The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/10/15 |
| Heady theater stage ladyboy | 12/12/15 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 01/02/17 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 01/06/16 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 01/06/16 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 06/05/16 |
| Dark kitty love of her life | 03/26/16 |
| claret mad cow disease round eye | 01/02/17 |
| free-loading principal's office | 10/25/18 |
| Submissive gas station half-breed | 12/10/15 |
| primrose locale | 12/10/15 |
| aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch | 12/10/15 |
| Trip property background story | 12/10/15 |
| Frozen cream lodge puppy | 12/15/15 |
| razzmatazz indigo station gay wizard | 12/10/15 |
| Brass dopamine mental disorder | 12/10/15 |
| flatulent vibrant kitchen death wish | 12/10/15 |
| supple scourge upon the earth parlour | 12/11/15 |
| Anal Razzle-dazzle Menage Legend | 12/12/15 |
| Underhanded pistol | 12/16/15 |
| razzle marketing idea | 01/04/16 |
| High-end sick box office | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/11/15 |
| bearded shaky codepig place of business | 12/11/15 |
| Soul-stirring Talking Native | 12/11/15 |
| supple scourge upon the earth parlour | 12/11/15 |
| Milky Aromatic Sandwich | 12/12/15 |
| sickened cocky cruise ship | 01/25/16 |
| smoky chapel macaca | 11/10/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/12/15 |
| Walnut big associate | 12/12/15 |
| Mind-boggling Market | 12/12/15 |
| emerald hot site keepsake machete | 12/12/15 |
| electric pink psychic meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe | 12/21/15 |
| Avocado New Version Main People | 12/12/15 |
| angry grizzly trump supporter | 12/12/15 |
| bright vivacious travel guidebook wagecucks | 12/12/15 |
| idiotic odious useless brakes | 12/12/15 |
| Mint ratface | 12/12/15 |
| Brilliant party of the first part dingle berry | 12/12/15 |
| Brass dopamine mental disorder | 12/15/15 |
| Brass dopamine mental disorder | 12/16/15 |
| Flushed fluffy area faggotry | 12/15/15 |
| Concupiscible Messiness | 12/15/15 |
| Violet Offensive Persian Field | 12/15/15 |
| hideous fragrant twinkling uncleanness senate | 12/15/15 |
| Ivory Thirsty Yarmulke Fanboi | 12/15/15 |
| Motley ruby tanning salon potus | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 12/15/15 |
| shimmering school | 01/05/16 |
| sickened cocky cruise ship | 01/25/16 |
| Infuriating cordovan trailer park international law enforcement agency | 12/17/16 |
| Charcoal bearded rigor | 05/18/16 |
| Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat | 08/12/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 11/09/16 |
| Laughsome stag film jew | 11/09/16 |
| Lascivious Church Double Fault | 10/22/20 |
| Irradiated light lay roast beef | 12/15/15 |
| Plum Soggy Church Building Kitty Cat | 12/16/15 |
| Hateful Contagious Haunted Graveyard Sound Barrier | 12/16/15 |
| Drunken temple gunner | 12/16/15 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 12/16/15 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 12/17/15 |
| aphrodisiac mexican state | 12/18/15 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 01/06/16 |
| Medicated bawdyhouse knife | 12/18/15 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 12/21/15 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 12/21/15 |
| Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe | 12/21/15 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 12/30/15 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 12/30/15 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 01/04/16 |
| razzle marketing idea | 01/04/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 01/05/16 |
| sickened cocky cruise ship | 01/25/16 |
| aphrodisiac mexican state | 01/05/16 |
| Exhilarant Hilarious Step-uncle's House Headpube | 01/05/16 |
| Bat-shit-crazy Pervert | 01/05/16 |
| Stimulating crystalline shrine queen of the night | 01/05/16 |
| violent comical den feces | 01/05/16 |
| Stimulating crystalline shrine queen of the night | 01/05/16 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 01/06/16 |
| Stimulating crystalline shrine queen of the night | 01/06/16 |
| violent comical den feces | 01/05/16 |
| Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat | 01/06/16 |
| Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe | 01/07/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 01/08/16 |
| exciting plaza | 01/08/16 |
| Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe | 01/08/16 |
| aphrodisiac mexican state | 01/09/16 |
| Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe | 01/10/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 01/18/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 01/19/16 |
| aphrodisiac mexican state | 01/21/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 01/25/16 |
| Translucent diverse theater genital piercing | 01/25/16 |
| sickened cocky cruise ship | 01/25/16 |
| Translucent diverse theater genital piercing | 02/09/16 |
| exciting plaza | 09/06/16 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 11/05/18 |
| rebellious space | 01/29/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 02/01/16 |
| provocative insane national | 02/01/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 02/01/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 02/07/16 |
| Exhilarant Hilarious Step-uncle's House Headpube | 02/09/16 |
| canary point | 02/09/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 02/20/16 |
| Charismatic Alcoholic Sanctuary | 02/20/16 |
| Charcoal bearded rigor | 02/24/16 |
| Chartreuse Gaped Quadroon University | 02/24/16 |
| Beady-eyed base boltzmann | 02/27/16 |
| Flushed fluffy area faggotry | 03/09/16 |
| Wild deranged liquid oxygen indian lodge | 03/15/16 |
| aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch | 03/15/16 |
| Concupiscible Messiness | 03/16/16 |
| Demanding duck-like athletic conference | 02/24/16 |
| Dead Gay Depressive Generalized Bond | 02/24/16 |
| Concupiscible Messiness | 07/21/16 |
| Yellow stain | 02/24/16 |
| aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch | 02/27/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/02/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/04/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/09/16 |
| Exhilarant Hilarious Step-uncle's House Headpube | 03/09/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/15/16 |
| Charcoal bearded rigor | 03/15/16 |
| boyish gaping really tough guy | 03/15/16 |
| garnet learning disabled multi-billionaire | 03/15/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/16/16 |
| Brass dopamine mental disorder | 03/16/16 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 03/23/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/23/16 |
| bright vivacious travel guidebook wagecucks | 03/26/16 |
| Mischievous mad-dog skullcap | 03/26/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/26/16 |
| shimmering school | 03/28/16 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 03/28/16 |
| primrose locale | 03/28/16 |
| Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat | 08/12/16 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 11/05/18 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/28/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/29/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 03/29/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 03/29/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/29/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/29/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 04/01/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 04/04/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 04/15/16 |
| tantric old irish cottage | 04/15/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 04/19/16 |
| Startling heaven telephone | 04/20/16 |
| Blue Stage Clown | 04/20/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 04/24/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 04/25/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 04/26/16 |
| Haunting Preventive Strike Foreskin | 04/26/16 |
| Marvelous Location | 04/30/16 |
| seedy whorehouse indirect expression | 05/01/16 |
| seedy whorehouse indirect expression | 11/07/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/02/16 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 05/02/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/03/16 |
| narrow-minded coiffed mediation hall | 05/03/16 |
| titillating ticket booth private investor | 05/03/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/04/16 |
| exciting plaza | 05/04/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/05/16 |
| idiotic odious useless brakes | 05/05/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 05/05/16 |
| Dead Gay Depressive Generalized Bond | 05/05/16 |
| Walnut big associate | 05/18/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/18/16 |
| Charcoal bearded rigor | 05/18/16 |
| Walnut big associate | 05/18/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 05/29/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 06/20/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 06/29/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 07/14/16 |
| Lilac Immigrant Parlor | 07/15/16 |
| Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat | 07/15/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 07/17/16 |
| exciting plaza | 07/17/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 07/21/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 07/22/16 |
| slippery costumed filthpig | 07/22/16 |
| useless vigorous deer antler stead | 07/23/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 07/24/16 |
| ocher spectacular volcanic crater | 07/25/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 07/25/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 07/27/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 08/05/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 08/09/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 08/12/16 |
| exciting plaza | 08/12/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 08/12/16 |
| Clear arousing cuckold french chef | 08/12/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 08/30/16 |
| exciting plaza | 08/30/16 |
| exciting plaza | 09/06/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 09/13/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 09/14/16 |
| Avocado New Version Main People | 09/14/16 |
| Appetizing Patrolman Range | 09/15/16 |
| Multi-colored gaming laptop organic girlfriend | 09/15/16 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 09/15/16 |
| crimson faggot firefighter piazza | 09/15/16 |
| Mauve Wonderful House Hominid | 09/15/16 |
| Excitant jap internal respiration | 09/19/16 |
| Excitant jap internal respiration | 09/19/16 |
| exciting plaza | 09/27/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 09/24/16 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 09/27/16 |
| exciting plaza | 09/27/16 |
| Brass dopamine mental disorder | 09/27/16 |
| chocolate passionate casino | 10/08/16 |
| Vermilion talented institution | 07/29/24 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 09/28/16 |
| Avocado New Version Main People | 09/28/16 |
| exciting plaza | 09/28/16 |
| Blue Stage Clown | 09/28/16 |
| tantric old irish cottage | 09/28/16 |
| impressive deep stage | 10/08/16 |
| exciting plaza | 10/09/16 |
| dun orchestra pit | 10/09/16 |
| exciting plaza | 10/09/16 |
| Magenta Stubborn Factory Reset Button Sex Offender | 10/09/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 10/10/16 |
| ocher spectacular volcanic crater | 10/30/16 |
| Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat | 11/01/16 |
| crimson faggot firefighter piazza | 11/01/16 |
| Lemon hell hunting ground | 11/02/16 |
| hideous fragrant twinkling uncleanness senate | 11/02/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 11/07/16 |
| Sable histrionic school cafeteria | 11/08/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 11/08/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/08/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 11/08/16 |
| adventurous boiling water | 11/08/16 |
| aqua glittery abode friendly grandma | 11/08/16 |
| provocative insane national | 11/08/16 |
| Excitant jap internal respiration | 11/08/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/08/16 |
| dashing pea-brained resort elastic band | 11/09/16 |
| Appetizing Patrolman Range | 11/09/16 |
| Bateful library water buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| crimson faggot firefighter piazza | 11/09/16 |
| dashing pea-brained resort elastic band | 11/09/16 |
| ocher spectacular volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| idiotic odious useless brakes | 11/09/16 |
| Disturbing locus | 12/03/16 |
| smoky chapel macaca | 12/07/16 |
| Infuriating cordovan trailer park international law enforcement agency | 12/17/16 |
| Racy Blood Rage Hospital | 10/11/24 |
| Blathering Olive Famous Landscape Painting Rehab | 11/09/16 |
| 180 Cobalt Corner Masturbator | 11/09/16 |
| pungent pocket flask | 11/09/16 |
| drab curious center idea he suggested | 11/09/16 |
| Disturbing locus | 11/09/16 |
| Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Walnut big associate | 11/09/16 |
| exciting plaza | 11/09/16 |
| Bronze cuckoldry | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Mentally impaired striped hyena shitlib | 11/09/16 |
| Gold dog poop | 11/09/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/09/16 |
| Trip property background story | 11/09/16 |
| Medicated bawdyhouse knife | 11/10/16 |
| Translucent diverse theater genital piercing | 11/10/16 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 11/10/16 |
| galvanic spot | 11/10/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/10/16 |
| bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set | 11/10/16 |
| Charismatic Alcoholic Sanctuary | 11/10/16 |
| Excitant jap internal respiration | 11/14/16 |
| Stirring insecure business firm | 11/14/16 |
| cracking buff hairy legs | 12/04/16 |
| Infuriating cordovan trailer park international law enforcement agency | 12/17/16 |
| Racy Blood Rage Hospital | 10/11/24 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/25/16 |
| Mewling skinny woman | 12/03/16 |
| Magenta Stubborn Factory Reset Button Sex Offender | 12/04/16 |
| effete swashbuckling windowlicker | 12/07/16 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 12/07/16 |
| Mewling skinny woman | 12/07/16 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 01/02/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/02/17 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 01/02/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/02/17 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 03/03/20 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 01/02/17 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 01/16/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/20/17 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 01/20/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/23/17 |
| impressive deep stage | 01/23/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/23/17 |
| balding candlestick maker | 01/23/17 |
| impressive deep stage | 01/23/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/23/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/25/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 01/26/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 02/06/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 02/13/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 02/27/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 05/03/17 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/03/17 |
| Lime low-t nibblets | 09/21/17 |
| aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch | 01/23/17 |
| crimson faggot firefighter piazza | 02/27/17 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 03/22/17 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 04/17/17 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/08/17 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 06/20/17 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 08/10/17 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 10/15/17 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 10/15/17 |
| Hairraiser splenetic pit boistinker | 10/15/17 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/06/17 |
| Rusted dilemma | 11/06/17 |
| hairless community account | 11/08/17 |
| yapping regret nowag | 11/08/17 |
| Carmine Laser Beams Electric Furnace | 11/13/17 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 12/18/17 |
| exciting plaza | 12/18/17 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 12/18/17 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 01/30/18 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 06/01/18 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 07/18/18 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 07/19/18 |
| Mauve Wonderful House Hominid | 09/20/18 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 09/25/18 |
| primrose locale | 10/06/18 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 10/06/18 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 10/25/18 |
| Multi-colored gaming laptop organic girlfriend | 10/25/18 |
| sickened cocky cruise ship | 11/05/18 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 11/05/18 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 11/05/18 |
| slimy very tactful nursing home becky | 11/05/18 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 01/08/19 |
| twinkling home | 02/23/19 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 03/13/19 |
| sickened cocky cruise ship | 06/24/19 |
| carnelian internet-worthy garrison black woman | 06/24/19 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 11/18/19 |
| crimson faggot firefighter piazza | 02/12/20 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 02/12/20 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 03/24/20 |
| apoplectic crackhouse | 03/24/20 |
| Lilac Immigrant Parlor | 04/04/20 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 04/26/20 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 05/13/20 |
| Lilac Immigrant Parlor | 06/05/20 |
| big-titted sepia ceo | 06/05/20 |
| Lilac Immigrant Parlor | 09/09/20 |
| crimson faggot firefighter piazza | 09/09/20 |
| Submissive gas station half-breed | 09/09/20 |
| shivering abusive incel | 09/12/20 |
| zombie-like erotic son of senegal | 09/24/20 |
| carnelian internet-worthy garrison black woman | 10/09/20 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 10/10/20 |
| Kink-friendly alpha office | 10/22/20 |
| Disturbing locus | 10/22/20 |
| Lascivious Church Double Fault | 10/22/20 |
| Lascivious Church Double Fault | 10/22/20 |
| azn | 03/23/22 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 10/27/20 |
| Harsh chestnut brethren | 10/27/20 |
| carnelian internet-worthy garrison black woman | 10/30/20 |
| embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action | 11/03/20 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/22/22 |
| massive crawly address national security agency | 03/23/22 |
| pearly prole people who are hurt | 03/23/22 |
| public bath | 03/23/22 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 07/25/22 |
| Submissive gas station half-breed | 07/25/22 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 10/23/22 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 11/16/22 |
| Cerebral Weed Whacker | 04/25/23 |
| Walnut big associate | 04/25/23 |
| zombie-like erotic son of senegal | 04/29/23 |
| Vermilion talented institution | 05/28/23 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 02/22/24 |
| zombie-like erotic son of senegal | 02/23/24 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/23/24 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 08/26/24 |
| zombie-like erotic son of senegal | 09/13/24 |
| Submissive gas station half-breed | 09/13/24 |
| zombie-like erotic son of senegal | 10/18/24 |
| Racy Blood Rage Hospital | 10/11/24 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 11/06/24 |
| idiotic odious useless brakes | 03/04/25 |
| idiotic odious useless brakes | 03/04/25 |
| Mauve Wonderful House Hominid | 03/04/25 |
| Racy Blood Rage Hospital | 03/04/25 |
| overrated goyim | 03/04/25 |
| Doobsian Therapy | 03/05/25 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/07/25 |
| tripping coffee pot | 03/07/25 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/08/25 |
| crusty philosopher-king partner | 03/08/25 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 03/08/25 |
| aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch | 02/18/26 |
| unhinged wrinkle | 05/15/26 |
| tank | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Heady theater stage ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Harsh chestnut brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Dark kitty love of her life 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: claret mad cow disease round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: free-loading principal's office "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Submissive gas station half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: primrose locale 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Trip property background story Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Frozen cream lodge puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: razzmatazz indigo station gay wizard FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Brass dopamine mental disorder Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: flatulent vibrant kitchen death wish Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: supple scourge upon the earth parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Anal Razzle-dazzle Menage Legend Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Underhanded pistol Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: razzle marketing idea Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: High-end sick box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: bearded shaky codepig place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Soul-stirring Talking Native 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: supple scourge upon the earth parlour November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Milky Aromatic Sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: sickened cocky cruise ship Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: smoky chapel macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Walnut big associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Mind-boggling Market lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: emerald hot site keepsake machete March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: electric pink psychic meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Avocado New Version Main People (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: angry grizzly trump supporter lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: bright vivacious travel guidebook wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: idiotic odious useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Mint ratface Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Brilliant party of the first part dingle berry Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Brass dopamine mental disorder OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Brass dopamine mental disorder And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Flushed fluffy area faggotry 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Concupiscible Messiness fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Violet Offensive Persian Field I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: hideous fragrant twinkling uncleanness senate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Ivory Thirsty Yarmulke Fanboi February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Motley ruby tanning salon potus You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: shimmering school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: sickened cocky cruise ship Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Infuriating cordovan trailer park international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Charcoal bearded rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Laughsome stag film jew Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Lascivious Church Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Irradiated light lay roast beef This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Plum Soggy Church Building Kitty Cat 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Hateful Contagious Haunted Graveyard Sound Barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Drunken temple gunner Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: aphrodisiac mexican state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Harsh chestnut brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Medicated bawdyhouse knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: razzle marketing idea flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: sickened cocky cruise ship Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: aphrodisiac mexican state From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Exhilarant Hilarious Step-uncle's House Headpube 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Stimulating crystalline shrine queen of the night An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: violent comical den feces 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Stimulating crystalline shrine queen of the night I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Harsh chestnut brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Stimulating crystalline shrine queen of the night Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: violent comical den feces No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: exciting plaza 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: aphrodisiac mexican state http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Floppy disgusting dysfunction giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: aphrodisiac mexican state looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Harsh chestnut brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30307876) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30353572) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: seedy whorehouse indirect expression Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: seedy whorehouse indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: narrow-minded coiffed mediation hall holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: titillating ticket booth private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: exciting plaza 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: idiotic odious useless brakes Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Dead Gay Depressive Generalized Bond Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Walnut big associate This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Charcoal bearded rigor In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Walnut big associate cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Lilac Immigrant Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: exciting plaza 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: slippery costumed filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: useless vigorous deer antler stead Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: ocher spectacular volcanic crater Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: exciting plaza holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Clear arousing cuckold french chef LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: exciting plaza 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: exciting plaza lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Avocado New Version Main People Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Appetizing Patrolman Range September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Multi-colored gaming laptop organic girlfriend September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: crimson faggot firefighter piazza XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Mauve Wonderful House Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Excitant jap internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Excitant jap internal respiration The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: exciting plaza let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: exciting plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Brass dopamine mental disorder This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: chocolate passionate casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Vermilion talented institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Avocado New Version Main People (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: exciting plaza 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Blue Stage Clown This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: tantric old irish cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: impressive deep stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: exciting plaza hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: dun orchestra pit Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: exciting plaza doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Magenta Stubborn Factory Reset Button Sex Offender half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: ocher spectacular volcanic crater close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: crimson faggot firefighter piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Lemon hell hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: hideous fragrant twinkling uncleanness senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Sable histrionic school cafeteria You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: adventurous boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: aqua glittery abode friendly grandma Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: provocative insane national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Excitant jap internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: dashing pea-brained resort elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Appetizing Patrolman Range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Bateful library water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: crimson faggot firefighter piazza GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: dashing pea-brained resort elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: ocher spectacular volcanic crater it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: idiotic odious useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Disturbing locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: smoky chapel macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Infuriating cordovan trailer park international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Racy Blood Rage Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Blathering Olive Famous Landscape Painting Rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: 180 Cobalt Corner Masturbator Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: pungent pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: drab curious center idea he suggested 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Disturbing locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Rambunctious brindle forum toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Walnut big associate this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: exciting plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Bronze cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Mentally impaired striped hyena shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Gold dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Trip property background story you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Medicated bawdyhouse knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Translucent diverse theater genital piercing Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: galvanic spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: bat shit crazy sneaky criminal set ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Charismatic Alcoholic Sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Excitant jap internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Stirring insecure business firm They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: cracking buff hairy legs Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Infuriating cordovan trailer park international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Racy Blood Rage Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Mewling skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Magenta Stubborn Factory Reset Button Sex Offender GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: effete swashbuckling windowlicker https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Mewling skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: impressive deep stage TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: balding candlestick maker I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: impressive deep stage it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Lime low-t nibblets https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: crimson faggot firefighter piazza One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Harsh chestnut brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Hairraiser splenetic pit boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Rusted dilemma credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: hairless community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: yapping regret nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Carmine Laser Beams Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: exciting plaza Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Mauve Wonderful House Hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: primrose locale It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Multi-colored gaming laptop organic girlfriend Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: sickened cocky cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Harsh chestnut brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: slimy very tactful nursing home becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: twinkling home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: sickened cocky cruise ship There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: carnelian internet-worthy garrison black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: crimson faggot firefighter piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: apoplectic crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Lilac Immigrant Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Lilac Immigrant Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: big-titted sepia ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Lilac Immigrant Parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: crimson faggot firefighter piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Submissive gas station half-breed Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: shivering abusive incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: zombie-like erotic son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: carnelian internet-worthy garrison black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Kink-friendly alpha office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Disturbing locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Lascivious Church Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Lascivious Church Double Fault https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Harsh chestnut brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: carnelian internet-worthy garrison black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone thriller theatre affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: massive crawly address national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: pearly prole people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: public bath 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Submissive gas station half-breed A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Cerebral Weed Whacker https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Walnut big associate why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: zombie-like erotic son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Vermilion talented institution FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: zombie-like erotic son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: zombie-like erotic son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Submissive gas station half-breed One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: zombie-like erotic son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Racy Blood Rage Hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: idiotic odious useless brakes 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: idiotic odious useless brakes https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Mauve Wonderful House Hominid Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Racy Blood Rage Hospital The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: overrated goyim He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Doobsian Therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: tripping coffee pot 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: unhinged wrinkle "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: crusty philosopher-king partner Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: aquamarine aggressive jewess brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310734#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: unhinged wrinkle ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: tank i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |