The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Prediction: the US will take these islands, not Kharg Island - link
Poast new message in this thread
Date: March 21st, 2026 8:56 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Musa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_and_Lesser_Tunbs
Seems like those islands would be a prime target for any U.S. Marine Corps operations- UAE already claims sovereignty over them, they have airports, are very strategically located and outside of artillery range from Iran.
These islands will be much easier for the US to take than Kharg Island and much less likely to elicit an attack on the Qatar LNG. If we have control over them, we can set up bases to make it much harder for Ukraine (edit: Iran) to assert control over the Strait. |
Date: March 21st, 2026 8:58 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate Iran definitely worried about it:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/iran-warn-uae-disputed-islands-abu-musa-greater-tunb-6008571 |
|
Date: March 21st, 2026 9:12 AM Author: autistic low-t juggernaut u wld think after getting their ass pounded in by shoeless talibana and nigga houthis US birdshits wld learn to STFU abt mideast wars but i see on X they are thinking JUST TAKE THIS ISLAND AND IRAN WILL GIVE UP!
rofl no matter which island u take there's really no way for iran to fire a missile at it, right birdshits? no way for them to lay traps and ambushes, right birdshits?
and how do u even get the marines there? u cant send ships thru the persian gulf so by air? well u have to supply them, just 3k troops require some ridiculous amount like 20 tons of supplies a day
its just embarassing how stupid amerishits are, it really is |
 |
Date: March 21st, 2026 9:20 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate This ain't Guadalcanal, dummy. Look at the map- Abu Musa is 25 miles away from the nation - UAE - which claims it as its sovereign territory. Kharg Island might, in fact, have some difficult resupply issues since it's deep into the Persian Gulf. That's a big reason I'm predicting we will go for this low-hanging fruit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49758935) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 1:08 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2036091526258823439?s=20
It's a burden being right so often, but I'm prepared to shoulder it. |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 3:52 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://x.com/MT_Anderson/status/2036167054848618700 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49763118) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 3:54 PM Author: medicated coldplay fan > If we have control over them, we can set up bases to make it much harder for Ukraine to assert control over the Strait.
🤔 |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 3:55 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate Freudian slip? It's technically true at any rate. :) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49763123) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 4:09 PM Author: Salmon self-centered office bbw Bets on Iran's response if naval boats arrive laden with troops? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49763146) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 4:11 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate I think their response will be solely with drones and missiles. But that's a lot in today's day and age. They forced us to abandon our embassies in the region with those tactics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49763150) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 4:16 PM Author: Cowardly Maniacal Library Double Fault this defense analyst firm estimates taking Kharg Island would result in 200-500 US casualties:
“Risk modeling employs a Poisson process for attack frequency: λ = 15 major incidents per month (based on Iran’s documented drone/missile capacity and proxy networks). Probability of at least one U.S. base strike in the first 30 days is 1−e−λ ≈ 99.99%. Casualty modeling (binomial distribution, n = 50 potential strikes, success probability per strike 0.20 from defensive intercepts) yields expected U.S./allied deaths of 200–500 in month one, scaling with escalation intensity.”
