Harris extends lead in MI
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 4:08 PM Author: .....................-
The poll was conducted on Monday September 30, 2024, before the Vice-Presidential Debate. It was
conducted entirely by text messaging a randomly selected list of registered voter’s cell phones and directing
them to a SurveyMonkey poll (MMS-Web). 76,728 text messages were sent out with a response rate of
.00928%.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160108) |
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 3:41 PM Author: 718-662-5970
She could win with WI, PA, and NC... should she lose MI
I know you also dont see her winning NC, but maybe some black swan shit: pervy GOP gov candidate, black turnout, western red counties still fucked by flood, etc.
matter of fact, if dems were inclined to cheat, NC is the state to cheat in this year. Entire counties have been made homeless and are either displaced in other states, or scattered around with no mail address
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160006) |
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 3:47 PM Author: MASE
Even if we see a Hurricane Sandy level turnout dip in the affected Western NC counties, Trump only is at a net loss of about 15K votes.
And there was a lot less early/mail voting back then, and Sandy was far closer to the election.
In re: to the Robinson situation, reverse coattails are not a thing.
Kamala needs 75k more votes than Biden got to win NC. Can she do that in the context of us asking whether he has a lead in MICHIGAN (a state he lost by 150k last time)?
I know things aren't that simple, but swing states rarely break in different directions.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160027) |
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 4:09 PM
Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,;
The issue with Robinson is that Trump has no GOTV because TPUSA is utterly retarded and Robinson was supposed to fill in that gap with his campaign, but his entire campaign staff quit. So there isn’t anyone to try to get a mail in ballot to any of the voters in the western counties, and they just won’t vote. Let alone that Robinson is now down double digits and likely will fall further in the next month and there’s never been that degree of ticket splitting in any potential tipping point state in modern U.S. politics or really ever.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160114) |
Date: October 3rd, 2024 2:49 PM Author: cannon
Atlas Intel has been the most accurate pollster since 2016 and MI is Trump’s largest lead
https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1840257269176361457
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48159751) |
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 5:05 PM
Author: .,.,..,...,.,.,...........,,.....
AZ and NV are worse for him. A bunch of people in Dearborn and other places that otherwise would've voted for Harris are not going to vote for anyone. The more third party candidates the better for Harris. I think she's toast there.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160355) |
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 4:18 PM Author: MASE
Biden maxed out Dem turnout in 2020 to levels never seen before in American history. So here's the question: is that about to happen again? Do we see any signs of that happening?
Cause here's what I see. I see majority of Teamsters supporting Trump. I see a majority of Arab Americans supporting Trump. I see Trump with a higher than average support among blacks due exclusively to black males. I see precipitous drops across the board for mail in requests, absentee voting, early voting, and registrations in D counties. I see Gallup dropping a poll showing an R+3 electorate this cycle, the most red electorate this country has had in 20 years. And most important, I see no enthusiasm among Dems and no signs that the trailing that's currently happening amongst Dem early voting will be made up for on Election Day.
It's very simple. Dems need to have 70/30 or 65/35 splits on Election Day to win the election in NC.
Do you have any evidence that's going to happen?
Cause I have evidence of the opposite: https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1841934537858675058
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160151) |
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 4:23 PM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad
Yes, looks bad for Harris using those metrics. The only thing I have to go by in your blue UMC suburb is that no one is talking about the election. Signs are perhaps 20% of 2020. The feeling aka instinct that things are different this year is there. But instincts are often wrong. I'm not trusting it this year.
I have a work trip over the election and the upside is I get to treat myself to a bottle of whisky and a pack of cigarettes while watching the returns come in that evening. Am guessing I'm going to need it.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160178)
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 3:31 PM Author: 718-662-5970
20% with blacks is fatal to Dems. Wonder if that holds
Would also like to see arabs broken out separate
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48159969) |
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Date: October 3rd, 2024 5:07 PM
Author: .,.,..,...,.,.,...........,,.....
And this is what will be in the nail in the coffin in Michigan. They won't actually vote for Trump. But they sure as shit aren't voting for her.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5605828&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=4295921",#48160366) |
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