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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
arrogant temple ceo
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
arrogant temple ceo
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
arrogant temple ceo
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
Jet cerebral background story
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Talented jewess yarmulke
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
Dull Space
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
Floppy Chocolate Tank
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
Dull Space
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
Dull Space
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
Floppy Chocolate Tank
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
Floppy Chocolate Tank
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
fluffy crackhouse
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
vibrant emerald lay
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
Out-of-control Hairraiser Indirect Expression Hall
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/06/26
...
Dull Space
  01/06/26
cr
Charismatic clown
  01/06/26
...
swashbuckling splenetic doctorate
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
silver parlor
  01/06/26
...
Self-centered famous landscape painting
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
Marvelous unholy macaca
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
Marvelous unholy macaca
  01/06/26
...
fluffy crackhouse
  01/06/26
...
odious locus laser beams
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
Ultramarine library blood rage
  01/06/26
...
Floppy Chocolate Tank
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
Floppy Chocolate Tank
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
Dull Space
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
fluffy crackhouse
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
Dull Space
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
Floppy Chocolate Tank
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
Jet cerebral background story
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
Angry locale organic girlfriend
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
Trip Canary Box Office Cuck
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye
  01/06/26
...
Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
contagious sanctuary pistol
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
Vermilion lodge chad
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
fluffy crackhouse
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
carnelian degenerate institution
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
Self-centered famous landscape painting
  01/07/26
?
Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
Jet cerebral background story
  01/07/26
...
UN peacekeeper
  01/10/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: arrogant temple ceo

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: arrogant temple ceo

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: arrogant temple ceo

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: Jet cerebral background story

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Talented jewess yarmulke

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: Dull Space

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: Floppy Chocolate Tank

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Dull Space

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Dull Space

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Floppy Chocolate Tank

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Floppy Chocolate Tank

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: fluffy crackhouse

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: vibrant emerald lay

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: Out-of-control Hairraiser Indirect Expression Hall

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Dull Space



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: Charismatic clown

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: swashbuckling splenetic doctorate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: silver parlor

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: Self-centered famous landscape painting



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: Marvelous unholy macaca

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: Marvelous unholy macaca

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: fluffy crackhouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: odious locus laser beams



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: Ultramarine library blood rage

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: Floppy Chocolate Tank



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Floppy Chocolate Tank

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: Dull Space

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: fluffy crackhouse

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Dull Space

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Floppy Chocolate Tank

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: Jet cerebral background story

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: Angry locale organic girlfriend

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: Trip Canary Box Office Cuck

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: contagious sanctuary pistol

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: Vermilion lodge chad

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: fluffy crackhouse

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: carnelian degenerate institution

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: Self-centered famous landscape painting

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: Cheese-eating Spectacular Dilemma Round Eye

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: Jet cerebral background story

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: UN peacekeeper



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49579920)