Their argument seems to be that when the US drops a missile on an Iranian target, that's bad for America because now it has to manufacture a new bomb.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5844543&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310074",#49735968)

Not clear we can do anything to fix the Strait situation

Not looking likely that Iranian dildo libs will rise up against the mullahs

Extremely unlikely that Trump is willing to put boots on the ground or even carry on the air compaign for too long

Most likely end result is that this drags on based on Iran's (not our) timetable, government stays in power, we realize we probably shouldn't do this again when we do go home, and you end up with a more emboldened Iran under a younger, more radical cleric now deified as a national hero, that can operate with a freer hand knowing it can fend off the Jews and America

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5844543&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310074",#49736071)

if oil steadies above $100 or $120 in a few weeks and the jewish numbers falter he's bringing everyone home

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5844543&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310074",#49736081)

But this notion that the regime opponents were expected to already be in the streets is idiotic. They aren’t going to repeat January and fight bullets with skin and it was literally raining oil like 72 hours ago. The precision and real time targeting of strikes on checkpoints and basij gathering spots yesterday reflects on the ground info being relayed (admittedly could just be Mossad) but it would be idiotic to assume the streets will rise up and not have thought about how they will be armed and supported logistically. Trump and Hegseth dumb enough to make an error like that, but Rubio and the joint chiefs aren’t and this has been on Israel’s plate since last summer (see also the 2 dozen + IRGC commander assassinations).

Not to mention how many truly stupid “analyses” by “experts” are flooding the media in the west, especially this week as the regime has coordinated its efforts to “launch” Mojtaba as supreme leader. https://x.com/reubenr80027912/status/2032081992100057560?s=46&t=bnOsJ_wwsvJ4uXMCgVjfFw

If Trump TACOs and we leave that just means there’s a longer, bloodier insurgency that destabilizes oil markets and raises prices for a longer period of time. Ie it’s very likely we get drawn back in, likely within a year. We are pot committed and these are likely the best set of cards we will be able to play in this war. If there’s not significant armed resistance happening v the regime by the summer you can officially declare that the Iranian people are also chickening out and there’s no hope for regime change, but it’s so very stupid to declare that to be the case today, and anyone saying it is just a retard telling on themselves, who was likely saying “it will be just like Venezuela” two weeks ago.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5844543&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310074",#49736966)