https://www.indrastra.com/2026/03/the-kharg-island-gamble-probabilistic.html?m=1 |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 5:48 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://x.com/i/status/2036196696791957564 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49763393) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2026 6:25 PM Author: Cowardly Maniacal Library Double Fault let’s assume we take those island. Why would Iran then cease firing at ships trying to cross Hormuz? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49763495) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2026 3:57 PM Author: autistic low-t juggernaut sorry u hate amerikkkan and freedom (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49765831) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 9:43 AM Author: Cowardly Maniacal Library Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770130) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2026 4:13 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate They won't - it's not a panacea. But every tanker in the Gulf will have to pass between islands that we control, so that gives us a lot of leverage of our own. Right now our carriers are hundreds of miles away out of fear of Chinese anti-ship missiles. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49765868) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2026 3:31 PM Author: talking alpha counterpoint: trump really likes the name Kharg
https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036460598444044380 |
|
Date: March 24th, 2026 3:50 PM Author: Pea-brained Place Of Business Lay it's very common for demented people to get super obsessed with something from their distant past. in trump's case, it's this animus with iran and his lunacy is enabled by his kike handlers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49765810) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2026 4:54 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate I'm planning to canoe into Abu Musa myself this weekend to check out the situation. Make sure I'm giving you guys good info. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49765949) |
|
Date: March 25th, 2026 1:59 PM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://x.com/intelFromBrian/status/2036864810806399102?s=20
Likely UAE. If they mean Kuwait, we probably are after Kharg. |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 8:35 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2037136985916400028?s=20 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770020) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 9:49 AM Author: Cowardly Maniacal Library Double Fault Doesn’t make sense. If the US just wanted to disrupt Iran’s use of the island they could just threaten to shoot at any tankers that dock there. If the US wants to operate the island itself, Iran could just stop pumping oil to the island from the mainland. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770138) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 10:05 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate Yeah, taking Kharg Island makes no sense, and I suspect it's only Trump's instinctive desire to "take the oil" that makes it a subject of discussion. As you stated, there's only oil there if Iran sends it to the island. Another weakness of taking Kharg is that Iran already went through a two year period several years ago where sanctions were so effective that they exported almost no oil. Yet the regime didn't collapse. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770169) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 10:39 AM Author: Cowardly Maniacal Library Double Fault In three weeks he’ll blame the generals for not taking into account that Iran could just stop sending oil to the island (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770231) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 11:00 AM Author: Charismatic chrome marketing idea I think the island talk and the troop deployments are flame. Even the focus on the straight is theater. I heard a naval Intel guy on a podcast mentioning that most of the boats hit (at least initially) were actually struck well into the red sea. Instead of any military action, this guy said you place a US embargo on any vessel visiting Iran. The US can enforce this anywhere on the ocean. He also thought the marine deployments were likely a contingency against possible strikes by rebel factions within currently friendly nations in the region. But who knows. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770271) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 11:19 AM Author: Cowardly Maniacal Library Double Fault Date: March 26th, 2026 11:00 AM Author: gibberish (?)
I think the island talk and the troop deployments are flame. Even the focus on the straight is theater. I heard a naval Intel guy on a podcast mentioning that most of the boats hit (at least initially) were actually struck well into the red sea. Instead of any military action, this guy said you place a US embargo on any vessel visiting Iran. The US can enforce this anywhere on the ocean. He also thought the marine deployments were likely a contingency against possible strikes by rebel factions within currently friendly nations in the region. But who knows. |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 11:24 AM Author: Charismatic chrome marketing idea Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770328) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2026 11:03 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://x.com/hahellyer/status/2034605794809839712 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49770274) |
|
Date: March 27th, 2026 9:21 AM Author: Charismatic chrome marketing idea https://x.com/Vertaris21/status/2037515286513864938?s=20
That swing set looks amazing. |
|
Date: March 27th, 2026 8:27 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate https://x.com/Vertaris21/status/2037505522723618952 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49773115) |
|
Date: March 27th, 2026 8:31 AM Author: Vivacious mischievous school cafeteria elastic band We're taking Kharg Island and turning it into Little St James 2.0 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49773118) |
|
Date: March 27th, 2026 8:33 AM Author: bat shit crazy arrogant den pistol I like forward to staying at Kharg Island Trump Towers & Casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49773119) |
|
Date: March 27th, 2026 9:03 AM Author: autistic low-t juggernaut next to the Trump Kharg Island Holocaust Centre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49773164) |
|
Date: March 27th, 2026 10:01 AM Author: Aggressive Doctorate LOL at Khargmos. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49773266) |
|
Date: March 31st, 2026 9:14 PM Author: German pumo https://x.com/JoumannaTV/status/2039149066387628215 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49784822) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2026 8:58 PM Author: Forced Bi Cuckold of Hormuz wow amazing link (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5848168&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310894#49787585) |