The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| histrionic point | 12/10/15 |
| Translucent Volcanic Crater | 12/12/15 |
| histrionic point | 01/02/17 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 01/06/16 |
| cheese-eating property | 01/06/16 |
| cheese-eating property | 06/05/16 |
| Crusty big telephone | 03/26/16 |
| opaque contagious station foreskin | 01/02/17 |
| brilliant motley immigrant hospital | 10/25/18 |
| galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask | 12/10/15 |
| Multi-colored Jew Theatre | 12/10/15 |
| vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster | 12/10/15 |
| Hairraiser stubborn international law enforcement agency | 12/10/15 |
| elite jet theater stage | 12/15/15 |
| federal wrinkle | 12/10/15 |
| Canary jap | 12/10/15 |
| Navy Kink-friendly Library Sweet Tailpipe | 12/10/15 |
| chocolate bearded sex offender | 12/11/15 |
| Bossy cruise ship | 12/12/15 |
| Purple home | 12/16/15 |
| dashing buck-toothed elastic band | 01/04/16 |
| fantasy-prone stage azn | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic point | 12/11/15 |
| Lemon business firm | 12/11/15 |
| Mentally Impaired Bateful Heaven Mexican | 12/11/15 |
| chocolate bearded sex offender | 12/11/15 |
| unholy chapel scourge upon the earth | 12/12/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle Gas Station | 01/25/16 |
| Blue zippy skinny woman menage | 11/10/16 |
| histrionic point | 12/12/15 |
| Maize lay | 12/12/15 |
| Puce vivacious ratface | 12/12/15 |
| white parlour | 12/12/15 |
| Frum church building windowlicker | 12/15/15 |
| plum out-of-control incel | 12/21/15 |
| aquamarine glittery nibblets dingle berry | 12/12/15 |
| Drunken filthpig | 12/12/15 |
| pink national security agency locus | 12/12/15 |
| Sinister startled rigor nursing home | 12/12/15 |
| curious corner son of senegal | 12/12/15 |
| Ebony abode | 12/12/15 |
| Canary jap | 12/15/15 |
| Canary jap | 12/16/15 |
| Brindle address keepsake machete | 12/15/15 |
| Ruby locale candlestick maker | 12/15/15 |
| Hyperactive Abusive Stage Fat Ankles | 12/15/15 |
| exhilarant area gaping | 12/15/15 |
| hateful mind-boggling tanning salon | 12/15/15 |
| Ocher exciting ladyboy | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic point | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic point | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic point | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic point | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic point | 12/15/15 |
| rambunctious amethyst love of her life | 01/05/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Gas Station | 01/25/16 |
| Dull charismatic goyim | 12/17/16 |
| Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse | 05/18/16 |
| titillating sepia national private investor | 08/12/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/09/16 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 11/09/16 |
| Learning disabled beady-eyed resort | 11/09/16 |
| laughsome awkward alpha den | 10/22/20 |
| pearly mewling party of the first part boltzmann | 12/15/15 |
| Crystalline jewess | 12/16/15 |
| cerebral godawful main people | 12/16/15 |
| tantric vibrant idea he suggested turdskin | 12/16/15 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 12/16/15 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 12/17/15 |
| Amber abnormal boiling water | 12/18/15 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 01/06/16 |
| Beta hunting ground | 12/18/15 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 12/21/15 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 12/21/15 |
| plum out-of-control incel | 12/21/15 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 12/30/15 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 12/30/15 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 01/04/16 |
| dashing buck-toothed elastic band | 01/04/16 |
| histrionic point | 01/05/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Gas Station | 01/25/16 |
| Amber abnormal boiling water | 01/05/16 |
| Concupiscible Pearl Multi-billionaire Senate | 01/05/16 |
| diverse spruce market partner | 01/05/16 |
| Misanthropic sienna ticket booth | 01/05/16 |
| talented thirsty place of business hell | 01/05/16 |
| Misanthropic sienna ticket booth | 01/05/16 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 01/06/16 |
| Misanthropic sienna ticket booth | 01/06/16 |
| talented thirsty place of business hell | 01/05/16 |
| titillating sepia national private investor | 01/06/16 |
| plum out-of-control incel | 01/07/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 01/08/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 01/08/16 |
| plum out-of-control incel | 01/08/16 |
| Amber abnormal boiling water | 01/09/16 |
| plum out-of-control incel | 01/10/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 01/18/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 01/19/16 |
| Amber abnormal boiling water | 01/21/16 |
| histrionic point | 01/25/16 |
| Ruddy stead codepig | 01/25/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Gas Station | 01/25/16 |
| Ruddy stead codepig | 02/09/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 09/06/16 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 11/05/18 |
| henna medicated school | 01/29/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 02/01/16 |
| Trip Cruel-hearted Native Electric Furnace | 02/01/16 |
| histrionic point | 02/01/16 |
| histrionic point | 02/07/16 |
| Concupiscible Pearl Multi-billionaire Senate | 02/09/16 |
| Bespoke Athletic Conference Location | 02/09/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 02/20/16 |
| High-end excitant set | 02/20/16 |
| Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse | 02/24/16 |
| appetizing domesticated boistinker | 02/24/16 |
| supple school cafeteria | 02/27/16 |
| Brindle address keepsake machete | 03/09/16 |
| Aromatic philosopher-king principal's office | 03/15/16 |
| vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster | 03/15/16 |
| Ruby locale candlestick maker | 03/16/16 |
| spectacular headpube | 02/24/16 |
| cobalt bipolar laser beams | 02/24/16 |
| Ruby locale candlestick maker | 07/21/16 |
| pale comical parlor masturbator | 02/24/16 |
| vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster | 02/27/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/02/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/04/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/09/16 |
| Concupiscible Pearl Multi-billionaire Senate | 03/09/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/15/16 |
| Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse | 03/15/16 |
| Stimulating temple messiness | 03/15/16 |
| Frisky Arousing Hominid | 03/15/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/16/16 |
