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Biggest Hopium-laced Cope of the cycle is Baris/MASE on PA
| Arousing dilemma round eye | 10/01/24 |
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Date: October 1st, 2024 2:28 PM Author: Arousing dilemma round eye I will stipulate that PA is close and still very winnable for both candidates. But there are a lot of warning signs in PA that the Trafalgar/Atlas side of the discussion just refuses to acknowledge.
https://www.alternet.org/trump-harris-pennsylvania/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna170516
So the Trump campaign is somehow spiking registrations in PA, smallest gap to the Dems in decades. But the rural population is declining even more rapidly than expected, Trump outsourced GOTV to TP USA who are targeting rural/exburban marginal voters (allegedly) and 1/4 GOP voters who do not identify as MAGA are likely voters for Harris. But one (Dem partisan paid by the Harris campaign) pollster tells Baris that the PA internals for Harris look bad and that’s the gospel. Meanwhile a steady stream of polling over the past few weeks and the past two months shows that Kamala has made nearly all her ground up with younger voters that Trump is purportedly targeting, and is now offsetting losses with over 50 voters. Ie TP USA are complete and utter failures who have shit the bed badly in their main task from the Trump campaign.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/philadelphia/news/pennsylvania-young-voters-election-trump-harris/
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/23/politics/young-voters-pennsylvania-trump-harris
In the best case where you fully believe that the race in PA is 48/44 Trump any logical analysis would say Trump is succeeding despite himself. And the fear that has to sit in the back of any Trumpmos mind is that the polls aren’t off by 3-5 points in Trump’s favor this year. All the pollsters are so focused on not being embarrassed by undercounting non-college white Trump vote, and as a result they are either overcorrecting or failing to see changes with other key voting demos, and still have no clue what’s happening with black and Latino men under 40. If I was a Trumpmo that gave money to the campaign I would be livid that they are fucking up GOTV this badly.
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