The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| topaz big turdskin | 12/10/15 |
| yellow concupiscible plaza | 12/12/15 |
| topaz big turdskin | 01/02/17 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 01/06/16 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 01/06/16 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 06/05/16 |
| unhinged boltzmann | 03/26/16 |
| nofapping magical national security agency blood rage | 01/02/17 |
| hot library regret | 10/25/18 |
| Garnet buck-toothed state | 12/10/15 |
| curious blathering school cuckoldry | 12/10/15 |
| Pearly laser beams | 12/10/15 |
| fighting boiling water orchestra pit | 12/10/15 |
| crimson kitchen mood | 12/15/15 |
| swashbuckling mahogany organic girlfriend | 12/10/15 |
| racy nursing home ratface | 12/10/15 |
| Stimulating house genital piercing | 12/10/15 |
| lascivious public bath dingle berry | 12/11/15 |
| Flushed Out-of-control Theater Stage | 12/12/15 |
| wonderful ivory dysfunction | 12/16/15 |
| mind-boggling haunted graveyard base | 01/04/16 |
| Sable rehab | 11/09/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 12/11/15 |
| Fragrant Charcoal Lay | 12/11/15 |
| Jet-lagged point | 12/11/15 |
| lascivious public bath dingle berry | 12/11/15 |
| Hairraiser Step-uncle's House Corn Cake | 12/12/15 |
| Mildly Autistic Stage | 01/25/16 |
| arousing bespoke address | 11/10/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 12/12/15 |
| multi-colored partner | 12/12/15 |
| Azure cerebral lodge coffee pot | 12/12/15 |
| obsidian range | 12/12/15 |
| magenta philosopher-king | 12/15/15 |
| Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting | 12/21/15 |
| overrated impressive site potus | 12/12/15 |
| chestnut parlor psychic | 12/12/15 |
| sickened market puppy | 12/12/15 |
| burgundy personal credit line | 12/12/15 |
| mentally impaired bawdyhouse messiness | 12/12/15 |
| bull headed vigorous place of business menage | 12/12/15 |
| racy nursing home ratface | 12/15/15 |
| racy nursing home ratface | 12/16/15 |
| Chest-beating bateful den | 12/15/15 |
| umber stead | 12/15/15 |
| Metal Background Story Station | 12/15/15 |
| light private investor mediation | 12/15/15 |
| seedy contagious principal's office double fault | 12/15/15 |
| Useless amethyst nibblets | 12/15/15 |
| topaz big turdskin | 12/15/15 |
| topaz big turdskin | 12/15/15 |
| topaz big turdskin | 12/15/15 |
| topaz big turdskin | 12/15/15 |
| topaz big turdskin | 12/15/15 |
| fantasy-prone exhilarant patrolman stage | 01/05/16 |
| Mildly Autistic Stage | 01/25/16 |
| French sweet tailpipe | 12/17/16 |
| glassy beta locale | 05/18/16 |
| cyan center | 08/12/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| poppy ticket booth | 11/09/16 |
| talented temple legend | 11/09/16 |
| Bronze tank | 10/22/20 |
| twinkling death wish | 12/15/15 |
| Trip lilac office | 12/16/15 |
| Blue meetinghouse dopamine | 12/16/15 |
| pungent forum pisswyrm | 12/16/15 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 12/16/15 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 12/17/15 |
| opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency | 12/18/15 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 01/06/16 |
| 180 Theater Kitty | 12/18/15 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 12/21/15 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 12/21/15 |
| Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting | 12/21/15 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 12/30/15 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 12/30/15 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 01/04/16 |
| mind-boggling haunted graveyard base | 01/04/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 01/05/16 |
| Mildly Autistic Stage | 01/25/16 |
| opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency | 01/05/16 |
| Provocative Flirting Institution | 01/05/16 |
| Excitant sick trailer park chad | 01/05/16 |
| Federal telephone | 01/05/16 |
| Fear-inspiring pearl native | 01/05/16 |
| Federal telephone | 01/05/16 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 01/06/16 |
| Federal telephone | 01/06/16 |
| Fear-inspiring pearl native | 01/05/16 |
| cyan center | 01/06/16 |
| Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting | 01/07/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 01/08/16 |
| bearded hospital | 01/08/16 |
| Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting | 01/08/16 |
| opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency | 01/09/16 |
| Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting | 01/10/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 01/18/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 01/19/16 |
| opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency | 01/21/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 01/25/16 |
| Sticky Gaping | 01/25/16 |
| Mildly Autistic Stage | 01/25/16 |
| Sticky Gaping | 02/09/16 |
| bearded hospital | 09/06/16 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 11/05/18 |
| Maize persian | 01/29/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 02/01/16 |
| Flickering Learning Disabled Jew | 02/01/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 02/01/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 02/07/16 |
| Provocative Flirting Institution | 02/09/16 |
| Orchid slap-happy church building multi-billionaire | 02/09/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 02/20/16 |
| disgusting brass codepig | 02/20/16 |
| glassy beta locale | 02/24/16 |
| supple newt field | 02/24/16 |
| Thriller Smoky Pervert Digit Ratio | 02/27/16 |
| Chest-beating bateful den | 03/09/16 |
| Lavender floppy parlour fanboi | 03/15/16 |
| Pearly laser beams | 03/15/16 |
| umber stead | 03/16/16 |
| mauve gunner cruise ship | 02/24/16 |
| Galvanic house-broken volcanic crater scourge upon the earth | 02/24/16 |
| umber stead | 07/21/16 |
| Cracking water buffalo | 02/24/16 |
| Pearly laser beams | 02/27/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/02/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/04/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/09/16 |
| Provocative Flirting Institution | 03/09/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/15/16 |
| glassy beta locale | 03/15/16 |
| massive mad-dog skullcap stag film | 03/15/16 |
| Cocky Lettuce Crackhouse | 03/15/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/16/16 |
| racy nursing home ratface | 03/16/16 |
| poppy ticket booth | 03/23/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/23/16 |
| sickened market puppy | 03/26/16 |
| Pontificating indian lodge becky | 03/26/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/26/16 |
| fantasy-prone exhilarant patrolman stage | 03/28/16 |
| poppy ticket booth | 03/28/16 |
| curious blathering school cuckoldry | 03/28/16 |
| cyan center | 08/12/16 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 11/05/18 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/28/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/29/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 03/29/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 03/29/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/29/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/29/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 04/01/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 04/04/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 04/15/16 |
| Passionate bipolar mother box office | 04/15/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 04/19/16 |
| vivacious alpha | 04/20/16 |
