PA > red, NC > blue is a very real possibility
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 30th, 2024 12:33 PM
Author: ,,,,.....,,,,...,........,,,.....,,...,...
Lib meltdown alert
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864",#48146220) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:41 PM Author: MASE
Look more and more likely:
-Trump has led the last several polls in PA and according to Baris both Trump and Harris internals show him up by several points there
-Most accurate 2020 pollster AtlasIntel has him leading by 4(!) in Michigan while Elissa Slotkin was panicking over zoom this weekend that Harris's internals have her underwater there
-Wisconsin is reliably the most red blue wall state and likely will not vote to the left of either PA or MI.
-Trump leads Arizona bigly
I still think he'll win GA and NC too, but lmao
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864",#48146251) |
Date: September 30th, 2024 12:39 PM Author: wap
That NC is in play is a disaster for Trump. In any race where one side has much better on the ground resources and more money an expanding map is always a huge advantage. But the EC math of any chance that NC is in play makes it such an inside straight for Trump, like he has to win 6 straight coin flips if he loses NC or GA, and if she also takes Mich it becomes such a narrow path to victory for Trump.
Senate is also SPS compared to where it should be. MD, NV and AZ should all be close or GOP advantage and instead GOP is having to spend money in super expensive media markets to defend TX and FL. This cycle feels more and more like the moment when the chickens come home to roost for Trump’s tendency toward valuing loyalty and deference over competence.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864",#48146243) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 5:04 PM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad
By September of the respective years:
1992: Clinton was going to win, never a nail biter. Perot took away the R voters from Bush and economy was in a funk.
1996: Everyone knew Clinton was winning all year long and he won solidly.
2000: this was a nail biter.
2004: nail biter that ended up breaking for Bush more than expected. Media messaging making it look closer than it really was? Who knows.
2008: Obama won handily, everyone knew months in advance he was going to win, following a deeply hated Bush. McCain was always the underdog and only had a few moments when he looked like he might catch up. Not a nail biter.
2012: Obama won handily again. No nail biter. Romney was doomed no matter how well he debated.
2016: Whole world went to bed on 2016 assuming HRC was the new president. It shocked everyone Trump won. Even Trump himself admitted it. He did lose the popular vote and before this election everyone assumed pop vote winner would win the EC. 2000 was seen as the exception not to be repeated.
2020: Not a nail biter. Biden assumed a 52% lead at beginning of year and won with 52% of the vote. There was hope that Trump could eke it out in the EC but that was just that, hope.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864",#48147265) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 6:55 PM Author: wap
Objection, nonresponsive. Also poor RC pwn3d: “Clinton was going to win, never a nail biter. Perot took away the R voters from Bush and economy was in a funk.” See in my post where I stipulate that Perot is assassinated in spring of 1992 and it’s Clinton v Bush 41 heads up. Calls for speculation, obviously, but Bush lost by 5.5% nationally and Perot got over 18%. Could’ve been another GOP blowout and the best case for Clinton in a heads up 1992 election was a close race. Clinton won half his states with sub 45% of the electorate, and it’s very likely Bush 41 could’ve put 102 more EVs into play but for Perot. Dole is a tough argument, but if there’s no Perot for that whole cycle the entire GOP primary would have been different, and a stronger heads up candidate could’ve beaten Clinton and Dole could’ve made it much closer. The point you’re missing is that heads up races with no Perot in 1992 and 1996 are both likely very close.
2000: swing states split evenly. Bush wins NH by 7k votes, FL by 523*, NV by 22k, Gore wins NM by 366, Iowa by 4K, Oregon by 6800.
2004: swing states split evenly again. Kerry wins NH by less than 10k, Oregon by 66k, Wisconsin by 10k, Bush wins NM by less than 6k and Colorado and Ohio by about 100k each.
2016: decided by 80k votes across PA, Wisc and Mich, Trump also loses NH, Maine and Nevada by slightly more than 50k votes across all three states.
2020: Biden wins a series of very close races in the swing states, basically every close state other than NC, that are an anomaly when compared with the results of every other post-Reagan/non-Obama POTUS race.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864",#48147652) |
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