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Redditors think the S&P500 provides a Guaranteed 8% Return
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:31 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) It’s unthinkable to them that it could just go flat like Japan, China, Europe, Middle East, South America stonks. It provides a guaranteed return except in the event of a collapse in which case, “you’ll have bigger problems than your stock portfolio.” They aren’t “pretty sure” or “mostly sure.” It’s a bona fide Certainty. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:28 AM Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,. and they've styled on fags like you predicting a flatlining for the past 20 years.
I'm 35 and just hit $3M net worth on a relatively modest salary by trusting the S&P500. You? LJL
This was actually the single most valuable thing I learned from my financial economics class or any class in college outside the math and stats departments. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:31 AM Author: Cowstack (🧐) Tho modetht! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112429) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:20 AM Author: Wang Hernandez Show your math on this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112648) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:17 PM Author: sealclubber modeth thalary pwuth $2.5m inheritance pwuth a couple of good yearth in the market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48114041) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:00 PM Author: When I grow up I want to be a pumo Cr. Learning the efficient markets hypothesis alone generates a positive return on four years of college tuition. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113594) |
Date: September 19th, 2024 10:36 PM Author: .......,,,,,,,....... That’s the Boglehead philosophy as well (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111521) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:46 PM Author: .......,,,,,,,....... https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/s/J8sa1IGBHo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111587) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:01 PM Author: baked sink burger These low risk Melvin analytical geniuses get tons of pussy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111665) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:42 AM Author: winrar (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112441) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:33 PM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat low risk analytical pussy is the best pussy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113261) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:34 PM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113263) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:49 PM Author: ;;;..........;.;.;.;.;.;.;.,,;.;.,,,;.;. in the event of a collapse in which case, “you’ll have bigger problems than your stock portfolio.
This part is true. What else are you going to do with your money besides buy into the Jewish money letters casino? Once you have a House and Guns and Ammo, what else is going to help you when permanent ITE comes? |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:58 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111644) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:33 AM Author: Cowstack (🧐) No ding-dong the point is it's perfectly possible for a market to go sideways for decades absent a collapse. It's not like there's a binary "number go up" or "total chaos communism". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112431) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:07 PM Author: theranchman im starting to think theyre not wrong. all of our policies are inflationary. why exactly do you disagree, financial guru karlstack? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111684) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:07 PM Author: Florida Surgeon General Joseph A. Ladapo it's up 91% in the last 5 years, so if they think it's 8% a year they are indeed retarded (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111687) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:13 PM Author: ........,,,,,,......,.,.,.,,,,,,,,,, Every important and influential person in the US owns a shit ton of stock.
If you're going to invest in anything, why not invest in the single thing that the US Political system is designed to protect? |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:34 PM Author: I'm gay tp The line must go up (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111769) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 10:24 AM Author: ............,.,.,.,.......,,.,., (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112807) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:18 PM Author: sealclubber real estate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48114046) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:16 PM Author: Christopher's Disease Easy choice for you to make, given your complete lack of capital with which to stand behind it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111718) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:18 PM Author: Karlstack (Retard) as long as US allows immigration, the S&P will continue to go higher. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111726) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:20 PM Author: zurich is stained You can’t really call anything a certainty, but what are you ridiculing here? In all likelihood they’re right. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111737) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:23 PM Author: posting in histrionic thread I don't think you "get" economics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111746) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:37 PM No, they're expecting an 8% average. That you don't understand the difference between expected and guaranteed value explains a lot about your life. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111774) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:29 AM Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111963) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113298) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:39 PM Author: \'\'\"\"\'\'\'\" if you put tail hedge on then you could probably do very well in case it pops. worst would be stagflation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111780) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:41 PM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) A lot of these redditors are saving in their plans at work, which are great ways to take tax advantages, but those plans are predatory as fuck and administration fees eat up that dividend return, and with that drag, these employment plans are not going to perform as advertised. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111800) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:58 PM Author: theranchman lol nice word salad disco.
"eat up that dividend return" - the word "that" in this sentence reference "tax advantages" in the prior. two wholly distinct concepts
and your threatening conclusion is that they do not perform as advertised. to whom is this the relevant question rather than "would that money, tax adjusted, outperform if put in the SPX or the plan" |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:45 AM Author: zurich is stained do you have any evidence that administrative fees eat significantly into gains in 401k plans? i don't pay very close attention, but i think mine charges like $50 a quarter or some shit, same with my wife's. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112562) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:07 AM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) My wife’s plans charge about 0.95% If the dividend yield is about 2%, almost half of that is going to admin charges of the plan itself. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112610) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:17 AM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., It is very on brand for you to be in a terrible fee-laden 401k that probably involves kickbacks between employer and advisor. Normal 401k now have Vanguard funds with like 0.1% admin fees on top. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112637) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:29 AM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) Her plan has FXAIX, which is a great fund with a 0.015% fund expense ratio. The problem isn't her fund options, it's the plan itself. They are charging her $4,000 a year just to have an account open. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:35 PM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat If you are familiar with plans still charging predatory fees in 2024 give me a call because there are million$ to be made in erisa class actions (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113264) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) I am aware of two plans that are charging in the neighborhood of 0.9-1.0 percent right off the top for nothing and both plans have thousands of participants. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113300) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:42 PM Author: Christopher's Disease Administration fees with my plan are a flat $12 a year and ~0.015% expense ratio lol. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113288) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:19 AM Author: Tim Daotua They’re right, it’s a chill 8% return right until it goes to zero. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111940) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:25 AM Author: ..,.,,,...,..,,.,...,.,,.,.. The amount of uncertainty in capital market assumptions is insane. Even over a 30 year time horizon you can get absolutely fucked:
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
Imagine getting the 5th percentile US equity returns of 3.1% CAGR for 30 years. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:28 AM Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,. 3.1% returns! Oh the humanity!!!! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48111960) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:46 AM Author: ChadGPT-5 "stocks only go up!" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112008) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:51 AM Author: AZNgirl dating Single A player instead of Ohtani The last thing the US has going for it is printing fraud Jew money which juices corporate profits and the stook market. Once stock gains are gone or even go to 1-2% annual for a ten year period then lol, its over (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112012) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 1:03 AM Author: theranchman you, like disco, are making absolutely no sense in your causality (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112037) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:53 AM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr Only a Canadian would think this is insightful (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112016) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:34 AM Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. First, that’s the expected average over a long period of time (i.e. we could be down 20% in one year and up 30% one year but it evens out over the long term out to 8% gain)
And it’s not just Reddit. The financial planning and wealth management industries take this as an absolute and undeniable truth. Probably because most people realistically can’t retire unless it’s true. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 6:59 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) If it were a total certainty, there’d be no equity risk premium. It would all be priced in. It would actually return less pre-tax than a 30y treasury. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112400) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:25 PM Author: theranchman karlstack took his intro to market theory class on youtube yesterday! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113678) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: subcontinental computer genius S&P500 had puny and at times negative inflation adjusted returns for decades after the late 1960s.
November 1968 to November 1988: inflation adjusted price return, -1.38%. Inflation adjusted total return (w dividend reinvestment), 2.73%.
November 1968 to September 1985: inflation adjusted price return, -3.27%. Inflation adjusted total return, 0.9%
worst case-November 1968 to July 1982: inflation adjusted price return, -6.89%. Inflation adjusted total return, -2.94%.
