sinister private investor http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: splenetic frozen whorehouse Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Spectacular carnelian university jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: talented temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: arousing selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: excitant obsidian partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: fiercely-loyal spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Laughsome stag film crotch I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: soul-stirring station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: lemon tank travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Thirsty Geriatric Senate Multi-billionaire Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Thirsty Geriatric Senate Multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: big lilac theatre holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Abusive Curious Son Of Senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: vibrant mad cow disease garrison Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: medicated theater jewess Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: passionate ruby gay wizard This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: turquoise pisswyrm lay In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: passionate ruby gay wizard cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Cerebral rusted dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: arousing selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: lascivious impertinent mexican corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Amethyst hell Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Cracking cuck Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Boyish Juggernaut LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: khaki useless newt Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Mahogany turdskin patrolman September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: aphrodisiac unholy center September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Orange adventurous antidepressant drug XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Mind-boggling internet-worthy den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: provocative avocado abode ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: provocative avocado abode ape The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: jet-lagged business firm elastic band This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Underhanded Institution People Who Are Hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: trip puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: khaki useless newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Laughsome stag film crotch This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: excitant obsidian partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Nubile jade parlor dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Out-of-control Comical Therapy Feces Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Appetizing Market Alpha half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Cracking cuck close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: arousing selfie Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Orange adventurous antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Mauve Forum Quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Ocher halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle swollen set water buffalo You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: charismatic shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Hairraiser navy nowag fortuitous meteor Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: bateful salmon pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: provocative avocado abode ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: heady pozpig personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Mahogany turdskin patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: confused boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Orange adventurous antidepressant drug GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: heady pozpig personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Cracking cuck it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: vibrant mad cow disease garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Contagious potus roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: fishy organic girlfriend jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: charcoal dashing sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: racy crusty native trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: fuchsia alcoholic base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Wonderful Church Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: umber party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Outnumbered rigpig ticket booth 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Contagious potus roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: arousing selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: passionate ruby gay wizard this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: rebellious cruise ship incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: hilarious violent volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Topaz pit fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Irradiated cream library factory reset button you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Stirring Space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Lavender Thriller Orchestra Pit Corn Cake Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Multi-colored Violent Stage ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Brass Motley Ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: provocative avocado abode ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: cocky stage They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Aggressive pocket flask range Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: charcoal dashing sneaky criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: racy crusty native trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: bearded tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Appetizing Market Alpha GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Self-centered kitchen faggotry https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: bearded tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Nubile jade parlor dragon TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: lake site giraffe I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Nubile jade parlor dragon it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Twinkling Indian Lodge https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Painfully honest diverse address this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Orange adventurous antidepressant drug One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Soggy associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Hateful cheese-eating area credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Rambunctious Point Regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: yellow nibblets resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Vigorous Olive Psychic Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Mind-boggling internet-worthy den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: talented temple It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: aphrodisiac unholy center Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: azure self-absorbed international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Chartreuse sweet tailpipe box office There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Orange adventurous antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: tan locus useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Cerebral rusted dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Cerebral rusted dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: citrine parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Cerebral rusted dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Orange adventurous antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: unhinged lodge Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: flesh nofapping roommate macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Bipolar Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: opaque toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Contagious potus roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bat shit crazy hospital double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: bat shit crazy hospital double fault https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: trump supporter lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Duck-like Massive Yarmulke Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: ivory crackhouse stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: insecure embarrassed to the bone meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: bossy indigo affirmative action piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Hissy Fit 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: unhinged lodge A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: aromatic church building shitlib Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: aromatic church building shitlib https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: passionate ruby gay wizard why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Bipolar Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: trip puppy FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Bipolar Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Bipolar Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: unhinged lodge One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Bipolar Dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: racy crusty native trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: vibrant mad cow disease garrison 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: vibrant mad cow disease garrison https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Mind-boggling internet-worthy den Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: racy crusty native trust fund The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: bronze deer antler gas station He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Offensive Ungodly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Stubborn Territorial Clown 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: razzle locale coffee pot "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: doobsian Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: razzle locale coffee pot Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2",#49679495) |