The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/10/15 |
| marvelous bat shit crazy stead pocket flask | 12/12/15 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 01/02/17 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 01/06/16 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 01/06/16 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 06/05/16 |
| Big-titted police squad | 03/26/16 |
| Citrine frisky laser beams liquid oxygen | 01/02/17 |
| scarlet cruise ship | 10/25/18 |
| crusty multi-billionaire location | 12/10/15 |
| Titillating Goyim Pervert | 12/10/15 |
| magenta concupiscible place of business | 12/10/15 |
| Mewling alpha | 12/10/15 |
| Mind-boggling Disturbing Stain Newt | 12/15/15 |
| Purple home stock car | 12/10/15 |
| big idiotic doctorate | 12/10/15 |
| Federal very tactful idiot sanctuary | 12/10/15 |
| Pale Parlour Mad Cow Disease | 12/11/15 |
| Soul-stirring senate faggotry | 12/12/15 |
| Coral Den Nibblets | 12/16/15 |
| mint church sex offender | 01/04/16 |
| medicated mildly autistic deer antler | 11/09/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/11/15 |
| talented locus | 12/11/15 |
| Yapping Razzle Crackhouse | 12/11/15 |
| Pale Parlour Mad Cow Disease | 12/11/15 |
| Carnelian motley office ratface | 12/12/15 |
| Offensive clear hell legal warrant | 01/25/16 |
| black national | 11/10/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/12/15 |
| aqua selfie ceo | 12/12/15 |
| Indecent tank dysfunction | 12/12/15 |
| sepia rehab | 12/12/15 |
| Iridescent half-breed kitchen | 12/15/15 |
| Free-loading cream organic girlfriend | 12/21/15 |
| Fragrant dull pisswyrm stag film | 12/12/15 |
| curious ruddy library shitlib | 12/12/15 |
| translucent haunting theatre | 12/12/15 |
| Massive effete brunch headpube | 12/12/15 |
| mentally impaired tanning salon | 12/12/15 |
| Hyperactive Narrow-minded Circlehead | 12/12/15 |
| big idiotic doctorate | 12/15/15 |
| big idiotic doctorate | 12/16/15 |
| Doobsian Geriatric Native Travel Guidebook | 12/15/15 |
| Slimy wine french chef point | 12/15/15 |
| Garnet principal's office | 12/15/15 |
| navy embarrassed to the bone bawdyhouse | 12/15/15 |
| dashing hairless old irish cottage | 12/15/15 |
| hairraiser twinkling nowag | 12/15/15 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/15/15 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/15/15 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/15/15 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/15/15 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 12/15/15 |
| Rambunctious thriller main people pozpig | 01/05/16 |
| Offensive clear hell legal warrant | 01/25/16 |
| ungodly beta turdskin | 12/17/16 |
| Amber Sadistic Clown | 05/18/16 |
| jet university | 08/12/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 11/09/16 |
| chestnut site | 11/09/16 |
| buck-toothed jewess | 10/22/20 |
| Flickering philosopher-king dilemma | 12/15/15 |
| contagious persian shrine | 12/16/15 |
| high-end passionate lodge gay wizard | 12/16/15 |
| unholy elite parlor sound barrier | 12/16/15 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 12/16/15 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 12/17/15 |
| Turquoise provocative degenerate | 12/18/15 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 01/06/16 |
| bisexual floppy juggernaut box office | 12/18/15 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 12/21/15 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 12/21/15 |
| Free-loading cream organic girlfriend | 12/21/15 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 12/30/15 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 12/30/15 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 01/04/16 |
| mint church sex offender | 01/04/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 01/05/16 |
| Offensive clear hell legal warrant | 01/25/16 |
| Turquoise provocative degenerate | 01/05/16 |
| Blathering Electric Puppy Therapy | 01/05/16 |
| Sapphire church building bbw | 01/05/16 |
| spectacular indirect expression nursing home | 01/05/16 |
| Cruel-hearted legend base | 01/05/16 |
| spectacular indirect expression nursing home | 01/05/16 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 01/06/16 |
| spectacular indirect expression nursing home | 01/06/16 |
| Cruel-hearted legend base | 01/05/16 |
| jet university | 01/06/16 |
| Free-loading cream organic girlfriend | 01/07/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 01/08/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 01/08/16 |
| Free-loading cream organic girlfriend | 01/08/16 |
| Turquoise provocative degenerate | 01/09/16 |
| Free-loading cream organic girlfriend | 01/10/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 01/18/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 01/19/16 |
| Turquoise provocative degenerate | 01/21/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 01/25/16 |
| Slap-happy Chrome State Partner | 01/25/16 |
| Offensive clear hell legal warrant | 01/25/16 |
| Slap-happy Chrome State Partner | 02/09/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 09/06/16 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 11/05/18 |
| aromatic know-it-all corner | 01/29/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 02/01/16 |
| fighting round eye | 02/01/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 02/01/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 02/07/16 |
| Blathering Electric Puppy Therapy | 02/09/16 |
| Heady underhanded pit | 02/09/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 02/20/16 |
| self-centered garrison candlestick maker | 02/20/16 |
| Amber Sadistic Clown | 02/24/16 |
| Lavender striped hyena | 02/24/16 |
| sable roast beef | 02/27/16 |
| Doobsian Geriatric Native Travel Guidebook | 03/09/16 |
| Orchid Bat-shit-crazy Orchestra Pit Digit Ratio | 03/15/16 |
| magenta concupiscible place of business | 03/15/16 |
| Slimy wine french chef point | 03/16/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Gay Station | 02/24/16 |
| topaz swashbuckling whorehouse | 02/24/16 |
| Slimy wine french chef point | 07/21/16 |
| Stimulating milk hissy fit | 02/24/16 |
| magenta concupiscible place of business | 02/27/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/02/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/04/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/09/16 |
| Blathering Electric Puppy Therapy | 03/09/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/15/16 |
| Amber Sadistic Clown | 03/15/16 |
| insecure affirmative action | 03/15/16 |
| razzle-dazzle snowy forum pistol | 03/15/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/16/16 |
| big idiotic doctorate | 03/16/16 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 03/23/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/23/16 |
| translucent haunting theatre | 03/26/16 |
| metal deranged gunner | 03/26/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/26/16 |
| Rambunctious thriller main people pozpig | 03/28/16 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 03/28/16 |
| Titillating Goyim Pervert | 03/28/16 |
| jet university | 08/12/16 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 11/05/18 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/28/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/29/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 03/29/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 03/29/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/29/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/29/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 04/01/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 04/04/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 04/15/16 |
| bonkers gaming laptop | 04/15/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 04/19/16 |
| internet-worthy cumskin prole | 04/20/16 |
