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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 12/10/15 |
| henna appetizing orchestra pit | 12/12/15 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 01/02/17 |
| odious pink menage | 01/06/16 |
| Narrow-minded gaped headpube | 01/06/16 |
| Narrow-minded gaped headpube | 06/05/16 |
| sapphire nofapping area | 03/26/16 |
| razzmatazz travel guidebook theatre | 01/02/17 |
| trip really tough guy people who are hurt | 10/25/18 |
| Marvelous Bronze Theater Stage | 12/10/15 |
| Vivacious psychic casino | 12/10/15 |
| Motley patrolman national | 12/10/15 |
| Dashing useless brakes indian lodge | 12/10/15 |
| lake fanboi | 12/15/15 |
| Heady Gas Station Halford | 12/10/15 |
| Provocative chad mediation | 12/10/15 |
| cheese-eating rough-skinned principal's office double fault | 12/10/15 |
| Multi-colored Lilac Cruise Ship | 12/11/15 |
| canary slimy son of senegal gay wizard | 12/12/15 |
| Laughsome market wrinkle | 12/16/15 |
| irradiated cruel-hearted den wagecucks | 01/04/16 |
| cordovan underhanded point mother | 11/09/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 12/11/15 |
| Pale Fear-inspiring Hissy Fit | 12/11/15 |
| floppy lettuce | 12/11/15 |
| Multi-colored Lilac Cruise Ship | 12/11/15 |
| Comical police squad | 12/12/15 |
| Magenta Corner Selfie | 01/25/16 |
| Nubile yellow stead | 11/10/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 12/12/15 |
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| Arousing Jewess National Security Agency | 12/15/15 |
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| Well-lubricated gunner feces | 01/05/16 |
| Magenta Corner Selfie | 01/25/16 |
| pontificating senate | 12/17/16 |
| Bat shit crazy box office | 05/18/16 |
| curious preventive strike prole | 08/12/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 11/09/16 |
| balding resort | 11/09/16 |
| Hot avocado rehab | 11/09/16 |
| burgundy stage | 10/22/20 |
| Adventurous Transparent Therapy School | 12/15/15 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 12/16/15 |
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| odious pink menage | 01/06/16 |
| disgusting federal milk | 12/18/15 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 12/21/15 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 12/30/15 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 01/04/16 |
| irradiated cruel-hearted den wagecucks | 01/04/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 01/05/16 |
| Magenta Corner Selfie | 01/25/16 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 01/08/16 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 01/18/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 01/19/16 |
| Flushed station | 01/21/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 01/25/16 |
| frum doobsian parlor partner | 01/25/16 |
| Magenta Corner Selfie | 01/25/16 |
| frum doobsian parlor partner | 02/09/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 09/06/16 |
| odious pink menage | 11/05/18 |
| azure autistic school cafeteria becky | 01/29/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 02/01/16 |
| Pearl boyish stage giraffe | 02/01/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 02/01/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 02/07/16 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 02/20/16 |
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| Bat shit crazy box office | 02/24/16 |
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| unhinged cracking church building degenerate | 02/27/16 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Keepsake Machete | 03/09/16 |
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| godawful native place of business | 02/24/16 |
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| turquoise location | 07/21/16 |
| Diverse brindle ticket booth | 02/24/16 |
| Motley patrolman national | 02/27/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/02/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/04/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/09/16 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/15/16 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/16/16 |
| Provocative chad mediation | 03/16/16 |
| balding resort | 03/23/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/23/16 |
| Khaki shitlib | 03/26/16 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/26/16 |
| Well-lubricated gunner feces | 03/28/16 |
| balding resort | 03/28/16 |
| Vivacious psychic casino | 03/28/16 |
| curious preventive strike prole | 08/12/16 |
| odious pink menage | 11/05/18 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/28/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/29/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 03/29/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 03/29/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/29/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 03/29/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 04/01/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 04/04/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 04/15/16 |
| Chestnut Boltzmann Persian | 04/15/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 04/19/16 |
| Pearly library indirect expression | 04/20/16 |
| histrionic ebony heaven idea he suggested | 04/20/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 04/24/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 04/25/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 04/26/16 |
| Greedy stimulating range tank | 04/26/16 |
| Aggressive spruce public bath personal credit line | 04/30/16 |
| amethyst bipolar fortuitous meteor | 05/01/16 |
| amethyst bipolar fortuitous meteor | 11/07/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 05/02/16 |
| balding resort | 05/02/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 05/03/16 |
| Startling Flickering Goyim Hall | 05/03/16 |
| big sneaky criminal telephone | 05/03/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 05/04/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 05/04/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 05/05/16 |
| Garnet multi-billionaire community account | 05/05/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 05/05/16 |
| Coral sex offender mexican | 05/05/16 |
| thriller crawly private investor | 05/18/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 05/18/16 |
| Bat shit crazy box office | 05/18/16 |
| thriller crawly private investor | 05/18/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 05/29/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 06/20/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 06/29/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 07/14/16 |
| Wonderful dun associate stag film | 07/15/16 |
| curious preventive strike prole | 07/15/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 07/17/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 07/17/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 07/21/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 07/22/16 |
| Geriatric tripping toaster | 07/22/16 |
| mind-boggling disrespectful roommate | 07/23/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 07/24/16 |
| contagious locus trust fund | 07/25/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 07/25/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 07/27/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 08/05/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 08/09/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 08/12/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 08/12/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 08/12/16 |
