Seems obvious the S&P500 & DJIA will trim 10-15% some time in the next 12 months
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:23 AM Author: Thriller personal credit line
People like you thought this last year too. And the year before.
Eventually you’ll be right, after missing out on 50% gains.
I remember a prominent poaster loudly proclaiming he was going all cash after the first few months of the Trump run first term.
He retired a couple of years later. The S&P is up 3x since.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49331484) |
Date: October 7th, 2025 10:25 AM Author: Disrespectful Menage
ive been selling so that means market will moon another 10-20% easily
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49331489)
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Date: October 7th, 2025 11:02 AM Author: Avocado Field Community Account
If consensus was 10% drop then the market would drop 10% now.
I think the current gains aren’t sustainable. But that might just mean a decade of slow gains.
I am diversifying. Was 99% VOO for the past ten years. But I’m adding some BND and SGOV for diversification. If the market tanks 10% I’ll move back to full VOO.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49331550) |
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:06 AM Author: big ruby center
trying to time this is stupid. over the last 12 years, you could identify 2-3 times a year when equities looked way too high and a pullback was "certain."
just keep DCAing into the market. forever
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49331555) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 2:54 PM Author: aromatic mental disorder hospital
when
(a) you need the money or
(b) clearly have somewhere better to put it (eg exuent is pushing $8 SOL)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49332138)
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Date: October 7th, 2025 12:35 PM Author: Cerise Slimy Range Idiot
timing the market is very dangerous. just DCA and let do.
i've always been a big believer in the S&P or total stock market index funds, but i have put like $250k into individual stocks - TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, HOOD, RKLB (thanks poaster). i think these companies are all strong long-term HODLS. i could be wrong, who knows.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49331769) |
Date: October 7th, 2025 3:12 PM Author: soul-stirring newt trailer park
the premise of this is that AI is hype, when we are still seeing reasonable sized gains on most AI benchmarks every 1-2 months. Opus 4.1 and Sonnet 2.5 were released two months apart and saw a small but meaningful performance boost. the current training runs likely only used a maximum of around 10x the training compute of the first version of GPT-4, and the new clusters will support 100x training runs. in all likelihood, the models 2 years from now are likely to be significantly more powerful and generally useful and could plausibly justify even more crazy datacenter building.
energy is likely to only be a major obstacle by around 2030, when training runs are likely to be capped at 10,000x GPT-4 scale.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49332171) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 9:24 PM Author: Frozen theater stage
One of the most interesting frontiers in machine learning at the moment is combining reasoning optimizations (e.g., RL + CoT) with architectural specialization (e.g., MoE) to better achieve a balance between efficiency and reasoning depth. In MoE models, gating networks decide which experts should process each token, but lack knowledge of the extent to which a downstream expert's reasoning improves the model's factual accuracy and logical coherence. By using RL to fine-tune the gating policy, the model will reward gates that select experts leading to better long-term reasoning outcomes. The gating network would then become a policy rather than an immutable learned function.
This becomes even more interesting when applied to multimodal transformations, e.g., video-to-audio (video input generates audio output), video-to-text, and image-to-video. I'd imagine within the decade, we'll see models that can output entire film scores using MoE as a multimodal router: A vision expert for generating motion, spatial, and gesture features, an audio expert for synchronized sound/voice, a language expert for narrative intent, and a style expert to enforce cinematic tone, pacing, and emotion. The gating network would learn to select the correct expert sequence or combination for each transformation stage. Here, RL would ensure that the final perceptual outcome aligns with both factual and aesthetic goals. That's where the industry is partially heading.
Because each modality in a multidomain system has its own geometry (computer vision embeds spatial-temporal tensors, audio embeds time-frequency spectrograms, text embeds discrete semantic tokens, graphs embed relational topologies, etc.), we can't use common reasoning or routing layers to directly operate on all of them. Embeddings unify these spaces into shared manifolds that enable measurement of similarity, causality, and semantic relationships. Among them, graph embeddings are especially powerful for structuring multimodal reasoning to capture contextual causality, thus enabling a CoT reasoner to query or traverse the embedded graph as a semantic memory. If integrated before gating, the gate would see the relational context (i.e., the gate not only sees "visual feature = lightning" but also "this causes sound event "thunder"). Integration during reasoning would allow CoT steps to traverse edges ("because A->B, we expect C") and integration after generation would facilitate validation of cross-modal consistency.