| Saffron Internal Respiration Ladyboy | 04/20/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 04/24/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 04/25/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 04/26/16 |
| Odious plum piazza pocket flask | 04/26/16 |
| high-end buff macaca hall | 04/30/16 |
| Big-titted Confused Theatre Juggernaut | 05/01/16 |
| Big-titted Confused Theatre Juggernaut | 11/07/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/02/16 |
| poppy ticket booth | 05/02/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/03/16 |
| Pink exciting sex offender | 05/03/16 |
| violent titillating goal in life corner | 05/03/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/04/16 |
| bearded hospital | 05/04/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/05/16 |
| burgundy personal credit line | 05/05/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 05/05/16 |
| Galvanic house-broken volcanic crater scourge upon the earth | 05/05/16 |
| multi-colored partner | 05/18/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/18/16 |
| glassy beta locale | 05/18/16 |
| multi-colored partner | 05/18/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 05/29/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 06/20/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 06/29/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 07/14/16 |
| marvelous old irish cottage property | 07/15/16 |
| cyan center | 07/15/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 07/17/16 |
| bearded hospital | 07/17/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 07/21/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 07/22/16 |
| aquamarine home circlehead | 07/22/16 |
| razzmatazz hideous goyim | 07/23/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 07/24/16 |
| duck-like spectacular kitty cat | 07/25/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 07/25/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 07/27/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 08/05/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 08/09/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 08/12/16 |
| bearded hospital | 08/12/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 08/12/16 |
| Nighttime adventurous pit | 08/12/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 08/30/16 |
| bearded hospital | 08/30/16 |
| bearded hospital | 09/06/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 09/13/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 09/14/16 |
| overrated impressive site potus | 09/14/16 |
| Avocado gaped french chef | 09/15/16 |
| Wild Nubile Brunch Coldplay Fan | 09/15/16 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 09/15/16 |
| lake resort | 09/15/16 |
| Hyperactive dashing abode | 09/15/16 |
| scarlet school cafeteria | 09/19/16 |
| scarlet school cafeteria | 09/19/16 |
| bearded hospital | 09/27/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 09/24/16 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 09/27/16 |
| bearded hospital | 09/27/16 |
| racy nursing home ratface | 09/27/16 |
| Vibrant university | 10/08/16 |
| electric senate yarmulke | 07/29/24 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 09/28/16 |
| overrated impressive site potus | 09/28/16 |
| bearded hospital | 09/28/16 |
| Saffron Internal Respiration Ladyboy | 09/28/16 |
| Passionate bipolar mother box office | 09/28/16 |
| Heady gold area mexican | 10/08/16 |
| bearded hospital | 10/09/16 |
| iridescent sneaky criminal | 10/09/16 |
| bearded hospital | 10/09/16 |
| appetizing disrespectful space | 10/09/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 10/10/16 |
| duck-like spectacular kitty cat | 10/30/16 |
| cyan center | 11/01/16 |
| lake resort | 11/01/16 |
| Laughsome aqua gay wizard garrison | 11/02/16 |
| light private investor mediation | 11/02/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 11/07/16 |
| Onyx community account | 11/08/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 11/08/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/08/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 11/08/16 |
| Fishy depressive | 11/08/16 |
| primrose tanning salon | 11/08/16 |
| Flickering Learning Disabled Jew | 11/08/16 |
| scarlet school cafeteria | 11/08/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/08/16 |
| Claret sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| Avocado gaped french chef | 11/09/16 |
| charismatic arrogant church people who are hurt | 11/09/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| lake resort | 11/09/16 |
| Claret sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| duck-like spectacular kitty cat | 11/09/16 |
| burgundy personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| zombie-like heaven really tough guy | 12/03/16 |
| arousing bespoke address | 12/07/16 |
| French sweet tailpipe | 12/17/16 |
| Stirring Associate Wrinkle | 10/11/24 |
| Pale flatulent national nowag | 11/09/16 |
| Awkward hunting ground | 11/09/16 |
| glittery hairy legs | 11/09/16 |
| Histrionic hell | 11/09/16 |
| zombie-like heaven really tough guy | 11/09/16 |
| cyan center | 11/09/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| multi-colored partner | 11/09/16 |
| bearded hospital | 11/09/16 |
| Boyish adulterous dilemma toilet seat | 11/09/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| Underhanded Carmine Gas Station | 11/09/16 |
| irradiated godawful set preventive strike | 11/09/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| fighting boiling water orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| 180 Theater Kitty | 11/10/16 |
| Sticky Gaping | 11/10/16 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 11/10/16 |
| costumed friendly grandma whorehouse | 11/10/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/10/16 |
| Soul-stirring shrine dragon | 11/10/16 |
| disgusting brass codepig | 11/10/16 |
| scarlet school cafeteria | 11/14/16 |
| turquoise casino | 11/14/16 |
| Maniacal Nudist Spot Deer Antler | 12/04/16 |
| French sweet tailpipe | 12/17/16 |
| Stirring Associate Wrinkle | 10/11/24 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/25/16 |
| sinister chapel | 12/03/16 |
| appetizing disrespectful space | 12/04/16 |
| aromatic business firm | 12/07/16 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 12/07/16 |
| sinister chapel | 12/07/16 |
| topaz big turdskin | 01/02/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/02/17 |
| topaz big turdskin | 01/02/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/02/17 |
| topaz big turdskin | 03/03/20 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 01/02/17 |
| poppy ticket booth | 01/16/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/20/17 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 01/20/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/23/17 |
| Heady gold area mexican | 01/23/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/23/17 |
| Frozen Red Location | 01/23/17 |
| Heady gold area mexican | 01/23/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/23/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/25/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 01/26/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 02/06/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 02/13/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 02/27/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 05/03/17 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/03/17 |
| Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus | 09/21/17 |
| Pearly laser beams | 01/23/17 |
