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PA > red, NC > blue is a very real possibility
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:20 PM Author: bip (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146158) |
Date: September 30th, 2024 12:33 PM Author: ,,,,.....,,,,...,........,,,.....,,...,... Lib meltdown alert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146220) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:34 PM Author: MASE How mad are libs going to be when this is the map? https://www.270towin.com/maps/9ddAg |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:36 PM Author: lex I can’t imagine they’re going to like that much (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146231) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:41 PM Author: MASE Look more and more likely: -Trump has led the last several polls in PA and according to Baris both Trump and Harris internals show him up by several points there -Most accurate 2020 pollster AtlasIntel has him leading by 4(!) in Michigan while Elissa Slotkin was panicking over zoom this weekend that Harris's internals have her underwater there -Wisconsin is reliably the most red blue wall state and likely will not vote to the left of either PA or MI. -Trump leads Arizona bigly
I still think he'll win GA and NC too, but lmao |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:39 PM Author: wap That NC is in play is a disaster for Trump. In any race where one side has much better on the ground resources and more money an expanding map is always a huge advantage. But the EC math of any chance that NC is in play makes it such an inside straight for Trump, like he has to win 6 straight coin flips if he loses NC or GA, and if she also takes Mich it becomes such a narrow path to victory for Trump.
Senate is also SPS compared to where it should be. MD, NV and AZ should all be close or GOP advantage and instead GOP is having to spend money in super expensive media markets to defend TX and FL. This cycle feels more and more like the moment when the chickens come home to roost for Trump’s tendency toward valuing loyalty and deference over competence. |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:42 PM Author: "'''''"'''"""''''" I just don’t see Kamala doing better in NC than Biden did. Who are the voters who would vote for her but wouldn’t vote for him? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146255) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:49 PM Author: wap It was decided by 70k votes in 2020 and just the demographics of the last four years would mean that it’s a toss up if both sides got 100% of their 2020 voters. It’s likely as much or more a function of voters who voted for Trump in 2020 who will not again in 2024, ie Haley got 25% of the primary vote in the first week of May two months after the race was decided (admittedly 90+% of those were likely 2020 Biden votes). To be safe Trump has to add non-college non-white votes, likely under 40, and he will have a harder time doing that with no GOTV and a dumpster fire candidate at the top of the statewide ticket. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146302) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:52 PM Author: bip You are a mentally retarded Jewish pedophile (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146311) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:56 PM Author: wap (guy looking in a mirror and talking to himself) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146334) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:49 PM Author: bip I really hate the people who say that a candidate has to win 6 straight coin flips as if in most election years the winning candidate doesn't pick up most of the swing states. Didn't Trump and Biden both win 300+ EVs? You sound like such a midwit when you act like the election is going state to state and flipping a coin and that the best thing you can do is permanently blue pill a purple state so you think you will win indefinitely. No. It doesn't work like that. Colorado goes blue, Ohio goes red. It's a never ending tit for tat. A door closes another opens up. Politics is always realigning. God you people are severely retarded and mentally ill (and not in some cool way). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146299) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:56 PM Author: wap What a weird little hissy fit lol. I mean, odds are that Mich and Wisc both go the same way, though it’s not at all guaranteed. Does that necessarily mean AZ and NV will also go the same way, or even just PA? Of course not. Every election this century not involving Obama has come down to a set of extremely close races in a few swing states that were decided by less than 1% of the votes cast. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146321) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:58 PM Author: MASE Swing states usually break 7-0 or 6-1, rarely they break 5-2. Never do they break 4-3. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146342) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 12:59 PM Author: bip Itsh like sixth consthecutive coin flipths! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146349) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 4:20 PM Author: Candy Ride (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48147130) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 2:26 PM Author: wap You don't say? Remind me, how did they break in 2000 and 2004? If Perot got assassinated in the spring of 1992 we would be looking at 7/9 elections that were coin flip elections since the median aged mid 40s poster was a preteen. It’s insane how you Trumpmos feel entitled to always get as lucky as Trump got in 2016 and how anything other than drawing to the inside straight is inconceivable and obvious fraud. I sincerely hope none of you ever attempt to play poker for any significant amount of money. I can’t imagine the meltdowns and attempts to violently assault the dealer that would follow you losing 90% of the time and blaming any bullshit cause you can think of instead of your own shitty play and poor command of statistics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146742) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 5:04 PM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad By September of the respective years:
1992: Clinton was going to win, never a nail biter. Perot took away the R voters from Bush and economy was in a funk.