This is particularly powerful because graph embeddings enable compositional reasoning, giving the model the ability to infer unseen relationships ("A is taller than B and B is taller than C, so A must be taller than C"). Moreover, embeddings act as a shared state between experts enabling different experts to read/write to the same latent "memory". When MoE routing becomes embedding-aware, the gating policy can use distance/centrality/clustering in the embedding's space to select experts. Finally, embeddings provide structural support to CoT, because the reasoning steps traverse embedded graphs (symbolic + neural) rather than linear token sequences.
If we define "reasoning" to mean navigating in embedded space via learned expert operators under an RL-optimized policy, then AGI is already here.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49333034) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:29 PM Author: Coral nudist resort
Progress of LLMs means roughly fuck all right now. These are still effectively tech tool parlor tricks in an enterprise context and any effort to monetize the consumer side beyond what’s already been done will kill growth.
The skeptical case is specific to the lack of actual implementation of real, measurable and successful AI deployments in large enterprises. And while we all may grasp that it’s inevitable on a long enough timeline, there’s still as much uncertainty of where we will be in two years as there was a year ago. Cf. public cloud adoption where 1) the business cycle was perfectly timed, and 2) there were these enthusiastic large scale early adopters who had logical and intuitive reasons to take the leap and prefer it as the premise of how they would operate in the future. We are already at a point where companies who were interested in AI implementations tried some evals and have let their enthusiasts spend 6+ quarters hyping their projects while they’ve dicked around. The hope a year ago and currently is that most of those companies are going to follow those evals up with actual spend of dollars in their BU budgets, but many companies are just trying other evals and not putting up any real money.
The current phase of the hype cycle is there are a bunch of bigcorp middle managers who have spent the last 2-3 years super studying AI and hoping that it was their ticket to an exec title and the career success they have craved for the last 7-10 years (since they realized they missed the boat with cloud and SaaS). When their management decides to pull the plug on any real spend—eg because we have 2-3 straight quarters of stagflation and demand for their products is slowing and they want to tighten belts to support the stock price—there will be a correction. I don’t think it will be a huge crash, thus my 10-15% call, basically putting the market back at the trajectory it had from 2010-2019. But I’d call some kind of correction like that more likely than not between now and the midterms (for obvious reasons).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49332540) |
Date: October 7th, 2025 4:56 PM Author: Disrespectful Menage
The market is definitely either go up bigly or go down
Until a few days ago the sentiment was THIS RALLY IS CRAZSY its gonna crash but then u had a few bigwigs say oh its gonna boom more and now the sentiment seems positive
which prob means its gonna crash but who cares cause jews rule so actually a 10% correction now wld be healthy for QQQ 700
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49332481) |
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Date: October 7th, 2025 5:36 PM Author: Disrespectful Menage
ljl ive had puts MU and SOXL last week or so and each day they still go up
u have to literally time the market perfectly to make money on puts in this market cause shit cld easily just go up 5% more
alt is to keep buying down as u get ass raped and hope it has a down day like today
but just buying a put 3m out? it cld get ass raped if market keeps going way up
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49332554) |
Date: October 7th, 2025 11:02 PM Author: Claret adventurous space wrinkle
A good cure for this kind of thinking is to re-read perma-bear articles from 2010-present. John Hussman is particularly strong in this genre. Market is overvalued, historically high valuations, expected returns are negative, portfolio is fully hedged, I have a PhD and called the last two crashes, blah, blah. For fifteen years. Meanwhile random morons buying index funds with 2 seconds of though made 10-15% year with no lasting downturns. YOLO gamblers and skilled investors did even better. But yes eventually stocks will go down so better panic-sell today!
That said stocks do have risk, so if you’re carrying more risk than you want, yes of course bring it down. Pay off debts, carry some allocation to cash/bonds, whatever. But there are zero smart rich people who made it by flipping between 0% and 100% equities based on general sentiment.
Edit: I forgot to note that everything is always scammy. Tech bubble, Enron, Worldcom, Lehman, NINJA loans, Madoff, crypto, AI. There’s always something to worry about. That’s why you don’t buy one stock and ride it to zero. But good investments make up for all the scams.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5783988&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49333336) |
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