| Charismatic brass mad-dog skullcap | 08/12/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 08/30/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 08/30/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 09/06/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 09/13/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 09/14/16 |
| stirring ungodly property | 09/14/16 |
| Saffron Space Queen Of The Night | 09/15/16 |
| vibrant poppy faggotry | 09/15/16 |
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| Snowy abode | 09/15/16 |
| Cerebral faggot firefighter | 09/15/16 |
| Excitant Regret Toilet Seat | 09/19/16 |
| Excitant Regret Toilet Seat | 09/19/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 09/27/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 09/24/16 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 09/27/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 09/27/16 |
| Provocative chad mediation | 09/27/16 |
| crusty mental disorder theater | 10/08/16 |
| Abusive rebellious state | 07/29/24 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 09/28/16 |
| stirring ungodly property | 09/28/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 09/28/16 |
| histrionic ebony heaven idea he suggested | 09/28/16 |
| Chestnut Boltzmann Persian | 09/28/16 |
| soggy 180 boistinker | 10/08/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 10/09/16 |
| Overrated clown | 10/09/16 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 10/09/16 |
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| lascivious cuckold macaca | 10/10/16 |
| contagious locus trust fund | 10/30/16 |
| curious preventive strike prole | 11/01/16 |
| Snowy abode | 11/01/16 |
| french step-uncle's house main people | 11/02/16 |
| ocher vigorous roast beef | 11/02/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 11/07/16 |
| Passionate anal address black woman | 11/08/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 11/08/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 11/08/16 |
| lascivious cuckold macaca | 11/08/16 |
| bateful pisswyrm | 11/08/16 |
| Disturbing kitchen idiot | 11/08/16 |
| Pearl boyish stage giraffe | 11/08/16 |
| Excitant Regret Toilet Seat | 11/08/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 11/08/16 |
| Exhilarant Slate Reading Party House | 11/09/16 |
| Saffron Space Queen Of The Night | 11/09/16 |
| Mentally Impaired Center Generalized Bond | 11/09/16 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 11/09/16 |
| Snowy abode | 11/09/16 |
| Exhilarant Slate Reading Party House | 11/09/16 |
| contagious locus trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| Garnet multi-billionaire community account | 11/09/16 |
| insanely creepy rose dysfunction | 12/03/16 |
| Nubile yellow stead | 12/07/16 |
| pontificating senate | 12/17/16 |
| Electric Bonkers Factory Reset Button | 10/11/24 |
| Galvanic lavender hospital | 11/09/16 |
| Glittery lay | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed dull institution weed whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Hyperactive chapel | 11/09/16 |
| insanely creepy rose dysfunction | 11/09/16 |
| curious preventive strike prole | 11/09/16 |
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| thriller crawly private investor | 11/09/16 |
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| topaz razzle forum hairy legs | 11/09/16 |
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| coldplay fan | 11/14/16 |
| lemon affirmative action trump supporter | 12/04/16 |
| pontificating senate | 12/17/16 |
| Electric Bonkers Factory Reset Button | 10/11/24 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 11/25/16 |
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| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 01/02/17 |
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| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 01/02/17 |
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| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 03/03/20 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 01/20/17 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 05/03/17 |
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| Motley patrolman national | 01/23/17 |
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| odious pink menage | 03/22/17 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 04/17/17 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 05/08/17 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 06/20/17 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 08/10/17 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 10/15/17 |
| balding resort | 10/15/17 |
| Dark Jew Sanctuary | 10/15/17 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 11/06/17 |
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| internet-worthy ivory messiness temple | 11/08/17 |
| Indecent University Masturbator | 11/13/17 |
| balding resort | 12/18/17 |
| Zippy Juggernaut Karate | 12/18/17 |
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| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 01/30/18 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 07/18/18 |
| balding resort | 07/19/18 |
| Cerebral faggot firefighter | 09/20/18 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 09/25/18 |
| Vivacious psychic casino | 10/06/18 |
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| Narrow-minded gaped headpube | 10/25/18 |
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| Magenta Corner Selfie | 11/05/18 |
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| odious pink menage | 11/05/18 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 01/08/19 |
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| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 03/13/19 |
| Magenta Corner Selfie | 06/24/19 |
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| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 11/18/19 |
| Snowy abode | 02/12/20 |
| Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate | 02/12/20 |
| Supple Round Eye Garrison | 03/24/20 |
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| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: henna appetizing orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: odious pink menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: sapphire nofapping area 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: razzmatazz travel guidebook theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: trip really tough guy people who are hurt "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Marvelous Bronze Theater Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Vivacious psychic casino 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Motley patrolman national 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Dashing useless brakes indian lodge Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: lake fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Heady Gas Station Halford FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Provocative chad mediation Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: cheese-eating rough-skinned principal's office double fault Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Multi-colored Lilac Cruise Ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: canary slimy son of senegal gay wizard Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Laughsome market wrinkle Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: irradiated cruel-hearted den wagecucks Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: cordovan underhanded point mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Pale Fear-inspiring Hissy Fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: floppy lettuce 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Multi-colored Lilac Cruise Ship November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Comical police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Magenta Corner Selfie Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Nubile yellow stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: thriller crawly private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: concupiscible ruddy turdskin church lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: fragrant volcanic crater March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Arousing Jewess National Security Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Filthy alpha pozpig 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: stirring ungodly property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: buff insecure newt lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Khaki shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Garnet multi-billionaire community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: umber metal lodge Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: spectacular immigrant business firm Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Provocative chad mediation OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Provocative chad mediation And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Keepsake Machete 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: turquoise location fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Gay titillating tanning salon sandwich I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: ocher vigorous roast beef 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: rambunctious office February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Jet brunch You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Well-lubricated gunner feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Magenta Corner Selfie Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: pontificating senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Bat shit crazy box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: curious preventive strike prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Hot avocado rehab Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: burgundy stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Adventurous Transparent Therapy School This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: buck-toothed locale stain 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: razzle-dazzle dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: citrine self-centered site Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Flushed station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: odious pink menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: disgusting federal milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Filthy alpha pozpig 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: irradiated cruel-hearted den wagecucks flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Magenta Corner Selfie Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Flushed station From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: chest-beating mauve bawdyhouse 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: soul-stirring hilarious pocket flask field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: thirsty set sound barrier An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Kink-friendly unholy meetinghouse 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: thirsty set sound barrier I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: odious pink menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: thirsty set sound barrier Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Kink-friendly unholy meetinghouse No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: curious preventive strike prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Filthy alpha pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Filthy alpha pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Flushed station http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Filthy alpha pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Flushed station looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: amethyst bipolar fortuitous meteor Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: amethyst bipolar fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Startling Flickering Goyim Hall holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: big sneaky criminal telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Garnet multi-billionaire community account Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Coral sex offender mexican Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: thriller crawly private investor This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Bat shit crazy box office In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: thriller crawly private investor cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Wonderful dun associate stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: curious preventive strike prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Geriatric tripping toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: mind-boggling disrespectful roommate Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: contagious locus trust fund Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Charismatic brass mad-dog skullcap LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: stirring ungodly property Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Saffron Space Queen Of The Night September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: vibrant poppy faggotry September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Snowy abode XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Cerebral faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Excitant Regret Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Excitant Regret Toilet Seat The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Provocative chad mediation This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: crusty mental disorder theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Abusive rebellious state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: stirring ungodly property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: histrionic ebony heaven idea he suggested This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Chestnut Boltzmann Persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: soggy 180 boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Overrated clown Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: arrogant racy quadroon nursing home half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: contagious locus trust fund close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: curious preventive strike prole Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Snowy abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: french step-uncle's house main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: ocher vigorous roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Passionate anal address black woman You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: bateful pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Disturbing kitchen idiot Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Pearl boyish stage giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Excitant Regret Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Exhilarant Slate Reading Party House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Saffron Space Queen Of The