Nate Silver says the likelihood of black swan events favors Kamala
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Date: October 4th, 2024 6:35 PM
Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr
Never forgot that this a variable in his model, and by his own admission it is biased in Kamala's favor. Political Science.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5606572&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310443",#48164397) |
Date: October 4th, 2024 6:58 PM
Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr
There are, however, two major sources of uncertainty. One is whether the Trump campaign will take the high road or the low road. In rare possession of the moral highground, will Trump ask the nation to come together? Or, like one of his potential VP picks, Senator J.D.Vance of Ohio, will he plunge us further into darkness, blaming his political opponents for the attempt on his life? The high road is probably the more electorally rewarding course, believe it or not, especially given that Trump was winning to begin with. But candidates with authoritarian tendencies can obviously seize on moments like these also.
https://x.com/JDVance1/status/1812280973628965109
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5606572&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310443",#48164472) |
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