At some point in the next 6 years--you don't know exactly when--your primary residence will catch on fire overnight. It will be a night you are home and a time you are asleep. You must spend at least 183 nights per year in your primary residence so you can't outrun this or finagle the fire onto a certain night.

No smoke alarms, etc., will go off until the fire is sufficiently large that a standard home fire extinguisher could not put it out. Once the fire reaches that point, your normal systems (e.g., smoke detector) will engage and might wake you.

You may keep your current smoke alarms, home alarm system, etc. and keep them up to date. You may not install any new fire warning or suppression systems.

Do you accept?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49603823)

Would you make any changes in your life? Like get your valuables out of your house?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49603931)

Does that change your answer? Are you in?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49603927)

id just make sure any unreplacables are in storage or fireproof safes. my gf and dogs always sleep in the bedroom, and id just make sure window egress is possible. my bedroom is on the first floor so mb that makes the typo easier, but even if it wasnt id just make sure window egress is easy. install fire escape ladders on all second story rooms. if i have kids in the interim ill make sure i have entry into their room through my bedroom.

mb my gf thinks im a neurotic faggot for being mister fire safety guy, but one of my bffs houses burnt down so i have a plausible justification she'll tolerate. plus once the house does burn down ill be a cassandra proven right. and on top of the $10m i can really juice up the fire insurance value. the hardest part of this hypo is thinking about how i can maximize the inevitable insurance claim without drawing suspicion its jewish lightning.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49603874)

And what if the fire is located between your room and your hypothetical children's rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49603935)

im not planning on trying for kids for at least a year, so the oldest one could be is like 4. for the first couple years i could just be a neurotic parent and have them sleep in our room or an adjoining one. also, since you set a time limit on this ill know likelihood of the fire of damacles happening. if we get to year 5 id invent some reason I'm always up late and active. become a mole person who sleeps in the afternoon while gf is awake.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604033)

Was she the type of person to act carelessly?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604565)

Doable for 6 years imho. Fuck your wife in a hotel room (assuming 40+ year olds still fuck). $10M is life-changing money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604084)

NFPA data groups one-family (single-family) and two-family (duplex) dwellings together, as two-family structures represent a small share of incidents. Single-family homes make up the vast majority of these, with historical trends showing death rates of around 7.6 per million residents in single-family homes (compared to much lower rates in multifamily buildings).

For context:

Total U.S. civilian fire deaths in 2024: ~3,910.

Preliminary media reports for 2025 (through December 23) noted ~2,070 home fire deaths overall, but full NFPA analysis for 2025 won't be available until late 2026.

Sources: NFPA's Fire Loss in the United States During 2024 report (published October 2025).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604321)

These "reported" fires refer to significant incidents requiring a fire department response, aligning with "significant/substantial" fires (minor events like small kitchen flare-ups are typically handled without calling firefighters and aren't included in NFPA counts).

So it seems like the odds are probably more like 5-15 percent for a fire of the size required by OP.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604344)

Plus in the hypo you KNOW the fire is coming and can sleep close to a first story window. Your average normal every day fag has no reason to be that cautious and no idea a fire is headed their way. EZ MONEY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604473)

i wonder what % of total-loss, completely random fires in umc homes result in a fatality?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604577)

Being able to move the kids out makes this easy imo. Sleep on the ground floor with the dog in the room and the door closed. Kids and wife living elsewhere until fire, $10M, go to Vegas put it all on black, $20M and set for life.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5824317&forum_id=2\u0026mark_id=5310901#49604392)