Night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Mentally Impaired Center Generalized Bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Snowy abode GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Exhilarant Slate Reading Party House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: contagious locus trust fund it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Garnet multi-billionaire community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: insanely creepy rose dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Nubile yellow stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: pontificating senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Electric Bonkers Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Galvanic lavender hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Glittery lay Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Beady-eyed dull institution weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Hyperactive chapel 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: insanely creepy rose dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: curious preventive strike prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: thriller crawly private investor this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: topaz razzle forum hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Exciting parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: aromatic emerald crackhouse rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Dashing useless brakes indian lodge you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: disgusting federal milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: frum doobsian parlor partner Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Coiffed pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: lascivious cuckold macaca ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Red insane nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Excitant Regret Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: coldplay fan They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: lemon affirmative action trump supporter Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: pontificating senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Electric Bonkers Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Know-it-all Carnelian Hell Circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: arrogant racy quadroon nursing home GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: claret whorehouse https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Know-it-all Carnelian Hell Circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: useless piazza October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: useless piazza ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: useless piazza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: soggy 180 boistinker TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: useless piazza It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Tan home I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: soggy 180 boistinker it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: useless piazza The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: useless piazza https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Motley patrolman national this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Snowy abode One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: odious pink menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Dark Jew Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Shrine credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: copper spot ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: internet-worthy ivory messiness temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Indecent University Masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Zippy Juggernaut Karate Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Cerebral faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Vivacious psychic casino It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: vibrant poppy faggotry Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Magenta Corner Selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: odious pink menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Narrow-minded gaped headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Dingle Berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Magenta Corner Selfie There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: abnormal dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Snowy abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Wonderful dun associate stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Wonderful dun associate stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Wonderful dun associate stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Snowy abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Marvelous Bronze Theater Stage Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Sexy impressive blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: awkward potus liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: abnormal dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Swollen idiotic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: insanely creepy rose dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: burgundy stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: burgundy stage https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Learning Disabled Hunting Ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: odious pink menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: abnormal dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: balding resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: up-to-no-good organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: elite scourge upon the earth codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: zombie-like fuchsia depressive 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Marvelous Bronze Theater Stage A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Supple Round Eye Garrison https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: thriller crawly private investor why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: awkward potus liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Abusive rebellious state FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: awkward potus liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: awkward potus liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Marvelous Bronze Theater Stage One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: awkward potus liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Electric Bonkers Factory Reset Button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Garnet multi-billionaire community account 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Garnet multi-billionaire community account https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Cerebral faggot firefighter Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Electric Bonkers Factory Reset Button The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Carmine He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: sooty dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: salmon puppy 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: costumed gaming laptop Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Iridescent Big-titted Doctorate Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Motley patrolman national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5309370",#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |