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HYPO: Poker pro plays 1-3 NLHE in Vegas. Always has worst cards. Would he win $?
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Date: January 23rd, 2026 12:26 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Snowy University Useless Brakes Hypothetically, a top poker pro plays in a $1-$3 NLHE game in Vegas. He can buy in for any amount he wants.
He will always lose any show down. He knows that going in.
Would you expect him to win money? |
Date: January 23rd, 2026 12:38 PM Author: insane fuchsia pit i think he'd still win money. he'd have to change tables pretty quick, because i think people would catch on to "always has bad cards on a show down." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49611852) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2026 12:43 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Snowy University Useless Brakes Do people at 1-3 tables think that critically? What would his strategy be? Bluff big then fold to any re-raises? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49611859) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2026 4:52 PM Author: insane fuchsia pit he'd have to be buying in at the max and winning via bluffs, bc per you hypo he never has the cards. maybe he could meaningfully reraise if they let you buy in deep or whatever. but that's quite a handicap you put on (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49612773) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 2:10 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Snowy University Useless Brakes Interesting. Is buying in at the max cr? You might want to buy in for less because you're always going to lose when you have to show. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49626934) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 8:24 PM Author: insane fuchsia pit but your only possibility of success is bluffs so i felt like chips would help. if you're low stack guy going all in you're not going to get any respect/folds (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49628748) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2026 4:57 PM Author: lavender sweet tailpipe theater Do people know this dude? If not, he’d lose (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49612796) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 2:12 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Snowy University Useless Brakes Let's say he was 10th on the NLHE money list last year. Would people know him? I wouldn't, unless it was someone who was big on TV during the poker boom.
You think people would only get out of the way and fold enough to a known poker player? That might back fire, in terms of people wanting to risk $100 to put him all in and beat a notable pro. |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 2:21 PM Author: Self-absorbed Newt yeah. i remember playing online in the heyday and whenever pros were at the table people would be way looser. no one wants a story about how they made some smart fold against a pro, they wamt to talk about going to a showdown against phil ivey. win or lose thats a story, so a lot of people are going shove. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49626987) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 3:54 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Snowy University Useless Brakes "some smart fold against a pro"--risk averse lawyers notwithstanding (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49627300) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 4:14 PM Author: Self-absorbed Newt *pro shows bluff*
of counsel: well. nevertheless... |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 8:43 PM Author: lavender sweet tailpipe theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49628894) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2026 5:03 PM Author: provocative half-breed Something like 30% of hands go to showdown in normal play. Random table is probably more loose. You are going to get a lot of bluffs called and people can’t resist results-oriented thinking so you will get called more after you lose showdowns. Most of your edge as a pro is people calling when behind or bluffing into your strong hands. If your cards are always terrible I don’t think you can force random noobs into folding good hands by force of will. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49612813) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2026 5:04 PM Author: lavender sweet tailpipe theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49612816) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 2:13 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Snowy University Useless Brakes Can you get fewer than 30% to showdown by going in bigger and pushing people around? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49626945) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 2:16 PM Author: Racy corner mad cow disease >Most of your edge as a pro is people calling when behind or bluffing into your strong hands
not a poker MFE; can you pls explain this |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 9:12 PM Author: provocative half-breed Imagine you are a good player dealt KK and you raise preflop. A guy who calls with 99 is giving you money. Then the flop comes like 872. You raise and guy calls again - more money. Or the guy bluffs having a high pair and bets into you but you know you are more likely ahead and can call or raise.
On the terms of the hypo this guy always magically has AA or 88 and so bad calls get paid. |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 10:55 PM Author: Bateful alcoholic business firm In the hypo I think you know your KK is never good, so your cards never matter. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49629226) |
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Date: January 29th, 2026 8:13 AM Author: provocative half-breed Right you are always playing “can I bet a pattern that causes everyone to fold?” But in a normal game you pick up EV by bets that you want people to call and they do so. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49629736) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 2:15 PM Author: at-the-ready regret Full ring hell no
6 players, maybe
Heads up or 3-way he'd have a massive edge unless the other 2 are degens |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 4:00 PM Author: Sienna Arousing Den no, he will definitely lose money (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49627311) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 4:13 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Snowy University Useless Brakes Just do bluff at an opportune time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5825495&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5307129#49627336) |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 9:20 PM Author: black sanctuary No.
He'd be able to play position, steal, and range people better than the typical field, but under your hypo rules, even retarded fish making bad plays against him would have better hands, so he'd lose every all-in. He'd also never get paid off by worse. You have to be able to get value and occasionally cooler nits to make money at low stakes.
This would be like playing blackjack where it pays even money, and dealer 22 is a push. |
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Date: January 28th, 2026 10:04 PM Author: Bateful alcoholic business firm If he knew this was the condition he might be able to turn a small profit but it would be tough. He’ll likely be able to identify who will call down and who folds to heavy pressure when the board texture is uncomfortable for weak/tight player’s range.
You generally make money at 1/3 and 2/5 by stacking donks with big hands. Bluffing in certain spots can be profitable in its own right but IME it’s more of a means to set yourself up to get called down and win big showdowns later. |