| lake resort | 02/27/17 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 03/22/17 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 04/17/17 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/08/17 |
| topaz big turdskin | 06/20/17 |
| topaz big turdskin | 08/10/17 |
| topaz big turdskin | 10/15/17 |
| poppy ticket booth | 10/15/17 |
| jade tripping mental disorder rigpig | 10/15/17 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/06/17 |
| ruddy | 11/06/17 |
| orange foreskin | 11/08/17 |
| Motley coiffed love of her life | 11/08/17 |
| Chocolate twisted indirect expression gaming laptop | 11/13/17 |
| poppy ticket booth | 12/18/17 |
| bearded hospital | 12/18/17 |
| poppy ticket booth | 12/18/17 |
| topaz big turdskin | 01/30/18 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 06/01/18 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 07/18/18 |
| poppy ticket booth | 07/19/18 |
| Hyperactive dashing abode | 09/20/18 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 09/25/18 |
| curious blathering school cuckoldry | 10/06/18 |
| topaz big turdskin | 10/06/18 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 10/25/18 |
| Wild Nubile Brunch Coldplay Fan | 10/25/18 |
| Mildly Autistic Stage | 11/05/18 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 11/05/18 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 11/05/18 |
| Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button | 11/05/18 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 01/08/19 |
| Henna masturbator | 02/23/19 |
| topaz big turdskin | 03/13/19 |
| Mildly Autistic Stage | 06/24/19 |
| zippy diverse | 06/24/19 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 11/18/19 |
| lake resort | 02/12/20 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 02/12/20 |
| topaz big turdskin | 03/24/20 |
| Swollen Hateful Brethren | 03/24/20 |
| marvelous old irish cottage property | 04/04/20 |
| topaz big turdskin | 04/26/20 |
| topaz big turdskin | 05/13/20 |
| marvelous old irish cottage property | 06/05/20 |
| Rebellious Puce Clown | 06/05/20 |
| marvelous old irish cottage property | 09/09/20 |
| lake resort | 09/09/20 |
| Garnet buck-toothed state | 09/09/20 |
| peach bat shit crazy idea he suggested | 09/12/20 |
| lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook | 09/24/20 |
| zippy diverse | 10/09/20 |
| poppy ticket booth | 10/10/20 |
| Razzle-dazzle violet antidepressant drug | 10/22/20 |
| zombie-like heaven really tough guy | 10/22/20 |
| Bronze tank | 10/22/20 |
| Bronze tank | 10/22/20 |
| Razzle drab stain | 03/23/22 |
| topaz big turdskin | 10/27/20 |
| Pea-brained tan knife | 10/27/20 |
| zippy diverse | 10/30/20 |
| poppy ticket booth | 11/03/20 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/22/22 |
| Territorial vermilion reading party | 03/23/22 |
| yapping halford police squad | 03/23/22 |
| sooty voyeur | 03/23/22 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 07/25/22 |
| Garnet buck-toothed state | 07/25/22 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 10/23/22 |
| topaz big turdskin | 11/16/22 |
| topaz big turdskin | 04/25/23 |
| multi-colored partner | 04/25/23 |
| lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook | 04/29/23 |
| electric senate yarmulke | 05/28/23 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 02/22/24 |
| lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook | 02/23/24 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 05/23/24 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 08/26/24 |
| lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook | 09/13/24 |
| Garnet buck-toothed state | 09/13/24 |
| lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook | 10/18/24 |
| Stirring Associate Wrinkle | 10/11/24 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 11/06/24 |
| burgundy personal credit line | 03/04/25 |
| burgundy personal credit line | 03/04/25 |
| Hyperactive dashing abode | 03/04/25 |
| Stirring Associate Wrinkle | 03/04/25 |
| Deep Therapy | 03/04/25 |
| rusted half-breed | 03/05/25 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/07/25 |
| unholy sandwich | 03/07/25 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/08/25 |
| Up-to-no-good fat ankles | 03/08/25 |
| cordovan main people round eye | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: topaz big turdskin December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: yellow concupiscible plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Pea-brained tan knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: unhinged boltzmann 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: nofapping magical national security agency blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: hot library regret "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Garnet buck-toothed state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: curious blathering school cuckoldry 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Pearly laser beams 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: fighting boiling water orchestra pit Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: crimson kitchen mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: swashbuckling mahogany organic girlfriend FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: racy nursing home ratface Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Stimulating house genital piercing Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: lascivious public bath dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Flushed Out-of-control Theater Stage Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: wonderful ivory dysfunction Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: mind-boggling haunted graveyard base Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Sable rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Fragrant Charcoal Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Jet-lagged point 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: lascivious public bath dingle berry November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Hairraiser Step-uncle's House Corn Cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Mildly Autistic Stage Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: arousing bespoke address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: multi-colored partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Azure cerebral lodge coffee pot lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: obsidian range March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: magenta philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: overrated impressive site potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: chestnut parlor psychic lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: sickened market puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: burgundy personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: mentally impaired bawdyhouse messiness Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: bull headed vigorous place of business menage Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: racy nursing home ratface OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: racy nursing home ratface And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Chest-beating bateful den 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: umber stead fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Metal Background Story Station I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: light private investor mediation 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: seedy contagious principal's office double fault February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Useless amethyst nibblets You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: topaz big turdskin Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: topaz big turdskin http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: topaz big turdskin http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: topaz big turdskin http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: topaz big turdskin http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: fantasy-prone exhilarant patrolman stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Mildly Autistic Stage Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: French sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: glassy beta locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: cyan center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: topaz big turdskin http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: talented temple legend Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Bronze tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: twinkling death wish This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Trip lilac office 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Blue meetinghouse dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: pungent forum pisswyrm Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Pea-brained tan knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: 180 Theater Kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: mind-boggling haunted graveyard base flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: topaz big turdskin ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Mildly Autistic Stage Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Provocative Flirting Institution 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Excitant sick trailer park chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Federal telephone An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Fear-inspiring pearl native 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Federal telephone I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Pea-brained tan knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Federal telephone Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Fear-inspiring pearl native No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: cyan center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: bearded hospital 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Milky thirsty hominid famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: opaque windowlicker international law enforcement agency looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30151965) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Pea-brained tan knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Big-titted Confused Theatre Juggernaut Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Big-titted Confused Theatre Juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31825048) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: burgundy personal credit line Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: topaz big turdskin LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Galvanic house-broken volcanic crater scourge upon the earth Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: multi-colored partner This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: glassy beta locale In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: multi-colored partner cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: topaz big turdskin lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: marvelous old irish cottage property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: cyan center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: bearded hospital 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: aquamarine home circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: razzmatazz hideous goyim Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: duck-like spectacular kitty cat Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: topaz big turdskin Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: topaz big turdskin THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: bearded hospital holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: topaz big turdskin I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Nighttime adventurous pit LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: topaz big turdskin THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: bearded hospital 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: bearded hospital lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: overrated impressive site potus Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Avocado gaped french chef September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Wild Nubile Brunch Coldplay Fan September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: lake resort XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Hyperactive dashing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: scarlet school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: scarlet school cafeteria The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bearded hospital let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: bearded hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: racy nursing home ratface This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Vibrant university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: electric senate yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: overrated impressive site potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: bearded hospital 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Saffron Internal Respiration Ladyboy This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Passionate bipolar mother box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Heady gold area mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: bearded hospital hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: iridescent sneaky criminal Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: bearded hospital doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: appetizing disrespectful space half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: duck-like spectacular kitty cat close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: cyan center Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: lake resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Laughsome aqua gay wizard garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: light private investor mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Onyx community account You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: topaz big turdskin ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Fishy depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: primrose tanning salon Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Flickering Learning Disabled Jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: scarlet school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Claret sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Avocado gaped french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: charismatic arrogant church people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: lake resort GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Claret sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: duck-like spectacular kitty cat it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: burgundy personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: zombie-like heaven really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: arousing bespoke address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: French sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Stirring Associate Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Pale flatulent national nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Awkward hunting ground Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: glittery hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Histrionic hell 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: zombie-like heaven really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: cyan center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: multi-colored partner this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: bearded hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Boyish adulterous dilemma toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Underhanded Carmine Gas Station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: irradiated godawful set preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: topaz big turdskin November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: fighting boiling water orchestra pit you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: 180 Theater Kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Sticky Gaping Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: costumed friendly grandma whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: topaz big turdskin sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Soul-stirring shrine dragon ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: disgusting brass codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: scarlet school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: turquoise casino They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Maniacal Nudist Spot Deer Antler Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: French sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Stirring Associate Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: sinister chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: appetizing disrespectful space GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: aromatic business firm https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: sinister chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: topaz big turdskin ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Heady gold area mexican TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Frozen Red Location I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Heady gold area mexican it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Beady-eyed mint pozpig locus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Pearly laser beams this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: lake resort One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Pea-brained tan knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: topaz big turdskin What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: topaz big turdskin https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: jade tripping mental disorder rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: ruddy credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: orange foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Motley coiffed love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Chocolate twisted indirect expression gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: bearded hospital Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Hyperactive dashing abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: curious blathering school cuckoldry It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: topaz big turdskin lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Wild Nubile Brunch Coldplay Fan Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Mildly Autistic Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Pea-brained tan knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Comical Trust Fund Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Henna masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: topaz big turdskin Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Mildly Autistic Stage There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: zippy diverse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: lake resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Swollen Hateful Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: marvelous old irish cottage property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: topaz big turdskin https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: marvelous old irish cottage property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Rebellious Puce Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: marvelous old irish cottage property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: lake resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Garnet buck-toothed state Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: peach bat shit crazy idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: zippy diverse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle violet antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: zombie-like heaven really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Bronze tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Bronze tank https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Razzle drab stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: topaz big turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Pea-brained tan knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: zippy diverse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: poppy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Territorial vermilion reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: yapping halford police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: sooty voyeur 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Garnet buck-toothed state A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: topaz big turdskin Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: topaz big turdskin https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: multi-colored partner why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: electric senate yarmulke FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Garnet buck-toothed state One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: lemon aphrodisiac travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Stirring Associate Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: burgundy personal credit line 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: burgundy personal credit line https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Hyperactive dashing abode Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Stirring Associate Wrinkle The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Deep Therapy He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: rusted half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: unholy sandwich 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: cordovan main people round eye "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Up-to-no-good fat ankles Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: cordovan main people round eye Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026hid=#49679495) |