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Will Trump win a Reagan-level landslide?
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Date: June 28th, 2024 10:52 PM Author: saffron judgmental love of her life casino On one hand, it's definitely conceivable if Biden stays in. Plenty of people voted for Mondale in 84, and Reagan "only" won 60-40. But that was enough for him to win everywhere but Minnesota and DC. Trump was probably ahead by a point or two before the debate, so it's not crazy to thing that it could go from 51-49 (excluding RFK and others) to 60-40.
On the other hand, politics seems a lot more hardened than it was back then. Seems like lots of libs would vote for Biden even if he is a dementia patient, either as a protest when they know he won't win, or because they genuinely hate Trump that much. |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 10:54 PM Author: saffron judgmental love of her life casino Technically, Reagan only won 59-41 in 84. Basically eight points better than Trump pre-debate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791075) |
Date: June 28th, 2024 10:58 PM Author: saffron judgmental love of her life casino Fuck it, I'm calling it now. I hereby predict that Trump will win by an amount similar to Reagan in 1980 and or 1984, in the popular vote and or the electoral college. Come at me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791086) |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 10:58 PM Author: Maize partner striped hyena Trump is not winning California or New York (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791087) |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 10:59 PM Author: saffron judgmental love of her life casino The Republican candidate for NY governor only lost 53-47 last time. There is a lot of discontent out there bubbling beneath the surface. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791089) |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 11:07 PM Author: iridescent boyish french chef I’m doubtful, but if it does happen, Hochul will pardon him the next day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791121) |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 11:16 PM Author: iridescent boyish french chef A landslide for him would be winning all of the toss-ups, which now includes VA and MN. That’d bring him to 336, I think. With today’s adjusted demographics and polarization, that’s as dominant as it can get. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791142) |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 11:26 PM Author: saffron judgmental love of her life casino Everything works a certain way, until it doesn't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791163) |
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Date: June 29th, 2024 12:23 AM Author: diverse abode He’d get Maine in that case too, maybe New Mexico. Next tier would be Colorado. Could also see NY or NJ if stars align. Agree he’s never winning most of New England or the West coast. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791293) |
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Date: June 29th, 2024 12:36 AM Author: saffron judgmental love of her life casino If he wins those states, he's probably winning Maryland, Connecticut and Oregon too. He's well over 400 EV's at that point. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791308) |
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Date: June 29th, 2024 8:06 AM Author: iridescent boyish french chef Haha not likely, but my point is that 336 would be a crushing landslide by 2024 standards. That's independent of any prediction.
Getting 400 EV's in 2024 would be more shocking than getting 85% of the popular vote in 1984. |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 11:35 PM Author: bespoke tattoo Yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791187) |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 11:41 PM Author: impressive hunting ground of course not (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791204) |
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Date: June 28th, 2024 11:44 PM Author: Stimulating twisted lodge quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791212) |
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Date: June 29th, 2024 12:39 AM Author: zombie-like black woman newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5547505&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310690",#47791317) |
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Date: June 29th, 2024 8:19 AM Author: Fishy Mind-boggling State I'd have laughed this time last week. But anything is now possible. Including a major Trump fuckup between today and the election.
Closest to landslide would probably be winning all swing states plus VA and MN. Rest of the states are too deeply Democratic and would vote for a corpse because "it's the team behind Biden that matters."
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