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Predict date by when most of xo will recognize that "AI" was a hysteria.
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 26th, 2026 4:23 PM Author: Tan gay wizard A lot of iconoclasts here, so I bet we'll realize this about 6-12 months before normies do. I'll say December 1, 2026. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621120) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:52 PM Author: House-broken Set Jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621204) |
Date: January 26th, 2026 4:23 PM Author: learning disabled vibrant main people library Have to define it more narrowly than that
AI is very real and very powerful but it's being hyped up to be something it's not |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:24 PM Author: Tan gay wizard Yeah hysteria isn't quite the right word, but I was running out of characters. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621122) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:27 PM Author: mustard beady-eyed half-breed “date by” was indispensable in your title (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621134) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:31 PM Author: Tan gay wizard ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621148) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:43 PM Author: mustard beady-eyed half-breed many xo approved shortening conventions could’ve given you more title characters (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621169) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:53 PM Author: Tan gay wizard Oh, you mean "dispensable" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621210) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:53 PM Author: mustard beady-eyed half-breed yes i was being sarcastic. i thought you liked that sort of thing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621213) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 5:26 PM Author: Tan gay wizard I was being sarcastic too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621382) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:29 PM Author: mustard beady-eyed half-breed “most of” is hard to say. i think a slight majority already are there tbh. the big AI fan here people are just really loud and they probably will never give it up bc they view it as their ticket to immortality (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621137) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:31 PM Author: marvelous locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621146) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:51 PM Author: Multi-colored hyperactive step-uncle's house pisswyrm As others have noted, "hysteria" is poorly defined in this discussion. It's not entirely smoke and mirrors; it is a very handy tool that will increase productivity in a lot of white collar fields. But I would bet my entire 401k that we won't have Optimus robots cleaning our houses and taking care of our kids within the next decade.
My prediction on how this will all play out is that the first domino to fall will be when OpenAI runs out of cash and gets bought out by some other tech giant. That will make investors think that maybe they should not be accepting absurd P/E ratios just because a company is doing something related to AI. This will lead to a significant drop in the share prices of the Magnificent Seven, which will lead to a wider stock market correction given that the Seven have driven most of the growth in the S&P over the last few years. My guess is that this will not lead to a wider economic downturn given that the Magnificent Seven are all well capitalized and can afford to light lots of money on fire, so we won't see a 2008-style panic. But once the market starts to correct, people will see that maybe AI is not going to result in a robotic utopia in the next few years.
As for the timing on this, I have no idea. Keynes' quip about how the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent seems relevant here. I'm just guessing that OpenAI is the most vulnerable player in the field because they have essentially zero revenue and they are burning cash like it is going out of style. My guess is that sooner or later investors are going to get impatient and the cash spigot will dry up. |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 4:59 PM Author: learning disabled vibrant main people library Cr and good poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621256) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 5:03 PM Author: mustard beady-eyed half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621274) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 5:28 PM Author: Tan gay wizard Yeah, this is what I meant. But does a majority of xo already recognized this? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621389) |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 8:33 PM Author: Massive private investor "But I would bet my entire 401k that we won't have Optimus robots cleaning our houses and taking care of our kids within the next decade."
You have said the actual truth. Musk recently said something along the lines of "there will be more humanoid robots than people in the world" and it's just laughably insane. No one wants this and there are significant material and energy constraints to prevent this. |
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Date: January 26th, 2026 5:03 PM Author: Stirring Slippery Spot Turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5827001&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5301927#49621271) |