1996: Everyone knew Clinton was winning all year long and he won solidly.
2000: this was a nail biter.
2004: nail biter that ended up breaking for Bush more than expected. Media messaging making it look closer than it really was? Who knows.
2008: Obama won handily, everyone knew months in advance he was going to win, following a deeply hated Bush. McCain was always the underdog and only had a few moments when he looked like he might catch up. Not a nail biter.
2012: Obama won handily again. No nail biter. Romney was doomed no matter how well he debated.
2016: Whole world went to bed on 2016 assuming HRC was the new president. It shocked everyone Trump won. Even Trump himself admitted it. He did lose the popular vote and before this election everyone assumed pop vote winner would win the EC. 2000 was seen as the exception not to be repeated.
2020: Not a nail biter. Biden assumed a 52% lead at beginning of year and won with 52% of the vote. There was hope that Trump could eke it out in the EC but that was just that, hope. |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 5:58 PM Author: bip This is disturbingly accurate. Can't refute any of it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48147470) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 6:55 PM Author: wap Objection, nonresponsive. Also poor RC pwn3d: “Clinton was going to win, never a nail biter. Perot took away the R voters from Bush and economy was in a funk.” See in my post where I stipulate that Perot is assassinated in spring of 1992 and it’s Clinton v Bush 41 heads up. Calls for speculation, obviously, but Bush lost by 5.5% nationally and Perot got over 18%. Could’ve been another GOP blowout and the best case for Clinton in a heads up 1992 election was a close race. Clinton won half his states with sub 45% of the electorate, and it’s very likely Bush 41 could’ve put 102 more EVs into play but for Perot. Dole is a tough argument, but if there’s no Perot for that whole cycle the entire GOP primary would have been different, and a stronger heads up candidate could’ve beaten Clinton and Dole could’ve made it much closer. The point you’re missing is that heads up races with no Perot in 1992 and 1996 are both likely very close.
2000: swing states split evenly. Bush wins NH by 7k votes, FL by 523*, NV by 22k, Gore wins NM by 366, Iowa by 4K, Oregon by 6800.
2004: swing states split evenly again. Kerry wins NH by less than 10k, Oregon by 66k, Wisconsin by 10k, Bush wins NM by less than 6k and Colorado and Ohio by about 100k each.
2016: decided by 80k votes across PA, Wisc and Mich, Trump also loses NH, Maine and Nevada by slightly more than 50k votes across all three states.
2020: Biden wins a series of very close races in the swing states, basically every close state other than NC, that are an anomaly when compared with the results of every other post-Reagan/non-Obama POTUS race. |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 7:36 PM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad Cherry picking. I lived through all these elections. The consensus on who the winner was going to be was in place by August/September of the year for most of these elections, and quite often much earlier. Arguing over this swing state or that swing state is meaningless. The population didn't think in terms of EC, only policy wonks did. 2016/2020 changed the whole attitude towards the EC and redefined the meaning of a nail biter. If you'd told people in 1992 or 2000 or even 2012 that a candidate could win the pop vote by 7+ million people but still lose the EC and the presidency to the opponent, people would guffawed and said "yeah sure, in theory, it could happen, but let's not waste our time talking about something that won't happen."
America was a fundamentally different place pre 2016 in attitudes towards election (remember when we all voted on the same day?) that talking of past "nail biters" is apples and oranges. Polling was also polling a very different population. The disastrous polling of 2020 and substantial underpolling of Republican voters was unthinkable in earlier elections.
But I will agree that this year is a nail biter. Despite the optimism of some on here, we do not know what will happen this November.
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Date: September 30th, 2024 1:05 PM Author: Alien vs Predator vs Brown vs Board of Education Lots of west coast shitlibs and northeastern faggots have moved here since 2020. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146370) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 2:30 PM Author: '"''"'"'''""" (oppose bitch bois) Americans don't like bitch bois, why not just nominate a candidate who's NOT a bitch boi? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146756) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 2:32 PM Author: but at what cost it's only in play because of that degenerate nigger who was suckin ass juices out of African hookers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48146766) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 6:57 PM Author: wap I think if Trump said fewer retarded things on a daily basis and didn’t flagrantly cheat on his wife and generally act like a terrible person all the time it might also help his chances in NC, but fair point nonetheless. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48147656) |
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Date: September 30th, 2024 4:26 PM Author: excellent poaster *pushes up glasses* (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5603764&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310864#48147156) |