| lime nubile generalized bond plaza | 04/20/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 04/24/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 04/25/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 04/26/16 |
| vengeful private investor address | 04/26/16 |
| galvanic nudist public bath | 04/30/16 |
| erotic glittery windowlicker scourge upon the earth | 05/01/16 |
| erotic glittery windowlicker scourge upon the earth | 11/07/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/02/16 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 05/02/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/03/16 |
| lilac field keepsake machete | 05/03/16 |
| overrated gaped theater toilet seat | 05/03/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/04/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 05/04/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/05/16 |
| Massive effete brunch headpube | 05/05/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 05/05/16 |
| topaz swashbuckling whorehouse | 05/05/16 |
| aqua selfie ceo | 05/18/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/18/16 |
| Amber Sadistic Clown | 05/18/16 |
| aqua selfie ceo | 05/18/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 05/29/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 06/20/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 06/29/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 07/14/16 |
| Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting | 07/15/16 |
| jet university | 07/15/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 07/17/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 07/17/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 07/21/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 07/22/16 |
| charismatic cuck | 07/22/16 |
| Judgmental antidepressant drug | 07/23/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 07/24/16 |
| henna excitant casino faggot firefighter | 07/25/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 07/25/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 07/27/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 08/05/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 08/09/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 08/12/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 08/12/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 08/12/16 |
| Peach cocky lay | 08/12/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 08/30/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 08/30/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 09/06/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 09/13/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 09/14/16 |
| Fragrant dull pisswyrm stag film | 09/14/16 |
| swollen arousing locale associate | 09/15/16 |
| Beady-eyed Sticky Property Fat Ankles | 09/15/16 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 09/15/16 |
| sickened wagecucks | 09/15/16 |
| copper rigpig | 09/15/16 |
| Milky school cafeteria | 09/19/16 |
| Milky school cafeteria | 09/19/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 09/27/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 09/24/16 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 09/27/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 09/27/16 |
| big idiotic doctorate | 09/27/16 |
| odious space volcanic crater | 10/08/16 |
| Outnumbered avocado meetinghouse psychic | 07/29/24 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 09/28/16 |
| Fragrant dull pisswyrm stag film | 09/28/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 09/28/16 |
| lime nubile generalized bond plaza | 09/28/16 |
| bonkers gaming laptop | 09/28/16 |
| Abnormal Temple | 10/08/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 10/09/16 |
| Magical Range | 10/09/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 10/09/16 |
| mauve frozen ape gas station | 10/09/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 10/10/16 |
| henna excitant casino faggot firefighter | 10/30/16 |
| jet university | 11/01/16 |
| sickened wagecucks | 11/01/16 |
| splenetic fanboi | 11/02/16 |
| navy embarrassed to the bone bawdyhouse | 11/02/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 11/07/16 |
| Lemon Zippy Hall | 11/08/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 11/08/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/08/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 11/08/16 |
| Khaki impressive trailer park | 11/08/16 |
| zombie-like 180 step-uncle's house | 11/08/16 |
| fighting round eye | 11/08/16 |
| Milky school cafeteria | 11/08/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/08/16 |
| Slippery fluffy chapel | 11/09/16 |
| swollen arousing locale associate | 11/09/16 |
| sooty learning disabled theater stage | 11/09/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| sickened wagecucks | 11/09/16 |
| Slippery fluffy chapel | 11/09/16 |
| henna excitant casino faggot firefighter | 11/09/16 |
| Massive effete brunch headpube | 11/09/16 |
| painfully honest marketing idea sweet tailpipe | 12/03/16 |
| black national | 12/07/16 |
| ungodly beta turdskin | 12/17/16 |
| umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot | 10/11/24 |
| Ultramarine Menage International Law Enforcement Agency | 11/09/16 |
| Hot Angry Yarmulke | 11/09/16 |
| vermilion drunken sandwich indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Fuchsia ladyboy corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| painfully honest marketing idea sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| jet university | 11/09/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| aqua selfie ceo | 11/09/16 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 11/09/16 |
| Histrionic center | 11/09/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| apoplectic grizzly house azn | 11/09/16 |
| Alcoholic business firm | 11/09/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| Mewling alpha | 11/09/16 |
| bisexual floppy juggernaut box office | 11/10/16 |
| Slap-happy Chrome State Partner | 11/10/16 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 11/10/16 |
| Hyperventilating buff feces crotch | 11/10/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/10/16 |
| stirring stage people who are hurt | 11/10/16 |
| self-centered garrison candlestick maker | 11/10/16 |
| Milky school cafeteria | 11/14/16 |
| Soggy giraffe | 11/14/16 |
| Bateful Tripping Becky | 12/04/16 |
| ungodly beta turdskin | 12/17/16 |
| umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot | 10/11/24 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/25/16 |
| charcoal duck-like athletic conference | 12/03/16 |
| mauve frozen ape gas station | 12/04/16 |
| bipolar knife | 12/07/16 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 12/07/16 |
| charcoal duck-like athletic conference | 12/07/16 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 01/02/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/02/17 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 01/02/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/02/17 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 03/03/20 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 01/02/17 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 01/16/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/20/17 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 01/20/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/23/17 |
| Abnormal Temple | 01/23/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/23/17 |
| Bronze Chest-beating Tattoo Rigor | 01/23/17 |
| Abnormal Temple | 01/23/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/23/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/25/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 01/26/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 02/06/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 02/13/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 02/27/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 05/03/17 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/03/17 |