all percentage returns annualized
You don't think the market can chop sideways for decades from now when Price Earnings ratio is already at nosebleed levels? |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:28 AM Author: Alien vs Predator vs Brown vs Board of Education Excellent critique of Reddit from the most Reddity of posters. Edit: wtf that’s cowgod (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112426) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:34 AM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., You’re right that redditors are dumb and have no understanding of volatility or the drivers of long-term stock returns. But even the markets you cite as flat are up over the last 5/10 years. Not up as much as the US but far better than negative real rate safe assets. Avoiding stocks in your long-term investments so you can feel superior to people who lost $$$ in various bubbles is even dumber than being a redditor and guarantees that you remain poor. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112540) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:48 AM Author: zurich is stained i'm not even sure that's what cowgod is advocating. he's just ridiculing redditors for thinking that it's a sure thing that the s&p will average 8-10% per year. it's not sure in the sense that nothing is guaranteed, but there is a very long track record of US stocks increasing significantly over time. could that stop someday? sure. what is the point of saying that? this is like ridiculing a redditor for saying he's absolutely certain that an an engine won't fall off a plane and into his house. LOL that idiot doesn't know that that is a CERTAINTY! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112564) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:51 AM Author: So we looked at the data Hm what is different about the US vs all these other countries, why does the world keep buying US debt and equity, it's a mystery which cowgod will never unravel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112568) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:52 AM Author: jewish pussy is a blessing thread backfired, IMO.
Discuss |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:58 AM Author: winrar Karlstack (Retired) is a Joke and Loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112578) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:05 AM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr Karlstack is dumber than every Indian. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112602) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:18 AM Author: zurich is stained op is cowgod, bro
he's been ridiculing me on the boart re my investment practices for the last month plus. meanwhile, i put my entire 401k balance into VOO, SCHD, SCHG, VGT, and SMH. in the last two weeks it's gone from like $690k to $790k. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 1:42 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Why are you so poor? Aren’t you a Partner? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113522) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:13 PM Author: Cowstack (🧐) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113655) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:05 AM Author: Karlstack (Retard) no, u (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112924) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:17 AM Author: brian lefevre if you just lit money on fire until there was no money anymore forever then humanity would be much better off and most useless people would just die (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112639) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:03 AM But then how would I pay hookers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112912) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., If there were no money hookers would be even more willing to work for food and drugs. The challenge would be getting enough food and drugs, especially for those of us in the class that would be sacrificed to make a skull pyramid in the post-capitalist world. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48114372) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:05 AM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) bought 50K worth of QQQ this morning and now I'm Losing wtf (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48112929) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:23 PM Author: Gregor It does. And where else are they supposed to put their cash? Turo fleet rentals? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48113673) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:13 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) I was really just looking for an “I am most likely right. You are most likely wrong. Since I am acting like I know everything here is some proof that I know something. Here are some reasons why I think the US is different from these other countries. Here is why I think the national debt situation won’t fuck us over. Here is why I think losing the petrodollar/reserve currency status doesn’t matter. Here is why I think our military that enforces petrodollars won’t just get all of its carriers sunk by coordinated drone attacks. Here is why I think SPY won’t crab for 23 years (inflation adjusted) like it did from 1969-1992….. champ.”
But all anyone can tell me is the Same Thing we’ve all heard before. I want to discover truth and reveal New Facts. Not backward looking data that says nothing but, “boomers became easily rich.” |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:32 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe You wrote the OP with a "lol at these reddit 'tards" tone that caused the backlash. Why is the S&P 500 index a good investment over the long-haul? 1) US reserve currency status, 2) a small chunk of the S&P is too big to fail (major financial corp and tech companies that the US and world economy depends on), 3) unlike your other examples, the companies in the index are very well-diversified mega-MNC's with revenue streams all around the world, 4) the most powerful people in the world a major stakeholders.
Altogether, well diversified indexing is as good as it gets. I think the sentiment that "if this thing generates shit returns over my 30+ years of working, then everything is fucked" is a pretty sound one. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:09 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Aren’t you that guy who’s always wrong about everything (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48114263) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:34 PM Author: ,.,,,. Imagine how much I'd have if I put all my $$ into tqqq Dec 2022. It was at 17. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310684",#48114099) |