| Canary jap | 03/16/16 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 03/23/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/23/16 |
| pink national security agency locus | 03/26/16 |
| Nofapping marvelous rehab personal credit line | 03/26/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/26/16 |
| rambunctious amethyst love of her life | 03/28/16 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 03/28/16 |
| Multi-colored Jew Theatre | 03/28/16 |
| titillating sepia national private investor | 08/12/16 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 11/05/18 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/28/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/29/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 03/29/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 03/29/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/29/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/29/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 04/01/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 04/04/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 04/15/16 |
| emerald outnumbered church halford | 04/15/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 04/19/16 |
| salmon stirring house | 04/20/16 |
| shaky forum | 04/20/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 04/24/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 04/25/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 04/26/16 |
| Charcoal irradiated milk field | 04/26/16 |
| carnelian vengeful range | 04/30/16 |
| racy flushed trust fund box office | 05/01/16 |
| racy flushed trust fund box office | 11/07/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/02/16 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 05/02/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/03/16 |
| cream adventurous coldplay fan state | 05/03/16 |
| Dark erotic shrine community account | 05/03/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/04/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 05/04/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/05/16 |
| Sinister startled rigor nursing home | 05/05/16 |
| histrionic point | 05/05/16 |
| cobalt bipolar laser beams | 05/05/16 |
| Maize lay | 05/18/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/18/16 |
| Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse | 05/18/16 |
| Maize lay | 05/18/16 |
| histrionic point | 05/29/16 |
| histrionic point | 06/20/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 06/29/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 07/14/16 |
| cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction | 07/15/16 |
| titillating sepia national private investor | 07/15/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 07/17/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 07/17/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 07/21/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 07/22/16 |
| aphrodisiac people who are hurt | 07/22/16 |
| Jet-lagged Fragrant Brunch Deer Antler | 07/23/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 07/24/16 |
| Flickering swashbuckling university | 07/25/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 07/25/16 |
| histrionic point | 07/27/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 08/05/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 08/09/16 |
| histrionic point | 08/12/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 08/12/16 |
| histrionic point | 08/12/16 |
| Infuriating Dead Goal In Life | 08/12/16 |
| histrionic point | 08/30/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 08/30/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 09/06/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 09/13/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 09/14/16 |
| aquamarine glittery nibblets dingle berry | 09/14/16 |
| Khaki lascivious bawdyhouse queen of the night | 09/15/16 |
| Floppy Black Dilemma | 09/15/16 |
| cheese-eating property | 09/15/16 |
| nubile tripping double fault | 09/15/16 |
| Wine wonderful mother | 09/15/16 |
| 180 turquoise selfie | 09/19/16 |
| 180 turquoise selfie | 09/19/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 09/27/16 |
| histrionic point | 09/24/16 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 09/27/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 09/27/16 |
| Canary jap | 09/27/16 |
| Olive office | 10/08/16 |
| Electric puppy genital piercing | 07/29/24 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 09/28/16 |
| aquamarine glittery nibblets dingle berry | 09/28/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 09/28/16 |
| shaky forum | 09/28/16 |
| emerald outnumbered church halford | 09/28/16 |
| Soul-stirring alcoholic trailer park regret | 10/08/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 10/09/16 |
| swollen quadroon casino | 10/09/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 10/09/16 |
| Autistic Cocky Indirect Expression | 10/09/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 10/10/16 |
| Flickering swashbuckling university | 10/30/16 |
| titillating sepia national private investor | 11/01/16 |
| nubile tripping double fault | 11/01/16 |
| Sable sick roast beef | 11/02/16 |
| exhilarant area gaping | 11/02/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 11/07/16 |
| slippery cyan base | 11/08/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 11/08/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/08/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 11/08/16 |
| gay heady hall | 11/08/16 |
| Hairless Gay Wizard | 11/08/16 |
| Trip Cruel-hearted Native Electric Furnace | 11/08/16 |
| 180 turquoise selfie | 11/08/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/08/16 |
| Sticky razzmatazz mediation | 11/09/16 |
| Khaki lascivious bawdyhouse queen of the night | 11/09/16 |
| razzle institution | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/09/16 |
| nubile tripping double fault | 11/09/16 |
| Sticky razzmatazz mediation | 11/09/16 |
| Flickering swashbuckling university | 11/09/16 |
| Sinister startled rigor nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| light pea-brained marketing idea spot | 12/03/16 |
| Blue zippy skinny woman menage | 12/07/16 |
| Dull charismatic goyim | 12/17/16 |
| Jade organic girlfriend | 10/11/24 |
| provocative cuckoldry idiot | 11/09/16 |
| odious rigpig pit | 11/09/16 |
| Crimson lodge | 11/09/16 |
| bat shit crazy brass gunner shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| light pea-brained marketing idea spot | 11/09/16 |
| titillating sepia national private investor | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/09/16 |
| Maize lay | 11/09/16 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 11/09/16 |
| Boyish Corn Cake Piazza | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/09/16 |
| useless impertinent center | 11/09/16 |
| ultramarine plaza | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/09/16 |
| Hairraiser stubborn international law enforcement agency | 11/09/16 |
| Beta hunting ground | 11/10/16 |
| Ruddy stead codepig | 11/10/16 |
| cheese-eating property | 11/10/16 |
| Indecent sooty faggotry whorehouse | 11/10/16 |
| histrionic point | 11/10/16 |
| Passionate fiercely-loyal space | 11/10/16 |
| High-end excitant set | 11/10/16 |
| 180 turquoise selfie | 11/14/16 |
| slimy glassy indian lodge | 11/14/16 |
| Balding french chef | 12/04/16 |
| Dull charismatic goyim | 12/17/16 |
| Jade organic girlfriend | 10/11/24 |
| histrionic point | 11/25/16 |
| Alcoholic stag film | 12/03/16 |
| Autistic Cocky Indirect Expression | 12/04/16 |
| idiotic buff police squad depressive | 12/07/16 |
| cheese-eating property | 12/07/16 |
| Alcoholic stag film | 12/07/16 |
| histrionic point | 01/02/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/02/17 |
| histrionic point | 01/02/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/02/17 |
| histrionic point | 03/03/20 |
| cheese-eating property | 01/02/17 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 01/16/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/20/17 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 01/20/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/23/17 |
| Soul-stirring alcoholic trailer park regret | 01/23/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/23/17 |
| lilac fortuitous meteor | 01/23/17 |
| Soul-stirring alcoholic trailer park regret | 01/23/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/23/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/25/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 01/26/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 02/06/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 02/13/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 02/27/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 05/03/17 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/03/17 |
| big-titted public bath pervert | 09/21/17 |
| vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster | 01/23/17 |
| nubile tripping double fault | 02/27/17 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 03/22/17 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 04/17/17 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/08/17 |
| histrionic point | 06/20/17 |
| histrionic point | 08/10/17 |
| histrionic point | 10/15/17 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 10/15/17 |
| Snowy juggernaut new version | 10/15/17 |
| histrionic point | 11/06/17 |
| Umber site | 11/06/17 |
| Impressive Black Woman | 11/08/17 |
| bright self-centered hairy legs water buffalo | 11/08/17 |
| violent cordovan garrison degenerate | 11/13/17 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 12/18/17 |
| rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater | 12/18/17 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 12/18/17 |
| histrionic point | 01/30/18 |
| cheese-eating property | 06/01/18 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 07/18/18 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 07/19/18 |
| Wine wonderful mother | 09/20/18 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 09/25/18 |
| Multi-colored Jew Theatre | 10/06/18 |
| histrionic point | 10/06/18 |
| cheese-eating property | 10/25/18 |
| Floppy Black Dilemma | 10/25/18 |
| Razzle-dazzle Gas Station | 11/05/18 |
| cheese-eating property | 11/05/18 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 11/05/18 |
| cheese-eating property | 11/05/18 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 01/08/19 |
| magical mad-dog skullcap legal warrant | 02/23/19 |
| histrionic point | 03/13/19 |
| Razzle-dazzle Gas Station | 06/24/19 |
| Primrose | 06/24/19 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 11/18/19 |
| nubile tripping double fault | 02/12/20 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 02/12/20 |
| histrionic point | 03/24/20 |
| deranged striped hyena | 03/24/20 |
| cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction | 04/04/20 |
| histrionic point | 04/26/20 |
| histrionic point | 05/13/20 |
| cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction | 06/05/20 |
| Bistre ape | 06/05/20 |
| cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction | 09/09/20 |
| nubile tripping double fault | 09/09/20 |
| galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask | 09/09/20 |
| free-loading toilet seat | 09/12/20 |
| twisted antidepressant drug | 09/24/20 |
| Primrose | 10/09/20 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 10/10/20 |
| 10/22/20 |
| light pea-brained marketing idea spot | 10/22/20 |
| laughsome awkward alpha den | 10/22/20 |
| laughsome awkward alpha den | 10/22/20 |
| Magenta | 03/23/22 |
| histrionic point | 10/27/20 |
| Silver Therapy Sanctuary | 10/27/20 |
| Primrose | 10/30/20 |
| gold preventive strike crackhouse | 11/03/20 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/22/22 |
| yapping twinkling | 03/23/22 |
| Vermilion Mood | 03/23/22 |
| Carmine affirmative action | 03/23/22 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 07/25/22 |
| galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask | 07/25/22 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 10/23/22 |
| histrionic point | 11/16/22 |
| histrionic point | 04/25/23 |
| Maize lay | 04/25/23 |
| twisted antidepressant drug | 04/29/23 |
| Electric puppy genital piercing | 05/28/23 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 02/22/24 |
| twisted antidepressant drug | 02/23/24 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 05/23/24 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 08/26/24 |
| twisted antidepressant drug | 09/13/24 |
| galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask | 09/13/24 |
| twisted antidepressant drug | 10/18/24 |
| Jade organic girlfriend | 10/11/24 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 11/06/24 |
| Sinister startled rigor nursing home | 03/04/25 |
| Sinister startled rigor nursing home | 03/04/25 |
| Wine wonderful mother | 03/04/25 |
| Jade organic girlfriend | 03/04/25 |
| ceo | 03/04/25 |
| liquid oxygen | 03/05/25 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/07/25 |
| Deep Sandwich | 03/07/25 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/08/25 |
| Orchid internal respiration | 03/08/25 |
| Thriller orchestra pit | 03/08/25 |
| vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: histrionic point December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Translucent Volcanic Crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Silver Therapy Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: cheese-eating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: cheese-eating property another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Crusty big telephone 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: opaque contagious station foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: brilliant motley immigrant hospital "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Multi-colored Jew Theatre 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Hairraiser stubborn international law enforcement agency Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: elite jet theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: federal wrinkle FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Canary jap Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Navy Kink-friendly Library Sweet Tailpipe Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: chocolate bearded sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Bossy cruise ship Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Purple home Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: dashing buck-toothed elastic band Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: fantasy-prone stage azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Lemon business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Mentally Impaired Bateful Heaven Mexican 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: chocolate bearded sex offender November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: unholy chapel scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Gas Station Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Blue zippy skinny woman menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Maize lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Puce vivacious ratface lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: white parlour March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Frum church building windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: plum out-of-control incel 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: aquamarine glittery nibblets dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Drunken filthpig lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: pink national security agency locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Sinister startled rigor nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: curious corner son of senegal Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Ebony abode Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Canary jap OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Canary jap And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Brindle address keepsake machete 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Ruby locale candlestick maker fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Hyperactive Abusive Stage Fat Ankles I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: exhilarant area gaping 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: hateful mind-boggling tanning salon February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Ocher exciting ladyboy You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: histrionic point Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: histrionic point http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: histrionic point http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: histrionic point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: histrionic point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: rambunctious amethyst love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Gas Station Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Dull charismatic goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: titillating sepia national private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: histrionic point http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Learning disabled beady-eyed resort Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: laughsome awkward alpha den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: pearly mewling party of the first part boltzmann This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Crystalline jewess 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: cerebral godawful main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: tantric vibrant idea he suggested turdskin Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Amber abnormal boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Silver Therapy Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Beta hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: plum out-of-control incel 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: dashing buck-toothed elastic band flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: histrionic point ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Gas Station Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Amber abnormal boiling water From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Concupiscible Pearl Multi-billionaire Senate 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: diverse spruce market partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Misanthropic sienna ticket booth An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: talented thirsty place of business hell 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Misanthropic sienna ticket booth I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Silver Therapy Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Misanthropic sienna ticket booth Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: talented thirsty place of business hell No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: titillating sepia national private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: plum out-of-control incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: plum out-of-control incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Amber abnormal boiling water http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: plum out-of-control incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Amber abnormal boiling water looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Ruddy stead codepig 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Gas Station You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Ruddy stead codepig No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29791782) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29771453) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: High-end excitant set OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29903568) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Ruby locale candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30987707) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Concupiscible Pearl Multi-billionaire Senate yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Stimulating temple messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Frisky Arousing Hominid truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Canary jap March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: pink national security agency locus http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: rambunctious amethyst love of her life jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Multi-colored Jew Theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: titillating sepia national private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Silver Therapy Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: emerald outnumbered church halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: salmon stirring house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: shaky forum I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Charcoal irradiated milk field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: carnelian vengeful range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: racy flushed trust fund box office Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: racy flushed trust fund box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: cream adventurous coldplay fan state holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Dark erotic shrine community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Sinister startled rigor nursing home Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: histrionic point LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: cobalt bipolar laser beams Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Maize lay This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Onyx know-it-all meetinghouse In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Maize lay cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: histrionic point lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: titillating sepia national private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: aphrodisiac people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Jet-lagged Fragrant Brunch Deer Antler Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Flickering swashbuckling university Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: histrionic point Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: histrionic point THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: histrionic point I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Infuriating Dead Goal In Life LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: histrionic point THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: aquamarine glittery nibblets dingle berry Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Khaki lascivious bawdyhouse queen of the night September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Floppy Black Dilemma September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: cheese-eating property god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: nubile tripping double fault XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Wine wonderful mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: 180 turquoise selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: 180 turquoise selfie The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Canary jap This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Olive office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Electric puppy genital piercing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: aquamarine glittery nibblets dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: shaky forum This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: emerald outnumbered church halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Soul-stirring alcoholic trailer park regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: swollen quadroon casino Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Autistic Cocky Indirect Expression half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Flickering swashbuckling university close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: titillating sepia national private investor Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: nubile tripping double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Sable sick roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: exhilarant area gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: slippery cyan base You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: histrionic point ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: gay heady hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Hairless Gay Wizard Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Trip Cruel-hearted Native Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: 180 turquoise selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Sticky razzmatazz mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Khaki lascivious bawdyhouse queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: razzle institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: nubile tripping double fault GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Sticky razzmatazz mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Flickering swashbuckling university it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Sinister startled rigor nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: light pea-brained marketing idea spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Blue zippy skinny woman menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Dull charismatic goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Jade organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: provocative cuckoldry idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: odious rigpig pit Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Crimson lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: bat shit crazy brass gunner shitlib 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: light pea-brained marketing idea spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: titillating sepia national private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Maize lay this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Boyish Corn Cake Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: useless impertinent center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: ultramarine plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: histrionic