| Trip submissive area mood | 09/21/17 |
| magenta concupiscible place of business | 01/23/17 |
| sickened wagecucks | 02/27/17 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 03/22/17 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 04/17/17 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/08/17 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 06/20/17 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 08/10/17 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 10/15/17 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 10/15/17 |
| Adventurous rusted ticket booth | 10/15/17 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/06/17 |
| cerebral stage | 11/06/17 |
| Glassy goal in life market | 11/08/17 |
| vivacious shaky resort weed whacker | 11/08/17 |
| Drab racy masturbator | 11/13/17 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 12/18/17 |
| Rebellious unhinged black woman | 12/18/17 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 12/18/17 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 01/30/18 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 06/01/18 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 07/18/18 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 07/19/18 |
| copper rigpig | 09/20/18 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 09/25/18 |
| Titillating Goyim Pervert | 10/06/18 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 10/06/18 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 10/25/18 |
| Beady-eyed Sticky Property Fat Ankles | 10/25/18 |
| Offensive clear hell legal warrant | 11/05/18 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 11/05/18 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 11/05/18 |
| Pontificating wild electric furnace | 11/05/18 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 01/08/19 |
| vigorous plum mediation abode | 02/23/19 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 03/13/19 |
| Offensive clear hell legal warrant | 06/24/19 |
| Dun impertinent school | 06/24/19 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 11/18/19 |
| sickened wagecucks | 02/12/20 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 02/12/20 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 03/24/20 |
| thirsty | 03/24/20 |
| Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting | 04/04/20 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 04/26/20 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 05/13/20 |
| Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting | 06/05/20 |
| Wonderful Sienna | 06/05/20 |
| Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting | 09/09/20 |
| sickened wagecucks | 09/09/20 |
| crusty multi-billionaire location | 09/09/20 |
| multi-colored | 09/12/20 |
| obsidian startled halford patrolman | 09/24/20 |
| Dun impertinent school | 10/09/20 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 10/10/20 |
| violent codepig | 10/22/20 |
| painfully honest marketing idea sweet tailpipe | 10/22/20 |
| buck-toothed jewess | 10/22/20 |
| buck-toothed jewess | 10/22/20 |
| diverse gold | 03/23/22 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 10/27/20 |
| rose supple set immigrant | 10/27/20 |
| Dun impertinent school | 10/30/20 |
| Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza | 11/03/20 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/22/22 |
| Sick Mental Disorder | 03/23/22 |
| orange | 03/23/22 |
| Carmine dog poop | 03/23/22 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 07/25/22 |
| crusty multi-billionaire location | 07/25/22 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 10/23/22 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 11/16/22 |
| Sinister heaven boltzmann | 04/25/23 |
| aqua selfie ceo | 04/25/23 |
| obsidian startled halford patrolman | 04/29/23 |
| Outnumbered avocado meetinghouse psychic | 05/28/23 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 02/22/24 |
| obsidian startled halford patrolman | 02/23/24 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 05/23/24 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 08/26/24 |
| obsidian startled halford patrolman | 09/13/24 |
| crusty multi-billionaire location | 09/13/24 |
| obsidian startled halford patrolman | 10/18/24 |
| umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot | 10/11/24 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 11/06/24 |
| Massive effete brunch headpube | 03/04/25 |
| Massive effete brunch headpube | 03/04/25 |
| copper rigpig | 03/04/25 |
| umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot | 03/04/25 |
| House-broken Razzmatazz Toaster | 03/04/25 |
| tan laughsome party of the first part | 03/05/25 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/07/25 |
| silver chad water buffalo | 03/07/25 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/08/25 |
| Fantasy-prone Pink | 03/08/25 |
| useless irradiated national security agency institution | 03/08/25 |
| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: marvelous bat shit crazy stead pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Big-titted police squad 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Citrine frisky laser beams liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: scarlet cruise ship "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: crusty multi-billionaire location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Titillating Goyim Pervert 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: magenta concupiscible place of business 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Mewling alpha Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Mind-boggling Disturbing Stain Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Purple home stock car FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: big idiotic doctorate Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Federal very tactful idiot sanctuary Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Pale Parlour Mad Cow Disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Soul-stirring senate faggotry Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Coral Den Nibblets Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: mint church sex offender Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: medicated mildly autistic deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: talented locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Yapping Razzle Crackhouse 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Pale Parlour Mad Cow Disease November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Carnelian motley office ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Offensive clear hell legal warrant Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: black national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: aqua selfie ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Indecent tank dysfunction lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: sepia rehab March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Iridescent half-breed kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Free-loading cream organic girlfriend 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Fragrant dull pisswyrm stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: curious ruddy library shitlib lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: translucent haunting theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Massive effete brunch headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: mentally impaired tanning salon Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Hyperactive Narrow-minded Circlehead Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: big idiotic doctorate OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: big idiotic doctorate And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Doobsian Geriatric Native Travel Guidebook 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Slimy wine french chef point fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Garnet principal's office I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: navy embarrassed to the bone bawdyhouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: dashing hairless old irish cottage February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: hairraiser twinkling nowag You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Rambunctious thriller main people pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Offensive clear hell legal warrant Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: ungodly beta turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Amber Sadistic Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: jet university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: chestnut site Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: buck-toothed jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Flickering philosopher-king dilemma This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: contagious persian shrine 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: high-end passionate lodge gay wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: unholy elite parlor sound barrier Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Turquoise provocative degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: bisexual floppy juggernaut box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Free-loading cream organic girlfriend 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: mint church sex offender flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Offensive clear hell legal warrant Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Turquoise provocative degenerate From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Blathering Electric Puppy Therapy 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Sapphire church building bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: spectacular indirect expression nursing home An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Cruel-hearted legend base 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: spectacular indirect expression nursing home I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: spectacular indirect expression nursing home Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Cruel-hearted legend base No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: jet university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Free-loading cream organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Free-loading cream organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Turquoise provocative degenerate http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Free-loading cream organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Turquoise provocative degenerate looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Slap-happy Chrome State Partner 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Offensive clear hell legal warrant You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Slap-happy Chrome State Partner No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: aromatic know-it-all corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: fighting round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Blathering Electric Puppy Therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Heady underhanded pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: self-centered garrison candlestick maker OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Amber Sadistic Clown PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Lavender striped hyena The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: sable roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Doobsian Geriatric Native Travel Guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Orchid Bat-shit-crazy Orchestra Pit Digit Ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: magenta concupiscible place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Slimy wine french chef point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Gay Station hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: topaz swashbuckling whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Slimy wine french chef point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Stimulating milk hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: magenta concupiscible place of business (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Blathering Electric Puppy Therapy yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Amber Sadistic Clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: insecure affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: razzle-dazzle snowy forum pistol truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: big idiotic doctorate March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: translucent haunting theatre http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: metal deranged gunner Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Rambunctious thriller main people pozpig jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Titillating Goyim Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: jet university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: bonkers gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: internet-worthy cumskin prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: lime nubile generalized bond plaza I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: vengeful private investor address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: galvanic nudist public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: erotic glittery windowlicker scourge upon the earth Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: erotic glittery windowlicker scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: lilac field keepsake machete holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: overrated gaped theater toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Massive effete brunch headpube Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: topaz swashbuckling whorehouse Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: aqua selfie ceo This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Amber Sadistic Clown In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: aqua selfie ceo cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: jet university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: charismatic cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Judgmental antidepressant drug Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: henna excitant casino faggot firefighter Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Peach cocky lay LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Fragrant dull pisswyrm stag film Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: swollen arousing locale associate September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Beady-eyed Sticky Property Fat Ankles September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: sickened wagecucks XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: copper rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Milky school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Milky school cafeteria The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: big idiotic doctorate This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: odious space volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Outnumbered avocado meetinghouse psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Fragrant dull pisswyrm stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: lime nubile generalized bond plaza This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: bonkers gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Abnormal Temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Magical Range Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: mauve frozen ape gas station half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: henna excitant casino faggot firefighter close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: jet university Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: sickened wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: splenetic fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: navy embarrassed to the bone bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Lemon Zippy Hall You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Khaki impressive trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: zombie-like 180 step-uncle's house Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: fighting round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Milky school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Slippery fluffy chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: swollen arousing locale associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: sooty learning disabled theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: sickened wagecucks GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Slippery fluffy chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: henna excitant casino faggot firefighter it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Massive effete brunch headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: painfully honest marketing idea sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: black national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: ungodly beta turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Ultramarine Menage International Law Enforcement Agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Hot Angry Yarmulke Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: vermilion drunken sandwich indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Fuchsia ladyboy corn cake 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: painfully honest marketing idea sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: jet university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: aqua selfie ceo this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Histrionic center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: apoplectic grizzly house azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Alcoholic business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Mewling alpha you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: bisexual floppy juggernaut box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Slap-happy Chrome State Partner Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Hyperventilating buff feces crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: stirring stage people who are hurt ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: self-centered garrison candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Milky school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Soggy giraffe They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Bateful Tripping Becky Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: ungodly beta turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: charcoal duck-like athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: mauve frozen ape gas station GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: bipolar knife https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: charcoal duck-like athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Abnormal Temple TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Bronze Chest-beating Tattoo Rigor I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Abnormal Temple it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Trip submissive area mood https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: magenta concupiscible place of business this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: sickened wagecucks One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Adventurous rusted ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: cerebral stage credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Glassy goal in life market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: vivacious shaky resort weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Drab racy masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Rebellious unhinged black woman Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: copper rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Titillating Goyim Pervert It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Beady-eyed Sticky Property Fat Ankles Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Offensive clear hell legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Pontificating wild electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: vigorous plum mediation abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Offensive clear hell legal warrant There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Dun impertinent school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: sickened wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: thirsty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Wonderful Sienna (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Disrespectful comical hospital famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: sickened wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: crusty multi-billionaire location Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: multi-colored (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: obsidian startled halford patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Dun impertinent school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: violent codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: painfully honest marketing idea sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: buck-toothed jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: buck-toothed jewess https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: diverse gold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: rose supple set immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Dun impertinent school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Red Misunderstood Trust Fund Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Sick Mental Disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: orange (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Carmine dog poop 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: crusty multi-billionaire location A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Sinister heaven boltzmann https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: aqua selfie ceo why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: obsidian startled halford patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Outnumbered avocado meetinghouse psychic FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: obsidian startled halford patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: obsidian startled halford patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: crusty multi-billionaire location One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: obsidian startled halford patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Massive effete brunch headpube 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Massive effete brunch headpube https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: copper rigpig Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: umber fiercely-loyal sneaky criminal spot The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: House-broken Razzmatazz Toaster He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: tan laughsome party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: silver chad water buffalo 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Fantasy-prone Pink Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: useless irradiated national security agency institution Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310752#49679495) |