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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| trip mother parlor | 12/10/15 |
| big hall | 12/12/15 |
| trip mother parlor | 01/02/17 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 01/06/16 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 01/06/16 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 06/05/16 |
| Contagious geriatric pit double fault | 03/26/16 |
| vivacious cuckold new version | 01/02/17 |
| Talking address ladyboy | 10/25/18 |
| Haunting main people | 12/10/15 |
| effete lascivious point degenerate | 12/10/15 |
| tan mediation crackhouse | 12/10/15 |
| floppy casino ape | 12/10/15 |
| insecure cheese-eating dilemma sex offender | 12/15/15 |
| cerebral garrison really tough guy | 12/10/15 |
| Shaky duck-like depressive | 12/10/15 |
| navy private investor | 12/10/15 |
| magical 180 water buffalo national | 12/11/15 |
| domesticated roommate potus | 12/12/15 |
| passionate bawdyhouse foreskin | 12/16/15 |
| Territorial internet-worthy dog poop | 01/04/16 |
| Hairless boyish senate knife | 11/09/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 12/11/15 |
| mint coiffed business firm | 12/11/15 |
| dashing topaz stage cumskin | 12/11/15 |
| magical 180 water buffalo national | 12/11/15 |
| Beady-eyed Sick Clown | 12/12/15 |
| Purple Comical Market Rigpig | 01/25/16 |
| Cerise Den Crotch | 11/10/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 12/12/15 |
| Crawly Center Legal Warrant | 12/12/15 |
| Plum hot boiling water corner | 12/12/15 |
| adventurous seedy locale international law enforcement agency | 12/12/15 |
| Odious set twinkling uncleanness | 12/15/15 |
| clear organic girlfriend party of the first part | 12/21/15 |
| Vigorous embarrassed to the bone deer antler lay | 12/12/15 |
| Onyx beta stage | 12/12/15 |
| diverse home | 12/12/15 |
| nighttime provocative menage juggernaut | 12/12/15 |
| razzle-dazzle kitty cruise ship | 12/12/15 |
| Hyperventilating scarlet persian | 12/12/15 |
| Shaky duck-like depressive | 12/15/15 |
| Shaky duck-like depressive | 12/16/15 |
| heady bisexual ticket booth travel guidebook | 12/15/15 |
| Galvanic pea-brained factory reset button | 12/15/15 |
| Cracking University | 12/15/15 |
| chestnut excitant death wish faggotry | 12/15/15 |
| unhinged incel location | 12/15/15 |
| Deranged office cuckoldry | 12/15/15 |
| trip mother parlor | 12/15/15 |
| trip mother parlor | 12/15/15 |
| trip mother parlor | 12/15/15 |
| trip mother parlor | 12/15/15 |
| trip mother parlor | 12/15/15 |
| Dull multi-colored chapel cuck | 01/05/16 |
| Purple Comical Market Rigpig | 01/25/16 |
| Cocky metal lodge alpha | 12/17/16 |
| Blathering Tattoo Nowag | 05/18/16 |
| mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease | 08/12/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/09/16 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 11/09/16 |
| Saffron school candlestick maker | 11/09/16 |
| Bateful Theater Stage Coffee Pot | 10/22/20 |
| jade hyperactive spot striped hyena | 12/15/15 |
| aggressive stag film | 12/16/15 |
| pearly toilet seat keepsake machete | 12/16/15 |
| Marvelous Bespoke Brunch | 12/16/15 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 12/16/15 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 12/17/15 |
| Startling stirring locus | 12/18/15 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 01/06/16 |
| soul-stirring erotic selfie hospital | 12/18/15 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 12/21/15 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 12/21/15 |
| clear organic girlfriend party of the first part | 12/21/15 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 12/30/15 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 12/30/15 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 01/04/16 |
| Territorial internet-worthy dog poop | 01/04/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 01/05/16 |
| Purple Comical Market Rigpig | 01/25/16 |
| Startling stirring locus | 01/05/16 |
| chocolate irradiated site | 01/05/16 |
| Supple low-t temple sweet tailpipe | 01/05/16 |
| Glittery kitchen halford | 01/05/16 |
| ungodly titillating marketing idea shitlib | 01/05/16 |
| Glittery kitchen halford | 01/05/16 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 01/06/16 |
| Glittery kitchen halford | 01/06/16 |
| ungodly titillating marketing idea shitlib | 01/05/16 |
| mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease | 01/06/16 |
| clear organic girlfriend party of the first part | 01/07/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 01/08/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 01/08/16 |
| clear organic girlfriend party of the first part | 01/08/16 |
| Startling stirring locus | 01/09/16 |
| clear organic girlfriend party of the first part | 01/10/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 01/18/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 01/19/16 |
| Startling stirring locus | 01/21/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 01/25/16 |
| concupiscible deep shrine blood rage | 01/25/16 |
| Purple Comical Market Rigpig | 01/25/16 |
| concupiscible deep shrine blood rage | 02/09/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 09/06/16 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 11/05/18 |
| Exciting free-loading hominid | 01/29/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 02/01/16 |
| chest-beating meetinghouse | 02/01/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 02/01/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 02/07/16 |
| chocolate irradiated site | 02/09/16 |
| translucent whorehouse friendly grandma | 02/09/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 02/20/16 |
| Amethyst laughsome public bath | 02/20/16 |
| Blathering Tattoo Nowag | 02/24/16 |
| Cobalt swashbuckling idea he suggested theatre | 02/24/16 |
| slap-happy talented masturbator gaming laptop | 02/27/16 |
| heady bisexual ticket booth travel guidebook | 03/09/16 |
| Aromatic Bull Headed Milk Parlour | 03/15/16 |
| tan mediation crackhouse | 03/15/16 |
| Galvanic pea-brained factory reset button | 03/16/16 |
| Razzmatazz Twinkling Haunted Graveyard | 02/24/16 |
| slippery racy quadroon | 02/24/16 |
| Galvanic pea-brained factory reset button | 07/21/16 |
| orange adulterous filthpig | 02/24/16 |
| tan mediation crackhouse | 02/27/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/02/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/04/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/09/16 |
| chocolate irradiated site | 03/09/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/15/16 |
| Blathering Tattoo Nowag | 03/15/16 |
| Fiercely-loyal self-centered messiness doctorate | 03/15/16 |
| Well-lubricated flushed orchestra pit son of senegal | 03/15/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/16/16 |
| Shaky duck-like depressive | 03/16/16 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 03/23/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/23/16 |
| diverse home | 03/26/16 |
| drab frum indian lodge antidepressant drug | 03/26/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/26/16 |
| Dull multi-colored chapel cuck | 03/28/16 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 03/28/16 |
| effete lascivious point degenerate | 03/28/16 |
| mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease | 08/12/16 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 11/05/18 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/28/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/29/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 03/29/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 03/29/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/29/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/29/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 04/01/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 04/04/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 04/15/16 |
| cordovan thriller library lettuce | 04/15/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 04/19/16 |
| glassy high-end mood | 04/20/16 |
| Angry Forum | 04/20/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 04/24/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 04/25/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 04/26/16 |
| razzle ceo | 04/26/16 |
| charismatic maize range | 04/30/16 |
| Wonderful chartreuse rehab feces | 05/01/16 |
| Wonderful chartreuse rehab feces | 11/07/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/02/16 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 05/02/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/03/16 |
| Aquamarine box office | 05/03/16 |
| Irate macaca station | 05/03/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/04/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 05/04/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/05/16 |
| nighttime provocative menage juggernaut | 05/05/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 05/05/16 |
| slippery racy quadroon | 05/05/16 |
| Crawly Center Legal Warrant | 05/18/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/18/16 |
| Blathering Tattoo Nowag | 05/18/16 |
| Crawly Center Legal Warrant | 05/18/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 05/29/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 06/20/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 06/29/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 07/14/16 |
| Curious jewess gay wizard | 07/15/16 |
| mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease | 07/15/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 07/17/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 07/17/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 07/21/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 07/22/16 |
| bistre impertinent prole reading party | 07/22/16 |
| mustard bipolar property | 07/23/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 07/24/16 |
| rusted old irish cottage | 07/25/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 07/25/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 07/27/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 08/05/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 08/09/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 08/12/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 08/12/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 08/12/16 |
| Peach Church Building Dingle Berry | 08/12/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 08/30/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 08/30/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 09/06/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 09/13/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 09/14/16 |
| Vigorous embarrassed to the bone deer antler lay | 09/14/16 |
| Arousing Walnut Native Black Woman | 09/15/16 |
| Magenta mischievous tank brethren | 09/15/16 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 09/15/16 |
| Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike | 09/15/16 |
| spectacular green half-breed | 09/15/16 |
| mind-boggling puppy french chef | 09/19/16 |
| mind-boggling puppy french chef | 09/19/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 09/27/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 09/24/16 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 09/27/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 09/27/16 |
| Shaky duck-like depressive | 09/27/16 |
| cruel-hearted charcoal school cafeteria | 10/08/16 |
| vibrant misunderstood field | 07/29/24 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 09/28/16 |
| Vigorous embarrassed to the bone deer antler lay | 09/28/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 09/28/16 |
| Angry Forum | 09/28/16 |
| cordovan thriller library lettuce | 09/28/16 |
| sadistic underhanded state | 10/08/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 10/09/16 |
| fragrant base | 10/09/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 10/09/16 |
| fuchsia abnormal genital piercing goyim | 10/09/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 10/10/16 |
| rusted old irish cottage | 10/30/16 |
| mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease | 11/01/16 |
| Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike | 11/01/16 |
| Insanely Creepy Exhilarant Area | 11/02/16 |
| chestnut excitant death wish faggotry | 11/02/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 11/07/16 |
| Ocher nibblets | 11/08/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 11/08/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/08/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 11/08/16 |
| narrow-minded flirting institution | 11/08/16 |
| Hairraiser principal's office jap | 11/08/16 |
| chest-beating meetinghouse | 11/08/16 |
| mind-boggling puppy french chef | 11/08/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/08/16 |
| Sienna sinister gas station liquid oxygen | 11/09/16 |
| Arousing Walnut Native Black Woman | 11/09/16 |
| Opaque space | 11/09/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/09/16 |
| Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike | 11/09/16 |
| Sienna sinister gas station liquid oxygen | 11/09/16 |
| rusted old irish cottage | 11/09/16 |
| nighttime provocative menage juggernaut | 11/09/16 |
| Soggy hell internal respiration | 12/03/16 |
| Cerise Den Crotch | 12/07/16 |
| Cocky metal lodge alpha | 12/17/16 |
| Stimulating Snowy Theater | 10/11/24 |
| bossy histrionic background story electric furnace | 11/09/16 |
| lime turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| violet wild sound barrier | 11/09/16 |
| Federal pungent mexican tanning salon | 11/09/16 |
| Soggy hell internal respiration | 11/09/16 |
| mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease | 11/09/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/09/16 |
| Crawly Center Legal Warrant | 11/09/16 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 11/09/16 |
| Crystalline Dragon | 11/09/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/09/16 |
| Canary yapping sandwich psychic | 11/09/16 |
| appetizing nursing home trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/09/16 |
| floppy casino ape | 11/09/16 |
| soul-stirring erotic selfie hospital | 11/10/16 |
| concupiscible deep shrine blood rage | 11/10/16 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 11/10/16 |
| aphrodisiac sanctuary kitty cat | 11/10/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/10/16 |
| Electric roast beef dopamine | 11/10/16 |
| Amethyst laughsome public bath | 11/10/16 |
| mind-boggling puppy french chef | 11/14/16 |
| Black Thirsty National Security Agency | 11/14/16 |
| massive round eye house | 12/04/16 |
| Cocky metal lodge alpha | 12/17/16 |
| Stimulating Snowy Theater | 10/11/24 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/25/16 |
| swollen emerald dysfunction | 12/03/16 |
| fuchsia abnormal genital piercing goyim | 12/04/16 |
| amber resort wrinkle | 12/07/16 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 12/07/16 |
| swollen emerald dysfunction | 12/07/16 |
| trip mother parlor | 01/02/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/02/17 |
| trip mother parlor | 01/02/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/02/17 |
| trip mother parlor | 03/03/20 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 01/02/17 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 01/16/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/20/17 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 01/20/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/23/17 |
| sadistic underhanded state | 01/23/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/23/17 |
| motley stead | 01/23/17 |
| sadistic underhanded state | 01/23/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/23/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/25/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 01/26/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 02/06/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 02/13/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 02/27/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 05/03/17 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/03/17 |
| useless bat shit crazy hissy fit | 09/21/17 |
| tan mediation crackhouse | 01/23/17 |
| Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike | 02/27/17 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 03/22/17 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 04/17/17 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/08/17 |
| trip mother parlor | 06/20/17 |
| trip mother parlor | 08/10/17 |
| trip mother parlor | 10/15/17 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 10/15/17 |
| Godawful Scourge Upon The Earth Chad | 10/15/17 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/06/17 |
| hairy legs heaven | 11/06/17 |
| henna church | 11/08/17 |
| kink-friendly karate newt | 11/08/17 |
| lavender famous landscape painting | 11/13/17 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 12/18/17 |
| White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder | 12/18/17 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 12/18/17 |
| trip mother parlor | 01/30/18 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 06/01/18 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 07/18/18 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 07/19/18 |
| spectacular green half-breed | 09/20/18 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 09/25/18 |
| effete lascivious point degenerate | 10/06/18 |
| trip mother parlor | 10/06/18 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 10/25/18 |
| Magenta mischievous tank brethren | 10/25/18 |
| Purple Comical Market Rigpig | 11/05/18 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 11/05/18 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 11/05/18 |
| cyan unholy gunner | 11/05/18 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 01/08/19 |
| Pale abode | 02/23/19 |
| trip mother parlor | 03/13/19 |
| Purple Comical Market Rigpig | 06/24/19 |
| dun gaped goal in life | 06/24/19 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 11/18/19 |
| Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike | 02/12/20 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 02/12/20 |
| trip mother parlor | 03/24/20 |
| Wine awkward trailer park telephone | 03/24/20 |
| Curious jewess gay wizard | 04/04/20 |
| trip mother parlor | 04/26/20 |
| trip mother parlor | 05/13/20 |
| Curious jewess gay wizard | 06/05/20 |
| Pervert | 06/05/20 |
| Curious jewess gay wizard | 09/09/20 |
| Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike | 09/09/20 |
| Haunting main people | 09/09/20 |
| 09/12/20 |
| brass | 09/24/20 |
| dun gaped goal in life | 10/09/20 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 10/10/20 |
| frozen laser beams | 10/22/20 |
| Soggy hell internal respiration | 10/22/20 |
| Bateful Theater Stage Coffee Pot | 10/22/20 |
| Bateful Theater Stage Coffee Pot | 10/22/20 |
| Citrine rigor | 03/23/22 |
| trip mother parlor | 10/27/20 |
| ultramarine useless brakes | 10/27/20 |
| dun gaped goal in life | 10/30/20 |
| Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap | 11/03/20 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/22/22 |
| Silver legend | 03/23/22 |
| Outnumbered People Who Are Hurt | 03/23/22 |
| lake personal credit line stain | 03/23/22 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 07/25/22 |
| Haunting main people | 07/25/22 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 10/23/22 |
| trip mother parlor | 11/16/22 |
| trip mother parlor | 04/25/23 |
| Crawly Center Legal Warrant | 04/25/23 |
| brass | 04/29/23 |
| vibrant misunderstood field | 05/28/23 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 02/22/24 |
| brass | 02/23/24 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 05/23/24 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 08/26/24 |
| brass | 09/13/24 |
| Haunting main people | 09/13/24 |
| brass | 10/18/24 |
| Stimulating Snowy Theater | 10/11/24 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 11/06/24 |
| nighttime provocative menage juggernaut | 03/04/25 |
| nighttime provocative menage juggernaut | 03/04/25 |
| spectacular green half-breed | 03/04/25 |
| Stimulating Snowy Theater | 03/04/25 |
| big-titted mauve | 03/04/25 |
| Spruce athletic conference | 03/05/25 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/07/25 |
| Cowardly violent | 03/07/25 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/08/25 |
| rose volcanic crater | 03/08/25 |
| alcoholic boltzmann | 03/08/25 |
| incel adams | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: trip mother parlor December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: big hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: ultramarine useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: cyan unholy gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: cyan unholy gunner another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Contagious geriatric pit double fault 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30144195) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Talking address ladyboy "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Haunting main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: effete lascivious point degenerate 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: tan mediation crackhouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: floppy casino ape Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: insecure cheese-eating dilemma sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: cerebral garrison really tough guy FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Shaky duck-like depressive Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: navy private investor Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: magical 180 water buffalo national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: domesticated roommate potus Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: passionate bawdyhouse foreskin Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Territorial internet-worthy dog poop Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Hairless boyish senate knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: mint coiffed business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: dashing topaz stage cumskin 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: magical 180 water buffalo national November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Beady-eyed Sick Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Purple Comical Market Rigpig Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Cerise Den Crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Crawly Center Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Plum hot boiling water corner lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: adventurous seedy locale international law enforcement agency March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Odious set twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: clear organic girlfriend party of the first part 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Vigorous embarrassed to the bone deer antler lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Onyx beta stage lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: diverse home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: nighttime provocative menage juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: razzle-dazzle kitty cruise ship Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Hyperventilating scarlet persian Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Shaky duck-like depressive OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Shaky duck-like depressive And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: heady bisexual ticket booth travel guidebook 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Galvanic pea-brained factory reset button fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Cracking University I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: chestnut excitant death wish faggotry 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: unhinged incel location February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Deranged office cuckoldry You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: trip mother parlor Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: trip mother parlor http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: trip mother parlor http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: trip mother parlor http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: trip mother parlor http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Dull multi-colored chapel cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Purple Comical Market Rigpig Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Cocky metal lodge alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Blathering Tattoo Nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: trip mother parlor http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Saffron school candlestick maker Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Bateful Theater Stage Coffee Pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: jade hyperactive spot striped hyena This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: aggressive stag film 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: pearly toilet seat keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Marvelous Bespoke Brunch Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Startling stirring locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: ultramarine useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: soul-stirring erotic selfie hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: clear organic girlfriend party of the first part 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Territorial internet-worthy dog poop flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: trip mother parlor ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Purple Comical Market Rigpig Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Startling stirring locus From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: chocolate irradiated site 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Supple low-t temple sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Glittery kitchen halford An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: ungodly titillating marketing idea shitlib 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Glittery kitchen halford I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: ultramarine useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Glittery kitchen halford Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: ungodly titillating marketing idea shitlib No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: clear organic girlfriend party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: clear organic girlfriend party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Startling stirring locus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: clear organic girlfriend party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Startling stirring locus looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Wonderful chartreuse rehab feces Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Irate macaca station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: nighttime provocative menage juggernaut Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: trip mother parlor LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: slippery racy quadroon Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Crawly Center Legal Warrant This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Blathering Tattoo Nowag In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Crawly Center Legal Warrant cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: trip mother parlor lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Curious jewess gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: bistre impertinent prole reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: mustard bipolar property Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: rusted old irish cottage Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: trip mother parlor Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: trip mother parlor THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: trip mother parlor I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Peach Church Building Dingle Berry LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: trip mother parlor THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Vigorous embarrassed to the bone deer antler lay Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Arousing Walnut Native Black Woman September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Magenta mischievous tank brethren September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: cyan unholy gunner god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: spectacular green half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: mind-boggling puppy french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: mind-boggling puppy french chef The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Shaky duck-like depressive This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: cruel-hearted charcoal school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: vibrant misunderstood field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Vigorous embarrassed to the bone deer antler lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Angry Forum This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: cordovan thriller library lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: sadistic underhanded state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: fragrant base Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: fuchsia abnormal genital piercing goyim half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: rusted old irish cottage close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Insanely Creepy Exhilarant Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: chestnut excitant death wish faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Ocher nibblets You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: trip mother parlor ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: narrow-minded flirting institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Hairraiser principal's office jap Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: chest-beating meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: mind-boggling puppy french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Sienna sinister gas station liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Arousing Walnut Native Black Woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Opaque space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Sienna sinister gas station liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: rusted old irish cottage it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: nighttime provocative menage juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Soggy hell internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Cerise Den Crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cocky metal lodge alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Stimulating Snowy Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: bossy histrionic background story electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: lime turdskin Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: violet wild sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Federal pungent mexican tanning salon 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Soggy hell internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: mildly autistic greedy piazza mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Crawly Center Legal Warrant this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Crystalline Dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Canary yapping sandwich psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: appetizing nursing home trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: trip mother parlor November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: floppy casino ape you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: soul-stirring erotic selfie hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: concupiscible deep shrine blood rage Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: cyan unholy gunner bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: aphrodisiac sanctuary kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: trip mother parlor sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Electric roast beef dopamine ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Amethyst laughsome public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: mind-boggling puppy french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Black Thirsty National Security Agency They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: massive round eye house Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Cocky metal lodge alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Stimulating Snowy Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: swollen emerald dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: fuchsia abnormal genital piercing goyim GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: amber resort wrinkle https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: cyan unholy gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: swollen emerald dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: trip mother parlor ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: cyan unholy gunner truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: sadistic underhanded state TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: motley stead I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: sadistic underhanded state it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: useless bat shit crazy hissy fit https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: tan mediation crackhouse this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: ultramarine useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: trip mother parlor What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: trip mother parlor https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Godawful Scourge Upon The Earth Chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: hairy legs heaven credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: henna church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: kink-friendly karate newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: lavender famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: White very tactful hunting ground mental disorder Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: cyan unholy gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: spectacular green half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: effete lascivious point degenerate It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: trip mother parlor lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: cyan unholy gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Magenta mischievous tank brethren Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Purple Comical Market Rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: cyan unholy gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: ultramarine useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: cyan unholy gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Pale abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: trip mother parlor Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Purple Comical Market Rigpig There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: dun gaped goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Wine awkward trailer park telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Curious jewess gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: trip mother parlor https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Curious jewess gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Curious jewess gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Fluffy shimmering plaza preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Haunting main people Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: brass (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: dun gaped goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: frozen laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Soggy hell internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Bateful Theater Stage Coffee Pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Bateful Theater Stage Coffee Pot https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Citrine rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: trip mother parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: ultramarine useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: dun gaped goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Burgundy step-uncle's house mad-dog skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Silver legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Outnumbered People Who Are Hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: lake personal credit line stain 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Haunting main people A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: trip mother parlor Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: trip mother parlor https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Crawly Center Legal Warrant why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: brass (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: vibrant misunderstood field FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: brass (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: brass (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Haunting main people One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: brass (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Stimulating Snowy Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: nighttime provocative menage juggernaut 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: nighttime provocative menage juggernaut https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: spectacular green half-breed Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Stimulating Snowy Theater The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: big-titted mauve He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Spruce athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Cowardly violent 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: alcoholic boltzmann "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: rose volcanic crater Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: alcoholic boltzmann Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: incel adams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310751#49679495) |