point November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Hairraiser stubborn international law enforcement agency you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Beta hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Ruddy stead codepig Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: cheese-eating property bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Indecent sooty faggotry whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: histrionic point sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Passionate fiercely-loyal space ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: High-end excitant set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: 180 turquoise selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: slimy glassy indian lodge They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Balding french chef Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Dull charismatic goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Jade organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Alcoholic stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Autistic Cocky Indirect Expression GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: idiotic buff police squad depressive https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: cheese-eating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Alcoholic stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: histrionic point ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: cheese-eating property truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Soul-stirring alcoholic trailer park regret TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: lilac fortuitous meteor I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Soul-stirring alcoholic trailer park regret it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: big-titted public bath pervert https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: nubile tripping double fault One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Silver Therapy Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: histrionic point What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: histrionic point https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Snowy juggernaut new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Umber site credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Impressive Black Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: bright self-centered hairy legs water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: violent cordovan garrison degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: rusted internet-worthy famous landscape painting theater Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: cheese-eating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Wine wonderful mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Multi-colored Jew Theatre It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: histrionic point lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: cheese-eating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Floppy Black Dilemma Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Gas Station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: cheese-eating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Silver Therapy Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: cheese-eating property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: magical mad-dog skullcap legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: histrionic point Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Gas Station There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Primrose (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: nubile tripping double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: deranged striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: histrionic point https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Bistre ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: cerise cracking kitchen dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: nubile tripping double fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: free-loading toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: twisted antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Primrose (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: light pea-brained marketing idea spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: laughsome awkward alpha den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: laughsome awkward alpha den https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Magenta (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: histrionic point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Silver Therapy Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Primrose (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: gold preventive strike crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: yapping twinkling (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Vermilion Mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Carmine affirmative action 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: histrionic point Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: histrionic point https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Maize lay why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: twisted antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Electric puppy genital piercing FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: twisted antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: twisted antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: galvanic flesh step-uncle's house pocket flask One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: twisted antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Jade organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Sinister startled rigor nursing home 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Sinister startled rigor nursing home https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Wine wonderful mother Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Jade organic girlfriend The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: ceo He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Deep Sandwich 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Thriller orchestra pit "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Orchid internal respiration Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Thriller orchestra pit Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: vigorous topaz really tough guy toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=2755525#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |